Unless injuries take a toll on the roster, I bet you it would be.
You don't spend all that money on Trouba, Panarin and Kreider to just narrowly miss the playoffs. They're going to make at least 1 big move this offseason (be that extending DeAngelo, trading DeAngelo, something else) where I would imagine a big influx of dollars will be shelled out again. It's not fair, but when the FO starts doing what it can to accelerate the rebuild, the results need to come along with it and the coach almost always goes before management starts to get axed.
There are coaches who could have done a better job with this roster, but that doesn't mean that Quinn should lose his job. There was both good and bad from him this season but as you said, its a learning process for him too. As long as he learns from his mistakes and changes things that aren't working, he'll be safe. If he continues to try to outsmart the league by using the same system and running Staal out there, we'll be talking about how his replacement fits in a year from now.