Speculation: The 2020 Draft Thread: Part 1

[Buffaloed]

If this kid is available in the 2nd, we'll forget all about Ryan Johnson.

 

[Yultron]

I’m going to be thrilled with either one off Holtz or Perfetti. I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the first 8 players in this draft .

 

[Jim Bob]

2020 NHL Draft: Looking at 9 potential steals in European junior

This whole series has been pretty good.

 

[m0pe]

2020 NHL Draft: Looking at 9 potential steals in European junior

This whole series has been pretty good.

Looks like they listed all the biggest boom or bust prospects.

I would also add Anton Johannesson to this list. Super undersized and skilled D who outproduced all the other SuperElit D who might go 1st round (Wallinder, Grans, Andrae). Could probably pick him up in the mid rounds too.

 

[Jim Bob]

Looks like they listed all the biggest boom or bust prospects.

I would also add Anton Johannesson to this list. Super undersized and skilled D who outproduced all the other SuperElit D who might go 1st round (Wallinder, Grans, Andrae). Could probably pick him up in the mid rounds too.

Once you get past the first round, almost every pick is a boom or bust lottery ticket.

 

[Jim Bob]

Brutal for Bedard in 22-23!

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Brutal for Bedard in 22-23!

Kid’s already better than 2/3 of the Sabres forwards.

 

[Man of Principles]

This pandemic has thrown me out of my yearly routine. It's this time of year that I typically start reading up on prospects and forming my own opinions. Well I haven't done that this year, so I don't know much.

From what I have gathered, I hope they stay away from Sanderson. Tough defensemen who hit don't seem to fare well in today's NHL. The stay-at-home types are mostly not mobile enough to keep up with the skating. To me, I see another Ristolainen. Plus they've already got Samuelsson. Hopefully they're thinking more offense.

I think right now my target is Rossi.

 

[Jim Bob]

This pandemic has thrown me out of my yearly routine. It's this time of year that I typically start reading up on prospects and forming my own opinions. Well I haven't done that this year, so I don't know much.

From what I have gathered, I hope they stay away from Sanderson. Tough defensemen who hit don't seem to fare well in today's NHL. The stay-at-home types are mostly not mobile enough to keep up with the skating. To me, I see another Ristolainen. Plus they've already got Samuelsson. Hopefully they're thinking more offense.

I think right now my target is Rossi.

I would be pleasantly surprised if Rossi falls to the Sabres unless they win the lottery and jump to 3.

And in that spot, I'm guessing they go with Byfield or Stutzle.

Stützle could challenge Byfield for No. 2 pick in 2020 NHL Draft - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Jim Bob]

'Everything still on the table' regarding NHL's draft plans - Sportsnet.ca

 

[jfb392]

This pandemic has thrown me out of my yearly routine. It's this time of year that I typically start reading up on prospects and forming my own opinions. Well I haven't done that this year, so I don't know much.

From what I have gathered, I hope they stay away from Sanderson. Tough defensemen who hit don't seem to fare well in today's NHL. The stay-at-home types are mostly not mobile enough to keep up with the skating. To me, I see another Ristolainen. Plus they've already got Samuelsson. Hopefully they're thinking more offense.

I think right now my target is Rossi.

That’s not really an accurate assessment of Sanderson, I’d do some further research.

If you believe Chad DeDominicis (pretty hit or miss), it sounds like they like Sanderson, so probably best to mentally prepare yourself now.

 

[m0pe]

This pandemic has thrown me out of my yearly routine. It's this time of year that I typically start reading up on prospects and forming my own opinions. Well I haven't done that this year, so I don't know much.

From what I have gathered, I hope they stay away from Sanderson. Tough defensemen who hit don't seem to fare well in today's NHL. The stay-at-home types are mostly not mobile enough to keep up with the skating. To me, I see another Ristolainen. Plus they've already got Samuelsson. Hopefully they're thinking more offense.

I think right now my target is Rossi.

Yeah Sanderson and Ristolainen aren't comparable at all.

Although he is a tough and physical D, that doesn't mean he is a stay at home guy who can't skate. Skating is one of the best aspects of his game. He is very good defensively but also has some offensive upside to his game. He is one of the youngest players in the draft and made some big strides this year.

All that being said, I do hope for more offense with this pick. A future top-4 defensive LD to play behind Dahlin wouldn't be the end of the world. But with so many good forwards, unless Drysdale slips, offense is the way to go.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[m0pe]

Chad's list is actually one of the better ones I have seen.

I still have some reservations (Lundell a little high, Hirvonen and O'Rourke in the 1st, Stranges anywhere near the list) but for the most part I think it is pretty solid.

 

[sabremike]

That’s not really an accurate assessment of Sanderson, I’d do some further research.

If you believe Chad DeDominicis (pretty hit or miss), it sounds like they like Sanderson, so probably best to mentally prepare yourself now.

In our last two drafts we have essentially had 4 first round picks. 3 were used on defensemen. If they use this first to take yet ANOTHER defenseman and continue to ignore the biggest weakness in our entire organization (extreme lack of forward depth) that's probably the point where I'm done.

 

[Jim Bob]

Reviewing Jason Botterill's Draft History with the Sabres

 

[jfb392]

In our last two drafts we have essentially had 4 first round picks. 3 were used on defensemen. If they use this first to take yet ANOTHER defenseman and continue to ignore the biggest weakness in our entire organization (extreme lack of forward depth) that's probably the point where I'm done.

I understand the optics of it, but the biggest weakness in the organization is an overall lack of talented skaters (goalies might be fine, but voodoo, so who knows).
If you take a look at the organizational depth as a whole, you will find that there are probably less than ten skaters in the organization, whether that be signed or unsigned, that will be impact players for this organization long-term.

This is not me endorsing taking Sanderson in any way, but instead, playing devil’s advocate.
When you’ve been terrible for an entire decade and still lack that much talent, both on your team and in your pipeline, you can’t really afford to be picky.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Very solid list. I like Lundell at 7. I think he's close to NHL ready and would be exactly what the Sabres need at center.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Very solid list. I like Lundell at 7. I think he's close to NHL ready and would be exactly what the Sabres need at center.

Seems like scouts have kind of polarized opinions on him. I suppose if we end up with him, all you can do is hope the "low ceiling" crowd is wrong.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I agree with the top of the draft, since I take any of those 6 before Lundell. I also take Holtz before him, though.

 

[sabremike]

Seems like scouts have kind of polarized opinions on him. I suppose if we end up with him, all you can do is hope the "low ceiling" crowd is wrong.

Literally the first thing I thought when I saw that scouting report is "If he's available we are taking him". High Floor/Low Ceiling draft pics are to Botts what low skilled grinders are to Lou Lamorello.

 

[jc17]

Seems like scouts have kind of polarized opinions on him. I suppose if we end up with him, all you can do is hope the "low ceiling" crowd is wrong.

There's a spectrum of ceilings and floors though. Too often all the "low ceiling" guys get grouped together and the "low floor" get grouped together but in reality they are far from the same.

Lundell's ceiling might be lower than Raymond, Rossi, Holtz, Perfetti, but that doesnt mean he cant become a really good player. The CHL players I mentioned scored at insane rates, so their offensive ceiling is pretty high. If their scoring is indicative of their NHL potential they could be among the likes of stamkos, tavares, seguin, hall, marner, and maybe Lundell just doesnt have that potential.

But its not like every player has a ceiling of either Jack Eichel or Zemgus Girgensons. There is a middle ground, and one that the Sabres could still certainly use. We just finished our second year in a row that we didnt even have more than 3 forwards breaking 40 points.

Lundell could still flop too. Low ceiling doesnt mean bust-proof so I dont want to insinuate I think we should pick him "to be safe". Just that his lack of ceiling shouldnt automatically be a deterrent.

 

[tsujimoto74]

There's a spectrum of ceilings and floors though. Too often all the "low ceiling" guys get grouped together and the "low floor" get grouped together but in reality they are far from the same.

Lundell's ceiling might be lower than Raymond, Rossi, Holtz, Perfetti, but that doesnt mean he cant become a really good player. The CHL players I mentioned scored at insane rates, so their offensive ceiling is pretty high. If their scoring is indicative of their NHL potential they could be among the likes of stamkos, tavares, seguin, hall, marner, and maybe Lundell just doesnt have that potential.

But its not like every player has a ceiling of either Jack Eichel or Zemgus Girgensons. There is a middle ground, and one that the Sabres could still certainly use. We just finished our second year in a row that we didnt even have more than 3 forwards breaking 40 points.

Lundell could still flop too. Low ceiling doesnt mean bust-proof so I dont want to insinuate I think we should pick him "to be safe". Just that his lack of ceiling shouldnt automatically be a deterrent.

I mean, if you went back through previous drafts and redid them just based on draft year stats, I think you'd come out ahead of the professional scouts more often than is comforting to see. So that's definitely a real concern.

If Lundell turns out good but not great (let's say he's a middle of the pack 2nd liner), I doubt anyone's gonna be happy if we passed over 1st line talents to take him.

 

[Jim Bob]

There's a spectrum of ceilings and floors though. Too often all the "low ceiling" guys get grouped together and the "low floor" get grouped together but in reality they are far from the same.

Lundell's ceiling might be lower than Raymond, Rossi, Holtz, Perfetti, but that doesnt mean he cant become a really good player. The CHL players I mentioned scored at insane rates, so their offensive ceiling is pretty high. If their scoring is indicative of their NHL potential they could be among the likes of stamkos, tavares, seguin, hall, marner, and maybe Lundell just doesnt have that potential.

But its not like every player has a ceiling of either Jack Eichel or Zemgus Girgensons. There is a middle ground, and one that the Sabres could still certainly use. We just finished our second year in a row that we didnt even have more than 3 forwards breaking 40 points.

Lundell could still flop too. Low ceiling doesnt mean bust-proof so I dont want to insinuate I think we should pick him "to be safe". Just that his lack of ceiling shouldnt automatically be a deterrent.

Lundell doesn't strike me as your typical "low ceiling" player.

I think his ceiling is as an elite two-way center like Sean Couturier, Patrice Bergeron, and a certain ex-Sabre who shall not be named. The highest drafted player in that group was Couturier at 8OV. And the other two players were second round picks!

With who the Sabres already have, Lundell and Cozens could go along with Eichel and Asplund to give them really good center depth with a lot of size and two-way ability.

I know that +/- is a flawed stat. But, it is intriguing that Lundell was tied for the best +/- on HIFK in his draft season.

I think he could very well be a middle class man's Barkov.

 

[sabremike]

There's a spectrum of ceilings and floors though. Too often all the "low ceiling" guys get grouped together and the "low floor" get grouped together but in reality they are far from the same.

Lundell's ceiling might be lower than Raymond, Rossi, Holtz, Perfetti, but that doesnt mean he cant become a really good player. The CHL players I mentioned scored at insane rates, so their offensive ceiling is pretty high. If their scoring is indicative of their NHL potential they could be among the likes of stamkos, tavares, seguin, hall, marner, and maybe Lundell just doesnt have that potential.

But its not like every player has a ceiling of either Jack Eichel or Zemgus Girgensons. There is a middle ground, and one that the Sabres could still certainly use. We just finished our second year in a row that we didnt even have more than 3 forwards breaking 40 points.

Lundell could still flop too. Low ceiling doesnt mean bust-proof so I dont want to insinuate I think we should pick him "to be safe". Just that his lack of ceiling shouldnt automatically be a deterrent.

The problem is that the defense in Canadian Juniors this season (particularly the OHL) was virtually non-existent so judging guys on offense is difficult.