SJ HFBoards 2024-25 Prospect Pyramid- Tier I

[The Nemesis]

NOTE: MAKE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THE VOTING PROCESS BEFORE YOU VOTE! ESPECIALLY READ THE BIT AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST THAT IS HIGHLIGHTED!

(A lot of this blather will disappear from subsequent polls to make things easier to read)

As @Lebanezer has hinted at in the last couple of prospect ranking threads, we have a follow-up project to play out before the season gets started as a companion piece to that ordinal list: a prospect pyramid.

If you already know what one of those is, great! You can skip this next bit in the spoiler tags. But if not here's the gist of it:

Spoiler: What is a Prospect Pyramid?

I don't know if the concept was actually created by him, but its hockey use was popularized by Leafs blogger/weirdo Steve Dangle as an alternative ranking system to straight-up 1-to-whatever ranked lists.

Instead of voting for each player to fill a specific slot on a list, instead prospects are sorted into tiers that function like broad buckets of a general shared level of potential and skill (what each tier represents will be made clear as we go along and as you vote). The actual order of said prospects within a tier is irrelevant, just that they are all on a similar enough level to be comparable in a slightly less focused way. It also makes for a somewhat easier time in assigning places to prospects as you don't have to get into granular discussion like "is X better than Y and also Z? But not better than A, B, or C?" because the question for each prospect is simply "do you think they are this good? Yes or no." and if you say "yes" they go into the tier. If you say "no" they wait for potentially the next one or the one after that or whatever.

The "pyramid" part comes from the fact that most systems will have progressively more prospects in each tier as we journey from the top down to the lowest levels, as most prospect pools will have a relative few elite and high-end players and more guys who were often late picks or Undrafted FAs or whatever that have a lower ceiling and projected outcome. So we end up with a potential triangular/pyramidal shape.

What the tiers are and how they are organized is not set in stone. I have seen everything from 5 to 8 tiers used with varying cutoff points between tiers. So the choices made for these polls are specific to us and do not represent any sort of standard

Because this is a broad net being cast, these polls are a little different:

****THIS IS THE IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT VOTING. READ THIS BEFORE YOU VOTE EVEN IF YOU SKIP EVERYTHING ELSE****

These are multiple-choice polls. You can and should vote for every prospect you believe merits inclusion in the tier. You are not restricted to voting for just one prospect. Or two. Or ten. Or anything other than the maximum number of voting options the poll provides. If you believe that nobody merits inclusion in a teir, there is a "nobody" option. Its final vote total will not impact the results, but it will be a way to register the intent not to support anyone in the final tallies for other prospects (what I mean is that if "nobody" were to get 66% it wouldn't mean anything on its own. But every vote for "nobody" pulls down the percentages of everyone else, so a vote for the "nobody" option will make your opinion count against the vote totals of every other prospect so that the lack of support is properly attributed.

At the end of the 4-day voting period, any prospect that earns at least 66% support will be counted in the tier. Anything below that will not and will move on to the next tier. Vacated spots for elected prospects will be filled as we go. The initial list is seeded based on the final results of Lebanezer's top 20 polls and are sorted in that order. Subsequent inclusions will first go to players who received votes but did not win polls, then finally to players who didn't receive any votes. There will be a certain amount of discretion on the part of Leb and myself when it comes to selecting additions.

For those wondering, multi-choice polls record percentages as (# of votes received/# of recorded voters. * 100). So your vote's weight is not thinned out by voting for more options. If you are the first person to vote and you vote for 6 prospects, all 6 of them will show 100% support. If the second person comes in and votes for 2 prospects that already had a vote and 1 that doesn't, then the pair that now have 2 votes will still show 100%, the 4 from before that still have 1 vote will be at 50%, and the 1 new player voted for will also be at 50% (1 vote each from 2 voters)

For this we have decided to work with a 6-tiered pyramid. I will explain each tier in more depth and with a bit more positional specificity as we get to its respective poll, but for now here is a brief look at each of the tiers:

Spoiler: The pyramid tiers (in brief)

1) Franchise Cornerstones - The best of the best of the best prospects. These are the guys who you can build a team around and who can change the course of your franchise. Their peak is to be among the best players in the league regardless of position and to be the sort who could regularly be named to all-star rosters and contend for major awards.

2) Elite Talent - Not quite the best of the best, these players are ones who aren't franchise-changers like Tier 1 but would still be among the most important pieces of a good team, or they may be the best players on a less talented team. They're the type who might make all-star teams intermittently or contend for a major award in a career year, but would otherwise be just below that level.

3) Core Role Players & Lottery Tickets - Middle-of-the-roster support types who are important to the depth of a strong team. Good enough to be solid, dependable, and necessary for a competitive team. But not talented enough that they can carry the load at their position. This is also the tier for guys who have high potential but significant risk as a boom/bust prospect.

4) Depth & Specialists - Players whose potential is to be sorted nearer to the bottom of the roster, but still in prominent and reliable regular roles. Or guys with outstanding talent in particular areas that's enough to earn NHL ice time, but which requires them to be protected and sheltered somewhat and thus creates a ceiling on their impact (PP/PK specialists, defence-first guys who can't be deployed offensively, scorers who can't be counted on in their own zone, etc)

5) Fringe Players & Org Filler - Players whose potential is low enough that they might only exist on the fringes of the roster, as press-box or shuttle guys useful for only a few games at a time in particular situations, or as AHL depth with the potential for a cup of coffee in the NHL but more counted on to fill out the farm team.

6) Non-Prospects - Players with likely no apparent NHL or significant AHL future. A broad range of players who you simply expect will never get into an NHL game at all, encompassing anything from low-end/depth AHL guys, to ECHL ones, to even lower minor pro or semi-pro leagues, to players who who would either leave North America to play in European Elite Leagues or never choose to leave Europe in the first place. Players who seem likely to not ever receive a contract from the Sharks also go here.

Finally here is a look at a bit more positionally granular idea of what Tier I represents in terms of a prospect's projected potential ceiling. This table will be added to as we progress through the tiers.

Tier	Forwards	Defensemen	Goaltenders
Tier I - Franchise Cornerstones (*THIS POLL*)	Surefire first line players. Perennial all-stars and frequent major award contenders	Absolute Elite #1 D-man. Regular Norris contender and all-star	Top-Shelf Vezina-caliber starter and workhorse starting goaltender. Is capable of regularly stealing games.

This poll will close in 4 DAYS as will all subsequent ones.

Because I can imagine this is a bit confusing I will answer any questions or offer clarifications if you require.

Click to read more...

 

[The Nemesis]

I forgot in the initial post (and the poll at first) that we had decided for this exercise to include all roster players who are under 25 regardless of games played as a way to better judge the overall shape of the young talent on the team and in the system.

So stuffed in at the bottom of the poll are Eklund, Thrun, Bordeleau, and Dellandrea as they met those criteria. Vote for them as you'd like and I'll slot them into the poll choices in a less clumsy way later on. Zetterlund missed inclusion by like a week or so, and Kostin and Ferraro are also 25 and missed the cutoff.

If you somehow managed to vote before I got this up you can change your vote as you wish to include any of those guys.

 

[Cas]

Voted Celebrini and Askarov.

Celebrini is a no-brainer who will likely win 100% of the votes here.

Askarov does have the potential to be a perennial Vezina contender, though the odds that he does that are certainly not high. However, if he hits, we have our Vasilevsky/Hellebuyck franchise cornerstone.

I don't think anyone else has that kind of upside. Smith, Dickinson, and Eklund probably slide into Tier 2.

 

[Barrie22]

Celebrini and Smith

 

[OrrNumber4]

If you believe the experts, the scouts, and the analysts, then Celebrini is an obvious choice.

If you pick Smilth, you'd be bucking the conventional belief of his ceiling.

I'm also tempted to put Askarov in that tier, but again, he falls short of Celebrini in just about every way. He's not as safe, doesn't quite have as much potential (especially considering he's a goaltender), and has a lower chance to reach it.

 

[Barrie22]

If you believe the experts, the scouts, and the analysts, then Celebrini is an obvious choice.

If you pick Smilth, you'd be bucking the conventional belief of his ceiling.

I'm also tempted to put Askarov in that tier, but again, he falls short of Celebrini in just about every way. He's not as safe, doesn't quite have as much potential (especially considering he's a goaltender), and has a lower chance to reach it.

One of the comparisons i seen leading up to the draft was Kane vs Toews for Smith vs Celebini

 

[CHALUPA]

I would include Askarov here since the top of his potential fits the description, but he’s enough of a lottery ticket to leave out.

 

[OrrNumber4]

One of the comparisons i seen leading up to the draft was Kane vs Toews for Smith vs Celebini

I don't think Smith has quite the talent or puck-skills of Kane.

I would include Askarov here since the top of his potential fits the description, but he’s enough of a lottery ticket to leave out.

Yes, he has a lot of tier I and tier III factors; I will say that he averages out to tier II!

 

[DG93]

Celebrini only for the first tier imo

 

[The Nemesis]

I should've been a little clearer at the start that risk matters. Obviously I put lottery ticket boom/bust guys at tier 3 (or Tier III since I did intend to use roman numerals for it because it looks fancy) but part of the deal, especially at the top of the pyramid, is that how likely it is someone reaches their ceiling matters. It's less of an issue at the bottom because it's rare to really see a guy who's like "well if everything goes right he might be a 4th liner or bottom-pairing D, but that's a low percentage outcome" and not just view him as a non-prospect to begin with. But at the top it is more part of the equation.

Tier I is supposed to be the absolute best of the best of the best. Like, to use an over-used phrase, the "generational" guys. Most versions of prospect pyramids that I've seen acknowledge that it should not be weird for a team to not have anyone in the highest tier, because there's usually only 1 or 2 of those guys in the league-wide prospect pool in a given year. It's the Crosby/Ovechkin/McDavid/MacKinnon/Makar tier of "this is a singular guy who you can build your whole team around no matter what else you have." players. The difference between Tier I and Tier II is like the difference the career of Erik Karlsson (3x Norris winner, 2x 2nd place, 4x 1st team all-star, 3 top 10 Hart finishes) and Brent Burns (1x Norris winner, 1x 2nd place finish, 1x 3rd place finish, 2x 1st team all-star, 1x 2nd team all-star, 1x top 10 Hart finish) One is "at his best he might be the best in the league at his position" and that peak happens a small number of times, and the other is "At his best he might be one of the best in the league regardless of position" and that happens with a bit more regularity.

That's why I voted Celebrini and only Celebrini for this tier. I like Smith but I think he's a Tier II guy, a strong top-of-the-lineup player, but not a franchise-carrier. And Askarov too, he has perennial Vezina upside as his like 99th percentile outcome, but there's enough risk there that I think he's more projectable right now as a very good starter who can occasionally steal a game for you rather than a guy who has that in him every single night.

I didn't want to be too specific when I started for fear of poisoning the poll with my viewpoint, but that was the thought process that went into molding the tiers.

 

[OrrNumber4]

@tahoesharksfan @Medinab31 @StanleyCup2035 explain, please!

 

[StanleyCup2035]

@tahoesharksfan @Medinab31 @StanleyCup2035 explain, please!

I voted before reading the definition of Tier 1. Had I read it, I would have voted Celebrini, and would have to think very hard before including Smith and Askarov. I changed my vote to just Celebrini, I hope Smith and Askarov provide me wrong.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Wow, do some people really think we have five franchise players? Ten Cups guaranteed.

This is a Celebrini-only tier.

 

[Lebanezer]

Wow, do some people really think we have five franchise players? Ten Cups guaranteed.

This is a Celebrini-only tier.

Everyone is easing their way into the criteria for this.

 

[hohosaregood]

I'd say Celebrini is the only Franchise tier. Smith and maybe Askarov are in the elite tier. Then Eklund, Dickinson, Musty, maybe Shakir in the core tier. Then a buttload in the depth tier.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Everyone is easing their way into the criteria for this.

Or maybe we're the next iteration of the 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning.

In all seriousness, I could at least see an argument for Askarov here since I do truly believe he's got Vezina contender upside, but I didn't vote for him because he's so risky.

 

[OrrNumber4]

@tahoesharksfan @Medinab31 explain, please!

@Sandisfan I assume that you can't resist upvoting, but it isn't that kind of poll

@sampler as well

I can maybe, maybe see a case for Askarov or Smith, but for anyone else, I'd be interested in hearing the argument.

 

[The Nemesis]

Maybe I should've also said that Tier I is the "this person should be in the hall of fame if their career goes to plan" tier.

Like if you think Askarov is Tier I then you're expecting him to have a Hasek, Roy, Brodeur level career. It's rarified air.

I said "Vezina-Caliber" but it's not so much "they can win a Vezina." as it is "they're in the conversation to win one almost every year."

Wow, do some people really think we have five franchise players? Ten Cups guaranteed.

This is a Celebrini-only tier.

Based on voting:

Celebrini = Crosby
Smith = Datsyuk
Dickinson = Orr
Askarov = Hasek
Mukhamadullin = Orr, but tall and Russian.
Musty = Bossy
Eklund = Both of the Sedins put together.

We might never lose again!

 

[Sharksfan83]

Celebrini Tier 1 for me.

Spoiler, Tier 2 for me will be Smith, Dickinson, Askarov. (And Eklund after the update)

 

[OrrNumber4]

You know @The Nemesis, having a 3a (core)/3b(longshots)and a 4a/4b could be good.

Also, with the tournament coming up it makes sense to wait. That extra data will distinguish this from the other polls.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Celebrini is the only Tier 1 imo.
For now Askarov and Smith are more of a Tier 2 but can make a run for Tier 1 in couple of years if everything goes right and they consistentely play that way

Edit: That is if Smith can be our Malkin to Celebrini as Crosby. With Askarov becoming a Vasilevskiy.

 

[matt trick]

As a dman you’ve got to be a Norris contender but as a center you need to be a first liner and frequent allstar? I think you can make an argument for Smith there- I think he’ll be a top 15 center if things go to plan. A Marner-caliber center is my ideal.

That said the conversation outside the initial post makes it clear to me it’s just Celebrini. Askarov may just get there, but there’s too much risk to say he will be a Vezina-caliber goalie.

Looking more broadly, I’d have Bedard, Fantilli, and Carlsson in this tier. Not sure I’d have another player in there. Maybe Michkov?

Maybe I should've also said that Tier I is the "this person should be in the hall of fame if their career goes to plan" tier.

Like if you think Askarov is Tier I then you're expecting him to have a Hasek, Roy, Brodeur level career. It's rarified air.

I said "Vezina-Caliber" but it's not so much "they can win a Vezina." as it is "they're in the conversation to win one almost every year."


Based on voting:

Celebrini = Crosby
Smith = Datsyuk
Dickinson = Orr
Askarov = Hasek
Mukhamadullin = Orr, but tall and Russian.
Musty = Bossy
Eklund = Both of the Sedins put together.

We might never lose again!

We should draft Victor as well. Then we could have the equivalent of 4 Sedin’s on the ice!

 

[one2gamble]

its not more than just macklin here

 

[fasterthanlight]

Thank you Nem for running this!

My guess is that people are voting for non-Celebrini choices because the first post is somewhat verbose. I read the whole thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if others did not But yeah, this is only Celebrini. You could even potentially argue that Celebrini might not be a "Perennial all-star and frequent major award contender", but he has as good of a shot as any.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Thank you Nem for running this!

My guess is that people are voting for non-Celebrini choices because the first post is somewhat verbose. I read the whole thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if others did not But yeah, this is only Celebrini. You could even potentially argue that Celebrini might not be a "Perennial all-star and frequent major award contender", but he has as good of a shot as any.

Nem? Verbose? Nahhhh