Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[Ianturnedbull]

Of course you don't just say covid killed our team and we can't do anything about it. Covid didn't kill our team. It created an additional obstacle, but it's still very possible to build around it, and we largely have maneuvered and adapted around it extremely well to create an excellent team. The issue is that some are so consumed by thinking a trade is a necessity when it's not. Trading Matthews, Marner, or Nylander is extremely unlikely to make us better, and pretty likely to make us worse, and whatever your personal feelings on Tavares are, it doesn't really matter because there's zero chance he leaves Toronto.

I think that you're probably right. Dubas has made a few bold moves, but the JT, MM, AM, WN forward group will never be traded. Dubas/Shanny will die on that hill if they have to.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Right that is exactly my point. Tampa does a better job at getting depth players. That is the key difference. The cap going to the forwards isn’t an issue because we always have enough money to sign guys for our bottom six. But we just keep missing the mark and investing in the wrong guys. Also Tampa is able to sustain success year after year because they take advantage of players on ELC’s. We need to graduate our guys and stop signing older useless players in UFA.

Colorado is built very similarly to us and they will have most of their money tied up in forwards as well in the next two years. But their depth guys and ELC guys play a lot of key minutes. We need guys like Robertson, Steeves, Holmberg to step in. We need Sandin and Liljegren to take another step. Sign younger more effective bargain deals like Bunting. Our Pro scouting department needs to really go to work this summer.

The key difference between us and Tampa is that Tampa spent just over 35.3 million on 2 forwards, a goalie and a dman.

We have spent a little over 40.4 million on just 4 forwards.

The Aves 2nd highest paid player is makar at 9mil and none of their forwards make 10+. They are not built the same.

 

[Trapper]

The key difference between us and Tampa is that Tampa spent just over 35.3 million on 2 forwards, a goalie and a dman.

We have spent a little over 40.4 million on just 4 forwards.

The Aves 2nd highest paid player is makar at 9mil and none of their forwards make 10+. They are not built the same.

You’ve got to be really careful who you commit the money too.

You have to see both regular season and playoffs to judge.

You can’t just say this guy is skilled, this guy is skilled, pay them.

You have to select and you have to balance.
It’s the reality of a cap and the reality of the team concept. You expect 1 or 2 stars to outplay the stars and the depth on the other team.

 

[andora]

Oshie, Buchnevich, and Miller were not on the level of Nylander when they were traded, and none of those trades led to whatever level of success those teams had. Miller was not coming off a 100 point season. He was coming off a 47 point season, and was a secondary piece.

Oshie was traded away 4 years before they won the cup. Brouwer was only there one year and then left in UFA. They had literally nothing from that trade when they won. In fact, Oshie went on to score 21 points in 24 playoff games and help Washington win the cup.

The Buchnevich trade was more a reaction to their upcoming cap crunch, and it was a bad trade. The Buchnevich trade didn't make them better. Having a "heavier roster" didn't make them better. Fluking into a franchise goalie in the 4th round a decade ago and having them put up one of the best seasons by a goaltender in the cap era made them better. And they still did worse than us against Tampa and barely got by two teams using their backups and 3rd stringers in said post-season.

That was a bad deal that set them back. They immediately went from a top team to a wild card team that barely squeaked into the playoffs and lost in 5 games in the 1st round. If any trade led to their cups, it was going the opposite direction and acquiring Kessel the next offseason, not Hornqvist.

Pretty much every recent cup winner has made a deal like this because you're just pointing to random trades made within a half decade of a team winning or being moderately successful, and then arbitrarily attributing that success to it and somehow claiming it means we need to trade Nylander. Most teams in the league have a trade that would qualify, including the Leafs with Kadri.

I do find this type of reply interesting and in this case these trades are being audited within a vacuum

Those three werent on nylander's level, i can appreciate that if nylander is an 87 and those other three were maybe low 80s. But they were all supplemental scoring on teams that chose to make trades that changed the dressing room.

The oshie trade was 4 years before they won yes (2 years less than our streak) but it is possible the effects of it stayed even without a player being on the roster.

Buchnevich trade had money implications yes.. however the rangers just ended a conference final run with numerous pieces in place to have consistent success. They appear fine.

Is the hornqvist trade allowed to sit beside the kessel trade as both important? And they won the following year correct, then won again. I believe that is a pretty quick turnaround of that trade being fine.

Half a decade is incorrect.. the longest in those examples is st lpuis at 4 years. I think the point of these is showing that gms that had balls to make such deals can make their teams better set up for success. Even if it was half a decade that is still sooner than toronto's almost there approach.

 

[ToneDog]

I think that you're probably right. Dubas has made a few bold moves, but the JT, MM, AM, WN forward group will never be traded. Dubas/Shanny will die on that hill if they have to.

Problem is Dubas/Shanny are taking Leafs fans down with them and not soon enough.

The key difference between us and Tampa is that Tampa spent just over 35.3 million on 2 forwards, a goalie and a dman.

We have spent a little over 40.4 million on just 4 forwards.

The Aves 2nd highest paid player is makar at 9mil and none of their forwards make 10+. They are not built the same.

Another difference is they have numerous solid players on their roster that they drafted outside the first round. We have Engvall.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And just for a pointless pleasure what does 11 million dollars buy you on tampa

Paul 750000
Hagel 1500000
Colton 1125000
Cernak 3000000
Cirelli 4800000

For the record, you're comparing a UFA signed prior to the pandemic flat cap to a mixture of bridged RFAs signed during the pandemic flat cap, players at max retention, and a player that cost two 1st+ because he was abnormally cheap, on a team that's already been forced to purge their less efficient players due to repeated cap crunches.

Killorn + Palat + Bellemare doesn't look quite as good. Neither does Johnsson + Compher + Murray for Colorado.

 

[andora]

For the record, you're comparing a UFA signed prior to the pandemic flat cap to a mixture of bridged RFAs signed during the pandemic flat cap, players at max retention, and a player that cost two 1st+ because he was abnormally cheap, on a team that's already been forced to purge their less efficient players due to repeated cap crunches.

Killorn + Palat + Bellemare doesn't look quite as good. Neither does Johnsson + Compher + Murray for Colorado.

Sigh.. yes i know context in which the players were acquired counts and contract context counts

Or... tampa through there management effectively spent 11 million on what i listed through successful decisions. As i posted earlier what the numbers loosley looked like without tavares on the books could have set the leafs up to do something similar

That is the point of the comparison life without tavares contract

 

[Gallagbi]

Sigh.. yes i know context in which the players were acquired counts and contract context counts

Or... tampa through there management effectively spent 11 million on what i listed through successful decisions. As i posted earlier what the numbers loosley looked like without tavares on the books could have set the leafs up to do something similar

That is the point of the comparison life without tavares contract

You're looking at Kadri, AJ and Kapanen for Tavares here. Thats the realistic comparison IMO with two of thoae deals up this summer - Kadri (UFA) and Kap (RFA)

 

[Gallagbi]

The team plays like the management of this team. They have a hard time adapting when things get figured out on them. The PP...the PK...its like if it doesn't go exactly as planned...we just give up.

This is where results can really screw with our perceptions and what actually occurred during the process.

At first i agreed this team tends to give up when challenged. Then i thought of the GTG in Game 7 after the disallowed goal. I thought of the OT in Game 6 and how we carried the play after a botched 5on3 call tied the game. I thought to the comebacks against MTL in game 5 and 6, especially that OT they dominated and lost. Game 4 against CLB with the miracle comeback when every human, us included, thought we were done.

Feels like a conversion problem rather than a will problem

 

[andora]

You're looking at Kadri, AJ and Kapanen for Tavares here. Thats the realistic comparison IMO with two of thoae deals up this summer - Kadri (UFA) and Kap (RFA)

Kind of but my hindsight revisionist history hopefully would have traded johnsson and kapanen before they signed their 3 million deals to help other areas of the team

Again in my hindsight revisionist history we still have moore and grundstrom

 

[andora]

This is where results can really screw with our perceptions and what actually occurred during the process.

At first i agreed this team tends to give up when challenged. Then i thought of the GTG in Game 7 after the disallowed goal. I thought of the OT in Game 6 and how we carried the play after a botched 5on3 call tied the game. I thought to the comebacks against MTL in game 5 and 6, especially that OT they dominated and lost. Game 4 against CLB with the miracle comeback when every human, us included, thought we were done.

Feels like a conversion problem rather than a will problem

It is too much how did we get here.

It is like watching a team trying to tie it with the goalie pulled and saying where was that type of effort the rest of the game

The will is inconsistent until it is panic it seems.

 

[Gallagbi]

It is too much how did we get here.

It is like watching a team trying to tie it with the goalie pulled and saying where was that type of effort the rest of the game

The will is inconsistent until it is panic it seems.

In some instances, like Game 4 v. clb, but would you say Game 5 v. BOS or TB to take 3-2 series leads was panic time? I also thought we played well in game 6 this year, especially to get a lead going into the third. Hell, you could go back to the first game 7 vs. Bos as another example

Really the only consistent is losing in a winner take all game

 

[andora]

In some instances, like Game 4 v. clb, but would you say Game 5 v. BOS or TB to take 3-2 series leads was panic time? I also thought we played well in game 6 this year, especially to get a lead going into the third. Hell, you could go back to the first game 7 vs. Bos as another example

Really the only consistent is losing in a winner take all game

Yes fair enough

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sigh.. yes i know context in which the players were acquired counts and contract context counts Or... tampa through there management effectively spent 11 million on what i listed through successful decisions. As i posted earlier what the numbers loosley looked like without tavares on the books could have set the leafs up to do something similar

We do have something similar. We could just as easily point to Rielly + Campbell + Bunting + Kampf + Mikeyehev for under 11m. But that doesn't mean that that is an accurate representation of what somebody is going to get with 11m out of UFA, which makes the comparison to Tavares pretty useless. Not signing Tavares doesn't get us those Tampa players you named.

 

[andora]

We do have something similar. We could just as easily point to Rielly + Campbell + Bunting + Kampf + Mikeyehev for under 11m. But that doesn't mean that that is an accurate representation of what somebody is going to get with 11m out of UFA, which makes the comparison to Tavares pretty useless. Not signing Tavares doesn't get us those Tampa players you named.

You are correct it doesnt but it would give a hell of a lot more flexibility. That is all i am saying.

I dont think any comparison i would make would pass so i will just leave it with flexibility

 

[Dekes For Days]

You are correct it doesnt but it would give a hell of a lot more flexibility.

It would give more flexibility (that we would have had anyway if not for a global pandemic-induced flat cap), but we'd also be a worse team, and replacing that lost value/impact would have likely required either that 11m or additional assets, or both.

 

[francis246]

Problem is Dubas/Shanny are taking Leafs fans down with them and not soon enough.



Another difference is they have numerous solid players on their roster that they drafted outside the first round. We have Engvall.

I literally said the big difference is drafting.. some of y’all don’t read I stg. I’ll repeat myself verbatim. “The reason Tampa is able to have sustained success is because they are good at taking advantage of guys on ELC’s.”

Tampa is one of the best at replacing their guys internally. The move guys out and have their replacement from the AHL ready.

Toronto needs to start graduating our guys like Steeves, Robertson, Holmberg. Guys who are NHL ready and can contribute instead of signing old useless vets.

 

[ToneDog]

I literally said the big difference is drafting.. some of y’all don’t read I stg. I’ll repeat myself verbatim. “The reason Tampa is able to have sustained success is because they are good at taking advantage of guys on ELC’s.”

Tampa is one of the best at replacing their guys internally. The move guys out and have their replacement from the AHL ready.

Toronto needs to start graduating our guys like Steeves, Robertson, Holmberg. Guys who are NHL ready and can contribute instead of signing old useless vets.

No offence but I was not responding to your post but we are in agreement.

 

[francis246]

You are correct it doesnt but it would give a hell of a lot more flexibility. That is all i am saying.

I dont think any comparison i would make would pass so i will just leave it with flexibility

Having cap flexibility doesn’t always mean success. The more flexibility you have the more mistakes you are susceptible to. People keep saying if we had flexibility we’d be better. FALSE. There is no way to prove one way or the other that our spendings with the cap flexibility could also be bad. People are assuming we’d all of a sudden have a more impactful roster. It’s not true. I actually think we’d have a more depleted prospect pool because we’d have the cap space to over pay on a trade target. We’d probably have a lot more Nick Ritchie type contracts to deal with (overpaying fringe players and them not living up to expectations).

It’s about a 50% chance we are in the exact same spot as we are presently. 25% chance we are better, 25% chance we are worse.

I think people are really going on about nothing. It’s all hypothetical at the end of the day

No offence but I was not responding to your post but we are in agreement.

Oh my mistake. I apologize for mis reading it

It would give more flexibility (that we would have had anyway if not for a global pandemic-induced flat cap), but we'd also be a worse team, and replacing that lost value/impact would have likely required either that 11m or additional assets, or both.

This exactly! I don’t get how people are not comprehending that. They are crying about Tavares but we would have overpaid in prospects or assets to use our cap space to get an impact player. No matter which route you use people would be pissed and there is no guarantee that a trade would have been available for us.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Having cap flexibility doesn’t always mean success. The more flexibility you have the more mistakes you are susceptible to.

Yep. You tend to get the most efficient value and least risk from high-end players and cheap depth. Pretty much the biggest way GMs get into trouble is when they have cap space to spend on middle-tier UFAs.

 

[Gallagbi]

I literally said the big difference is drafting.. some of y’all don’t read I stg. I’ll repeat myself verbatim. “The reason Tampa is able to have sustained success is because they are good at taking advantage of guys on ELC’s.”

Tampa is one of the best at replacing their guys internally. The move guys out and have their replacement from the AHL ready.

Toronto needs to start graduating our guys like Steeves, Robertson, Holmberg. Guys who are NHL ready and can contribute instead of signing old useless vets.

Theres a balance, we do need to graduate our youth more and avoid the Clifford/Simmonds of the world, but we still need to hit on the Bunting, Spezza and Gio types like TB did with Perry, Bellemare and Maroon.

Guys like Lilj, Sandin, Robertson and Steeves(etc.) would be absolutely huge for this team. We need them to elevate the middle of the lineup beyond what weve seem from Mik Engvall and to a lesser extent Kerfoot in these past few playoffs.

 

[andora]

It would give more flexibility (that we would have had anyway if not for a global pandemic-induced flat cap), but we'd also be a worse team, and replacing that lost value/impact would have likely required either that 11m or additional assets, or both.

pandemic yes, everyone got the same. it's fine, some came out fine, worse, better etc.. Being a worse team is a very subjective statement to make. Do you believe that we would have been worse as in not making the playoffs? we don't have a large spectrum here because we have made the playoffs but can't win a round. the only worse is not making the playoffs in the current state.

being smart with what we had in terms of depth and contracts and development would have of course required use of some or all of that money but it depends on how it would have been used. post fab 4 contracts Dubas has proven he can extract value down to the thousands of dollars, i am fairly confident he would have done fine with his skillset navigating that. Tavares turns out to be bad timing more than anything.

I literally said the big difference is drafting.. some of y’all don’t read I stg. I’ll repeat myself verbatim. “The reason Tampa is able to have sustained success is because they are good at taking advantage of guys on ELC’s.”

Tampa is one of the best at replacing their guys internally. The move guys out and have their replacement from the AHL ready.

Toronto needs to start graduating our guys like Steeves, Robertson, Holmberg. Guys who are NHL ready and can contribute instead of signing old useless vets.

200% agree

we have had those as well
Moore - under 1 million through 20/21 - second contract 1.875
Engvall - only 1.25 million ended this year
Grundstrom - under 1 million ended this year
Durzi - under 1 million ended this year
Liljegren and Sandin under 1 million both ending this year

Having cap flexibility doesn’t always mean success. The more flexibility you have the more mistakes you are susceptible to. People keep saying if we had flexibility we’d be better. FALSE. There is no way to prove one way or the other that our spendings with the cap flexibility could also be bad. People are assuming we’d all of a sudden have a more impactful roster. It’s not true. I actually think we’d have a more depleted prospect pool because we’d have the cap space to over pay on a trade target. We’d probably have a lot more Nick Ritchie type contracts to deal with (overpaying fringe players and them not living up to expectations).

It’s about a 50% chance we are in the exact same spot as we are presently. 25% chance we are better, 25% chance we are worse.

I think people are really going on about nothing. It’s all hypothetical at the end of the day

it does not mean success - however the situation i believe could have been managed effectively by Dubas due to what he has shown he can do financially/value extraction. it would have been from a completely different place, it feels more so now that he does it out of necessity versus what could have been calculated planning.

the part about overspending prospects on a trade target and wasting cap that way feels convenient. also Ritchie was a free agent signing not a trade acquisition but overpaying in trades becomes less likely with the more players you deal with internally and decide who to pay. I mean the year johnsson and kapanen were coming off their ELCs we could have got some value back for them, whether it was draft picks to continue to replenishment, or at that point use one of them to attach to zaitsev and the other for draft picks.

Yep. You tend to get the most efficient value and least risk from high-end players and cheap depth. Pretty much the biggest way GMs get into trouble is when they have cap space to spend on middle-tier UFAs.

but i am looking at the middle tier contracts we could have managed internally due to being our own grown players. trading would have been more important than free agent signings (outside of small depth ones) the way the team and future were constructed.

it's interesting how whether you look at no tavares models versus what is actually here in front of us in my opinions the same perceived weaknesses exist. goaltending in both models is suspect, and defence in both models still have question marks. it would have been interesting in the no tavares model to see what the potential trades would have looked like for defencemen.

and i should also add that i am really hoping kids get some minutes this season. like francis said steeves and holmberg and robertson need extended time this year.

 

[Felix the Cat Potvin]

Prefacing this post with the statement that I respect Kyle Dubas as a person, and find it quite impressive that he's risen to such a professional position so relatively early in his life.

However, things I don't like about Dubas:

1. He says nothing in his press conferences. He basically says we're going to look at and try to improve everything, which is what every GM should be doing by default. But we never really get glimpses or insight into his philosophy on team-building, beyond cliches about character and "a 5'10 player is the same as a 6'5 player" stuff. It makes you wonder; does he have an actual philosophy or just stat sheets?

2. He seems vulnerable to outside pressure, again a sign of him lacking a hard-won philosophy on team success, which he would commit to fully. He tries to appease too many philosophies: a little bit of toughness, a little bit of mentorship, a little bit of grinding, a little bit of speed, a little bit of everything. I still have issues discerning our team identity at key moments; what are we? A good offensive team with a bottom 6 that can't score in the crunch. A good defensive team with mediocre goaltending. A fast team with an ancient fourth line. When I watch Pittsburgh, I see a clear identity: fast, fast, fast. St. Louis: balance, balance, balance. Tampa Bay: a skilled team that can grind with the best of them. Colorado: an offensive dynamo, with offence spread throughout the lineup. Good luck shutting them out in an elimination game. An identity holds a team together through obstacles, while we seem to fall apart in the face of obstacles. An identity comes from a singular vision rather than a Frankenstein collection of different visions.

3. He's too player friendly. Yes, it's good for your players to feel comfortable, but sometimes people need to be made to feel uncomfortable, to help push themselves to the next level. They need to receive a message from someone whose experience commands respect, rather than someone who demands respect with fake eyeglasses. I'd just prefer a lot more distance between our front office and our group of players to be honest.

4. His disregard for the team's future, and disrespect for the next GM of the Leafs. I don't know why, but him trading a potential 2nd rounder in 2025 to get out of the Nick Ritchie mistake bothers me. Of course, people talk about that cost as nothing, but it won't feel like nothing in 2025. It just felt to me like he was dipping into his GM successor's pocket to help him escape a situation of his own doing. Not to mind that we've been hemorrhaging futures for nothing for awhile now, which will come back to bite us eventually, and puts a lot of pressure on prospects like Knies and Niemela.

5. Yes I know that a number of GM's react emotionally in their boxes while watching playoff games, cheering or looking despondent. But Kyle is very emotionally involved, shown in all the GIFs of his playoff reactions. A person who is confident in their process is not so emotionally involved IMO, but rather adopts a more stoic attitude, knowing that they've put together the best team that they can, and accepting that team's fate. Kyle's hyperactive emotions to me betray an uncertainty in his process.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Yep. You tend to get the most efficient value and least risk from high-end players and cheap depth. Pretty much the biggest way GMs get into trouble is when they have cap space to spend on middle-tier UFAs.

The worst contracts in the league are almost always middle/bottom line up guys (nhl capable players) making top 6/top 4 money.
Nothing cripples your cap flexibility more than having Tyler Myers making $6m on the middle pair, or skinner at $9m in the top 6.

pandemic yes, everyone got the same. it's fine, some came out fine, worse, better etc.. Being a worse team is a very subjective statement to make. Do you believe that we would have been worse as in not making the playoffs? we don't have a large spectrum here because we have made the playoffs but can't win a round. the only worse is not making the playoffs in the current state.

being smart with what we had in terms of depth and contracts and development would have of course required use of some or all of that money but it depends on how it would have been used. post fab 4 contracts Dubas has proven he can extract value down to the thousands of dollars, i am fairly confident he would have done fine with his skillset navigating that. Tavares turns out to be bad timing more than anything.


200% agree

we have had those as well
Moore - under 1 million through 20/21 - second contract 1.875
Engvall - only 1.25 million ended this year
Grundstrom - under 1 million ended this year
Durzi - under 1 million ended this year
Liljegren and Sandin under 1 million both ending this year



it does not mean success - however the situation i believe could have been managed effectively by Dubas due to what he has shown he can do financially/value extraction. it would have been from a completely different place, it feels more so now that he does it out of necessity versus what could have been calculated planning.

the part about overspending prospects on a trade target and wasting cap that way feels convenient. also Ritchie was a free agent signing not a trade acquisition but overpaying in trades becomes less likely with the more players you deal with internally and decide who to pay. I mean the year johnsson and kapanen were coming off their ELCs we could have got some value back for them, whether it was draft picks to continue to replenishment, or at that point use one of them to attach to zaitsev and the other for draft picks.



but i am looking at the middle tier contracts we could have managed internally due to being our own grown players. trading would have been more important than free agent signings (outside of small depth ones) the way the team and future were constructed.

it's interesting how whether you look at no tavares models versus what is actually here in front of us in my opinions the same perceived weaknesses exist. goaltending in both models is suspect, and defence in both models still have question marks. it would have been interesting in the no tavares model to see what the potential trades would have looked like for defencemen.

and i should also add that i am really hoping kids get some minutes this season. like francis said steeves and holmberg and robertson need extended time this year.

I’d rather have JT and two ELC/bunting types than mango kap and Kadri, but that’s just me.

 

[Dreakmur]

I literally said the big difference is drafting.. some of y’all don’t read I stg. I’ll repeat myself verbatim. “The reason Tampa is able to have sustained success is because they are good at taking advantage of guys on ELC’s.”

Tampa is one of the best at replacing their guys internally. The move guys out and have their replacement from the AHL ready.

Toronto needs to start graduating our guys like Steeves, Robertson, Holmberg. Guys who are NHL ready and can contribute instead of signing old useless vets.

We definitely need to start graduating some Marlies, but the problem is we also need to add a certain kind of player to our bottom 6… and the Marlie players don’t match that need.

Dubas can’t possibly think that we should got into next year with an even smaller and even softer bottom 6.