Strenght of Schedule Ranking

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I was reading through a McDavid thread on the main board when I came upon this website

NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

Looking at the schedule before the season you could see the Habs would have an easy early season, but I didn't know it would be as significant as this:

Top bar, red is hard remaining schedule, black is easy. The average rank on the right is based on the games they've played so far vs the present rankings and represents the average rank of teams left to play against.

We're about to tip into a much harder schedule for the remainder of the year.

Click to read more...

 

[ReHabs]

How many calls for MSL's head will we see? I saw at least three users criticise MSL in the post-game thread from last night.

The best thing about this remaining schedule is that it would give the push for HuGo to 'shake things up' and either waive the major deadweight (Dadanov, Armia) or trade certain players.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Man, I'm surprised people waste time to compile this.

I guess people feel like there's a point to quantify anything and everything.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Man, I'm surprised people waste time to compile this.

I guess people feel like there's a point to quantify anything and everything.

Once the software's up, it's just a question of daily data input, which isn't hard at all and can also be done semi-automatically.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Once the software's up, it's just a question of daily data input, which isn't hard at all and can also be done semi-automatically.

I guess it's just a projection, but feels like a waste of time to do.

A team playing well, might have injuries and not be as powerful. A weak team might have a bit of a roll going on. Things change at the deadline. Hot streaks/cold streaks of players, even the last few games before the playoffs resting players/ just playing a backup in general.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I guess it's just a projection, but feels like a waste of time to do.

A team playing well, might have injuries and not be as powerful. A weak team might have a bit of a roll going on. Things change at the deadline. Hot streaks/cold streaks of players, even the last few games before the playoffs resting players/ just playing a backup in general.

Oh sure, but it's still telling and becomes evenmoreso as the season progresses, because the data set is dynamic, so the more input there is and the less games there are to play both function in making it organically more precise. Same way it's easier to tell who will miss the playoffs at tge end of February than it is in december.

 

[the valiant effort]

It’s been a weird start. Vegas, the Jets, and the Devils are seriously the only well-oiled machines they’ve faced. And I suppose the 2 man team some call McDrai. I omit the Leafs because they did not skate particularly well in October. The next Leafs game in January could unfortunately be throw the TV out the window halfway through the 1st period status for us….

The rest of this season’s matchups so far have been with fellow bottom feeders or teams that were a mess at the time like the Pens (twice) or Blues. It has been a straight up breeze of a schedule so far.

 

[HuGo Sham]

that bottom 5 is in reach! fantilli here we come!

 

[BLONG7]

How many calls for MSL's head will we see? I saw at least three users criticise MSL in the post-game thread from last night.

The best thing about this remaining schedule is that it would give the push for HuGo to 'shake things up' and either waive the major deadweight (Dadanov, Armia) or trade certain players.

There is no way anyone should call for a coaches head, when there is zero goaltending, and 4 rookies on D

MSL is the right coach, as we move forward......can he handle it? Does he have the stomach to send Tank Allen and Monty out, night after night?
Where we finish this year, has zero to do with MSL and his decisions..............and for clarity sake, I don't agree with all his decisions either, but am not in the room when he gets his marching orders from HuGo

 

[JianYang]

How many calls for MSL's head will we see? I saw at least three users criticise MSL in the post-game thread from last night.

The best thing about this remaining schedule is that it would give the push for HuGo to 'shake things up' and either waive the major deadweight (Dadanov, Armia) or trade certain players.

I've been following this club since pat burns was behind the bench.

Every coach is supposedly an idiot in the fan's eyes.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I've been following this club since pat burns was behind the bench.

Every coach is supposedly an idiot in the fan's eyes.

Sadly most of them were.

 

[Gravity]

How many calls for MSL's head will we see? I saw at least three users criticise MSL in the post-game thread from last night.

The best thing about this remaining schedule is that it would give the push for HuGo to 'shake things up' and either waive the major deadweight (Dadanov, Armia) or trade certain players.

We just need to keep with the plan for the rest of the season. Trade the UFAs, Edmondson and Anderson.

 

[bobholly39]

that bottom 5 is in reach! fantilli here we come!

Florida is high on that list, and tied for us in the standings. I said going into this season it was a huge gamble for Florida to shake the roster up so much in the off-season, and so far it clearly hasn't paid off.

Good chance we end up with 2 picks from non-playoff teams who could win the lotto.

I think Calgary's first round pick in comparison is protected, right?

 

[Legend123]

Florida is high on that list, and tied for us in the standings. I said going into this season it was a huge gamble for Florida to shake the roster up so much in the off-season, and so far it clearly hasn't paid off.

Good chance we end up with 2 picks from non-playoff teams who could win the lotto.

I think Calgary's first round pick in comparison is protected, right?

It's a few years away

 

[Habs Icing]

I was reading through a McDavid thread on the main board when I came upon this website

NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

Looking at the schedule before the season you could see the Habs would have an easy early season, but I didn't know it would be as significant as this:

Top bar, red is hard remaining schedule, black is easy. The average rank on the right is based on the games they've played so far vs the present rankings and represents the average rank of teams left to play against.

We're about to tip into a much harder schedule for the remainder of the year.

I don't know how much value you can give to this pseudo-scientific analysis. They based their calculations on their NHL power rankings. How did they arrive at their power rankings? Well, they tell us:

"...Our NHL Power Rankings are calculated by aggregating computer rankings from around the web and determining each team’s average ranking. Up or down movement within our rankings versus the previous week is provided for each team. Some of these sites also project teams’ future success. We collect this info and calculate each team’s average points projection, playoff odds and Stanley Cup champion odds..."

Yeah, that paragraph reeks of bullsh*t.

What exactly do computer rankings mean? An AI was fed data and it ranked the teams. Or some undisclosed internet "pundits" shared their opinions and stored them on their computers? And these other guys aggregated the opinions of these "pundits".

The expression games aren't played on paper has been switched to games are played on computers and somehow with some smoke and mirrors, we believe it to be true.

 

[ArtPeur]

Florida is high on that list, and tied for us in the standings. I said going into this season it was a huge gamble for Florida to shake the roster up so much in the off-season, and so far it clearly hasn't paid off.

Good chance we end up with 2 picks from non-playoff teams who could win the lotto.

I think Calgary's first round pick in comparison is protected, right?

But Florida will play us many times. What if they only get wins?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Interesting data to look at but not to dwell on. At least we can feel comfortable that we won't be moving up the standings and in a position to not trade assets for futures at the deadline.

Slip to bottom 5? Possible but not probable. I say we slip a few spots but games have to be played. Lots of hockey left

 

[Colezuki]

I don't know how much value you can give to this pseudo-scientific analysis. They based their calculations on their NHL power rankings. How did they arrive at their power rankings? Well, they tell us:

"...Our NHL Power Rankings are calculated by aggregating computer rankings from around the web and determining each team’s average ranking. Up or down movement within our rankings versus the previous week is provided for each team. Some of these sites also project teams’ future success. We collect this info and calculate each team’s average points projection, playoff odds and Stanley Cup champion odds..."

Yeah, that paragraph reeks of bullsh*t.

What exactly do computer rankings mean? An AI was fed data and it ranked the teams. Or some undisclosed internet "pundits" shared their opinions and stored them on their computers? And these other guys aggregated the opinions of these "pundits".

The expression games aren't played on paper has been switched to games are played on computers and somehow with some smoke and mirrors, we believe it to be true.

This is nonsense, you clearly don't know what your talking about as AI doesn't exist yet despite everyone using that word to describe what ever with a computer they don't understand. They don't reveal the source or their waiting to various power rankings because that's the value of their platform. All there doing is taking a weighted average ranking of experts and applying it to each team then applying it to each teams schedule. It isn't rocket science.

It's the equivalent of saying over the next five games I play, TB, Tor, Bos, Sea and Car vs. another team playing Ari, Chi, Phi, CBJ and Ott. Do you really believe Our team would walk away with more points then the team playing the bottom feeders? They've just done it on a longer time scale across all 32 teams to illustrate the remaining schedule for the balance of the year. does it means that's a guarantee to happen, no, but it does provide some guidance on what remains.

An example of how this is still early and just illustrates how statistically this is still early on. The average for all teams at the start of the year should be about 16.5 for strength of schedule with some exceptions for harder divisions/conferences. We're #1 and we have 14.8

 

[Habs Icing]

This is nonsense, you clearly don't know what your talking about as AI doesn't exist yet despite everyone using that word to describe what ever with a computer they don't understand. They don't reveal the source or their waiting to various power rankings because that's the value of their platform. All there doing is taking a weighted average ranking of experts and applying it to each team then applying it to each teams schedule. It isn't rocket science.

When I said fed data to an AI I was being sarcastic. Your meter needs to go to the shop.

As for the rest of your post, I'm positive in the 18th and 19th centuries you would be the first one to buy from a snake-oil salesman who uttered the words "based on science."

 

[Sterling Archer]

Love this.

 

[Colezuki]

When I said fed data to an AI I was being sarcastic. Your meter needs to go to the shop.

As for the rest of your post, I'm positive in the 18th and 19th centuries you would be the first one to buy from a snake-oil salesman who uttered the words "based on science."

Well, considering I have a degree in Chemistry with my thesis being in Quantum mechanics I have a better understanding of mathematics then you clearly do, which is all this exercise is. but hey prove me wrong with your "skepticism".

The only valid criticism i'm seeing of the model is it seems like the Guru rank hasn't adjusted since september

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

This is nonsense, you clearly don't know what your talking about as AI doesn't exist yet despite everyone using that word to describe what ever with a computer they don't understand. They don't reveal the source or their waiting to various power rankings because that's the value of their platform. All there doing is taking a weighted average ranking of experts and applying it to each team then applying it to each teams schedule. It isn't rocket science.

It's the equivalent of saying over the next five games I play, TB, Tor, Bos, Sea and Car vs. another team playing Ari, Chi, Phi, CBJ and Ott. Do you really believe Our team would walk away with more points then the team playing the bottom feeders? They've just done it on a longer time scale across all 32 teams to illustrate the remaining schedule for the balance of the year. does it means that's a guarantee to happen, no, but it does provide some guidance on what remains.

An example of how this is still early and just illustrates how statistically this is still early on. The average for all teams at the start of the year should be about 16.5 for strength of schedule with some exceptions for harder divisions/conferences. We're #1 and we have 14.8

I haven't checked the past seasons to see if the process does show tougher or easier schedules, but since we're right up there at an extreme end of the spectrum right now, we will be able to see its predictive power. Pretentions of pseudo science is a mere blimp in the discourse if it does show to be predictive to some degree.

Calgary, Colorado and Edmonton are at the other end of the spectrum.

If it does have predictive power, we should see the Habs struggle compared to the record up to the point I made the thread and we should see the inverse effect with the three teams I named.

 

[DAChampion]

Florida is high on that list, and tied for us in the standings.

Awesome news, let the heavens shower their blessings upon Florida's tank.

 

[Colezuki]

I haven't checked the past seasons to see if the process does show tougher or easier schedules, but since we're right up there at an extreme end of the spectrum right now, we will be able to see its predictive power. Pretentions of pseudo science is a mere blimp in the discourse if it does show to be predictive to some degree.

Calgary, Colorado and Edmonton are at the other end of the spectrum.

If it does have predictive power, we should see the Habs struggle compared to the record up to the point I made the thread and we should see the inverse effect with the three teams I named.

Agreed, I'd love to know if they used a regression model from previous years to determine which rankings to give more weight too. Regardless we should expect to see at end of season how far off they we're from start of season (which they listed in the points section)

 

[Habs Icing]

Well, considering I have a degree in Chemistry with my thesis being in Quantum mechanics I have a better understanding of mathematics then you clearly do, which is all this exercise is. but hey prove me wrong with your "skepticism".

The only valid criticism i'm seeing of the model is it seems like the Guru rank hasn't adjusted since september

It's funny how you point to an element that discredits this "scientific analysis" and fluff it off as an adjustment. At the beginning of the season, they rated the Habs as bottom feeders. They tell you as much. To date, however, the Habs have played as a playoff bubble team and it shows in the standings. So how pucking accurate is this "analysis"? To date, they've shown their analysis is useless when it comes to the Habs. They start with an inaccurate assumption and make calculations and predictions with that assumption. Is that what you did with your thesis? And that's just the Habs. How accurate are they with the other 31 teams? Which compounds their inaccuracy exponentially.