The Core and its flaw, imo.

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Marner, Nylander and Matthews are gold! The problem is Tavares, he is not a top 6 forward at this point in his career and at the $11M cap hit… that is sinking the team.

Goaltending is B level and the D is soft. This team is poorly constructed and will not win.

Matthews and Nylander are both UFA’s in 2 seasons. They are both going to leave. I don’t see any Scenario where they stay. A rebuild is closer than some like to admit.
 
Marner, Nylander and Matthews are gold! The problem is Tavares, he is not a top 6 forward at this point in his career and at the $11M cap hit… that is sinking the team.

Goaltending is B level and the D is soft. This team is poorly constructed and will not win.

Matthews and Nylander are both UFA’s in 2 seasons. They are both going to leave. I don’t see any Scenario where they stay. A rebuild is closer than some like to admit.

Give me a break. Seriously.
 
Again, not sure what an "expected cup" is, or where you got that idea. Seems you're not really understanding what these "expected" metrics are about.

It’s just an expansion of expected goals. It means just as much.

No, previous versions of this team did lose to tied-in-points-with-us-and-best-defensive-team-in-the-league Columbus and cup-finalist Montreal in the maximum number of games while missing key players, but the media has certainly played a significant part in propagating reasons for those losses that are false. And as we can see by this thread, it's been eaten up by some fans.

No, they were bad teams. Without covid-adjusted playoff formats, neither Columbus nor Montreal even qualify.
 
Shanahan and Dubas have blinders on when it comes to the physical side of hockey and it is ruining what should have been a golden era for the Leafs. Instead of learning from 5 years of failure they instead doubled down again with this years version of the team being told they don't even have to hit on dump-ins lol. It's just looney, and it's the biggest reason that 5 years later their young stars are still not comfortable with playoff hockey.
 
Shanahan and Dubas have blinders on when it comes to the physical side of hockey and it is ruining what should have been a golden era for the Leafs. Instead of learning from 5 years of failure they instead doubled down again with this years version of the team being told they don't even have to hit on dump-ins lol. It's just looney, and it's the biggest reason that 5 years later their young stars are still not comfortable with playoff hockey.

I guess they think they'll develop that "killer instinct" and learn how to stick up for eachother. Or so they put out there.
Not in their DNA in my mind
 
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We've seen them pushback and get involved in scrums though. The only thing we haven't really seen is them throwing punches, which we shouldn't want to see. It wouldn't do anything other than put our best players at risk of injury.
Yep, but we've also seen them stand around and not protect each other. Or let their captain get roughed up while just watching. We both agree we dont want them fighting.....but although it sends a message that this doesnt bother them Id rather pushback than getting ragdolled and smiling/laughing
 
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thats an overreaction based on the last month. I think Soup is an average goalie. The last season and a half he’s shown he can play, just not at a high level consistently. To me that’s an average goalie at least.
Ok, won't debate average vs not quite , but in any regard, not technical enough to be consistent. Relies on instinct....not good enough. Since our Def cannot control our zone consistently, he is unacceptable if you want to win.
 
A lot of our players have played well this year but are just not the right style of player in the bottom of our line up. Mikheyev, Engvall, Kerfoot, Dermott, Holl, Mrazek are all the wrong type of players for this team, and should all be moved for assets either at the deadline or in the offseason. The cap from these players along with Marlies graduates should allow the leafs to change the team dynamic. Also if Keefe can't get it done this playoffs we should go after another coach. Maybe trotz if the islanders part ways with him.
 
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I mean, top 7 isn't top 3, but it's also not the top third of the league, and that's a heck of a lot of things to be somewhere between #1 and #7 in. This is also directly after a rough patch - we are or have been top-5 in a lot of them for a large portion of the season. I'm not sure why you think only 3 teams have a legitimate shot at the cup.

Alright, so 22% of the league are "big contenders". I guess you could make that argument, I just don't agree with it. I typically view the top 3 teams as the biggest contenders for post season success. Not sure why I have to justify that, just seems logical. Our "rough patch" is inconsequential, considering lots of the top teams have had rough patches, non have seemed to stretch as long as ours, which in and of itself should be indicative of something...
 
Listen, the team was poorly constructed. The cap allotment is too top heavy. Dubas is willing to risk his job on the core, and he eventually pay the price for his stubbornness.

That is not what I'm suggesting. Unless the core is unable to offer the pushback I see lacking. This team has talent and depth, what they are missing is cohesion and a sense of team. Leaders need to lead.

Dubas f***ed this team by wasting 11m on JT .

Pre Covid, JT was a serious candidate for the Canadian Olympic team, JT was playing very well. He, and this is a guess, is dealing with post Covid lung issues.

Core is fine. We have the same problem Tampa had. The rest of the team gets bullied by the playoff depth of other teams. If Matthews and Marner have to do all the scoring and be the most grittiest guys (Matthews) we already lost.

We need players to wear the opponent down when the big 4 are on the bench. That's it. (And goaltending maybe :help:).

It's not a cap issue. 2 of our big 4 can compete with each other for the selke as well people don't understand the advantage we have with these guys over the boring parity riddled NHL Management for whatever reason tries to fill the bottom 6 with "lite" versions of the core 4. Guys like Mik who wish they were high flying in the top 6 and Engvall doing spin backs and stick handling east-west (with zero puck protection, you or me can go poke that thing off his stick) like he's Nylander.

Until they fill the bottom 6 with the right "type" we're going no where. Core 4 is being wasted.

1) I disagree. The core of the Tampa team has been more 'team' oriented than our core.
2) Again, I disagree. This is a great core. They simply need to move towards being more engaged in the 'team' aspect' of hockey, and in the playoffs that means being 'mean'.

I said this when we signed him, and my friends said I was an idiot. He was an unwarranted addition that was "nice to have" but definitely not what we needed. This is only going to become more evident as he ages. No team has won a cup with their second line centre making 11mil for a reason.

John Tavares is a fine hockey player and a quality person. I suspect he's dealing with post Covid difficulties. Regardless, he may be having a bad streak, but I don't believe he is finished as a quality player in the NHL. I would like to see him become more of a pain in the ass, and less accepting of the crap he has to deal with. I am a JT fan.

Typical HF boards post, when we lose a few games. We will go on a winning streak shortly, and it will all go away.

If you've followed any of my posts, you know I am not reactionary. I don't believe the upcoming winning streak means diddly when it comes to the playoffs. This team needs to play harder, and it starts at the top. If you believe otherwise, ok, but please don't push my comment into the 'typical' range because of what I suspect may be your disagreement with my comments.

I wouldn't expect that to change anytime soon.
Probably better for the team to adjust than to hold their breath that things will change.

This is my concern. I'm not sure the core can adjust. As quality players, they are fine. Better than fine, they're very good. But, imo somebody needs to lead the fight towards making the other team accountable for their actions. I'm not sure this team has that/those players.

If you watched other teams as much as you watch the Leafs, with as much focus and emotional investment as you have in the Leafs, you would recognize that other teams - even the best, toughest, most successful playoff teams - make defensive zone brain farts and give up offensive zone turnover rush chances just as much (and sometimes more) than us, especially during their cold stretches like we're going through right now. We are a good defensive team, we don't give up an abnormal amount of odd man rushes, and odd man rush chances aren't the automatic goal that some people like to treat them as. In fact, the majority of the time, odd man rush chances and even breakaways should be saved, with even just league average goaltending.

Every successful team ever has and will allow a number of high-quality chances throughout a hockey game. What we have mainly had during this stretch is our goalies giving up an abnormal number of goals and bad rebounds on the relatively normal number of chances we've allowed.

And whatever small issues we may have, Matthews/Marner breaking their hands on somebody's face wouldn't solve a single one of them - just create more.

I agree with so much of this post. However, as I'm sure you know, the moments in a game that help define the outcome are not simply measured, they are felt. The Leafs play a soft game, and in the playoffs they are going up against teams that may not be as 'loaded' with quality players, but they are competing as a team and with purpose. I believe the Leafs are not that. The purpose is lacking, as a team. I may be expressing this poorly, but I feel that if the 'core' were more engaged in fighting back the rest of the team would do the same. My bad if I'm expressing this poorly.

it's amazing how getting the worst goaltending in the league shows how the real problem was actually toughness

Forgive me, but coming from you this is a bit of a disingenuous post. Nobody, certainly not me, is happy with the goaltending we are getting right now. Regardless, I think I've seen you comment more than once about your desire to have the team be more engaged physically? Is that correct? If not, my apologies.

Top 7 in points, points %, wins, win %, RW, RW %, ROW, ROW %, CF%, FF%, SF%, GF, xGF, xGA, GF %, xGF%, SCF %, HDCF %, PP, PK, faceoffs, etc, even after going through our roughest stretch of the season.

If you were a fan of Tampa, Florida, or Carolina instead, you'd be identifying just as many "issues" with them - especially if you had Toronto-style media scrambling for false, tired narratives to rile up the fanbase.

This is a very good team, and has about as good a shot as pretty much any team of going to the finals and winning.

Yes, they are a very good team. I think I acknowledged that in my opening post, or at least towards what is considered to be the 'core'. I like them, I think the talent is obvious and strong. However, is it wrong for me to ask of them to play a more aggressive game, one that is required in the playoffs, to succeed? To me, it isn't about this team's ability to contend, I think we all recognize they can, but the question remains what they need to do to jump the hurdle of winning and in my view that requires a more hard-nosed approach, especially from the core. It starts and ends there.

I definitely don't advocate for them fighting but getting involved in the scrums and pushbacks I would love to see

I wish I had your ability to say something as quickly and concisely as this!

I don't have a love button, but I had to reply and say this is a very solid post. We need guys to wear the other team down, when the big four are on the bench. Well put.

I will say Liljegren, to my slightly prejudiced eye, is developing into one such player, he is big, fast and has a bit of a bite developing, I want to see more of it, I am fanatical believer in making the other work their ass off.

Another excellent way of wearing out teams is more difficult and that is making defenders chase you all over the ice. Washington wore us right out by doing that in a very close series until they just exhausted us.

I'm hoping the team gives Lilly the rope to show who he can be. I've stated I think he will be a better player than Sandin, and that's a compliment to Liljegren, not a slight towards Sandin. Once he gains the needed number of games to feel comfortable, I think we have a player in TL.
 
Shanahan and Dubas have blinders on when it comes to the physical side of hockey and it is ruining what should have been a golden era for the Leafs. Instead of learning from 5 years of failure they instead doubled down again with this years version of the team being told they don't even have to hit on dump-ins lol. It's just looney, and it's the biggest reason that 5 years later their young stars are still not comfortable with playoff hockey.

That has always been amazing to me. Shanahan was a huge physical presence on the ice. I saw it so many times at work over my many years, a new boy genius comes in and the normally savvy old guys fall all over themselves to try and please the new genius. I would say that about 10% of the time the kid acrually was a genius. More often than not the company had to dig themselves out of the mess the kid put them in. Dubas is no genius, not hip, not cool, and has assembled a team that is going to set the Leafs back 10-15 years. Disappointing that Shanahan drank the Dubas Kool-aid.
 
If you watched other teams as much as you watch the Leafs, with as much focus and emotional investment as you have in the Leafs, you would recognize that other teams - even the best, toughest, most successful playoff teams - make defensive zone brain farts and give up offensive zone turnover rush chances just as much (and sometimes more) than us, especially during their cold stretches like we're going through right now. We are a good defensive team, we don't give up an abnormal amount of odd man rushes, and odd man rush chances aren't the automatic goal that some people like to treat them as. In fact, the majority of the time, odd man rush chances and even breakaways should be saved, with even just league average goaltending.

Every successful team ever has and will allow a number of high-quality chances throughout a hockey game. What we have mainly had during this stretch is our goalies giving up an abnormal number of goals and bad rebounds on the relatively normal number of chances we've allowed.

And whatever small issues we may have, Matthews/Marner breaking their hands on somebody's face wouldn't solve a single one of them - just create more.

I watch about 50/50 leafs vs other teams, i pick a game or 2 a day and watch whoever is playing.

the main difference is not that they dont make similar errors, its that they dont always end up a goal against with the frequency our mistakes do.
its like everyone that gets a chance vs the leafs is a sharpshooter picking corners, and never missing the net, except for the game vs Seattle, they had plenty odd man chances but, kept missing the net
 
I guess they think they'll develop that "killer instinct" and learn how to stick up for eachother. Or so they put out there.
Not in their DNA in my mind
you might be right but it still would have helped immensely if they had spent 5 years getting their young players accustomed to playoff hockey. Instead they told their young stars they don't need to bodycheck at all, they can just use "quirk sticks" instead. They told them they don't need to fight back at all, they can just "punish with the powerplay" instead. Throw in this years brilliant new strategy to avoid hitting entirely on dump-ins and it's just gotten weird at this point. It's no wonder the Shanahan/Dubas era teams keep struggling in the playoffs when the hitting starts and the open ice disappears.
 
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you might be right but it still would have helped immensely if they had spent 5 years getting their young players accustomed to playoff hockey. Instead they told their young stars they don't need to bodycheck at all, they can just use "quirk sticks" instead. They told them they don't need to fight back at all, they can just "punish with the powerplay" instead. Throw in this years brilliant new strategy to avoid hitting entirely on dump-ins and it's just gotten weird at this point. It's no wonder the Shanahan/Dubas era teams keep struggling in the playoffs when the hitting starts and the open ice disappears.

Such a waste of talent with a rookie GM who thinks his way is golden
 
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I well expect some ridicule here, but here goes.

This is a sad but true statement, it's a commentary on society, that we can't have civil discourse about a sports team, without having to resort to the extremes option.
 
Pre Covid, JT was a serious candidate for the Canadian Olympic team, JT was playing very well. He, and this is a guess, is dealing with post Covid lung issues.
so the latest excuse to explain JT's play is he's suffering from Covid lung issues , i guess we'll toss that one on the pile with these

-new father
-not trying to score , concentrating on D
-can't skate or play well due to lingering effects from his broken finger

that's a lot of excuses in the last 2 1/2 seasons don't you think ?
 
so the latest excuse to explain JT's play is he's suffering from Covid lung issues , i guess we'll toss that one on the pile with these

-new father
-not trying to score , concentrating on D
-can't skate or play well due to lingering effects from his broken finger

that's a lot of excuses in the last 2 1/2 seasons don't you think ?

Please explain why he was a serious candidate for team Canada pre covid and why he's struggling now. As to excuses, he's 23rd overall in scoring in the NHL the last 3 years playing behind Matthews, with 171 points in the last 172 games. Btw, 27th in scoring the last two years with 97 points in the last 105 games. And this year...47 in 49, ya he's having a rough stretch, why? What created the rough stretch? Maybe Covid? A serious candidate for Team Canada, to holding onto a close to a point/game, must be a bust.
 
Please explain why he was a serious candidate for team Canada pre covid and why he's struggling now. As to excuses, he's 23rd overall in scoring in the NHL the last 3 years playing behind Matthews, with 171 points in the last 172 games. Btw, 27th in scoring the last two years with 97 points in the last 105 games. And this year...47 in 49, ya he's having a rough stretch, why? What created the rough stretch? Maybe Covid? A serious candidate for Team Canada, to holding onto a close to a point/game, must be a bust.
a serious candidate according to who , the Toronto based media/insiders that are all employed by the same parent companies that own the Leafs ?

we're a high scoring team and he plays with quality players so he'll get his points vulturing around the net and on the pp but if you can't see how he keeps slowing down and struggling to keep up with the flow of the play then there's no use having a discussion since it's not my job as a fan of the team to consistently make excuses for our 11m dollar Captain
 
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Wasn't this the same song you were singing against CBJ and Montreal the past 2 playoffs
Not sure what "song" you're referring to. The facts? Only one team wins each year. Most great teams that have legitimate chances at the cup will lose. Doesn't mean you should stop building great teams and giving yourself the best chance.
Columbus was the 3rd lowest (180 GF) scoring team in the league entering the playoffs
And the best defensive team in the league, despite (like us) some fairly significant injury impacts that year, who also got elite goaltending in the playoffs. For somebody that puts such an exaggerated emphasis on defense, it's interesting that you keep leaving that part out.
Montreal was ranked #18
And then went to the finals on the back of a MVP goalie performance that they did not get in the regular season - having more trouble with us while missing multiple key players than either Winnipeg or the league point leader Vegas.
How much did your impressive spreadsheet stats help the Leafs advance in the playoffs those years, when the Leafs "on paper" were far better than their opponents in almost every category (apparently irrelevant to success) stat you listed above?
You exaggerate the discrepancy between playoff teams in this league. We were the better team overall in those two series, but we weren't "far better" in every category, and that gap shrunk with the injuries we sustained, and the elite goaltending our opponents received.

The wide range of all kinds of statistics are just showing that the Leafs are a great team. This is hockey, a lot of factors can impact results over 7-game samples, and the better team in general or even in a series doesn't always win that series, but unless you're suggesting that being a better team is not conducive to playoff success, I'm not sure what your issue with acknowledging the stats is.
"expected stats"
You do realize the majority of what I posted weren't even "expected stats", right?
 
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I said this when we signed him, and my friends said I was an idiot. He was an unwarranted addition that was "nice to have" but definitely not what we needed. This is only going to become more evident as he ages. No team has won a cup with their second line centre making 11mil for a reason.
Been saying that from day one, everyone thought I was crazy lol
 

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