Toronto, Edmonton, Winnipeg I have little to no hope of falling behind. Either the gap is too large or the team is trending the wrong way.
Columbus seems a decent bet to pass us, while Arizona, Buffalo, and Calgary are possibilities.
See it maybe going down this way:
- Losses next two games to SJ and LA putting us 5 games < .500.
- next 8 games after that are against fairly soft teams so I think we'll go around .500 over those games, leaving us still 5 games < .500.
Next 6 games after that are killer, meaning I think we again go 4-5 games under .500.
Final 3 games against Edm and Calgary I can see us winning 1 or 2.
That would leave us around 72-75 points and likely in a tight bunch with Arizona, CBJ, Buffalo, and Calgary for 4-8. Fortunately we "lose" most tiebreakers so I think 5-6 is maybe where we settle. Gives us both a decent shot to move up to top 3 and a decent shot to move down 1 spot. Don't see 2 teams behind us winning so I'd say that falling 1 is the probable Max.