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Speculation: Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXIII

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SA16 said:
It is not the same as a UFA. Nobody would need to offer him 6M as that would be an egregious overprice that would likely be way higher than anyone else is offering. As an RFA it is different because they need to make the compensation high enough to convince MTL not to just match it. Well the reason he would take 4-5M long term is because through three years he has not done much in the NHL and he will not likely make more money than that unless his offense explodes. Signing 4-20 and guaranteeing himself 20M could easily end up better for him than going year by year if he does not improve. And there is a big risk not taking it. Say they offer him 4-5M for 4-5 years in Jan. If he declines and then has a poor second half of the season and ends with 25-30 points there's a real risk he is not given a QO and not offered anywhere near that much by any other team as a UFA.
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And there's always that threat of a career ending/altering injury. Players who have not established themselves (like Kotkaniemi), probably look at that contract more for it's total value rather than the AAV.
 
SA16 said:
It is not the same as a UFA. Nobody would need to offer him 6M as that would be an egregious overprice that would likely be way higher than anyone else is offering. As an RFA it is different because they need to make the compensation high enough to convince MTL not to just match it. Well the reason he would take 4-5M long term is because through three years he has not done much in the NHL and he will not likely make more money than that unless his offense explodes. Signing 4-20 and guaranteeing himself 20M could easily end up better for him than going year by year if he does not improve. And there is a big risk not taking it. Say they offer him 4-5M for 4-5 years in Jan. If he declines and then has a poor second half of the season and ends with 25-30 points there's a real risk he is not given a QO and not offered anywhere near that much by any other team as a UFA.
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Nope, and I think I get the logical mistake, you guys assume that it’s an absurd overpayment.

But what do you have to compare with? How much would Krebs or Zegras or any of the other young centers get if they for some reason — say a missed deadline — became UFA today? I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Zegras would get like 8m per. You can take a risk on the player a few years, it only cost you cap space, you could get a great player. Is it overpayment? Market value is what the team willing to pay the most for Zegras would offer. Would one team with a bare farm offer 8m per on a 1 year deal to get his rights? Wouldn’t surprise me. Does that make Kotkaniemi worth 6m? Well obviously Carolina is willing to pay 6m, a 1st and a 3rd to get his rights.

Also, think about this statement:
“As an RFA it is different because they need to make the compensation high enough to convince MTL not to just match it.”

So if Kotkaniemi was a UFA — and Montreal would get nothing if they didn’t match the offer — you mean that Carolina could get him by paying less?? You just must agree with me, there is no logic there. The opposite must be true, right?? :)
 
jay from jersey said:
I’m with you, I don’t think Hertl is a good idea either. This is most likely they year to find out if chytil can handle the brunt of 2C duties. If not, I think both him and strome are gone by the start of next season.
Between strome and chytil cap hits, plus what we have available you should be able to see
Zibby ( 9-10 range)
Upgrade (6-7 range)
Barron (ELC)
Rooney/UFA (1.5-2.5 range. Unless Richards takes it on an ELC)
That’s the most realistic possible top 4 C if chytil fails miserably this season
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So according to your post if Chytl can't handle 2C duties he is gone by next year? So he has no value besides a 2C? Not a big fan of his and not high on him like some here are but assuming he does fail he probably would have little value to someone else. The other possibility is he could fair better at a wing position.
 
Gardner McKay said:
Alright. I don't see it. Not at all. What am I missing?
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Gardner McKay said:
Alright. I don't see it. Not at all. What am I missing?
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Zibanejad is a minus defensively. Last year he was a massive minus.

I get what MH is saying, but I don't think there is much of an argument to be made. I know the Sharks sucked, but Zibanejad still almost had as many points in the last 29 games of the season (41) as Hertl had all of last season (43 in 50.) IF the covid pause hadn't happened the year before, he was going to push 50 goals, and this was with missing games.

I know its kind of become the "in" thing to crap all over Zibanejad, but offensively, he's a f***ing pimp. It's going to make for a ton of really irritating conversation the next year when discussing whether or not to extend him while hes en route to a 50+ goal season.

I will say this though, the gap between Zibanejad and Hertl is smaller than the gap between Hertl and Strome. Hertl is a much, much better player than Strome and the fact that some are acting like they're on equal footing on here is the most obvious instance of stat sheet scouting.
 
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Gardner McKay said:
Alright. I don't see it. Not at all. What am I missing?
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This has nothing do with Hertl specifically, but just something to chew on: based on scoring rates from this past year, I calculated that with Chytil's exact usage over a full season (same TOI, same PP time, 56 games), McDavid would have had 36 points. You read that correctly. Thirty-six. He had 105.

The biggest predictor of success in the NHL is how much you play. Even more than talent. The biggest predictor of production is playing on the powerplay.

Because San Jose runs a two-defenseman setup (one of the few still existing in the NHL) Hertl doesn't get top unit powerplay time, and still managed 72 points per 82 games over the last three years.

Add to that he's elite along the boards and plays Selke-level defense. He's a more physical, more skilled Danault.

Hertl is sort of in the worst spot you can be. The Sharks are f***ing terrible but still have enough big contracts that he's not eating minutes through a spoon. I would probably take him over Eichel.
 
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Uninstaaled said:
Zibanejad is a minus defensively. Last year he was a massive minus.

I get what MH is saying, but I don't think there is much of an argument to be made. I know the Sharks sucked, but Zibanejad still almost had as many points in the last 29 games of the season (41) as Hertl had all of last season (43 in 50.) IF the covid pause hadn't happened the year before, he was going to push 50 goals, and this was with missing games.

I know its kind of become the "in" thing to crap all over Zibanejad, but offensively, he's a f***ing pimp. It's going to make for a ton of really irritating conversation the next year when discussing whether or not to extend him while hes en route to a 50+ goal season.

I will say this though, the gap between Zibanejad and Hertl is smaller than the gap between Hertl and Strome. Hertl is a much, much better player than Strome and the fact that some are acting like they're on equal footing on here is the most obvious instance of stat sheet scouting.
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Zibanejad is a big part of it also. Hertl is the perfect teammate for him.

If we had Zibanejad playing powerplay and putting up 69 goals, 115 points or whatever the f***, and then Hertl putting up 60 at even strength and winning the Selke, tell me how we're not winning the Cup. I would give up the first in a strong draft for that. 2003 was a strong draft!
 
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Side note, but I’m hoping against hope that Zibby and Strome see less PK time this year. Distribute the minutes and get Kakko and Chytil some experience in that role.
 
Speaking of ice time metrics, if you want an option that doesn't cost a draft pick, just f***ing play Chytil!

Take the whole ass Kid Line, and play them in the top six instead of the fourth line. You just acquired three top six forwards in one offseason.
 
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Savant said:
Kotkaniemi will also extend at less than 6.1 if Habs don’t match
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Exactly this. The Canes are playing the system. They put a big number of the first year to make it hard for the Habs to match. Sounds like they already have an extension pre-agreed for a lower figure.
 
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Uninstaaled said:
Hertl would be ideal if he didn't look like he was on his way to going full Bure in his 30s.
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another finesse forward is the last thing this team needs. get me the next Jason Arnott Bill Guerin types. really wanted Landeskog and or that type of gritty talent.
 
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