Still, $22m is a lot for five players. I really doubt they look to add another big money player.
The Armchair GM Thread - LXXV
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Still, $22m is a lot for five players. I really doubt they look to add another big money player.
Jimson Hogarth*
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- Nov 21, 2013
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Yea, the only way is if they think Edler is an upgrade and we take back one of those poor value contracts.
This is the scenario Pauser keeps bringing up, and I don't think we are there yet, but we have to avoid being terminally mediocre like Calgary. We've had 2 disappointing seasons in a row. A third season without a notable improvement would be an unavoidable sign that this core can not compete and has to be blown up.
If the Sedins don't rebound, regardless of what we do with Kesler, UFAs, the draft or young prospects, we are going to struggle to even make the playoffs next year. We simply don't have the talent or depth to replace the Sedins. That's why I think there is little downside to trading Kesler. He's a core player, but not the one that drives the team's success. If Henrik has a great year, he brings the rest of the team with him. If Kesler has a great year, it doesn't necessarily mean the team is going to be good.
If we are on the bubble at the deadline (8th - 10th place) you have to take a hard look at the team. Are they playing well, just not getting results? How healthy are they? How are the other wildcard teams playing? What does the remaining schedule look like? How's the "process" look - is the team engaged and working hard? What assets are availabe in Utica? This is where the executive needs to be brutally honest in its assessment of the team. By all accounts, Gillis came to the right conclusion last year, that the team was not good enough, and was prepared to trade Kesler and/or Edler, but the owners intervened.
In many ways, a new GM has a huge advantage. If Benning's team under-performs or doesn't make the playoffs, he can blame Gillis; the team is too old and lacks talent / depth. This is a double edged sword however. Because the changes that he makes this year and next will become Benning's signature. If this doesn't work, the axe will fall again.
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y2kcanucks
Le Sex God
Further to this: if the Canucks go out and acquire the top pick this year and draft Sam Reinhart, now we have a young top prospect to really get excited about. Add him in there with Horvat and Shinkaruk and we're starting to look good up front. Now if the team struggles again, Benning can point to our brighter future and request a bit of patience while the guys develop and gain some experience. Another top pick next year will help too.
Even if the team turns into the Sabres next year and absolutely tanks, drafting Connor McDavid alone will be enough to keep a strong season ticketholder base.
Even if the team turns into the Sabres next year and absolutely tanks, drafting Connor McDavid alone will be enough to keep a strong season ticketholder base.
Barney Gumble
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- Jan 2, 2007
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Assuming Tanev signs for something in the $2 million range....our top five won't be that far off $22 million if both Garrison & Edler are kept.
Bourne Endeavor
Registered User
While I am still of this mind regardless, if all teams are offering is one good prospect and their first. I'd rather just keep Kesler and go UFA fishing, then reassess come the deadline. We need a boon to consider moving Kesler before that, imo. And I'm just not all that enticed by Etem+ or any Chicago offers that do not include TT.
y2kcanucks
Le Sex God
And if Kesler gets injured this season we may not even get that much.
I'd move Kesler now. Would much rather move a player a year before their best before date, than a year after when it's too late and we can't get anything of value.
vadim sharifijanov
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- Oct 10, 2007
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So what do you guys want -- just trade Kesler, run out a team of nobodies and kids playing way out of their element, and turn into the Oilers?
The team needs to have useful roster players here. There's also the chance that the kids develop more quickly than expected (see: Avalanche, Colorado) and the team is competitive. What if Shinkaruk is a top 6 forward by 2015-2016? What if Horvat is a 3rd line centre capable of taking tough minutes by then (a la Sean Couturier at 19/20)? Then the team is competitive but management has spent two seasons not acquiring anyone because "lol no point".
It just seems really counter intuitive to me.
Well you're cherry picking if you're going to make me use Ryan Callahan as the example in the rest of this argument.
But even still, we're really talking about, say, Callahan+Higgins+Matthias vs. Higgins+Matthias+Sestito. There's a significant difference (Callahan's younger than Higgins and has scored 26 more goals over the last three seasons) on every line.
partially, this is probably a moot point because unless we have two kids who become at the very least valuable second line-level contributors in the next year or two, the window is closed.
but i'm going to play out both scenarios. if the window is closed, then why not give the responsibility to the kids? it's not like we're going with horvat, gaunce, fox, and hemsky, sam gagner, dustin pancakes, and whatever abomination the oilers had on their blueline. the sedins are still here, kassian is developing, and we still have five very good defensemen. the team should be competitive, and the veteran support/guidance is still in place. if we're going to make it into the playoffs as a lower seed and then lose in the first or second round anyway, i'd rather have the youngsters learning the ropes rather than a high level second-level guy blocking them.
if the kids manage to pry the window open, assuming horvat or whoever else becomes pavelski good but not toews good, you're not going to win the west with paul stastny or cammalleri on your second line unless he's playing with a linemate who's better than him. patrick sharp is a very good player, but if you're going to win the cup he can't be the best thing you have on your second line; enter: hossa. so like i said earlier, these guys who are available this year (with the exception of vanek and gaborik, the latter being a huge injury risk) aren't guys who can anchor a second line to the finals. they're first liners on a bad team, but not quite at the level of a centerpiece on the second line of a true contender. the west is too competitive. joe pavelski is better than all those guys, and how many finals has he gotten to?
in the alternate scenario of how the canucks could have navigated life after 2011, if they were ever going to win a cup with that core, they realistically needed a ringer. they obviously could never get one because we neither had the prospect/young player depth to acquire one, nor the cap space to fit one in, due to overpaying secondary guys (mostly on D).
but insofar as we spend so much time talking about the blackhawks model or the boston model, and insofar as most of us agree that that "model" talk is misguided, there is a model. and that model, as shown by chicago and LA, are that you don't sign marty havlat (circa 2009) type guys or even danny briere, who is admittedly a playoff boss... but in the less competitive east. that model suggests that you augment your team and raise yourself against the deep teams in your way by overpaying a first a line star. hossa in 2010, carter in 2012. or you pick one up as a rental, like gaborik this year. it didn't matter that all three of those guys were considered guys you can't win with until they won it, because you're not asking them to be your franchise player. you're asking that guy to either be the second guy on your first line, or to carry your second line (or, in the case of carter this year, run with two good kids on the third line and fire away on the PP). and it didn't matter that hossa and carter had/got longterm contracts because the cap rose, and who cares about the future when you can get to multiple finals now? plus, you got those guys basically for free (jack johnson is a small price when you're getting jeff carter, and voynov made him redundant; and the 1st took nothing else off the roster).
my alternate scenario is kind of nuts, but here's how it could have played out. if we'd drafted better and managed the cap better (say, dumped ballard if he wasn't going to play, never traded for booth), and if brian burke wasn't so stubborn (both in terms of hating the canucks and in terms of riding his guys even though it makes no sense to keep riding them), imagine if the stars had aligned and we could have gotten phaneuf in 2012 for hodgson, picks, and a role player. bad down the road-- that's taking kassian and probably at least shinkaruk out of our future-- but good now. and dion phaneuf takes a lot of crap and i give him a lot of crap, but he's a #1 defenseman in this league. not a good #1, and not a #1 on a good team, but he's a #1. if you added him to our 2012 and 2013 teams, sheltering him from the tough defensive minutes (hamhuis takes those, of course), and basically giving him ehrhoff's old role, that's a legit contender. and it doesn't matter that, like carter, like gaborik, like hossa, that's he's "not a guy you win with." it doesn't even matter that like carter he's a problem guy. because at his talent and his new role, and with leadership and a hierarchy already in place, he doesn't have to be drew doughty (on the ice) and he doesn't need to be trevor linden (in the room). and that's why you don't clog up the roster with stastny or callahan-- so when they're giving away jeff carters, you can get one. (granted, those guys don't come around very often but...)
mark my words, next season fat lazy rick nash will be that guy for some lucky team.
Bourne Endeavor
Registered User
Or he has a better year under a non-suffocating coach who uses him better and we get more.
Either scenario is possible. I'm just not enamored with Etem+ or any offer Chicago makes that doesn't involve TT. That and I'd rather use the wealth of salary we finally have and bring in some big name UFAs. Trading Garrison/Edler/Tanev is still an option, which would allow us to draft Reinhart.
y2kcanucks
Le Sex God
For me, any trade with Chicago has to include TT.
Regarding Anaheim, something around Etem + 10th overall is a good framework. Add someone like Vatanen, Theodore, their other first rounder or their 2015 first rounder and that clinches it for me.
ginner classic
Dammit Jim!
Agreed. Unless there is a couple of really solid assets coming back there is no incentive to move him. Prefer we were the highest bidder on Stastny with Kesler here than trade him for peanuts.
Burrows Stastny Kesler
Sedin Sedin Jensen
Higgins Horvat Kassian
Richardson Matthias Hansen
Sestito
Edler/Garrison - Tanev
Hamhuis - Bieksa
Stanton - Ekblad
Sbisa - Corrado
Stastny - UFA
Sbisa - Trade
Schroeder, Santorelli and Booth out.
One of Edler or Garrison moved to Florida with the 6th for the first.
That's a playoff team and Stastny closes the generation gap between Sedin and Horvat. If we still were struggling there are plenty of veteran assets to sell at the deadline in Higgins, Bieksa, Richardson, and Hansen.
Obviously this is the best case scenario for an offseason where we don't rebuild.
y2kcanucks
Le Sex God
I disagree. I don't see that team making the playoffs either.
People seem to underrate the significance of what we have lost in net.
You mentioned how Chicago did it, how LA did it, etc. But none of those teams have shown us what it takes for a team past its "best before" date turns it around and becomes contenders again. I don't think we fit their template, I really doubt that whoever we pick up in the draft this year (nevermind Horvat or Shinkaruk, let alone Gaunce, Jensen et al) are going to singlehandedly change the fortunes of this franchise in the next year or two.. in three or four years it's plausible, but by then the kind of contract I am talking about is nearly done anyways.
And in fact, while they were building up from within both LA and Chicago did fill in holes with UFA guys. Look at Lang or Khabibulin in Chicago, or Ryan Smyth and Handzus in LA.
The Stig
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Continue here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=85972311#post85972311
Continue here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=85972311#post85972311
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