Shootouts mask how poor this team is playing

[Pyrophorus]

Shootouts are irrelevant in the playoffs. But we aren't talking about playoffs are we? So that's also irrelevant.

Overtime still very much exists and I'm pretty sure we do fairly well in that aspect as well. Detroit or New Jersey suck at shootouts but they are probably worst in OT. If they got to the shootout, doesn't that mean they weren't able to finish it in OT? Why would we be in trouble in OT when we don't even know how we would do? Why are they better equiped to win in OT than us when they are worst offensively than us?

This is rather confusing logic.

The system is in place and we are taking advantage of it as we should. Would it be better to lose in the SO so that we could cry that we are being robbed? I don't understand.

We haven't played all that well this year, we get it, but it's not like Detroit or New Jersey deserve it more than us either.

First of all, I hate these Math majors, who squirrel stats to discredit the team, even more.

Its a valid point here. If there were no shootout, and the outcome relied on a full team effort, what would their record be? I doubt it would be 0-13.

If something is to be hated, there are threads on the main board, about the NHL points system

 

[Leafidelity]

People will whine about anything. As long as the stupid shootout is part of the NHL, exploit it for all its worth.

 

[Pyrophorus]

I think its simple

Whatever we do. People will complain

I seriously believe when we win the cup, people will still complain

I believe that!

 

[-DeMo-]

7 of our 9 Shootout wins we blew a third period lead, and 3 of our 4 shootout loses we blew third period leads, what will hurt us more then winning in a shootout is giving these teams like Detriot/NJ an extra point because of our inability to keep leads.

 

[dubey]

I personally hope eventually the nonsense which is the shootout is removed from the NHL.

Its like a NBA game decided by a slam dunk competition or a MLB game decided by a home run competition.

It actually degrades the sport of hockey. IMO

It's like the most popular sport on the planet being decided by a ..oh wait

 

[tacoburrito]

a win is a win.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I personally hope eventually the nonsense which is the shootout is removed from the NHL.

Its like a NBA game decided by a slam dunk competition or a MLB game decided by a home run competition.

It actually degrades the sport of hockey. IMO

I agree completely. Shootouts are a joke.

last year the leafs were 0-5 in the shootouts, and nobody said anything about it. If it was talked about at all, it was only ever the question "why are the leafs so bad at shootouts?" and the answer was always "they lack skill".

now the leafs are 9-4 in the shootouts, and it's all anyone can talk about - but its no longer about talent, it's about the leafs being lucky.

When the leafs were bad at shootouts, it was proof that the leafs are bad. When the leafs are good at shootouts, its also proof that the leafs are bad.


The leafs are 9-9 in shootouts over this year and last - that's just luck balancing out finally.

The Leafs have missed the playoffs more than once based entirely on shootout points. There is no need to apologize for finally getting some luck in the shootouts for the first time...ever.

I talked about it last year, I said that our team was better than the standings show because of our poor performance in shootouts.

Absolutely it's luck. There is some skill involved of course but there is too much variance to the results over a season or two to be meaningful.

Of course there is no need to apologize for the luck. But let's no kid ourselves - luck is exactly what it is and the fact that we are clinging to a playoff spot is because of this luck.

Why in the hell would you be worried about Boston? I think our roster would relish another chance at beating the Bruins.

Maybe they would relish another chance, maybe not. But if playoffs were to start today, the Leafs would be a massive underdog to Boston and being worried would be entirely appropriate.

Unlike most, I found this post interesting and I thank the OP for posting these numbers. It only helps confirm what I have felt all along - last years team was much better than this years team.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

It's been known that that the shootout has helped the Leafs. But how many people have actually crunched the numbers and provided a standings table based on the old points system to illustrate how much the Leafs (and Capitals) have benefited from shootouts? Shootouts make the difference between Toronto being a near-average .541 winning pct team (by Eastern conference standards average is .545) with a 8th seed in the East vs. being an 11th seed team with a .439 winning pct team... That is a huge difference. Even when you consider that the average would only be .480 for the East using the old points system (.523 for the west! And .589 for the new points system. The west is kicking the East's ass).

And since we can't take advantage of shootouts in the playoffs and we choked under pressure vs. Boston in Game 7 last season, how does the fact that we are so heavily reliant on shootouts and have such a poor regulation record not concern Leafs fans?

Again, .541 is not their winning percentage.

 

[hoglund]

and NJ and DET are the two teams that benefit most from a cynical "drag it out to a shootout to get the point and hope for the extra point" strategy, so they deserve everything they get.

I don't remember anyone saying the Leafs were a good team in 06 and 07, they missed the playoffs by 1 point, but their shootout record was terrible and the main reason they missed the playoffs. Were they REALLY a playoff team, but the shootout screwed them in 06 and 07?

 

[ForSpareParts*]

That's pure bull crap.

No one was crying for us and saying that we were robbed when we absolutely sucked in the shootout, especially the first 2 years after the lockout when we were ousted by a single point. We were told to get more skill in the lineup and keep up with the NHL.

Teams that are not able to keep up because they keep losing in the shootout are not being robbed of anything. They are on equal footing with the rest of the league and they are not taking advantage of it. Cry me a river... seriously. The league wanted this. I believe the teams voted on this. They are responsible for the shootout.

What's next on the list of things that are irrelevant?

This is a good post and the thread should have been closed.

I'll highlight the most apt part for the OP.

Seriously why do threads like this exist? The best thing I saw last year was "The Leafs Didn't Deserve To Be In The Playoffs" stats. That was surely the most hilarious (yet highly negative) read.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Yes, technically its called points percentage, but the literal 'winning percentage' stat is of zero relevance for standings because points are used, not just wins.

So why call it something it isn't? If you want to discuss point percentages, do so. If you want to talk winning percentages, do so. What this poster really wants to get at is more focused on winning percentages, which as far as I am concerned, should be the be all and end all of all 8 playoff seeds. Simple.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

I personally hope eventually the nonsense which is the shootout is removed from the NHL.

Its like a NBA game decided by a slam dunk competition or a MLB game decided by a home run competition.

It actually degrades the sport of hockey. IMO

Its an abomination. I hated it when the Leafs sucked at it. I hate it when they are very good at it.

 

[hoglund]

in 06 and 07 you could easily have a thread titled "shootouts are masking how great this team is playing"

 

[likeabosski]

Told you so. I was called a negative nancy back in January coming off a hot streak. Now look at where the team is now. The Corsi Gods were right. That the Leafs' save % (and possibly shooting %) would regress to a degree and the Leafs' poor possession stats would come back to haunt them. Even Bernier's save % took a hit the past couple of games. Which leads me to believe that the problem may not just be Reimer. But the team playing in front of our goalies. I was also right in my off-season prediction that the Leafs would not make the playoffs and Nazem Kadri would regress (Kadri is still a good player. He's just not as good as he thinks he is. People expect Kadri to be a superstar but he's not getting paid like a superstar (yet). For $2.9m/yr, Kadri is a good performer and he stays healthy. On pace for potting 20 goals and 53 points in 78 games. Only missed 3 games due to suspension, 1 for bereavement leave, none due to injuries).

Tim Leiweke is the man who hired Masai Ujiri, the Toronto Raptors' fantastic moneyball GM. Trading away bloated contracts for overpaid players (Andrea Bargnani and Rudy Gay) for draft picks and useful, complimentary players who provide value for the salary they command. And Toronto FC management is making a serious push this year. Where is our Masai Ujiri (for the Leafs)? I can't take David Nonis seriously after signing David Clarkson for $5.25m/yr for 7 years and Dion Phaneuf for $7m/yr for 7 years. Phil Kessel is a bit pricey for a guy who is pretty one-dimensional (4th in goals and points. But he is soft and doesn't have a two-way game.) But his contract is not too unreasonable. Ovechkin is even more one-dimensional (fantastic goalscorer but he is a pure goalscorer. At least Kessel is a good playmaker), defensively irresponsible and lazy and he's got the biggest cap hit in the league.

 

[hoglund]

that stat could be used the opposite way for the last 8 years where shoot outs masked how great the Leafs were especially in 06 and 07 where they missed the playoffs by 1 point because they could never win in the shootout.

 

[11111111111]

That's pure bull crap.

No one was crying for us and saying that we were robbed when we absolutely sucked in the shootout, especially the first 2 years after the lockout when we were ousted by a single point. We were told to get more skill in the lineup and keep up with the NHL.

Teams that are not able to keep up because they keep losing in the shootout are not being robbed of anything. They are on equal footing with the rest of the league and they are not taking advantage of it. Cry me a river... seriously. The league wanted this. I believe the teams voted on this. They are responsible for the shootout.

What's next on the list of things that are irrelevant?

I'm not sure it is irrelevant. I'm not whining about the shootout existing, but there is evidence that shootouts are luck-based and difficult to repeat season-over-season:

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/13/5504268/nhl-shootout-luck

Knowing this, if the Leafs require the shootout to make the playoffs due to poor play otherwise, it is masking deeper issues. It is protecting the jobs of the people who built and run this clearly dysfunctional - if objectively skilled - team.

Again, I don't mind that shootouts exist, but I fear having to cheer for any team that directly relies on them. Last year the Leafs made the playoffs without any shootout luck. Wouldn't you prefer cheering for a team that doesn't rely on luck and instead wins due to repeatable processes like strong 5-on-5 play?

 

[hoglund]

I would have to agree with the above poster, the shoot out requires a lot of luck and essentially is an exciting way of flipping a coin to see who gets the win. Get rid of this side show.

 

[Tak7]

a win is a win.

No, any win isn't necessarily a win.

Go familiarize yourself with the standings' tie-breaker rules.

 

[hoglund]

No, any win isn't necessarily a win.

Go familiarize yourself with the standings' tie-breaker rules.

very true and a loss isn't really a loss if it happens after regulation because you get 1 point, it's too bad none of the 7 game losing streak losses were after regulation.

 

[Pyromaniac3]

People will whine about anything. As long as the stupid shootout is part of the NHL, exploit it for all its worth.

What the poster is trying to say is that Leafs have been involved in way too many shootouts and won a lot of them which cannot be replicated. Luck is heavily involved in shootout and don't expect to keep being great in shootouts.

 

[Hero]

Would be 6th last in NHL if shoot outs didn't happen and we ended in tie's.

But this team is good at shoot outs, so they got those points.