Stats : % chance to win best-of-5 series after winning/losing game 1?
- Thread starter De Montreal
- Start date
Goose
Registered User
- Apr 18, 2006
- 3,129
- 4,040
EdJovanovski
#FreeRempe
Since these haven’t happened since the 80’s I don’t know how accurate to say the odds are 89% or whatever they were back then
Correct. Not the same thing now. Only one team in history in the NHL came back from 0-2 down in a best of 5. I don’t think you could assume it’s that tough today since most importantly, these teams aren’t playing in front of fans and traveling. Even in a normal format if we had a best of 5 road arenas aren’t as intimidating anymore, players are better conditioned now and don’t tend to treat the road trips as bachelor parties, and teams as a whole just travel better with better flying and hotel accommodations overall than the 80s.
Same as being up 2-1 in a series, right?
67% chance that the team up 2-1 wins in a best-of-7.
71% if they're the higher seed, 62% if they're the lower seed.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi
67% chance that the team up 2-1 wins in a best-of-7.
71% if they're the higher seed, 62% if they're the lower seed.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi
I heard them talking about this yesterday on the radio and it's something like 49 out of 51 teams to win the first game in a best of 5 have moved on.
That said, this year is different since we have 24th seeds like MTL playing the far superior Pens, but found a way to win. So not really a perfect comparison.
The problem is that's skewed because back in the day when it was best-of-5 there was way less parity in the league. I think we'll see 2 or 3 teams who lost game 1 end up winning the series.
Kamiccolo
Truly wonderful, the mind of a child is.
Are they far superior? They lost 8 playoff games in a row now I think and were skidding out of the playoffs when the season ended.
Ya it's not a perfect comparison, but it's the best we have, with being up 2-1 being the next best.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
I think the lack of any travel, home ice, and fans make any data from previous years pretty unreliable as far as predictive values go.
First of all, none of these numbers represent the chance to win the series, they merely represent the percentage of teams that have accomplished the task in the past.
Also, there have only been 56 3 out of 5 series since at least 1940. So not a very big sample space.
Also, there have only been 56 3 out of 5 series since at least 1940. So not a very big sample space.
Tawnos
A guy with a bass
Plus, one of the announcers yesterday (don’t remember who) pointed out that this was also with true home ice advantage provided by the crowd, so the application of it to this situation might not be all that telling.
Djp
Registered User
I heard it earlier ..it was around 82% first game winner won series
It doesn’t factor in home ice crowd advantage that can act asa motivator for players.
I’d like to see stats of home team losing game 1 coming back to win vs roadteam lising and coming back to win.
Unlike football or basketball...hockey home ice advantage is line matches.
In baseball some teams prefer battling lastknowing what they need to win. Some might prefer going first.
In hickey shootout I’d go last knowing if I need one to tie I can bring out a ringer to do that.
It doesn’t factor in home ice crowd advantage that can act asa motivator for players.
I’d like to see stats of home team losing game 1 coming back to win vs roadteam lising and coming back to win.
Unlike football or basketball...hockey home ice advantage is line matches.
In baseball some teams prefer battling lastknowing what they need to win. Some might prefer going first.
In hickey shootout I’d go last knowing if I need one to tie I can bring out a ringer to do that.
JianYang
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
- 18,582
- 22,888
I don't think this stat is super relevant. The game has changed alot since 5 game series were a thing, and parity plays a much more significant role. Also, the 5 game series of the past never had a major layoff due to a pandemic, which makes things even more unpredictable.
The higher seeds have only gone 3-5 in the game ones so far, which again speaks to the parity and the pandemic wrench. I think there's lots of potential to see teams come back at a higher rate here.
The higher seeds have only gone 3-5 in the game ones so far, which again speaks to the parity and the pandemic wrench. I think there's lots of potential to see teams come back at a higher rate here.
