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Prospect Info: The 2023-2024 Prospects Thread Pt. 3

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I just noticed Scott Wheeler of the Athletic is doing his prospect pool rankings update (someone gave me a subscription). He’s up to no. 19 and I was surprised to see the Canucks are not already listed, meaning Wheeler has them in the top half. I guess he really likes Willander and probably Lekkerimaki too. Bottom three are Boston, Ottawa, and the Islanders (32nd).
 
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tradervik said:
I just noticed Scott Wheeler of the Athletic is doing his prospect pool rankings update (someone gave me a subscription). He’s up to no. 19 and I was surprised to see the Canucks are not already listed, meaning Wheeler has them in the top half. I guess he really likes Willander and probably Lekkerimaki too. Bottom three are Boston, Ottawa, and the Islanders (32nd).
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Does he not realize that we just traded Adam Fox
 
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I saw the winning goal play last night where Willander didn't look so great but it was a 3 on 3 okay and he got back into the okay after cheating up on the rush.gis skating and instincts looked very good on that okay even if they gave up the goal.
 
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Here's Scott Wheeler's rankings. Obviously this is just one guy's opinion and he's usually about a season behind, or knows practically nothing, unless their play is demanding his attention. Currently ranked 18th which is a big climb over last year's 28th.

Tier 1:
1) Jonathan Lekkerimaki
2) Tom Willander

Tier 2:
3) Vasiliy Podkolzin

Tier 3:
4) Aatu Raty
5) Elias Pettersson
6) Arturs Silovs

Tier 4:
7) Jacob Truscott
8) Arshdeep Bains
9) Danila Klimovich
10) Sawyer Mynio
11) Cole McWard
12) Kirill Kudryavtsev
13) Ty Mueller
14) Nikita Tolopilo

I don't really have any solid arguments. Other than having Bains too low and Klimovich way too high but whatever.
 
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Vector said:
Here's Scott Wheeler's rankings. Obviously this is just one guy's opinion and he's usually about a season behind, or knows practically nothing, unless their play is demanding his attention. Currently ranked 18th which is a big climb over last year's 28th.

Tier 1:
1) Jonathan Lekkerimaki
2) Tom Willander

Tier 2:
3) Vasiliy Podkolzin

Tier 3:
4) Aatu Raty
5) Elias Pettersson
6) Arturs Silovs

Tier 4:
7) Jacob Truscott
8) Arshdeep Bains
9) Danila Klimovich
10) Sawyer Mynio
11) Cole McWard
12) Kirill Kudryavtsev
13) Ty Mueller
14) Nikita Tolopilo

I don't really have any solid arguments. Other than having Bains too low and Klimovich way too high but whatever.
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I'd push Mynio and Bains into Tier 3.
 
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In Scott Wheelers 2024 Prospect rankings, it looks like the Canucks are not in the bottom 1/3 of league rankings..Quite the step up from a few years ago.

32 NYI - https://theathletic.com/5040967/2024...rankings-2024/
31 OTT - https://theathletic.com/5102037/2024...rankings-2024/
30 BOS - https://theathletic.com/5114411/2024...rankings-2024/
29 TB - https://theathletic.com/5190377/2024...rankings-2024/
28 TOR - https://theathletic.com/5190753/2024...rankings-2024/
27 PIT - https://theathletic.com/5193446/2024...rankings-2024/
26 COL - https://theathletic.com/5196396/2024...rankings-2024/
25 EDM - https://theathletic.com/5214044/2024...rankings-2024/
24 FLA - https://theathletic.com/5214492/2024...rankings-2024/
23 VGK - https://theathletic.com/5214501/2024...rankings-2024/
22 NJ - https://theathletic.com/5235251/2024...rankings-2024/
21 DAL - https://theathletic.com/5239029/2024...rankings-2024/
20 WSH - https://theathletic.com/5242141/2024...rankings-2024/
19 NYR - https://theathletic.com/5252641/2024...rankings-2024/
 
Pastor Of Muppetz said:
In Scott Wheelers 2024 Prospect rankings, it looks like the Canucks are not in the bottom 1/3 of league rankings..Quite the step up from a few years ago.

32 NYI - https://theathletic.com/5040967/2024...rankings-2024/
31 OTT - https://theathletic.com/5102037/2024...rankings-2024/
30 BOS - https://theathletic.com/5114411/2024...rankings-2024/
29 TB - https://theathletic.com/5190377/2024...rankings-2024/
28 TOR - https://theathletic.com/5190753/2024...rankings-2024/
27 PIT - https://theathletic.com/5193446/2024...rankings-2024/
26 COL - https://theathletic.com/5196396/2024...rankings-2024/
25 EDM - https://theathletic.com/5214044/2024...rankings-2024/
24 FLA - https://theathletic.com/5214492/2024...rankings-2024/
23 VGK - https://theathletic.com/5214501/2024...rankings-2024/
22 NJ - https://theathletic.com/5235251/2024...rankings-2024/
21 DAL - https://theathletic.com/5239029/2024...rankings-2024/
20 WSH - https://theathletic.com/5242141/2024...rankings-2024/
19 NYR - https://theathletic.com/5252641/2024...rankings-2024/
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I'd love to see the explanation for Edmonton being ahead of Colorado.

I'm guessing they're including Broberg? But I still wouldn't trade Calum Ritchie for the entire Oilers farm system. And they have Gulyayev as well who would also easily be the #1 Oilers prospect.
 
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MS said:
I'd love to see the explanation for Edmonton being ahead of Colorado.

I'm guessing they're including Broberg? But I still wouldn't trade Calum Ritchie for the entire Oilers farm system. And they have Gulyayev as well who would also easily be the #1 Oilers prospect.
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I think it comes down to he likes Holloway more than Ritchie.

Oilers:

There are still some decent young players coming — players who may be able to contribute during this window — but their pool isn’t going to produce top-of-the-lineup types. With Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway set to age out and/or graduate to the NHL, their ranking could continue to slide if they don’t hang onto their first- and second-round picks in 2024 as well (they’ve already dealt their picks in Rounds 3 and 4). I considered ranking them a little lower this year, even.

Avalanche:

Last year’s last-ranked pool moves up thanks to the addition of two new top prospects from the 2023 draft. The Avs’ pool remains the thinnest in the league after its top three, though, after having made less than their allotted seven picks in four straight drafts and fewer players making their list than any other team.
 
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Vector said:
I think it comes down to he likes Holloway more than Ritchie.

Oilers:

There are still some decent young players coming — players who may be able to contribute during this window — but their pool isn’t going to produce top-of-the-lineup types. With Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway set to age out and/or graduate to the NHL, their ranking could continue to slide if they don’t hang onto their first- and second-round picks in 2024 as well (they’ve already dealt their picks in Rounds 3 and 4). I considered ranking them a little lower this year, even.

Avalanche:

Last year’s last-ranked pool moves up thanks to the addition of two new top prospects from the 2023 draft. The Avs’ pool remains the thinnest in the league after its top three, though, after having made less than their allotted seven picks in four straight drafts and fewer players making their list than any other team.
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Why is Holloway even a prospect?

He's played 4 AHL games this year on a conditioning stint and otherwise spent the entire year in the NHL. And spent almost all of last year in the AHL, too.

Nils Aman should be well inside our top-10 prospects, too, if that's the criteria as he's spent more AHL time/less NHL time in each of the past two seasons than Holloway.

But in any case, Ritchie as a prospect >> Holloway.
 
MS said:
Why is Holloway even a prospect?

He's played 4 AHL games this year on a conditioning stint and otherwise spent the entire year in the NHL. And spent almost all of last year in the AHL, too.

Nils Aman should be well inside our top-10 prospects, too, if that's the criteria as he's spent more AHL time/less NHL time in each of the past two seasons than Holloway.

But in any case, Ritchie as a prospect >> Holloway.
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Criteria​

To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must:

  1. Be under 23 years old. We know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done with the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
  2. Not be a full-time NHL player. This is the arbitrary section of the criteria. Here, I trust my judgment for whether or not a rostered NHL player is still likely to bounce between levels more than I trust any pre-determined games played cutoff. Preference for inclusion as an NHL prospect is more likely to be given to teenagers than 22-year-olds.
  3. Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Players who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.
To be eligible for inclusion, a goalie must:

  1. Be under 25 years old. This age criteria is more reflective of the typical goalie trajectory, allowing for the continued consideration of a small number of 23- and 24-year-old goalies who are very much still prospects.
  2. Not currently established as one of their NHL club’s two go-to options.
  3. Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Goalies who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.
 
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Vector said:

Criteria​

To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must:

  1. Be under 23 years old. We know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done with the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
  2. Not be a full-time NHL player. This is the arbitrary section of the criteria. Here, I trust my judgment for whether or not a rostered NHL player is still likely to bounce between levels more than I trust any pre-determined games played cutoff. Preference for inclusion as an NHL prospect is more likely to be given to teenagers than 22-year-olds.
  3. Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Players who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.
To be eligible for inclusion, a goalie must:

  1. Be under 25 years old. This age criteria is more reflective of the typical goalie trajectory, allowing for the continued consideration of a small number of 23- and 24-year-old goalies who are very much still prospects.
  2. Not currently established as one of their NHL club’s two go-to options.
  3. Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Goalies who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.
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Weird cut-offs.

Holloway has spent the entire season on an NHL roster minus a conditioning stint after getting hurt so to me he'd be a 'full time NHL player'.

I'll continue to say that the weird arbitrary cut-offs these guys use always suck and Calder Trophy eligibility should just be the obvious litmus test for what is considered a prospect. If you are eligible to win the trophy for the league's best rookie, you are prospect. If you've had your rookie season already or you are too old for that trophy, you are not a prospect.
 
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MS said:
I'd love to see the explanation for Edmonton being ahead of Colorado.

I'm guessing they're including Broberg? But I still wouldn't trade Calum Ritchie for the entire Oilers farm system. And they have Gulyayev as well who would also easily be the #1 Oilers prospect.
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Wheeler had a tweet or tweet thread basically explaining that he found it hard to really rank the teams this year. Said in his opinion, the mid-20s range through to #10 are just one big tier with not much distinction. So I don't think there is really much/if any difference between COL and EDM.
 
bossram said:
Wheeler had a tweet or tweet thread basically explaining that he found it hard to really rank the teams this year. Said in his opinion, the mid-20s range through to #10 are just one big tier with not much distinction. So I don't think there is really much/if any difference between COL and EDM.
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Comparing those two teams, Calum Ritchie is the best prospect on either team by a mile.

Like, if you were to offer me :

a) Calum Ritchie

or

b) Literally every prospect in Edmonton's entire system

I'd take (a) and I wouldn't have to think that hard about it. And on top of that Gulyayev is the 2nd best prospect between those two teams.

I remember a similar thing around the time Benning was fired when our system was ranked ahead of Seattle's and I said I'd trade every prospect we had for Matty Beniers ... and that's proven out as the correct take. We essentially would have traded Silovs/Woo/Klimovich for a Calder-winning young C.
 
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MS said:
Comparing those two teams, Calum Ritchie is the best prospect on either team by a mile.

Like, if you were to offer me :

a) Calum Ritchie

b) Literally every prospect in Edmonton's entire system

I'd take (a) and I wouldn't have to think that hard about it. And on top of that Gulyayev is the 2nd best prospect between those two teams.

I remember a similar thing around the time Benning was fired when our system was ranked ahead of Seattle's and I said I'd trade every prospect we had for Matty Beniers ... and that's proven out as the correct take. We essentially would have traded Silovs/Woo/Klimovich for a Calder-winning young C.
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I think Ritchie is the best prospect of both groups too, but prospects are still voodoo. I don't really have a harsh stance either way, considering development can be volatile.
 
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wheeler just values quantity a fair bit. colorado has basically nothing past gulyayev and ritchie (maybe behrens or hanzel work out but probably not) while edmonton has 7-8 guys who might be something
 
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When you combine questionable scouting and drafting, with a propensity to trade away first and second rounders, your prospect pool ends up in the sewer.

That pretty well describe the previous regime. They traded so many draft picks for other team's failed prospects that it hurt the brain. And then when you fail to hit on the limited number of draft picks you do have, well the results speak for themselves.

It's strange.....with the latest deal for Lindholm, the current regime has probably traded as many first and second rounders as Benning did. But the picks they did make--D-Petey, Wilander and Lekkerimaki look like true blue-chippers.
 
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bossram said:
I think Ritchie is the best prospect of both groups too, but prospects are still voodoo. I don't really have a harsh stance either way, considering development can be volatile.
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I mean, of course prospect development is volatile. But I don't think you can use that as a catch-all excuse for bad rankings.

Ritchie is really good and is tracking to be a quality NHL C in short order. Edmonton's best prospects (if you can even call them that at this point) are two guys in their draft+5 who have totally stagnated approaching waiver eligibility.

credulous said:
wheeler just values quantity a fair bit. colorado has basically nothing past gulyayev and ritchie (maybe behrens or hanzel work out but probably not) while edmonton has 7-8 guys who might be something
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And I mean, that's my point - valuing quantity over quality when it comes to prospects is a really bad worldview.

One blue-chip top-25 prospect like Ritchie (or Willander) is worth more than a whole bucketful of those B/C-level prospects.
 
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Yes Ritchie and Gulyayev are still potentailly impact players where Holloway and Broberg are long term projects who should help in middle six and 4-6 D roles if things progress. I dont see anything else that looks like they are tracking to be anything but depth at best.

Annunen is a good goalie prospect for COL and NIkolai Kovalenko has some potential also but is 24 now.

We have better
 
MS said:
I mean, of course prospect development is volatile. But I don't think you can use that as a catch-all excuse for bad rankings.

Ritchie is really good and is tracking to be a quality NHL C in short order. Edmonton's best prospects (if you can even call them that at this point) are two guys in their draft+5 who have totally stagnated approaching waiver eligibility.



And I mean, that's my point - valuing quantity over quality when it comes to prospects is a really bad worldview.

One blue-chip top-25 prospect like Ritchie (or Willander) is worth more than a whole bucketful of those B/C-level prospects.
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Is it bad scouting to prefer one good propsect who's still in junior, over a couple other ones who appear to have stagnated but are playing pro/NHL minutes? Idk either way dude. And again, the difference here is basically negligible for Wheeler.
 
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