I think we’ll see one of Chicago, Columbus, Anahiem, or Calgary make the claim and if Saad is able to contribute he would be a potential flip at the deadline, if not, he provides flexibility. It’s kind of a win win for a cap floor claim team:
Saad should be valuable to these floor teams because his aav is higher than the cash he is owed, he isn’t some walking medical emergency, his term reduces the level of commitment, and there’s a real chance a team can make a 4th round pick, higher with retention, appear out of thin air in just 3 weeks if Saad comes, puts in some goals, and convinces a contender to add him to the group.
This claim and flip scenario should actually net the claiming team a return, albeit small, although it has to be something because as the next sentence shows, there is value in a team holding him. If he is unable to convince a contender he’s valuable then his 2025/26 cap hit will be used by one of the above teams to give them flexibility - maybe it’s easier to work a Provorov deal, a Gibson deal, or whatever, if you have Saad’s future cap hit to protect against the floor. Maybe a team like Columbus won’t let it’s fate be decided by what ufas are left over after they’re picked through.
The reason this market is not visible is no trade clause. In a scenario where there was no trade protection I predict these floor teams would have entered a mini bidding war for Saad just as they did for Trouba. Since Saad was able to reject all of these teams previously the deal couldn’t be made.
