Sheldons' new look lines, will they work?

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Still needed a whole lot of Price and a lot of poor/unlucky shooting for it to work.

And a freak injury to one of our best players for that strategy to even be viable.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Keefe has learned this the hard way and now knows this that is why he was attempting to balance the offense during a real soft spot QofC in Leafs schedule.

For all those NHL prognosticators that claim Leafs can't win because they have toooo much cap tied up into toooo few players, this current Leafs line-up plays right into the hands of the opposition.

Keefe is 0-2 against CBJ and MON in the playoffs which are hardly powerhouses, so what will happen when we play serious contenders if those teams can already shutdown a Matthews -- Marner pairing?

Keefe fell into the same trap because he in the past believed stacking lines and simply playing your star players more is the solution and he learned the hard way it isn't. Creating a dynamic top 9 by spreading the wealth, creates matchup nightmares and mismatches for the opposition to defend will ultimately & hopefully bring more playoff success.

He needs to continue to experiment attempting to balance the attack better across more lines which means spreading the Cap cost.

To add to this when you stack your top lines and deploy a checking line that’s 12-15 minutes of game time that you essentially have no or low chances of getting a goal

 

[notbias]

Was Prices GSVA a lot higher than his regular season numbers? I haven’t checked but to me it just looked like good positioning and routine saves

Routine saves? Price and the posts played amazing in round 1.

If Montreal's game plan was giving up quality opportunities, they did a good job. Matthews/Marner/Hyman got good looks, they just couldn't bury, partly because Price played amazingly.

Limiting the other teams top line (including the Rocket winner) to 2 even strength and 0 power play goals in 7 games by whatever means possible, is effective shutdown hockey.

Results >>>>>> xStats

This is nice to see, it makes me feel better about losing to the second-best team in the NHL, they were really good, no shame in that.

 

[leafsfan5]

Still needed a whole lot of Price and a lot of poor/unlucky shooting for it to work.

Of course, but it’s not like they had a lot of options. The only way out of the series for MTL was poor/unlucky shooting along with superstar Price. It happened for them

 

[Stonehands1990]

Lemme see ....

According to evolving hockey he was at -7.93 (-.31/gm) goals above expected during the season, then +4.02 (+.57/gm) against the Leafs in round 1, +1.33 (+.33/gm) against the Jets in round 2, +3.66 (+.61/gm) against the Knights in round 3, and -1.66 (-.33/gm) against the Bolts in the Finals.

This definitely helps prove the argument of him standing on his head better than some other attempts

 

[egd27]

This is nice to see, it makes me feel better about losing to the second-best team in the NHL, they were really good, no shame in that.

Whatever helps you to sleep at night.

 

[forecheck]

Watch the games - He plays his top guys play 20 + minutes a game and 4th line 7 - 10.... Doesnt matter if he changes the lines , the numbers are the same ... They dont have a 4 line team and this will be their downfall in addition to a thin D .

 

[Dekes For Days]

Limiting the other teams top line (including the Rocket winner) to 2 even strength and 0 power play goals in 7 games by whatever means possible, is effective shutdown hockey.

They didn't though. Matthews for example was on for 3 goals for at 5v5, 2 on the PP, and 1 with the goalie pulled, and any limiting that was going on was because of Price, not because of Montreal's "shutdown" line getting dominated.

How do you think people look at us when we brag about xGF

I haven't seen anybody brag. I've seen people take more in-depth and realistic looks at what happened, consistent with both the eye test and pretty much every metric out there, in order to counter some false narratives that have been floating around.

It’s crazy how certain posters can’t see that Montreal had a game plan and they executed it.

What's really crazy is how certain posters can't see that Montreal had a game plan, they did a pretty bad job executing that game plan, but still won on the back of Price and some luck.

So who’s gonna be the one who tells Dekes For Days that looking at the stats cumulatively as opposed to game segments is intellectually dishonest lol.

It's not intellectually dishonest at all, and it doesn't even make much of a difference if you split things up.

 

[egd27]

They didn't though. Matthews for example was on for 3 goals for at 5v5,

Oh, the Matthews line was on for 3 goals 5v5 in 7 games not 2? Oh well then, I guess they weren't effectively shut down after all.

 

[Zybalto]

Feel like running a fun thought experiment here:

Stretching out the Hyman/Matthews/Marner lines 5v5 (score adjusted) play as if it were a single game in the regular season the last 2 years:
Shots: 32-28 Leafs
Scoring Chances: 36-26 Leafs
High Danger Chances: 16-10 Leafs
Score: 4-2 Leafs

Stretching out the Hyman/Matthews/Marner lines 5v5 (score adjusted) play as if it were a single game in the playoffs the last two years:
Shots: 38-26 Leafs
Scoring Chances: 37-26 Leafs
High Danger Chances: 14-5 Leafs
Score: 2-0 Leafs


Kind of a fun result. The Leafs first line was actually more dominant statistically and the end result was actually the same goal differential (due to the finishing/opposing goaltending). Doing a quick check of all other lines without any of these players on them:

All other lines 5v5 (score adjusted) play as if it were a single game in the regular season the last 2 years:
Shots: 29-29
Scoring Chances: 26-25 Leafs
High Danger Chances: 10-10
Score: 3-2 Leafs

All other lines 5v5 (score adjusted) play as if it were a single game in the playoffs the last two years:
Shots: 31-28 Leafs
Scoring Chances: 26-23 Leafs
High Danger Chances: 9-8 Leafs
Score: 2-2

Pretty much the same as the regular season with a slight drop in end results.

The best game on here is certainly the Leafs top line though. Just dominated the opposition in every way, including getting the win. I'll keep searching for a way to show that the Leafs top line has been the problem in the playoffs. I keep running into the issue of them looking pretty solid though.


How about special teams?
Goals scored with Matthews/Marner on the ice: 4 in 49 minutes TOI (Ugh)
Without them: 1 in 15 minutes (double Ugh)

The PP just plain sucked, especially with expectations.

The Leafs did counter the PP by having the best PK in the playoffs over the last 2 seasons though.
Special teams end up 5-3 in favor of the Leafs.

Total Shots over the two series: 425 - 357 Leafs (4th best differential over the last 2 years)

Just offensive rankings out of the 24 teams the last 2 seasons:
Shots: 4th highest out of 24
Scoring Chances: 5th highest out of 24
High Danger chances: 6th highest out of 24
xGF: 5th highest out of 24
Actual Goals for: 19th out of 24

OK, I've had enough.
Always going to have the argument over whether or not it was the goalkeeping or the choking on their shots that caused them to not score but one thing I am pretty confident in ruling out is that the two teams they faced had much to do with it. Getting peppered with shots and scoring chances isnt a strat, it just means you were unable to prevent them and then tried to brag about it afterwords. Seeing the stupid moves those teams made after their playoffs, maybe they actually did believe their own crap though. Who knows?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Oh, the Matthews line was on for 3 goals 5v5 in 7 games not 2? Oh well then, I guess they weren't effectively shut down after all.

Pointing out the inaccuracies in your post in regards to GF at 5v5, 6 on 5, and the PP was just one part of my post. The main point was that any limiting that was going on by the opposition was because of Price, not because of Montreal's "shutdown" line getting dominated.

 

[egd27]

Pointing out the inaccuracies in your post in regards to GF at 5v5, 6 on 5, and the PP was just one part of my post. The main point was that any limiting that was going on by the opposition was because of Price, not because of Montreal's "shutdown" line getting dominated.

As I posted earlier.......Results >>>>> xStats

(the "inaccuracy" was due to me referring to the forward line's goals, but you already knew that)

 

[Dekes For Days]

As I posted earlier.......Results >>>>> xStats

As I posted earlier, their results weren't good. They don't get to just take Price's good results and pretend they played well.

 

[Nylander88]

Ho-Sang getting a big chance to showcase at the Olympics. He'll be on what I'll call Canada's top line, McTavish- Staal- Ho-Sang
Would be a shame to let a hometown boy, who came home to get it right, just walk away to another NHL team. He can for sure be had on the cheap, and has expressed his loyalty to Dubas & Toronto. All of that said, where do you guys ever realistically see him fitting in? I think Kase is a guy you have to try and bring back next year, and keep playing with his best buddy Kampf. That leaves us with Marner, Nylander, Kase (if re-signed), Simmonds all on the RW. Unless you flip Nylander to the LW. Seems kind of log jammed for a skilled RW on this team

 

[Stonehands1990]

Lemme see ....

According to evolving hockey he was at -7.93 (-.31/gm) goals above expected during the season, then +4.02 (+.57/gm) against the Leafs in round 1, +1.33 (+.33/gm) against the Jets in round 2, +3.66 (+.61/gm) against the Knights in round 3, and -1.66 (-.33/gm) against the Bolts in the Finals.

I messed up here. I means GSAx LOL

 

[Stonehands1990]

As I posted earlier, their results weren't good. They don't get to just take Price's good results and pretend they played well.

I see you’ve hijacked the meaning of the word results LOL.
They won. We lost. Same story as the Columbus series

 

[Dekes For Days]

I see you’ve hijacked the meaning of the word results LOL. They won. We lost.

Nothing was "hijacked". "Results" can refer to many different things. Yes, they won. In terms of who won or lost the series, Montreal had a good result. In terms of how Price played, Price had good results. In terms of how Montreal's "shutdown" line played? Not very good results.

Just because a team wins, it doesn't mean everybody on that team had good results, and just because a team loses, it doesn't mean that everybody on that team had bad results. Montreal's "shutdown line" doesn't get to play badly and then pretend they played well by taking the credit for Price's results.