Speculation: The 2020 Draft Thread: Part 1

[Jim Bob]

I mean, if you went back through previous drafts and redid them just based on draft year stats, I think you'd come out ahead of the professional scouts more often than is comforting to see. So that's definitely a real concern.

If Lundell turns out good but not great (let's say he's a middle of the pack 2nd liner), I doubt anyone's gonna be happy if we passed over 1st line talents to take him.

I would expect that how well Lundell fits into the overall forward corps and if the team's offense improves as better barometers of the pick than just 1st line vs 2nd line.

If they take Lundell, you could see Cozens playing 2c like a middle of the pack 1st liner and then Lundell playing 3C like a middle of the pack 2nd liner. Add in Asplund as a good 4C and you go from center being a position of weakness to one of strength. And if we get to that point, I doubt too many people that are level headed and intelligent would have issues with the pick.

Just like was Jordan Staal a bad pick as a 3C in Pittsburgh behind Crosby & Malkin?

Toews, Backstrom, & Kessel have better stat lines. But, Staal fit better with what they needed behind Crosby and Malkin.

Honestly, I won't be surprised if Lundell is off the board when the Sabres pick.

 

[jc17]

The problem is that the defense in Canadian Juniors this season (particularly the OHL) was virtually non-existent so judging guys on offense is difficult.

Even adjusting for the increase in scoring, Perfetti and Rossi had pretty good seasons, which would make it hard to pass on those guys even though what I watched of Perfetti left me pretty uninspired.

You just always run the risk of getting Drouin, Gagner, Petan, Weal, Grigorenko, etc

Now I've spent a lot more time looking at Canadian junior stats and how they translate. Idk how accurate Liiga stats are for future projection, but took this from a youtube video. By the end of the year Lundell dropped to .64 pts/game. These are draft eligible guys since the 00/01 season I believe. Kind of a mixed bag

 

[jc17]

I would expect that how well Lundell fits into the overall forward corps and if the team's offense improves as better barometers of the pick than just 1st line vs 2nd line.

If they take Lundell, you could see Cozens playing 2c like a middle of the pack 1st liner and then Lundell playing 3C like a middle of the pack 2nd liner. Add in Asplund as a good 4C and you go from center being a position of weakness to one of strength. And if we get to that point, I doubt too many people that are level headed and intelligent would have issues with the pick.

Just like was Jordan Staal a bad pick as a 3C in Pittsburgh behind Crosby & Malkin?

Toews, Backstrom, & Kessel have better stat lines. But, Staal fit better with what they needed behind Crosby and Malkin.

Honestly, I won't be surprised if Lundell is off the board when the Sabres pick.

Its such a fine line to walk.

On one hand I agree with your visualization of what the team could be if Lundell brings what it looks like he can bring. On the other hand, you dont want to be the team that passes on the guy that produced at every level, and then continues to produce at the NHL as if its some surprise while you're stuck with a guy that couldnt make the transition.

 

[Jim Bob]

Its such a fine line to walk.

On one hand I agree with your visualization of what the team could be if Lundell brings what it looks like he can bring. On the other hand, you dont want to be the team that passes on the guy that produced at every level, and then continues to produce at the NHL as if its some surprise while you're stuck with a guy that couldnt make the transition.

What player like that would you envision being there at 7 that the Sabres are passing on?

Perfetti would seem to be the only likely guy that would be there at 7 that falls into that bucket for me.

Personally, I would lean towards taking Perfetti in that spot. But, I wouldn't be overly frustrated with that pick. Honestly, as long as the pick isn't Askarov or Sanderson, I will be surprised if I am frustrated with the pick in the near to medium term.

If Drysdale falls to the Sabres, I will curse the teams in front of the Sabres and not Botts for that pick.

It will be more about fit and player development long term and that won't be something to judge immediately.

 

[flashsabre]

My hope is that one of Rossi or Raymond drop to 7. If not, Perfetti or Holtz bring an offensive skill set that this team needs.

Rossi has everything you want in a top 6 centre including being great at the face off circle, something this team is desperate for. Raymond just has that special quality about him and reminds me a lot of Marner.

 

[Der Jaeger]

My hope is that one of Rossi or Raymond drop to 7. If not, Perfetti or Holtz bring an offensive skill set that this team needs.

Rossi has everything you want in a top 6 centre including being great at the face off circle, something this team is desperate for. Raymond just has that special quality about him and reminds me a lot of Marner.

I think the top 6 picks, in not particular order, will be Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Drysdale, Rossi, Raymond. Sabres will have Holtz, Perfetti, and Lundell to choose from.

 

[jc17]

What player like that would you envision being there at 7 that the Sabres are passing on?

Perfetti would seem to be the only likely guy that would be there at 7 that falls into that bucket for me.

Personally, I would lean towards taking Perfetti in that spot. But, I wouldn't be overly frustrated with that pick. Honestly, as long as the pick isn't Askarov or Sanderson, I will be surprised if I am frustrated with the pick in the near to medium term.

If Drysdale falls to the Sabres, I will curse the teams in front of the Sabres and not Botts for that pick.

It will be more about fit and player development long term and that won't be something to judge immediately.

I think its hard to tell where guys will land outside the top 4. It seems like most people think Rossi and Raymond will probably be gone before 7 and Holtz and Perfetti have the best chance of being available but we really dont know. All it takes is one team valuing a player higher than expected and it changes things. So it wouldnt surprise me if any of Holtz, Perfetti, Rossi, and Raymond are available at 7.

In addition to any of them, if we're talking strictly CHL production, Jarvis and to a lesser extent Zary fit the bill. Going back to 08, of the canadian juniors Rossi, Jarvis, Perfetti, and Zary are the 4th, 11th, 19th, and 22nd highest draft year scorers respectively. In that top 22 group, only Petan has really "busted" while Drouin and R. Strome have maybe under performed the most.

So while Jarvis would be considered a big reach by many, is drafting a guy who's production aligns him with 1 recent bust that big of a risk? And again, while every year people say "player x isnt even in the same tier as players y and z, why would you draft them there?", we know that 5 years after a draft that all goes out the window. This isnt me trying to fight for Jarvis or Zary, but why they should probably be in the conversation at least.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think the top 6 picks, in not particular order, will be Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Drysdale, Rossi, Raymond. Sabres will have Holtz, Perfetti, and Lundell to choose from.

I have to think that at least one of those 6 falls to 7. There always seems to be a WT***** pick in the top 5-8 picks.

Like the Wings taking Seider at 6 last year and Cozens and Zegras falling to the Sabres.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I have to think that at least one of those 6 falls to 7. There always seems to be a WT***** pick in the top 5-8 picks.

Like the Wings taking Seider at 6 last year and Cozens and Zegras falling to the Sabres.

That’s my hope. Give me any one of those guys. I’m hoping Raymond, but will be happy with any.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I have to think that at least one of those 6 falls to 7. There always seems to be a WT***** pick in the top 5-8 picks.

Like the Wings taking Seider at 6 last year and Cozens and Zegras falling to the Sabres.

Agree. I just look at my tiers and see the cut at 6

T1: Lafreniere
T2: Byfield, Stutzle
T3: Rossi, Drysdale, Raymond

 

[Jim Bob]

Agree. I just look at my tiers and see the cut at 6

T1: Lafreniere
T2: Byfield, Stutzle
T3: Rossi, Drysdale, Raymond

If Rossi or Raymond falls to the Sabres and they take Lundell, it will be fun around here.

 

[Jim Bob]

Wheeler: Why Jan Mysak is one of the 2020 NHL Draft's top...

 

[jc17]

CHL top propects game from January

• Byfield was pretty ineffective offensively. Made some nice defensive plays
• Rossi had a strong o-zone presence and forecheck
• Quinn, Zary, Bourque, and Grieg each made some nice plays
• If Drysdale falls and we take a d-man I wont be too upset
• Perfetti seemed to play as advertised. Not really doing anything to take over the game but had good moments when the puck came to him. Pretty good stick-work breaking up opponents plays and retaining the puck when pressured by defense.
• Jarvis was pretty quiet for playing with Laf but didnt look bad

 

[Jim Bob]

Lundell over Perfetti at eight.

Lundell has the potential to become the next Patrice Bergeron. He is an outstanding two-way centerman and has tremendous offensive upside. In addition, Lundell's skating is underrated. His stride is effortless. He will provide the Sabres with another asset at center.

 

[Ace]

What player like that would you envision being there at 7 that the Sabres are passing on?

Perfetti would seem to be the only likely guy that would be there at 7 that falls into that bucket for me.

Personally, I would lean towards taking Perfetti in that spot. But, I wouldn't be overly frustrated with that pick. Honestly, as long as the pick isn't Askarov or Sanderson, I will be surprised if I am frustrated with the pick in the near to medium term.

If Drysdale falls to the Sabres, I will curse the teams in front of the Sabres and not Botts for that pick.

It will be more about fit and player development long term and that won't be something to judge immediately.

I am on team Perfetti.

And while I agree that if Drysdale were to fall my anger would be at the teams in front of them and not on Botterill for taking the draft value and running...within moments remembering that he is utterly incapable of making trades to help this franchise will swing my anger right back at him. Now I’ll have yet another D and no hope of turning them into anything.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Lundell over Perfetti at eight.

Compares Lundell to Bergeron.

I think I would do that too. Still hoping for one of the top 6 to fall

 

[flashsabre]

If Rossi or Raymond falls to the Sabres and they take Lundell, it will be fun around here.

Wait until Rossi and Raymond both fall to 7 and they take Sanderson

 

[jc17]

Poised Lundell not pressured by draft expectations

 

[Jim Bob]

Walsh: I haven't talked to any GMs who want early June draft

Biggest NHL draft busts: Atlantic Division

Buffalo Sabres

The pick: Shawn Anderson (No. 5, 1986)
GM responsible: Scotty Bowman (1979-86)
Could've had: Vincent Damphousse (6), Brian Leetch (9), Scott Young (11)

Bowman is regarded as the greatest head coach of all time, but his resume as general manager isn't nearly as strong. After missing the postseason for the first time in 11 years in 1985-86, the Sabres blew their chance to add a special talent to a roster that already included the likes of Dave Andreychuk, Mike Foligno, and Phil Housley.

Anderson, a 6-foot-1 defenseman out of the University of Maine, failed to carve out a permanent role and was constantly shuffled between the NHL and AHL during his four seasons in Buffalo. The Sabres ended up trading Anderson to the Washington Capitals, who dealt him to the Quebec Nordiques the following day for future considerations.

Passing on a Hall of Fame blue-liner in Leetch to draft a rearguard who lasted just over 100 games in Buffalo is an all-time blunder in the organization's history.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Walsh: I haven't talked to any GMs who want early June draft

Biggest NHL draft busts: Atlantic Division

I’ve seen worse haha

 

[Fezzy126]

The more I watch of the kid, the more I'm all aboard the Raymond train. His IQ on the ice is so impressive, really hoping he somehow falls to us.

 

[jc17]

The more I watch of the kid, the more I'm all aboard the Raymond train. His IQ on the ice is so impressive, really hoping he somehow falls to us.

Its funny, I havent been taken with Raymond yet. There's a big enough contigency talking about how good he is, so I'll chalk it up to my own lack of exposure, than me saying he isn't that good.

One issue I have though is that tweet from Burke. If he hasn't seen what that clip contains from Stutzle, then he hasnt watched Stutzle. His highlight reel is insane, and shows a pretty high IQ. Now if someone wants to argue that Stutzle has a good highlight reel but wont be able to play consistently at the same level as Raymond in the NHL that could be valid.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I’ve had Raymond ahead of Byfield for a while and I’m sticking to it. Raymond is my number 1 hope for this draft.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

The more I watch of the kid, the more I'm all aboard the Raymond train. His IQ on the ice is so impressive, really hoping he somehow falls to us.

If he falls to the Sabres and they don't take him...