Just a quick note, here is the exact text about Nations League:
12.10.1. The top four (4) teams in the ranking have been pre-seeded in theQuarterfinals matchups, using the Concacaf Rankings after the InternationalWindow of October 2024 as follows:
Canada dropped to 39 (when other games happened) but are directly behind Panama.
A win against Mexico and Canada would pass Panama. A draw and Canada would be 0.03 behind Panama.
The October window has Canada playing Panama (while Panama plays Canada and the US but no one this window). Winning all three games for Canada would allow them to play the lower of the two group winners (which are likely Honduras and Costa Rica).
Another quick Nations League note: The Semi-finals are ranked based on how teams did in the quarterfinal (with ranking being the last tiebreaker).
Edit: I've been reading that wrong. Canada is now 3rd in the Concacaf Rankings (
Men's National Team) which is not based on the world rankings.
The Concacaf system is a lot harder to calculate, but right now, Canada is 1769 and the US is 1805. If Canada beats Mexico, I believe that they would go to 1792 (I believe that a neutral site game follows basic ELO principles), but calculating for any game where a team is home or away is more difficult because the calculation isn't public (though the implications of each game are made aware to the clubs). The US's game against New Zealand does count towards CONCACAF rankings and is a home game for them, so if NZ gets slotted in as a Honduras level opponent, the US would likely only need to win that game and draw Panama to stay above Canada.
Without being able to compensate for home/away and putting New Zealand in as a direct Honduras comparable (they are pretty close in world rankings), a win add 2 points to the US (before the home field adjustment), but a loss would drop them to 1772 and a draw would drop them to 1790 (both numbers would be lower because of home field and both would be below Canada if Canada were to beat Mexico).