Definitely a rough place to start, since this Sharks team is going to be terrible and he will probably be fired before they get good
Let's say the first three seasons for Warsofsky go like this:
Year 1: Point total in the 60's (shouldn't be too difficult because 23-24 was an aberration due to injuries and dismantling the team)
Year 2: Point total in the 70's
Year 3: Point total in the 80's, flirting with a playoff spot, but ultimately doesn't get it.
That would be 3 years of year over year improvement. If that happens, he 100% gets an extension (Assuming his new HC contract is for 3 years), despite no playoffs in those years.
I firmly believe he's the next Jon Cooper (i.e., the next great NHL HC, not necessarily that his success will match Cooper's), and that he will end up the longest tenured Sharks head coach of all time, passing McLellan's 7 seasons.