Speculation: Sharks Roster Discussion Part 2

[Timos Death Stare]

I'm not talking about +/- or goals against, I'm talking shot metrics leakier than Tierney by several magnitude. And Labanc is literally in the bottom 1% of the league's forwards in shot supression.



"JVR" and "elite" don't belong in the same post. Plus, I have no desire to be hosed by the Leafs again.

Who says we'd get hosed again? He's a decent fall back in my opinion for the right deal. Other potentials would be Henrique or Camalleri. We need more offensive pop.

 

[Sharksrule04]

A few thoughts:
-I guess people either have no interest in trading Donskoi or don't think he has much value around the league since I haven't seen him mentioned in any offers for Duchene.
-Why do people seeing getting Duchene as a move to win now? Obviously he would immediately boost our team but he is only in his mid 20's, he'd be a great add for the franchise for the next 10 years.
-I'm higher on Meier than others here so I don't want him going the other way.
-I'd be fine shipping out Braun if it meant getting Duchene. Would prefer to send Dillon, but what kind of value does he have around the league. I imagine not much.
-I would be fine with sending Goldobin, Ryan/Mueller, 1st Round pick and Braun/Dillon. I don't think that get's it done though. Mueller has looked really solid in these last few games, and he is a former first round pick so you never know how a team might value him.
-I also would be willing to trade Donskoi if it meant getting Duchene. I think Duchene would be our 2nd best forward immediately, if not best with the way Thornton is playing this season.

Hertl-Thornton-Pavs
Labanc-Couture-Donskoi
Marleau-Duchene-Meier
Boedker-Karlsson-Ward/Wingels/Haley

This would be a pretty sick lineup. Can obviously change around who is playing with who.

 

[CrypTic]

A few thoughts:
-I guess people either have no interest in trading Donskoi or don't think he has much value around the league since I haven't seen him mentioned in any offers for Duchene.

I didn't include him bc I don't think his value is high. I may be wrong but my guess is that he's more valuable to us than to other teams. I'd trade him but not as a throw in and he's not valuable enough to be the centerpiece.

-Why do people seeing getting Duchene as a move to win now? Obviously he would immediately boost our team but he is only in his mid 20's, he'd be a great add for the franchise for the next 10 years.

I think some ppl don't put much value on how much a player would help our team in a few years bc they think we'll suck so who cares? Or else that it's too hard to guess how things will shake out in, e.g., 3 years so they don't value that nearly as much as what a trade will do for us now. It's not that they don't understand that Duchene will help us in a few years as well as now (unlike, e.g., Cammalleri), it's that they don't place much value on whether (or how much) a player will help us in a few years.

-I'm higher on Meier than others here so I don't want him going the other way.
-I'd be fine shipping out Braun if it meant getting Duchene. Would prefer to send Dillon, but what kind of value does he have around the league. I imagine not much.
-I would be fine with sending Goldobin, Ryan/Mueller, 1st Round pick and Braun/Dillon. I don't think that get's it done though. Mueller has looked really solid in these last few games, and he is a former first round pick so you never know how a team might value him.
-I also would be willing to trade Donskoi if it meant getting Duchene. I think Duchene would be our 2nd best forward immediately, if not best with the way Thornton is playing this season.

Hertl-Thornton-Pavs
Labanc-Couture-Donskoi
Marleau-Duchene-Meier
Boedker-Karlsson-Ward/Wingels/Haley

This would be a pretty sick lineup. Can obviously change around who is playing with who.

I don't think Braun or Donskoi get Duchene, especially if the Avs fans are right and they want a young, LH d-man. As others have noted, if players like Faulk, Hanifin, Trouba are in play, we probably don't stand a chance. If they aren't, maybe we do but I'd guess that the Avs want to get younger if they trade Duchene. Donskoi is one year younger but less upside and less proven. Braun is almost 30 and a RHD. I think Meier would almost certainly have to be included and even then it's a longshot.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I didn't include him bc I don't think his value is high. I may be wrong but my guess is that he's more valuable to us than to other teams. I'd trade him but not as a throw in and he's not valuable enough to be the centerpiece.

I agree here. Not sure how many other teams see him as a top 6 forward, but scoring the GWG in a Stanley Cup Final game could increase that awareness.

I think some ppl don't put much value on how much a player would help our team in a few years bc they think we'll suck so who cares? Or else that it's too hard to guess how things will shake out in, e.g., 3 years so they don't value that nearly as much as what a trade will do for us now. It's not that they don't understand that Duchene will help us in a few years as well as now (unlike, e.g., Cammalleri), it's that they don't place much value on whether (or how much) a player will help us in a few years.

Fair enough, I just think getting Duchene is a future move as well as a win now move. I think he'd be a great boost in keeping us competitive after the Thornton/Marleau era. If we kept the players I mentioned we'd have Duchene, Couture, Hertl, Meier, Burns, Vlasic, Labanc, and Pavs depending on how far in the future we're talking. That looks like it could be a solid top 6 forwards and top 2 D to build around.

I don't think Braun or Donskoi get Duchene, especially if the Avs fans are right and they want a young, LH d-man. As others have noted, if players like Faulk, Hanifin, Trouba are in play, we probably don't stand a chance. If they aren't, maybe we do but I'd guess that the Avs want to get younger if they trade Duchene. Donskoi is one year younger but less upside and less proven. Braun is almost 30 and a RHD. I think Meier would almost certainly have to be included and even then it's a longshot.

Yea, personally I don't think we have much of a shot in getting him because who wants a package of 3-4 solid potential/players when you can get 1 young stud and possibly more. If Roy had developed and been injury free the last couple seasons, I'd think we'd have a better chance. If they're looking for a blue chip D-man prospect or player already contributing in the NHL then we have no shot.

 

[CrypTic]

Fair enough, I just think getting Duchene is a future move as well as a win now move. I think he'd be a great boost in keeping us competitive after the Thornton/Marleau era. If we kept the players I mentioned we'd have Duchene, Couture, Hertl, Meier, Burns, Vlasic, Labanc, and Pavs depending on how far in the future we're talking. That looks like it could be a solid top 6 forwards and top 2 D to build around.

I agree. I tend to value the future more highly than most ppl on this board, whether it's things like the value of a young player like Duchene or potential problems in long contracts. But I think that ppl who don't have a valid POV as well. I was trying to present my understanding of why they don't put that much value on how a trade might affect us in a few years.

 

[Juxtaposer]

That surprises me, I mean that doesn't align with the eye test. You don't see him making terrible plays or reads, mostly pretty good ones. But I guess that's why we have advanced stats.

I actually have noticed that the current Couture line spends a lot of time in the D zone, but I did not expect it to be 57% of the time. That line is a rather quick-strike type of offense.

A few thoughts:
-I guess people either have no interest in trading Donskoi or don't think he has much value around the league since I haven't seen him mentioned in any offers for Duchene.
-Why do people seeing getting Duchene as a move to win now? Obviously he would immediately boost our team but he is only in his mid 20's, he'd be a great add for the franchise for the next 10 years.
-I'm higher on Meier than others here so I don't want him going the other way.

You don't get Duchene without trading Meier. Simple as that.

 

[hohosaregood]

Labanc+Meier+Mueller+pick(?)

 

[ScottyDont]

How about Dillion+Tierney+Mueller+Roy? Probably not enough, but they load up on potential D-men

 

[OrrNumber4]

How about Dillion+Tierney+Mueller+Roy? Probably not enough, but they load up on potential D-men

They only have so many spots. Quantity for quality only goes so far.

I'm also not convinced that they are only looking for a LHD. Barrie has come up in trade rumors. If they are really looking for a reset, they might take who they can get and then makes moves around that...

 

[Juxtaposer]

Labanc+Meier+Mueller+pick(?)

Labanc AND Meier makes me squeamish but it's still maybe not enough. Not sure if I'd do it.

How about Dillion+Tierney+Mueller+Roy? Probably not enough, but they load up on potential D-men

Sakic blocks DW's number after this offer, that's how awful it is.

 

[ScottyDont]

How about Dillion+Tierney+Mueller+Roy? Probably not enough, but they load up on potential D-men

Ok seriously, Dillion+Tierney+Mueller+Roy+1st

Trade Wingels for a 3rd.

Meier-Thornton-Pavs
Boedker-Couture-Lebanc
Goldobin-Duchene-Donskoi
Marleau-Hertl-Ward
Karlson

Vlasic-Braun
Martin-Burns
Schlemko-DeMelo

Damnit, off by 10k...

 

[DonskoiDonscored]

Duchene is going to cost one of Hertl or Couture. Let's not kid ourselves in thinking that throwing in pieces left and right in a quantity for quality trade will get Sakic to bite.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Duchene is going to cost one of Hertl or Couture. Let's not kid ourselves in thinking that throwing in pieces left and right in a quantity for quality trade will get Sakic to bite.

I disagree with that. Couture does nothing for the Avs (he's like 28) and I doubt the Avs front office is smart enough to recognize how good Hertl is. Given age and salary, I wouldn't trade Hertl for Duchene straight up. But that's just me.

 

[Alwalys]

I actually have noticed that the current Couture line spends a lot of time in the D zone, but I did not expect it to be 57% of the time. That line is a rather quick-strike type of offense.

I do notice that however it's not like Labanc is making obvious mistakes that lead to that. Maybe he's just not quite up to speed in breaking up passes, etc.

 

[Lebanezer]

Is the perception out there that Landeskog will command less than Duchene?

 

[Juxtaposer]

I do notice that however it's not like Labanc is making obvious mistakes that lead to that. Maybe he's just not quite up to speed in breaking up passes, etc.

Labanc isn't making obvious mistakes, but maybe he isn't quick enough to challenge the play effectively, like Tierney. Either way, it's just that line combo (Donskoi-Couture-Labanc) that's horrific. Swap out either of those wingers for either of Ward or Boedker and it's fine. Ward has had a tremendous defensive impact this year last time I checked. Hertl also has been an absurdly good shot suppressor.

I've noticed that Couture hasn't been as great defensively in the past couple of years as he was in 2013-2014, when he should have been a Selke candidate.

Is the perception out there that Landeskog will command less than Duchene?

For me, yes, but I dunno about among NHL GMs. Landeskog is the type of player who GMs over-value (good defensively, physical, captain) and Duchene is the type the under-value (highly skilled).

Landeskog's a good player but I would literally pay twice as much for Duchene.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I disagree with that. Couture does nothing for the Avs (he's like 28) and I doubt the Avs front office is smart enough to recognize how good Hertl is. Given age and salary, I wouldn't trade Hertl for Duchene straight up. But that's just me.

That's a tough one. It's hard for me to fairly judge because Hertl is still one of, if not my #1 favorite Sharks players currently. His health greatly concerns me though. If he can't be a guy who plays close to 80 games per season then he'll never develop to his true potential. Do we think Hertl will be a 30 goal 70 point player? If not I don't see how you turn down that trade. Duchene is a top notch scorer and is still young.

 

[Juxtaposer]

That's a tough one. It's hard for me to fairly judge because Hertl is still one of, if not my #1 favorite Sharks players currently. His health greatly concerns me though. If he can't be a guy who plays close to 80 games per season then he'll never develop to his true potential. Do we think Hertl will be a 30 goal 70 point player? If not I don't see how you turn down that trade. Duchene is a top notch scorer and is still young.

I think Hertl will be a 30 goal, 65 point player, but a lot of his value for me is in his possession and defensive abilities. Hertl is an elite shot-suppressor and an elite possession-driver. Add in his age and contract and I lean towards Hertl.

However, if we could dump Boedker in that trade, I'd be more open.

And yeah, Hertl is my absolute favorite Shark outside of Marleau, whom I learned to be strictly objective about on this board the hard way. So I may be overrating Hertl, who knows, but the numbers tell me he's elite and my eyes tell me he's elite. Let's not forget he was our best forward this season until he got hurt.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I think Hertl will be a 30 goal, 65 point player, but a lot of his value for me is in his possession and defensive abilities. Hertl is an elite shot-suppressor and an elite possession-driver. Add in his age and contract and I lean towards Hertl.

However, if we could dump Boedker in that trade, I'd be more open.

And yeah, Hertl is my absolute favorite Shark outside of Marleau, whom I learned to be strictly objective about on this board the hard way. So I may be overrating Hertl, who knows, but the numbers tell me he's elite and my eyes tell me he's elite. Let's not forget he was our best forward this season until he got hurt.

Marleau is still my all time favorite because he was my favorite during most of my youth watching the Sharks. Hertl is probably my favorite these days though.

I have no doubt that Hertl could be elite, but knee injuries scare me. If he had broken a rib previously and maybe another upper body injury (non-concussion) I wouldn't be concerned, but the repeated knee problems could easily destroy a career. I have faith in what the franchise is saying regarding this procedure being a move to protect his future but I am still skeptical that it is even possible with the knee issues he's had.

Trading Hertl would probably be the hardest thing for me as a Sharks fan since Jeff Friesen being moved but Duchene might be a worthy player to do that exchange for.

That being said, I agree with you when you said the Avs probably don't understand how good Hertl is. I think the only thing the league remembers about Hertl is his 4 goal game and that was years ago now so much of the league probably assumes he didn't develop as planned.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Ok seriously, Dillion+Tierney+Mueller+Roy+1st

Trade Wingels for a 3rd.

Meier-Thornton-Pavs
Boedker-Couture-Lebanc
Goldobin-Duchene-Donskoi
Marleau-Hertl-Ward
Karlson

Vlasic-Braun
Martin-Burns
Schlemko-DeMelo

Damnit, off by 10k...

That is pretty bad. If the best piece coming out of Duchene is a late 1st round pick, then Sakic is asking to be fired.

Labanc/Meier + 1st + Boedker/Dillon/Braun + B prospect (Weiderer/Gregor/Gambrell/etc)

I suggest one of the Boedker/Dillon/Braun because they can take care of cap repercussions as well as give them a moderately attractive piece. If a team is getting Duchene, I doubt the Avs want more than 3 pieces back. They would be interested in good players .. not quantity.

 

[DG93]

I'd offer Goldobin + Braun + 1st and hope that's enough...Duchene is a beast

Hertl/Meier-Jumbo-Pavelski
Meier/Hertl-Duchene/Couture-Labanc
Donskoi-Couture/Duchene-Ward
Marleau-Tierney-Boedker

Nice

 

[CanadienShark]

Labanc+Meier+Mueller+pick(?)

I'm leaning towards no on this, and I think the Avs would feel similarly.

How about Dillion+Tierney+Mueller+Roy? Probably not enough, but they load up on potential D-men

That's just not enough makes no sense for them and hurts our depth. Of course I'd do it, but that sort of offer doesn't really suit us well.

 

[CanadienShark]

For me, yes, but I dunno about among NHL GMs. Landeskog is the type of player who GMs over-value (good defensively, physical, captain) and Duchene is the type the under-value (highly skilled).

Landeskog's a good player but I would literally pay twice as much for Duchene.

Talk about hyperbole...

 

[Juxtaposer]

Talk about hyperbole...

I wouldn't move Meier for Landeskog. I'd think about moving Hertl for Duchene. Seems right to me. Duchene is a game-breaking talent, Landeskog is a nice piece. Duchene can score no matter who he plays with.

 

[CanadienShark]

I wouldn't move Meier for Landeskog. I'd think about moving Hertl for Duchene. Seems right to me. Duchene is a game-breaking talent, Landeskog is a nice piece. Duchene can score no matter who he plays with.

I'd move Meier for Landeskog and walk away feeling great. I'd think about Hertl for Duchene, yes. I think Duchene is more valuable than Landeskog and clearly so. Double the value? Not a chance.