Don’t be surprised whatever team signs Saad this weekend, isn’t done signing former Blackhawks in early 2025…
Saad still has the speed to beat coverage to the net and his stick speed is still high-end. Good bet he’s a difference maker for whoever gets him. Whether it’s a big time contender like Vegas or Edmonton, or to help a team get into the playoffs. I doubt he gets a 2nd year though and that’s probably by choice, as he’s betting the “percentage of cap increase” this summer, effects his type/class of player.
As for the fallout.. The NHLPA despises when these things go down. The ONLY reason you’re not hearing leaks of very angry reps, is because he’s earned the right to do this, and he’s a very respected player. If this was Dvorak or Compher, we’d be hearing much more screaming from behind the scenes, as 3Cs have been the biggest victim of the cap crunch over the last 4-5 years. Especially with the big cap increase coming, and the expected percentage of that increase, being shifted back to the so-called luxury positions. Your high-end 3Cs who will get the most of that increase after your Star players, then your 4/5 dman, and finally your “experienced Cup winning veteran wingers”, that were all getting those $5 million contracts 5 years ago. The same type of players teams have ended up paying teams to take, and buying out (their contracts) with the small cap increases over these 4-5 years. All so teams can keep their star players, who were not only getting the entire “percentage of increase”, but also the shift in percentage away from those luxury positions, that seen the $5-$6 million high-end 3C drop significantly to $3.5-$4 million.
So if Compher did this for example, the Union and agents would be sketching because their current deals would no longer be on the books for those arguments this summer, to push their percentage of increase. Even though, as I said, it looks like those 3Cs are absolutely getting a significant bump. Fact is, you win cups “up the middle”, so that’s where available money is going to go first, after the stars get their cut.
Still doesn’t mean there aren’t some angry group texts going around, because every player who does this, teams start thinking they can hold it over a veteran’s head. The, “well…. you know we can always agree to terminate your deal, and you won’t have to be riding busses from Laval to Springfield” conversations.
For those who think it’d be a cool experience riding those busses in the minors or juniors, I can confirm it’s only cool the very first time. After that, it’s beyond horrible knowing your knee is killing you, and you don’t wanna ice it down because it’s -10 out. Then a few hour bus ride from Peterborough to Cornwall, turns into a 16 hour trip, after the bus has a problem in the middle of nowhere. It’s not fun.
Going to guess Saad also isn’t the last player to agree to this madness (this year), as some think they’re going to get the money back this summer, and there’s a lot of players sitting with 1 year left on their deals, with little chance of being traded or claimed on waivers THIS season. We’ll have to wait and see if it happens again, but a Tarasenko for example, who took the 2 year deal for $4 million per last summer, may think his numbers would increase going back to Florida let’s say, setting himself up for a bigger deal this summer, with the cap increase.
Players love to bet on themselves when they feel they didn’t get what they thought they were going to get. They think that cap increase will help them obviously.
The biggest problem agents and the NHLPA have is, when you give owners an inch with these terminations, they’ll start asking their managers to push players into doing it, as a habit. Here’s a situation where a player is clearly still an NHL player, yet he was put on waivers this week? All because the Blues don’t like the trade returns they’d get for him. Likely having to take a bad contract in return. Once again a team walks away free of any penalty and the player loses millions is always going to be a red flag for agents and the union.
So it’s not cool what Saad is agreeing to, but it’s now happened and unfortunately these are pro athletes. They’re more than willing to bet on themselves more than not.
This summer is going to be crazy from an agent standpoint. I know they’re preparing for a wild summer with the big jump in cap money. After the big guys get their cut, we’re likely to see our first positional increases in years. Starting with those high end 3Cs getting $5 million deals again, as the “percentage of cap increase” fixes itself from the big decline at certain positions over the last 4-5 years. After that, nobody seems to have a good gauge on the next position to get a nice bump. I’m gonna guess it’s 4/5 Dmen, because once again, you win Cups “up the middle.”
One thing’s for certain. Whether they get away with it, we’ll see, but with all the new money out there to spend, it’ll be interesting how many 3Cs for example, not only end up with $5-$6 million deals again, but how many of them also get full NMCs included, as agents are going to try making sure their clients are protected more when they get these luxury position contracts.
Sam Bennett is going to be the most interesting contract to watch.