Slow day so played with some numbers. Just for conversations sake.

[Taranis_24]

Guys/Gals - Just really bored so messed around with the numbers. I know the projected growth %'s used are probably off and maybe there will be no growth next 2 years or so because of the damage done but was trying to take an opportunistic look at stuff. I also figured if revenues really drop the projected growth % a little higher because just seems to me that the growth will be easier obtained if starting at a way low level. Not an accountant just trying to figure how the players can gain from this lockout. Just seems to me that it could take at least 4-6 years to get back to today's average salary and that's if revenues grow by at least 5% each year. Don't know if that pessimistic or optimistic. Just goofing off and not much to do today so thought I would throw out for conversation's sake.


Rev’s in (B)--54%---56%---58%---60%---62%
2.1---------1.134--1.176--1.218--1.260--1.302
1.8---------.972---1.008--1.044--1.080--1.116
1.5---------.810---.840----.870----.900----.930
1.2---------.648---.672----.696----.720----.744

30 Team salary (Millions)
Revenue- ---54%----56%----58%----60%----62%
2.1-----------37.8---39.2----40.6----42.0----43.4
1.8-----------32.4---33.6----34.8----36.0----37.2
1.5-----------27.0---28.0----29.0----30.0----31.0
1.2-----------21.6---22.4----23.2----24.0----24.8

30 team / 23 man roster per player salary (Millions)
Revenue----54%----56%----58%----60%----62%
2.1---------1.643---1.704---1.765---1.826--1.887
1.8---------1.409---1.461---1.513---1.565--1.617
1.5---------1.174---1.217---1.261---1.304--1.348
1.2----------.939----.973---1.009---1.043--1.078

Growth/1 year (Billions)------------------------------Growth %
Revenue-----54%----56%----58%----60%----62%
2.205-------1.191---1.235---1.279---1.323---1.367-----5%
1.980-------1.069---1.109---1.148---1.188---1.228----10%
1.725--------.932-----.966---1.001---1.035---1.070----15%
1.440-------.778-----.806----.835-----.864----.893----20%

30 Team salary (Millions)
Revenue-----54%----56%----58%----60%----62%
2.205--------39.7----41.2----42.6----44.1----45.6
1.980--------35.6----37.0----38.3----39.6----40.9
1.725--------31.1----32.2----33.4----34.5----35.7
1.440--------25.9----26.9----27.8----28.8----29.8

30 team / 23 man roster per player salary (Millions)
Revenue----54%----56%----58%----60%----62%
2.205------1.726---1.790---1.853---1.917---1.981
1.980------1.550---1.607---1.664---1.722---1.779
1.725------1.350---1.400---1.450---1.500---1.550
1.440------1.127---1.169---1.210---1.252---1.294

Growth/Year 6 (Billions)----------------------AVG % growth
Revenue---54%----56%----58%----60%----62%
2.680-----1.447---1.501---1.554---1.608---1.662----5%
2.600-----1.404---1.456---1.508---1.560---1.612----7%
2.435-----1.315---1.364---1.412---1.461---1.510----9%
2.186-----1.180---1.224---1.268---1.312---1.355---11%

30 Team salary (Millions
Revenue--54%--56%---58%---60%---62%
2.680-----48.2---50.0---51.8---53.6---55.4
2.600-----46.8---48.5---50.3---52.0---53.7
2.435-----43.8---45.5---47.1---48.7---50.3
2.186-----39.3---40.8---42.3---43.7---45.2

30 team / 23 man roster per player salary (Millions)
Revenue--54%----56%----58%----60%----62%
2.680----2.097---2.175---2.253---2.330---2.408
2.600----2.035---2.110---2.186---2.261---2.336
2.435----1.906---1.976---2.047---2.117---2.188
2.186----1.711---1.774---1.838---1.901---1.964

 

[AXN]

If you make the cap 45 million max and 25 million min then the average 2003-2004 come out to 38.1 million. That is less than 54 percent of 2.1 billion revenues.

Ex.
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$45,000,000
$42,074,500
$40,865,500
$39,590,000
$39,249,750
$38,857,000
$36,402,575
$35,908,738
$34,455,000
$34,065,379
$34,000,000
$33,375,000
$32,954,250
$30,867,502
$28,547,500
$27,200,500
$26,127,500
$25,000,000
$25,000,000
------------
$38,151,356 = Average

the only way your numbers are true is if every cap will fill up. That will never happen. It has not happen in any sport yet and if it does then you revenue should go up. If it doesn't then it is your fault that the lockout happened. You got nobody to blame but yourselves. The average salary could be even less in 2004-2005.

 

[AXN]

30 Team salary (Millions
Revenue--54%--56%---58%---60%---62%
2.680-----48.2---50.0---51.8---53.6---55.4
2.600-----46.8---48.5---50.3---52.0---53.7
2.435-----43.8---45.5---47.1---48.7---50.3
2.186-----39.3---40.8---42.3---43.7---45.2

If they can agree lets say at 60% and the owners can gaurantee 5% increase in revenue each year then maybe they can raise the salary cap each year.
1st yr - 43.7
2nd yr - 48.7
3rd yr - 52.0
4th yr - 53.6