Line Combos: Solutions Needed

[zeke]

It's not really a small sample for the 4 lines at this point... and therefore no escaping that this 3rd line has been terrible, and the 2nd line mediocre.

When you see the numbers for a 3rd line with Engvall on it there, in a decent sample too, the solution kind of looks obvious.

But it seems Keefe is very hesitant to demote either of Kase or Kerfoot to the 4th line. But really for me those two should be battling for the 2nd line slot with the other to the 4th line.

Of course the other solution is to add another legit top 6 forward which could make milky-kampf-engvall more of the defensive 4th line with newguy/kerfoot/kase/Spezza either getting the spot on that 2nd line or making up the 3rd scoring line.

Or maybe there's a better solution I'm not thinking of?

Top pair has been ok...but slipping lately. A shakeup there is not out of the question.

Funny how similar the muzz-holl and muzz-brodie pairings are - both very good underlying and awful regular numbers. Muzz-Lilly worse by impact but better by goals.

Bottom pair has been great no matter what.

The actual solution here might be for Keefe to just stop using a top matchup pairing so much, and stop sheltering the bottom pair so much, and use our great depth on D to our advantage.

Of course we could go out and get a bigtime dman....but then we might be kinda of wasting that defensive depth.

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[Golden_Jet]

It would be interesting to see offensive zone starts as another column, seems like there would be a correlation, that third line usually gets tough matchups at home (at least).

Home and away columns , might also show the effect of line matchups.
But it does make sense the more offensive starts the higher xGF or GF.

 

[Discoverer]

It would be interesting to see offensive zone starts as another column, seems like there would be a correlation, that third line usually gets tough matchups at home (at least).

Home and away columns , might also show the effect of line matchups.
But it does make sense the more offensive starts the higher xGF or GF.

Yeah, Kampf and Kase have some of the most extreme defensive usage in the league. I don't know how that translates to what we should expect their xGF% and GF% to be, though.

 

[TheDoldrums]

with no additions

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kase-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall
Spezza-Kerfoot-Simmonds

 

[SeaOfBlue]

A lot of that 3rd line comes from usage. Only 26% OZS.

It is also only one ES goal away from a GF% of 50.

In general though, IDK how many people really look "good" in that stat when they have to take 3x as many defensive zone faceoffs vs. offensive zone faceoffs. That line with Pierre Engvall on it was absolutely amazing though.

 

[zeke]

It would be interesting to see offensive zone starts as another column, seems like there would be a correlation, that third line usually gets tough matchups at home (at least).

Home and away columns , might also show the effect of line matchups.
But it does make sense the more offensive starts the higher xGF or GF.

3rd line gets the heaviest use by far. Some of the heaviest in the league.

Even then, 35-40% is awful...and the line got just as tough usage when Engvall was on it.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

with no additions

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kase-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall
Spezza-Kerfoot-Simmonds

I think I would swap Mikheyev and Kase personally.

I don't really think Kerfoot is the problem on that 2nd line. Tavares and Nylander just don't have it right now. But if you are going to switch things up, I think rotating the LW (Mikheyev to 2LW, Kerfoot to 4LW, Engvall to 3LW) is the way to go about it.

No idea if that 4th line will go completely useless with Kerfoot on it, but he is good enough that it should work.

We could also just change up usage, which is what I would do on defense. Cut down on some of the Muzzin-Holl minutes by a little bit and give more to Lyubushkin, Sandin, Liljegren, and Dermott. Give the 3rd line some more offensive time, and maybe give more defensive responsibilities to the 4th line (which is tough as it is because Spezza and Simmonds are not good defensive players).

 

[Buds17]

The Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase line still logs the fewest minutes out of the four (to say it's close with the Engvall-Spezza-Simmonds line would be fair). Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall obviously also represents the forward line with the smallest sample size of all. The blueline is tougher to gauge because of the oh so recent acquisition of Lyubushkin. Have to believe that he'll factor in regularly just because of the trade and how new he is to the organization. Dermott also figures to be a fixture on his strong side now until Muzzin returns. I suppose Dermott could sit at times if Brodie moves to his strong side but that would appear to be to the detriment of the right side (none of the others are top pairing material IMO).

 

[ShaneFalco]

We definitely need a bit of a shake -up and Mik and Kerfoot are pieces is be looking to move for a different look

 

[Zybalto]

Only limited minutes for these line so far but:

Mikheyev-Tavares-Nylander: Under 20 minutes sample but 66.56 xGF% is promising.

Kerfoot-Kampf-Kase:
OZone Faceoff% 9.52
xGF%: 47.26
GF%: 57.21


Mikheyev is a decent defender but his speed would be better utilized on the second line giving them a much needed energy boost.
Kerfoot back on the third line to reunite the best I've thought the shutdown line has looked all season.

Voila.

 

[Zybalto]

We definitely need a bit of a shake -up and Mik and Kerfoot are pieces is be looking to move for a different look

Just switch them and watch the magic happen.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I don't really think Kerfoot is the problem on that 2nd line. Tavares and Nylander just don't have it right now.

I agree. They've been a big problem, especially defensively. The issue is that Keefe clearly wants the 3rd line to be a pure shutdown defensive role, you can't put Tavares or Nylander on the 4th line and they shouldn't break up the top line with how incredible they've been. So trying new wingers with them seems like the only plausible option even if I don't think their struggles are Kerfoots fault.

I like Kase there just because I think he's the most skilled and best finisher of the options.

 

[TMLAM34]

Go out and acquire McLeod from New Jersey. Kid has wheels that can compliment Kerfoot’s game IMO and is strong in the circle. Kerfoot - McLeod - Kase as the third line. Move Kampf down to the 4th line with Engvall.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Get a f***ing save

 

[Kurtz]

As has been mentioned, you can't really rely on those stats without also considering zone starts and quality of competition. That shutdown pairing with Engval looks compelling, but the sample size is low at only 60 minutes. Probably the most compelling numbers there are the poor xgf numbers of the JT line, given their heavy offensive deployment.

 

[WTFMAN99]

As has been mentioned, you can't really rely on those stats without also considering zone starts and quality of competition. That shutdown pairing with Engval looks compelling, but the sample size is low at only 60 minutes. Probably the most compelling numbers there are the poor xgf numbers of the JT line, given their heavy offensive deployment.

Poor teams MTL and CBJ and heavy zone starts and that 2nd line trio did nothing, really concerning.

 

[zeke]

OK so Keefe saw the issues, and has shaken up the 2nd and 3rd lines:




This has the potential to be significant - this is Kase's first shot on one of the top lines as anything other than an injury fill in (for Marner). He did pretty well as a fill in, but this is his chance to establish himself for real on that Tavares line. Hopefully this works out just so it unlocks more options for Keefe.

I don't think Kerfoot will help the kampf line as much as Engvall, but maybe he does....and it has to be an upgrade on that 3rd line's current level of play anyways.

 

[meefer]

If Keefe is insisting on a shutdown line, I don't know how he can ignore the numbers that: Mikheyev, Kamph, Engvall are producing. They are impressive.

As to the rest, I'd consider dropping Kerfoot to 4C and shift Spezza to RW (face-offs excluded). Kase to LW with Tavares and Nylander.

Bunting Matthews Marner
Kase Tavares Nylander
Mikheyev Kampf Engvall
Robertson Kerfoot/Spezza Spezza/Simmonds

Keep Rielly and Brodie together,
Muzz/Lilly*
Sandin/Dermott*
*for the sake of consistency.

Disclaimer: I'd be force feeding Liljegren as many minutes as possible, because I think he's the sleeper, the kid who can do more.

 

[zeke]

EXCELLENT.


finally, finally keefe takes the plunge, keeps the mikky-kampf-engvall line together, and sticks Kerfoot with Spezza. you could call that a 4th line but it should be higher scoring than the 3rd line.

And man, if Robertson can stick on the Tavares line then you have the possibility of a Kerfoot-Spezza-Kase line which would be fanastic depth. Though i'm guessing Kase will replace Robertson on that Tavares line when he's healthy....unless Robertson explodes.

 

[LeafalCrusader]

EXCELLENT.


finally, finally keefe takes the plunge, keeps the mikky-kampf-engvall line together, and sticks Kerfoot with Spezza. you could call that a 4th line but it should be higher scoring than the 3rd line.

And man, if Robertson can stick on the Tavares line then you have the possibility of a Kerfoot-Spezza-Kase line which would be fanastic depth. Though i'm guessing Kase will replace Robertson on that Tavares line when he's healthy....unless Robertson explodes.

But we can't take out the Wayne Train. His presence keeps other teams from running our star players.

 

[stickty111]

But we can't take out the Wayne Train. His presence keeps other teams from running our star players.

Keeps the flies off is one of the more false narratives in hockey. Pionk with a dirty play on Sandin, and Simmonds and Clifford were in the game. Aren't they supposed to prevent that from happening?

 

[ACC1224]

But we can't take out the Wayne Train. His presence keeps other teams from running our star players.

Any thoughts on why they run him out there every night? Why he was re-signed?

 

[glue]

Leafs are not a 'tough' team. They are a highly skilled and talented team, they clearly don't have the 'tough team' mentality. But I'm honestly fine with that, I just want them to accept that and then play the way their built and to that identity. This means guys like Simmonds should be a 13th forward at best. Right now with Robertson trying out on the 2nd line, Simmonds should sit and Kase should take his spot. Kerfoot-Spezza-Kase could be a very very good 4th line.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The solution is Campbell and Marazek pull their heads from their ass and make a save, that's it, it's that simple

 

[Ziggdiezan]

View attachment 510003

It's not really a small sample for the 4 lines at this point... and therefore no escaping that this 3rd line has been terrible, and the 2nd line mediocre.

When you see the numbers for a 3rd line with Engvall on it there, in a decent sample too, the solution kind of looks obvious.

But it seems Keefe is very hesitant to demote either of Kase or Kerfoot to the 4th line. But really for me those two should be battling for the 2nd line slot with the other to the 4th line.

Of course the other solution is to add another legit top 6 forward which could make milky-kampf-engvall more of the defensive 4th line with newguy/kerfoot/kase/Spezza either getting the spot on that 2nd line or making up the 3rd scoring line.

Or maybe there's a better solution I'm not thinking of?


View attachment 510004

Top pair has been ok...but slipping lately. A shakeup there is not out of the question.

Funny how similar the muzz-holl and muzz-brodie pairings are - both very good underlying and awful regular numbers. Muzz-Lilly worse by impact but better by goals.

Bottom pair has been great no matter what.

The actual solution here might be for Keefe to just stop using a top matchup pairing so much, and stop sheltering the bottom pair so much, and use our great depth on D to our advantage.

Of course we could go out and get a bigtime dman....but then we might be kinda of wasting that defensive depth.

I seem to recall the 3rd line having pretty good numbers earlier in the year so its interesting to see how far they have dropped. How do you think their likely very high defensive usage effects those numbers?

Leafs have been running a really sheltered 3rd pairing for like the past decade it seems so I dont expect that to switch soon to be honest