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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IX

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nyr2k2 said:
Man, you mean some athletes don't buy into the significance of analytics? This is a new and earth-shattering development, and I'm sure many analytically-focused minds will be changed by this thorough takedown of the movement.
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Yeah..I mean, why take the athlete, who's actually being analyzed and tested, word for it?
He must be completely crazy to not have the same opinion lol
 
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NYR said:
Yeah..I mean, why take the athlete, who's actually being analyzed and tested, word for it?
He must be completely crazy to not have the same opinion lol
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Who said anything about him being crazy? He's entitled to his opinion on the matter. My point is that his opinion is not new and is basically just the "Watch the game, nerds!" thing that people in the field of analytics have been hearing for a couple decades. Doesn't really bring anything new to the table.
 
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Anzi said:
I get the idea of shooting percentages regressing to the mean but I feel like it's flawed logic to decide that their career averages is what the mean is. There's more factors than just luck at play. You have to look at things like shooting volume, quality of shots, etc to provide context to the shooting percentages.
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Absolutely. But then there's 22%...
 
I’m sorry but quite a lot of these analytical tweets and posts come out as if the rest of the world views Strome as the newly minted ppg NHLer, which is obviously not the case. So I agree with ADA that people need to “watch games” and acknowledge that Strome has been playing well. And I also agree that the same people, if they are to be consistent, should just as well discount Chytil’s performance because of his unsustainable high shooting % in these 12 games, no?
 
kovazub94 said:
I’m sorry but quite a lot of these analytical tweets and posts come out as if the rest of the world views Strome as the newly minted ppg NHLer, which is obviously not the case. So I agree with ADA that people need to “watch games” and acknowledge that Strome has been playing well. And I also agree that the same people, if they are to be consistent, should just as well discount Chytil’s performance because of his unsustainable high shooting % in these 12 games, no?
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The problem is that we conflate regression with discounting performance. No, Flip Chytil is not scoring 48 goals. And Strome isn't putting up 82 points. These shouldn't be controversial takes.

That doesn't mean they're not playing well. For Strome in particular, his issues are defensive.
 
kovazub94 said:
I’m sorry but quite a lot of these analytical tweets and posts come out as if the rest of the world views Strome as the newly minted ppg NHLer, which is obviously not the case. So I agree with ADA that people need to “watch games” and acknowledge that Strome has been playing well. And I also agree that the same people, if they are to be consistent, should just as well discount Chytil’s performance because of his unsustainable high shooting % in these 12 games, no?
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With Chytil I dont think people expected him to keep these numbers up, I highly doubt anyone expects him to score 30, but its more about the strides he has taken and the promise he shows. No offense to Strome but I don't think anyone sees a ton of potential in Strome outside of being a middle six forward.
 
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Machinehead said:
The problem is that we conflate regression with discounting performance. No, Flip Chytil is not scoring 48 goals. And Strome isn't putting up 82 points. These shouldn't be controversial takes.

That doesn't mean they're not playing well. For Strome in particular, his issues are defensive.
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Hes scoring 50
 
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Machinehead said:
The problem is that we conflate regression with discounting performance. No, Flip Chytil is not scoring 48 goals. And Strome isn't putting up 82 points. These shouldn't be controversial takes.

That doesn't mean they're not playing well. For Strome in particular, his issues are defensive.
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You mean as a middle-6 forward he’s not excelling on defense as 1C? Well, color me shocked!
 
Rangers743 said:
With Chytil I dont think people expected him to keep these numbers up, I highly doubt anyone expects him to score 30, but its more about the strides he has taken and the promise he shows. No offense to Strome but I don't think anyone sees a ton of potential in Strome outside of being a middle six forward.
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So a middle-6 forward who is temporary put to be 1C on rebuilding team has been scoring a ppg and that’s a bad thing? Did I mention that no one projects Strome as 1C long term going forward and no one expects the Rangers to pay him as such?
 
Strome has done a pretty decent job for a mid 6 center playing top line. We are one of the better teams in the league since Zib went down. I don't know why people continue to crap on him, we made a steal of a deal getting him, he has been 3 times the player we expected to get so enjoy it. I have never seen so many people complaining about a player in my life that has played so well in a role he shouldnt be in. He has been one of our MVP's to date.
 
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NYR said:
Yeah..I mean, why take the athlete, who's actually being analyzed and tested, word for it?
He must be completely crazy to not have the same opinion lol
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Analytics have their place but I'd value an actual players opinion over any analytical stat since they are literally paid millions to be the best at it.
 
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Richard Banger said:
They have to evaluate while playing. They are evaluating the play better than anyone watching.
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So you're telling me that DeAngelo, in the middle of taking his own shifts, is analyzing how Ryan Strome is playing intricately enough to render an opinion that's the opposite what the metrics say?
 
Machinehead said:
So you're telling me that DeAngelo, in the middle of taking his own shifts, is analyzing how Ryan Strome is playing intricately enough to render an opinion that's the opposite what the metrics say?
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You mean to tell me that the player that plays with said player being evaluated doesn't have the appropriate and accurate opinion of said player when he plays with him on a daily basis and practices with him?
 
Richard Banger said:
You mean to tell me that the player that plays with said player being evaluated doesn't have the appropriate and accurate opinion of said player when he plays with him on a daily basis and practices with him?
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Yes, because he's worrying about doing his own job. That's why you rarely see superstars have success as coaches.
 
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