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Tanks in the Desert (With the #1 OA pick, the Coyotes Select...Connor Bedard!)

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Sinurgy

Sinurgy

Approaching infinity
Feb 8, 2004
12,651
4,362
AZ
rt said:
I think we can save ourselves a lot of worrying about all these rules by simply winning the 1st overall with Arizona’s pick. Then none of us will really care what happens with Ottawa’s pick.
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Shit not only would I no longer worry about it, I would give it away as tribute!
 
SpaceCoyote

SpaceCoyote

Registered User
Jul 10, 2013
602
374
Wasting away
0.3825% chance of both Arizona and Ottawa winning the lottery

12.2175% chance of either team winning the lottery

80.2008% chance that both teams don't win the lottery
 
PainForShane

PainForShane

formerly surfshop
Dec 24, 2019
2,784
3,230
SpaceCoyote said:
0.3825% chance of both Arizona and Ottawa winning the lottery

12.2175% chance of either team winning the lottery

80.2008% chance that both teams don't win the lottery
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No idea where these numbers are coming from -- I did some of this out for curiosity's sake and found that AZ's chance of winning either lottery (just AZ's pick) is 15.1%. Which is a few decimal places lower than tankathon's but I trust my math (if you trust their math instead, it's 15.4%). Either way if AZ is ~15% then how can the chance of either team be less than that.

Anyway we have ~3x the chance of winning either drawing compared to OTT. Let's see what happens on Monday...
 
Coyotedroppings

Coyotedroppings

Registered User
Jul 16, 2017
6,948
5,793
PainForShane said:
No idea where these numbers are coming from -- I did some of this out for curiosity's sake and found that AZ's chance of winning either lottery (just AZ's pick) is 15.1%. Which is a few decimal places lower than tankathon's but I trust my math (if you trust their math instead, it's 15.4%). Either way if AZ is ~15% then how can the chance of either team be less than that.

Anyway we have ~3x the chance of winning either drawing compared to OTT. Let's see what happens on Monday...
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I’m a patient and happily waiting until Monday.;)
 

Jakey53

Registered User
Aug 27, 2011
30,531
9,435
PainForShane said:
Guys this isn't complicated. Canis is right in everything he said (thx Canis) but might be more effective just to walk through everything step by step.

***

Anyway for Jakey's specific question, the key point is that there are two drawings. Two completely separate drawings, one for 1OA and the other for 2OA. That NHL table is talking about only the 1st drawing (ie chance of picking 1OA).

If Ottawa wins the 1st one, like you said they jump 10 spots and are guaranteed to pick #2 (and ANA picks 1). But, if a team with a better draft position than Ottawa wins the first drawing then THAT team picks 1OA and the other drawing takes place for #2 (which could still go OTT's way). Either way after the first drawing the teams are re-seeded so that the same team can't win both drawings.

Anyway the difference in % is because If Ottawa doesn't win the first lottery, they're absolutely in the mix for the second overall pick. If they win THAT draw, in vast majority of cases they will jump 10 spots and then pick #2. There are a few edge cases that Canis rightly mentioned but the reason OTT has a 5.4% chance of picking 2-4 is because there is a drawing for the first pick and a separate drawing for the second pick.

There are some edge cases which have to do with the fact no team can jump more than ten spots in either drawing. So if a team with a worse draft position than OTT wins the first drawing then OTT drops a spot during the re-seeding -- so then the highest they could go is 3. But if BUF wins the lottery then BUF is locked into 3 so if OTT wins the 2nd drawing they'd ordinarily jump 10 spots to 3, but if BUF wins that first drawing they've already locked up #3 so OTT would slide to 4.

***

TLDR: 2 drawings, one for 1OA and the other (likely) for 2OA. 2.5% chance Ottawa wins the first, 5.4% total chance Ottawa wins either the first or the second, that 5.4% includes all of the edge cases in prior paragraph. Either way 94.6% chance Ott does NOT win the lottery which would mean we get their pick this year (most likely 12OA)
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The draw is not for 1OA or 2OA, it's just gives a team a chance for 1OA or 2OA, depending on where they are in the standings. Not sure if that what you mean or not. Also, I read that the first lottery winner gets locked in at that spot, and I THINK the Ducks do as well. The only way the Ducks lose 1OA is if the first lottery goes to a team in the top 11. The second lottery placement is somewhat dependent of what happens in the first lottery. So for example, if Ottawa wins the first lottery they pick second, the Ducks would still hold on to 1OA, and those two are locked in. If the Coyotes won the second lottery, they would move up to 3OA. That's my understanding, but I could be completely wrong.:laugh:
 
SpaceCoyote

SpaceCoyote

Registered User
Jul 10, 2013
602
374
Wasting away
PainForShane said:
No idea where these numbers are coming from -- I did some of this out for curiosity's sake and found that AZ's chance of winning either lottery (just AZ's pick) is 15.1%. Which is a few decimal places lower than tankathon's but I trust my math (if you trust their math instead, it's 15.4%). Either way if AZ is ~15% then how can the chance of either team be less than that.

Anyway we have ~3x the chance of winning either drawing compared to OTT. Let's see what happens on Monday...
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My numbers are all based on combined probability, two events happening with or without the other. For example yotes winning first overall and sens 2nd (using 1 as 100% probability)

.075 (Yotes win first odds) × .051 (Sens win 2nd odds) = .003825

Alternatively the yotes get 1st or sens get 2nd or both (best possible outcome for either team).

.075 + .051 - 0.003825 = 0.122175

Finally neither team winning,

.846 (odds of yotes draft 6-8) × .948 (odds sens draft 12-14)= .802008

There is probably some minor variance, I'm sure the Ottawa odds increase slightly if the yotes win the 1st pick for example.
 
Last edited:
Sinurgy

Sinurgy

Approaching infinity
Feb 8, 2004
12,651
4,362
AZ
AZviaNJ

AZviaNJ

“Sure as shit want to F*** Coyote fans.”
Mar 31, 2011
6,744
4,461
AZ
Fully expecting 6/7 and 12/13…..and that’s a great spot to be:

At 6/7 Michkov if he falls…or maybe the best Dman in the draft in Reinbacher….or the next best forward available (Smith, Benson)

At 12/13 BPA…maybe Dvorsky falls this far, Yager? Leonard? Maybe a big kid like Wood…who seems like a BA type pick.

No matter what happens we’re coming away with 2 terrific prospects.
 
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Jakey53

Registered User
Aug 27, 2011
30,531
9,435
AZviaNJ said:
Fully expecting 6/7 and 12/13…..and that’s a great spot to be:

At 6/7 Michkov if he falls…or maybe the best Dman in the draft in Reinbacher….or the next best forward available (Smith, Benson)

At 12/13 BPA…maybe Dvorsky falls this far, Yager? Leonard? Maybe a big kid like Wood…who seems like a BA type pick.

No matter what happens we’re coming away with 2 terrific prospects.
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Except the ONE we all want.:)
 

Jamieh

Registered User
Apr 25, 2012
11,416
6,487
Mosby said:
Columbus has had tons of high picks.
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Similar to the Coyotes for the most part. Except a 2nd eleven years ago and 1st 21 years ago. Check out the Flames if you want to see a team that has few higher draft picks
 

Jamieh

Registered User
Apr 25, 2012
11,416
6,487
rt said:
I coach a mites team. We’ve got practice tomorrow. I’m going to be on the ice during the lottery.
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Do kids in AZ play hockey year round? Or does it stop for summer?
 
rt

rt

Clean Hits on Substack
May 13, 2004
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cleanhits.substack.com
RemoAZ said:
Don't slip and fall from shock and break your other leg when one of the parents shout "the Coyotes just won the lottery".
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I fell pretty hard on that same hip in my last game on Thursday night. First time I’ve fallen hard on that spot again. Felt good to make it through without any complications.

But to your point, no gear when coaching. I’m always scared out there with the mites. 50 little unguided missiles flying all over the place, just ready to take out your knees at any moment.
 
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