Stanley Cup Champs and 1st overall

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Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
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I was at the Nucks games and an interesting question came up between my Nucks friends and I.

He stated that Cup winners usually have a No.1 overall pick on the team and over the past 10 years, only the Kings and Blues didn’t have a No.1 overall pick on their team. Even Cup finalists usually have No.1 overall pick.

Just something I never thought of.
 
There were 3 teams with two wins in the last 10 years, so you're statistically looking at 5 of 7 teams having a first overall pick. Is that relevant? Hard to say, unless you provide the percentage of teams in the league who have a 1st overall pick. The Oilers have had plenty, so we know it isn't a multiplying value.
 
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It's not a surprise. More than any other, a 1st overall is likely to play for a long time. So there's a lot of players who went 1st overall still in the league. 19 according to a quick google.

It might be an interesting stat if it quantified 1st overall picks who win while still with the team that drafted them. But no one is going to claim that you need a player drafted at a certain position to win. It's like scoring more goals on Thursday games, it's just not relevant.

Like, Is Hall the difference maker for Boston if they win it all?
 
Like, Is Hall the difference maker for Boston if they win it all?
Would Hall be a difference maker if he were magically added as the LW the Leafs are reportedly looking for?
 
Interesting.

Kings had Doughty #2 overall

Blues had Pietroangelo #4 overall

Obviously not #1 picks but pretty damn close

I don't think we should read too much into it though. For Colorado Makar was the best player, Mackinnon never really accomplished anything on his own until Makar win. Their cup was largely a result of the #4 pick.

For Tampa, they won the cup basically without Stamkos the first time. He was maybe their 3rd or 4th best player for their 2nd cup behind Kuch/Vasi/Hedman

You just need multiple elite players, and the chances of getting an elite player at #1 is pretty damn high





EDIT:

Colorado: Makar/Mackinnon/Rantanen/Toews/Kadri (played insane last year)
Tampa: Vasi/Hedman/Kuch/Stamkos and then McDonagh/Palat were huge for them
St. Louis: ROR/Pietro/Tarasenko and then Binnington was phenomenal, Schenn/Parayko were very good as well
Washington: Ovechkin/Backstrom/Carlson and then Oshie/Kuzy borderline elite
Pittsburgh: Crosby/Malkin/Kessel/Letang and Fleury/Murray played really good
Chicago: Kane/Toews/Keith/Hossa and then obviously Seabrook/Sharp were very good
LA: Doughty/Quick/Kopitar/Carter and then Richards/Gaborik were very good, borderline elite at the time
Boston: Chara/Bergeron/Thomas/Lucic(at the time)/Horton and Krejci/Marchand were very good players at the time

Looking at just the #1 pick is kind of misleading, when I look at the cup winners and even the runner ups of the past 10ish years the trend I see is

3 or 4 elite players + 2 or 3 very good players, borderline elite that can be real impact players. So in total you need about 7 elite/very good players it would seem.


Toronto:

Elite: Matthews/Marner/Tavares/Nylander

Very good: No one. I really like Samsonov so far, Brodie, Rielly is decent overall as well and Lily looks good, but I would not put a single one of those guys in the same category as the cup winning: Devon Toews, Kadri, McDonagh, Palat, Schenn, Parayko, Oshie, Kuznetsov, Murray or Fleury, Seabrook, Sharp, Mike Richards, Gaborik, Lucic, Nathan Horton, Marchand

I think we are missing 2 or 3 very good secondary players to help carry the load. Assuming Samsonov doesn't fall off a cliff, we'd need 2 very good impact players. Pretty much what most of us have been saying for the past 2 years, a legitimate top 6LW and a top4D.
 
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Tanking for superstars particularly generational franchise players have higher odds of repaying those franchises for their sacrifices in the long run.

Its not a fool proof strategy that all #1OA guarantee success as Leafs now by having Mats Sundin for 13 years.

Should the Leafs win however Matthews will be the key that success story.
 
I was at the Nucks games and an interesting question came up between my Nucks friends and I.

He stated that Cup winners usually have a No.1 overall pick on the team and over the past 10 years, only the Kings and Blues didn’t have a No.1 overall pick on their team. Even Cup finalists usually have No.1 overall pick.

Just something I never thought of.
Several years ago someone came out with a similar stat, not 1st overall but very similar. At the time I did some quick research, went back to like 1980 and found every single team in the league had one such player on their roster every single year of every single season except one or two times. So really it told you absolutely nothing. It was kind of like "every team that won the Cup had skates".
 
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