The best goalscorers in the NHL

[Namba 17]

I don't know if someone has already done something similar, but I decided to find out which goal-scorer had the most outstanding season in the NHL. To find it, I found the ratio between the average number of goals per game of the best goal-scorer of the corresponding season and the average number of goals per game of the next 49 players (from 2nd to 50th places) of the same season. To make the result more demonstrative, I multiplied the result by 100.

To my mind, this method will allow us to take into consideration the strength of the league of the corresponding season, as well as reduce the influence of the numbers of goals per game of the different seasons.

Weak point of this method is random choice of the first 50 players. I feel, that smth wrong with it and we somehow should find the proper amount of players, whose stats we should use (for instance, probably, we should take not just the first 50, but only players who score more than 30 goals or something else).

I found the results pretty interesting.

What do you think?

1|70-71 Esposito| 249,98
2|90-91Hull|237,27
3|83-84 Gretzky| 220,30
4|71-72 Esposito| 215,62
5|88-89 Lemieux|214,30
6|81-82 Gretzky|214,18
7|73-74 Esposito|210,07
8|95-96 Lemieux|200,86
9|91-92 Hull| 197,00
10|99-00 Bure|194,27
11|07-08 Ovechkin|190,41
12|78-79 Bossy|188,56
13|11-12 Stamkos|182,71
14|97-98 Selanne|181,51
15| 76-77 Shutt| 179,55
16 |89-90 Hull| 178,15
17 |14-15 Ovechkin| 174,65
18 |77-78 Lafleur| 174,03
19 |84-85 Gretzky| 173,64
20 |79-80 Simmer| 173,21
21 |82-83 Gretzky| 172,05
22 |74-75 Esposito| 170,00
23 |13-14 Ovechkin| 168,33
24 |80-81 Bossy| 168,12
25 |87-88 Lemieux| 167,46
26 |12-13 Ovechkin| 167,40
27 |08-09 Ovechkin| 166,45
28 |85-86 Kurri| 165,56
29 |92-93 Selanne| 164,64
30 |75-76 Leach| 164,30
31 |86-87 Gretzky| 159,59
32 |93-94 Bure| 159,00
33 |00-01 Bure| 158,79
34 |94-95 Bondra| 156,49
35 |01-02 Iginla| 155,70
36 |72-73 Esposito| 155,59
37 |09-10 Crosby| 154,90
38 |10-11 Perry| 152,38
39 |98-99 Selanne| 151,61
40 |69-70 Esposito| 149,52
41 |05-06 Cheechoo| 149,22
42 |02-03 Hejduk| 147,32
43 |96-97 Tkachuk| 143,34
44 |06-07 Lecavalier| 142,43
45 |03-04 Kovalchuk| 137,11

Click to read more...

 

[Joedaman55]

Right on, that is an interesting result. The only issue I would have with it would be that goals per game can have some omitted variables (could be harder to score if you played more games, etc.) but the ratio gives a good result to correct for the era.

I'm kind of shcoked to see Espo and Hull at the top of the list when comparing seasons. I'm also kind of shocked Ovechkin's 2013-2014 isn't higher.

To perform the analysis it may be good to remove outliers in the average because they drive up the average. An easy way to do this would be to perform a Scatter Graph of those seasons and remove the dots that are consistently above the trend or look to be throwing off the average (Gretzky is one person that does this consistently). Removing the outliers from the average will make the average scoring variable more accurate.

 

[Voight]

2008 Ovechkin should be higher, Ive seen a lot of posts and research pieces showing why his seasons was better than Hull's 1991 year.

 

[Crosbyfan]

Right on, that is an interesting result. The only issue I would have with it would be that goals per game can have some omitted variables (could be harder to score if you played more games, etc.) but the ratio gives a good result to correct for the era.

I'm kind of shcoked to see Espo and Hull at the top of the list when comparing seasons. I'm also kind of shocked Ovechkin's 2013-2014 isn't higher.

To perform the analysis it may be good to remove outliers in the average because they drive up the average. An easy way to do this would be to perform a Scatter Graph of those seasons and remove the dots that are consistently above the trend or look to be throwing off the average (Gretzky is one person that does this consistently). Removing the outliers from the average will make the average scoring variable more accurate.

Espos best season had a 12 team league. The 49 would include, on average, about 4 from each team. Brett Hull's season had 21 teams, so on average about 2 and a half players per team.

Using the same methodology (2nd through 50th) on some O6 seasons and Richard, Howe, Beliveau, Geffrion, and Bobby Hull's best seasons would blow Espositos away, as you would be including on average about 8 per team.

Ovechkin is being compared to the average of the top roughly 1 and a half players per team. So you need to factor in the size of the league to get a sensible comparison. Other than that the idea is pretty good IMO.

Take say, the average of the top 2nd through 24 for Espo in 1970-71, the top 2nd through 42 for Hull in 1990-91, and top 2nd through 60 for Ovechkin, and I think it gets a lot closer.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Espos best season had a 12 team league. The 49 would include, on average, about 4 from each team. Brett Hull's season had 21 teams, so on average about 2 and a half players per team.

Using the same methodology (2nd through 50th) on some O6 seasons and Richard, Howe, Beliveau, Geffrion, and Bobby Hull's best seasons would blow Espositos away, as you would be including on average about 8 per team.

Ovechkin is being compared to the average of the top roughly 1 and a half players per team. So you need to factor in the size of the league to get a sensible comparison. Other than that the idea is pretty good IMO.

Take say, the average of the top 2nd through 24 for Espo in 1970-71, the top 2nd through 42 for Hull in 1990-91, and top 2nd through 60 for Ovechkin, and I think it gets a lot closer.

Pretty much this and one should compare against forwards to omit outlier seasons and trends where Dmen scored at much higher rates due to style of play and coaching ect...

 

[Big Phil]

Ovechkin's being lower than Hull's in 1992 is misleading. I agree that Hull in 1991 probably was better but Ovechkin in 2008 was pretty epic.

That being said, I still have to fall on Gretzky's 1982 season as probably the best. For starters, it remains the best raw total. Secondly, he shattered the previous record by 16 goals. He did all this while making a mockery of the scoring race as well. He scored a still-record 50 in 39 games. Not to mention perhaps Bossy's best season as a goal scorer he had 64 in that same year. No one was even close.

Now I know 1984 Gretzky is pretty much the same but with a little higher of a GPG. Goulet was 2nd with 56 which is a 31 goal difference to Gretzky's 87. So you can pick either one of them and not be wrong.

Esposito in 1971 comes to mind as well. Had he been healthy Mario in 1993 could flirt with #1. As it stands Mario in 1989 is pretty darn good in itself.

Hull in 1966 is probably his best year.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

I came up with a system almost similar to this but with points a few months ago. My criteria for the data points was a little different than yours though. Instead of using 50 guys across any given year, I used the # of 1st liners. So for 2014-15, I had 90 data points (30 teams x 3 1st line spots) or for 1980-81 I used 63 data points (21 teams x 3 1st line spots). I also omitted any outliers using the Thompson-Tau technique. So basically, I'm using the mean production of the 1st liners of a certain season, minus the outliers. Say I wanted to find out how many points would 1981-82 Gretzky score in 2014-15, I do: (raw point totals of Gretzky adj. 82 GP / mean of 1981-82 adj. 82 GP) * (mean of 2014-15).

Like you, I find this to be better than just using the raw GPG of a certain year to adjust my stats to since it doesnt take into account the production of 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners. Some eras, the bottom guys had a bigger role in scoring (80s) than some eras (late 90s). Under this method, 1992-93 is the highest scoring year which makes sense since it was easier for a first liner to score in 1992-93 than any other year (almost every first liner had a career year that year). Also, you're doing a peer comparison which is obviously the best method for comparing players across eras.

I've tabulated the numbers for every season from 1968 to 2009 and the results look very promising. I found that players in both high and low scoring eras are represented fairly. You guys know those endless threads about "how many points Gretzky would score today" and how most opinions are ~150? Guess what? This is exactly what I got for Gretzky's best seasons.

I've also calculated numbers for the O6 but I found that this method severely underrated O6 players (Bobby Hull's 1965-66 season is worse than any post-67 Art Ross winning season except for Benn's). What I did instead of using 18 data points, I used 36 since every team had 2 lines of legit first liners. This method worked better but I'm still not sure about it. If you guys want I'll post my work sometime later.

Also, this method can only be used to adjust stats of guys that were the same "liners". If you want to find out the numbers of a guy that produced at a 2nd, 3rd or 4th line rate, you'll have to take data points for each individually.

 

[Namba 17]

Ovechkin is being compared to the average of the top roughly 1 and a half players per team. So you need to factor in the size of the league to get a sensible comparison. Other than that the idea is pretty good IMO.
Take say, the average of the top 2nd through 24 for Espo in 1970-71, the top 2nd through 42 for Hull in 1990-91, and top 2nd through 60 for Ovechkin, and I think it gets a lot closer.

Instead of using 50 guys across any given year, I used the # of 1st liners.

Probably, you are right. I'll try to make new calculations and post them here. It'll take time, though.

If you guys want I'll post my work sometime later.

Yes, it will be very interesting indeed.

 

[tony d]

That's neat, thanks for sharing.

 

[Joedaman55]

I came up with a system almost similar to this but with points a few months ago. My criteria for the data points was a little different than yours though. Instead of using 50 guys across any given year, I used the # of 1st liners. So for 2014-15, I had 90 data points (30 teams x 3 1st line spots) or for 1980-81 I used 63 data points (21 teams x 3 1st line spots). I also omitted any outliers using the Thompson-Tau technique. So basically, I'm using the mean production of the 1st liners of a certain season, minus the outliers. Say I wanted to find out how many points would 1981-82 Gretzky score in 2014-15, I do: (raw point totals of Gretzky adj. 82 GP / mean of 1981-82 adj. 82 GP) * (mean of 2014-15).

Like you, I find this to be better than just using the raw GPG of a certain year to adjust my stats to since it doesnt take into account the production of 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners. Some eras, the bottom guys had a bigger role in scoring (80s) than some eras (late 90s). Under this method, 1992-93 is the highest scoring year which makes sense since it was easier for a first liner to score in 1992-93 than any other year (almost every first liner had a career year that year). Also, you're doing a peer comparison which is obviously the best method for comparing players across eras.

I've tabulated the numbers for every season from 1968 to 2009 and the results look very promising. I found that players in both high and low scoring eras are represented fairly. You guys know those endless threads about "how many points Gretzky would score today" and how most opinions are ~150? Guess what? This is exactly what I got for Gretzky's best seasons.

I've also calculated numbers for the O6 but I found that this method severely underrated O6 players (Bobby Hull's 1965-66 season is worse than any post-67 Art Ross winning season except for Benn's). What I did instead of using 18 data points, I used 36 since every team had 2 lines of legit first liners. This method worked better but I'm still not sure about it. If you guys want I'll post my work sometime later.

Also, this method can only be used to adjust stats of guys that were the same "liners". If you want to find out the numbers of a guy that produced at a 2nd, 3rd or 4th line rate, you'll have to take data points for each individually.

Don't want to steer away from the thread but what was your Gretzky result?

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Don't want to steer away from the thread but what was your Gretzky result?

Here are his Art Ross Trophy wins (I'll include 1980):

1980: 105
1981: 121
1982: 146
1983: 142
1984: 142
1985: 148
1986: 154
1987: 139
1990: 102
1991: 124
1994: 99

For comparison's sake, no other players have scored 150+ and the only other players to reach 140+ points in a season (up until 1939-40 since I haven't done the data for years before): 1952-53 G. Howe (149) and 1988-89 M. Lemieux (147). No other players except for the three mentioned and 1970-71 P. Esposito have broken 130+.

 

[The Panther]

1982: 146
1983: 142
1984: 142
1985: 148
1986: 154
1987: 139

See, this is why I rate Gretzky as easily the best offensive forward, ever. Gordie Howe and Mario (and Bobby Hull for goals) might approach these levels once or twice in their careers, but they could not maintain it consistently for six or seven consecutive years (in 1987-88 Gretzky actually scored at the same or higher rate than 1986-87 but lost 16 games and the scoring title), while Gretzky not only did it year-after-year at the same level, but his team was also in 1st place every year (2nd in '88) and won 4 Stanley Cups. (I might add that we're not even counting 1980-81 as part of Gretzky's prime -- a season in which he set the all-time points record while still being eligible for World Juniors).

Peak performance +
Every year for six or seven years, no exceptions +
playoff/team success every year (4 championships)
= BEST EVER


The only forward who approaches Gretzky for scoring-domination + consistency over six or seven years is Phil Esposito, but he wasn't even the best player on his team. (I admit Gordie comes closest to six or seven years straight at personal/team peak.)

 

[Namba 17]

As I said, I redid the table.
I studied all the advices carefully.
As for removing outliers in the average - I don't see why do we need it. The first result is an outlier itself. Why should we remove other outliers, but leave the 1st one? Besides, I think that the method I used to make the table #2 make it unnecessary.
As for the size of the league. Yes, it was the weakest point of my method and very good point of Crosbyfan (many thanks to him). But the more I thought about it, the more I came to conclusion, that we shouldn't take the number of players for the calculations just in proportion with the number of teams, or total number of players. Because it will tell us nothing about the strength of the league in the given season. I'll tell later how I decided to decide this problem.
Just the same about Sprague Cleghorn method. I think it's very good and interesting, but I don't like two things about it - first, as I stated above, the constant number of players from season to season makes too many distortions in the result to my mind. In different seasons there were different numbers of players scored goals and point, your method doesn't consider it. Second, if I understood you correctly, you took the stats of the 1-st liners only. It leaves aside such second liners as Malkin and Kane, for example.
As for the comparison against forwards. I don't see why should we exclude defensemen. They score too
...to be continue

 

[Namba 17]

So, to make my table more correct, I decided to find the number of players, who scored 80% of goals in corresponding season, and find the average number of goals per game excluding goals and games of the 1-st place. Everything else is the same.
80% was taken without any methods, so it might be weak point too But I found out that the number of players, who score 80% of the goals of the season is pretty much the same, no matter what season it is - it's from 33 to 39% of all the players of the season; for the majority of seasons it's 34-35% (which is interesting itself, I think).
So, I found the average number of goals per game of the best goalscorer and compared it to the average number of goals per game of the other best players of the corresponding seasons.
I'll post the table after a few minutes.

 

[Namba 17]

Here the result.

What do you think?

1|90-91 Hull| 379,21
2|83-84 Gretzky| 346,60
3|95-96 Lemieux| 344,11
4|88-89 Lemieux| 329,88
5|99-00 Bure| 324,54
6|07-08 Ovechkin| 323,96
7|70-71 Esposito| 323,67
8|81-82 Gretzky| 315,88
9|91-92 Hull| 312,86
10|11-12 Stamkos| 303,20
11|97-98 Selanne| 301,77
12|71-72 Esposito| 292,44
13|14-15 Ovechkin| 289,08
14|00-01 Bure| 285,93
15|73-74 Esposito| 285,86
16|87-88 Lemieux| 282,84
17|13-14 Ovechkin| 282,01
18|12-13 Ovechkin| 281,78
19|92-93 Selanne| 281,45
20|84-85 Gretzky| 276,41
21|08-09 Ovechkin| 275,91
22|01-02 Iginla| 275,50
23|79-80 Simmer| 273,05
24|78-79 Bossy| 272,84
25|89-90 Hull| 272,29
26|93-94 Bure| 271,48
27|82-83 Gretzky| 267,83
28|85-86 Kurri| 257,61
29|86-87 Gretzky| 255,51
30|76-77 Shutt| 255,28
31|09-10 Crosby| 255,10
32|05-06 Cheechoo| 253,43
33|77-78 Lafleur| 252,21
34|10-11 Perry| 250,90
35|96-97 Tkachuk| 250,77
36|80-81 Bossy| 250,08
37|02-03 Hejduk| 246,88
38|94-95 Bondra| 246,62
39|06-07 Lecavalier| 245,05
40|74-75 Esposito| 240,49
41|75-76 Leach| 236,27
42|98-99 Selanne| 224,04
43|03-04 Kovalchuk| 222,68
44|72-73 Esposito| 217,62
45|69-70 Esposito| 189,69

The most interesting thing to me is 81-82 Gretzky

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

As I said, I redid the table.
I studied all the advices carefully.
As for removing outliers in the average - I don't see why do we need it. The first result is an outlier itself. Why should we remove other outliers, but leave the 1st one? Besides, I think that the method I used to make the table #2 make it unnecessary.
As for the size of the league. Yes, it was the weakest point of my method and very good point of Crosbyfan (many thanks to him). But the more I thought about it, the more I came to conclusion, that we shouldn't take the number of players for the calculations just in proportion with the number of teams, or total number of players. Because it will tell us nothing about the strength of the league in the given season. I'll tell later how I decided to decide this problem.
Just the same about Sprague Cleghorn method. I think it's very good and interesting, but I don't like two things about it - first, as I stated above, the constant number of players from season to season makes too many distortions in the result to my mind. In different seasons there were different numbers of players scored goals and point, your method doesn't consider it. Second, if I understood you correctly, you took the stats of the 1-st liners only. It leaves aside such second liners as Malkin and Kane, for example.
As for the comparison against forwards. I don't see why should we exclude defensemen. They score too
...to be continue

Nice job on the table below.

I see there was a bit of a misunderstanding by the "1st liners" comment. What I meant by "1st liners" was guys that finished top-X in scoring (top-90 in a 30 team league, top 18 in a 6 team league) regardless of what actual lines they played or position. So, this does include guys like Malkin or Messier and this does include D-man too.

Did you only do it for post-O6 seasons?

I guess I can post a sample of my work. This is from 1980-1990 only:

 

[Namba 17]

Did you only do it for post-O6 seasons?

I did it for 69-70 - 14-15 seasons

I guess I can post a sample of my work. This is from 1980-1990 only:

Great job!

 

[Hippasus]

This is the ranking of the most impressive entries by a player from post 15 (domination of peers since post-O6 expansion), assuming the 45th position to be worth half that of the 1st position. This list is comprised of all players with multiple entries in that post:

Esposito: 7,12,15,40,44,45
Ovechkin: 6,13,17,18,21
Gretzky: 2,8,20,27,29
Lemieux: 3,4,16
Brett Hull: 1,9,25
Bure: 5,14,26
Selanne: 11,19,42
Bossy: 24,36

 

[Namba 17]

UPDATE!!!!

As everybody has been waiting eagerly (well... probably (I hope), at least one), I updated my table with 15-16 season result (see row #20, bolded).

1| 90-91 Hull |379,21
2| 83-84 Gretzky |346,60
3| 95-96 Lemieux |344,11
4| 88-89 Lemieux |329,88
5| 99-00 Bure |324,54
6| 07-08 Ovechkin |323,96
7| 70-71 Esposito |323,67
8| 81-82 Gretzky |315,88
9| 91-92 Hull |312,86
10| 11-12 Stamkos |303,20
11| 97-98 Selanne |301,77
12| 71-72 Esposito |292,44
13| 14-15 Ovechkin |289,08
14| 00-01 Bure |285,93
15| 73-74 Esposito |285,86
16| 87-88 Lemieux |282,84
17| 13-14 Ovechkin |282,01
18| 12-13 Ovechkin |281,78
19| 92-93 Selanne |281,45
20 | 15-16 Ovechkin | 278,88
21| 84-85 Gretzky |276,41
22| 08-09 Ovechkin |275,91
23| 01-02 Iginla |275,50
24| 79-80 Simmer |273,05
25| 78-79 Bossy |272,84
26| 89-90 Hull |272,29
27| 93-94 Bure |271,48
28| 82-83 Gretzky |267,83
29| 85-86 Kurri |257,61
30| 86-87 Gretzky |255,51
31| 76-77 Shutt |255,28
32| 09-10 Crosby |255,10
33| 05-06 Cheechoo |253,43
34| 77-78 Lafleur |252,21
35| 10-11 Perry |250,90
36| 96-97 Tkachuk |250,77
37| 80-81 Bossy |250,08
38| 02-03 Hejduk |246,88
39| 94-95 Bondra |246,62
40| 06-07 Lecavalier |245,05
41| 74-75 Esposito |240,49
42| 75-76 Leach |236,27
43| 98-99 Selanne |224,04
44| 03-04 Kovalchuk |222,68
45| 72-73 Esposito |217,62
46| 69-70 Esposito |189,69

 

[Namba 17]

And I noticed an interesting thing

 

[Namba 17]

There are 46 seasons in the table above.
46 rows.
It may be divided to two parts - upper one and bottom one with 23 rows in each.

There are the following players in the upper part of the table:

Ovechkin - 6 times
Lemieux - 3
Gretzky - 3
Esposito - 3
Hull - 2
Bure - 2
Selanne - 2
Stamkos - 1
Iginla - 1

 

[Uncle Rotter]

That being said, I still have to fall on Gretzky's 1982 season as probably the best. For starters, it remains the best raw total. Secondly, he shattered the previous record by 16 goals. He did all this while making a mockery of the scoring race as well. He scored a still-record 50 in 39 games. Not to mention perhaps Bossy's best season as a goal scorer he had 64 in that same year. No one was even close.

And he had only 18 goals on the power play. Out of 92.

 

[The Panther]

And he had only 18 goals on the power play. Out of 92.

C'mon, that's a lot. In 1985 he scored only 8 of 73 on the power-play.


About the list, above, shouldn't Jari Kurri's 1984-85 be on it somewhere?

 

[Namba 17]

About the list, above, shouldn't Jari Kurri's 1984-85 be on it somewhere?

84-85 Kurri - 71 goals, Gretzky - 73 goals, row#21

List is only about the best goal scorers of the corresponding seasons.

 

[The Panther]

84-85 Kurri - 71 goals, Gretzky - 73 goals, row#21

List is only about the best goal scorers of the corresponding seasons.

Gotcha.