The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
NOTE: MAKE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THE VOTING PROCESS BEFORE YOU VOTE! ESPECIALLY READ THE BIT AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST THAT IS HIGHLIGHTED!
(A lot of this blather will disappear from subsequent polls to make things easier to read)
As @Lebanezer has hinted at in the last couple of prospect ranking threads, we have a follow-up project to play out before the season gets started as a companion piece to that ordinal list: a prospect pyramid.
If you already know what one of those is, great! You can skip this next bit in the spoiler tags. But if not here's the gist of it:
Because this is a broad net being cast, these polls are a little different:
****THIS IS THE IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT VOTING. READ THIS BEFORE YOU VOTE EVEN IF YOU SKIP EVERYTHING ELSE****
These are multiple-choice polls. You can and should vote for every prospect you believe merits inclusion in the tier. You are not restricted to voting for just one prospect. Or two. Or ten. Or anything other than the maximum number of voting options the poll provides. If you believe that nobody merits inclusion in a teir, there is a "nobody" option. Its final vote total will not impact the results, but it will be a way to register the intent not to support anyone in the final tallies for other prospects (what I mean is that if "nobody" were to get 66% it wouldn't mean anything on its own. But every vote for "nobody" pulls down the percentages of everyone else, so a vote for the "nobody" option will make your opinion count against the vote totals of every other prospect so that the lack of support is properly attributed.
At the end of the 4-day voting period, any prospect that earns at least 66% support will be counted in the tier. Anything below that will not and will move on to the next tier. Vacated spots for elected prospects will be filled as we go. The initial list is seeded based on the final results of Lebanezer's top 20 polls and are sorted in that order. Subsequent inclusions will first go to players who received votes but did not win polls, then finally to players who didn't receive any votes. There will be a certain amount of discretion on the part of Leb and myself when it comes to selecting additions.
For those wondering, multi-choice polls record percentages as (# of votes received/# of recorded voters. * 100). So your vote's weight is not thinned out by voting for more options. If you are the first person to vote and you vote for 6 prospects, all 6 of them will show 100% support. If the second person comes in and votes for 2 prospects that already had a vote and 1 that doesn't, then the pair that now have 2 votes will still show 100%, the 4 from before that still have 1 vote will be at 50%, and the 1 new player voted for will also be at 50% (1 vote each from 2 voters)
For this we have decided to work with a 6-tiered pyramid. I will explain each tier in more depth and with a bit more positional specificity as we get to its respective poll, but for now here is a brief look at each of the tiers:
Finally here is a look at a bit more positionally granular idea of what Tier I represents in terms of a prospect's projected potential ceiling. This table will be added to as we progress through the tiers.
This poll will close in 4 DAYS as will all subsequent ones.
Because I can imagine this is a bit confusing I will answer any questions or offer clarifications if you require.
(A lot of this blather will disappear from subsequent polls to make things easier to read)
As @Lebanezer has hinted at in the last couple of prospect ranking threads, we have a follow-up project to play out before the season gets started as a companion piece to that ordinal list: a prospect pyramid.
If you already know what one of those is, great! You can skip this next bit in the spoiler tags. But if not here's the gist of it:
I don't know if the concept was actually created by him, but its hockey use was popularized by Leafs blogger/weirdo Steve Dangle as an alternative ranking system to straight-up 1-to-whatever ranked lists.
Instead of voting for each player to fill a specific slot on a list, instead prospects are sorted into tiers that function like broad buckets of a general shared level of potential and skill (what each tier represents will be made clear as we go along and as you vote). The actual order of said prospects within a tier is irrelevant, just that they are all on a similar enough level to be comparable in a slightly less focused way. It also makes for a somewhat easier time in assigning places to prospects as you don't have to get into granular discussion like "is X better than Y and also Z? But not better than A, B, or C?" because the question for each prospect is simply "do you think they are this good? Yes or no." and if you say "yes" they go into the tier. If you say "no" they wait for potentially the next one or the one after that or whatever.
The "pyramid" part comes from the fact that most systems will have progressively more prospects in each tier as we journey from the top down to the lowest levels, as most prospect pools will have a relative few elite and high-end players and more guys who were often late picks or Undrafted FAs or whatever that have a lower ceiling and projected outcome. So we end up with a potential triangular/pyramidal shape.
What the tiers are and how they are organized is not set in stone. I have seen everything from 5 to 8 tiers used with varying cutoff points between tiers. So the choices made for these polls are specific to us and do not represent any sort of standard
Instead of voting for each player to fill a specific slot on a list, instead prospects are sorted into tiers that function like broad buckets of a general shared level of potential and skill (what each tier represents will be made clear as we go along and as you vote). The actual order of said prospects within a tier is irrelevant, just that they are all on a similar enough level to be comparable in a slightly less focused way. It also makes for a somewhat easier time in assigning places to prospects as you don't have to get into granular discussion like "is X better than Y and also Z? But not better than A, B, or C?" because the question for each prospect is simply "do you think they are this good? Yes or no." and if you say "yes" they go into the tier. If you say "no" they wait for potentially the next one or the one after that or whatever.
The "pyramid" part comes from the fact that most systems will have progressively more prospects in each tier as we journey from the top down to the lowest levels, as most prospect pools will have a relative few elite and high-end players and more guys who were often late picks or Undrafted FAs or whatever that have a lower ceiling and projected outcome. So we end up with a potential triangular/pyramidal shape.
What the tiers are and how they are organized is not set in stone. I have seen everything from 5 to 8 tiers used with varying cutoff points between tiers. So the choices made for these polls are specific to us and do not represent any sort of standard
Because this is a broad net being cast, these polls are a little different:
****THIS IS THE IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT VOTING. READ THIS BEFORE YOU VOTE EVEN IF YOU SKIP EVERYTHING ELSE****
These are multiple-choice polls. You can and should vote for every prospect you believe merits inclusion in the tier. You are not restricted to voting for just one prospect. Or two. Or ten. Or anything other than the maximum number of voting options the poll provides. If you believe that nobody merits inclusion in a teir, there is a "nobody" option. Its final vote total will not impact the results, but it will be a way to register the intent not to support anyone in the final tallies for other prospects (what I mean is that if "nobody" were to get 66% it wouldn't mean anything on its own. But every vote for "nobody" pulls down the percentages of everyone else, so a vote for the "nobody" option will make your opinion count against the vote totals of every other prospect so that the lack of support is properly attributed.
At the end of the 4-day voting period, any prospect that earns at least 66% support will be counted in the tier. Anything below that will not and will move on to the next tier. Vacated spots for elected prospects will be filled as we go. The initial list is seeded based on the final results of Lebanezer's top 20 polls and are sorted in that order. Subsequent inclusions will first go to players who received votes but did not win polls, then finally to players who didn't receive any votes. There will be a certain amount of discretion on the part of Leb and myself when it comes to selecting additions.
For those wondering, multi-choice polls record percentages as (# of votes received/# of recorded voters. * 100). So your vote's weight is not thinned out by voting for more options. If you are the first person to vote and you vote for 6 prospects, all 6 of them will show 100% support. If the second person comes in and votes for 2 prospects that already had a vote and 1 that doesn't, then the pair that now have 2 votes will still show 100%, the 4 from before that still have 1 vote will be at 50%, and the 1 new player voted for will also be at 50% (1 vote each from 2 voters)
For this we have decided to work with a 6-tiered pyramid. I will explain each tier in more depth and with a bit more positional specificity as we get to its respective poll, but for now here is a brief look at each of the tiers:
1) Franchise Cornerstones - The best of the best of the best prospects. These are the guys who you can build a team around and who can change the course of your franchise. Their peak is to be among the best players in the league regardless of position and to be the sort who could regularly be named to all-star rosters and contend for major awards.
2) Elite Talent - Not quite the best of the best, these players are ones who aren't franchise-changers like Tier 1 but would still be among the most important pieces of a good team, or they may be the best players on a less talented team. They're the type who might make all-star teams intermittently or contend for a major award in a career year, but would otherwise be just below that level.
3) Core Role Players & Lottery Tickets - Middle-of-the-roster support types who are important to the depth of a strong team. Good enough to be solid, dependable, and necessary for a competitive team. But not talented enough that they can carry the load at their position. This is also the tier for guys who have high potential but significant risk as a boom/bust prospect.
4) Depth & Specialists - Players whose potential is to be sorted nearer to the bottom of the roster, but still in prominent and reliable regular roles. Or guys with outstanding talent in particular areas that's enough to earn NHL ice time, but which requires them to be protected and sheltered somewhat and thus creates a ceiling on their impact (PP/PK specialists, defence-first guys who can't be deployed offensively, scorers who can't be counted on in their own zone, etc)
5) Fringe Players & Org Filler - Players whose potential is low enough that they might only exist on the fringes of the roster, as press-box or shuttle guys useful for only a few games at a time in particular situations, or as AHL depth with the potential for a cup of coffee in the NHL but more counted on to fill out the farm team.
6) Non-Prospects - Players with likely no apparent NHL or significant AHL future. A broad range of players who you simply expect will never get into an NHL game at all, encompassing anything from low-end/depth AHL guys, to ECHL ones, to even lower minor pro or semi-pro leagues, to players who who would either leave North America to play in European Elite Leagues or never choose to leave Europe in the first place. Players who seem likely to not ever receive a contract from the Sharks also go here.
2) Elite Talent - Not quite the best of the best, these players are ones who aren't franchise-changers like Tier 1 but would still be among the most important pieces of a good team, or they may be the best players on a less talented team. They're the type who might make all-star teams intermittently or contend for a major award in a career year, but would otherwise be just below that level.
3) Core Role Players & Lottery Tickets - Middle-of-the-roster support types who are important to the depth of a strong team. Good enough to be solid, dependable, and necessary for a competitive team. But not talented enough that they can carry the load at their position. This is also the tier for guys who have high potential but significant risk as a boom/bust prospect.
4) Depth & Specialists - Players whose potential is to be sorted nearer to the bottom of the roster, but still in prominent and reliable regular roles. Or guys with outstanding talent in particular areas that's enough to earn NHL ice time, but which requires them to be protected and sheltered somewhat and thus creates a ceiling on their impact (PP/PK specialists, defence-first guys who can't be deployed offensively, scorers who can't be counted on in their own zone, etc)
5) Fringe Players & Org Filler - Players whose potential is low enough that they might only exist on the fringes of the roster, as press-box or shuttle guys useful for only a few games at a time in particular situations, or as AHL depth with the potential for a cup of coffee in the NHL but more counted on to fill out the farm team.
6) Non-Prospects - Players with likely no apparent NHL or significant AHL future. A broad range of players who you simply expect will never get into an NHL game at all, encompassing anything from low-end/depth AHL guys, to ECHL ones, to even lower minor pro or semi-pro leagues, to players who who would either leave North America to play in European Elite Leagues or never choose to leave Europe in the first place. Players who seem likely to not ever receive a contract from the Sharks also go here.
Finally here is a look at a bit more positionally granular idea of what Tier I represents in terms of a prospect's projected potential ceiling. This table will be added to as we progress through the tiers.
| Tier | Forwards | Defensemen | Goaltenders |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier I - Franchise Cornerstones (*THIS POLL*) | Surefire first line players. Perennial all-stars and frequent major award contenders | Absolute Elite #1 D-man. Regular Norris contender and all-star | Top-Shelf Vezina-caliber starter and workhorse starting goaltender. Is capable of regularly stealing games. |
This poll will close in 4 DAYS as will all subsequent ones.
Because I can imagine this is a bit confusing I will answer any questions or offer clarifications if you require.
But yeah, this is only Celebrini. You could even potentially argue that Celebrini might not be a "Perennial all-star and frequent major award contender", but he has as good of a shot as any.
