Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[ShaneFalco]

Moving a core player is a shake up and that's just unnecessary and reactionary for the sake of being reactionary.

This is the biggest bunch of bs. Making changes after losing a series or 2 in the first round may be reactionary. Losing 6, and 4 under this GM, is a new record in the NHL for ineptitude. But no let's not make any changes; instead reward failure

 

[ACC1224]

And yet, they are all losers in the end except 1.

If you lose in round 1 against the eventual winners, were you better or worse than the other 14 losers?

That depends on the team and their recent history.
I only care about one team. Losing to the eventual winners shouldn't be seen as a great accomplishment for this team.
Leafs are well past the just happy to make the playoffs stage.

 

[pcruz]

So then this Shanahan--Dubas--Keefe trifecta is permanent thing until success happens.

However if you pay 3 players X $11 mil as among the top in the game, you're essentially buying a playoff spot annually because all you have to do is finish in the top 8 teams in the East and qualify for the playoffs, since no playoff success doesn't force change no matter how many years that takes to achieve.

Big market team spending to the cap ceiling, against rebuilding teams like Buffalo, Ottawa and Detroit who spend near the cap floor and $10-15 mil below the Cap ceiling shouldn't be too hard to beat out to get into the top 8, particularly when the previous GM gifted you a 60 goal scorer and generational franchise #1C, after pulling the team out from the bottom of the league and handing over a +100 point playoff team to start.

Would it qualify as "blowing up the program" by changing the coach and running it back with the same core group players year after year?

If the answer is "YES" the the previous question and making the playoffs alone = 100% job security for GM and Coach then one can conclude to force change and a major shakeup, its going to take the Leafs to either 1) Miss the playoffs or 2). Have Matthews depart in 2 years when his contract ends chasing success elsewhere, forcing the Leafs into a rebuild as this current window of Cup competitiveness closes.

So then we know going forward that as soon into the next regular season the Leafs team qualifies for the playoffs, the bar for management job security threshold has been breached, anything thereafter irrelevant as they will "run it back" the following year continuing to tinker around the edges only, to make sure you don't fail to qualify for the playoffs by making a change in personnel that causes it.

Their contracts need not be renewed.

There is a huge difference in not renewing vs firing.

Is Trotz going to stop Kerfoot dropping the puck to a breakaway?
Is DeBoer going to convince the refs that Kase didn't hit Colton in the face?

Would Trotz or DeBoer prevent Dermott from giving the puck to the Habs player who promptly scored in OT, or would they step in stop the fluttering shot in the next OT?

It hasn't been poor coaching that has led to the losses.
Has it contributed? Possibly.

 

[DuklaNation]

If every team fired their president, GM, and head coach every time they didn't win the Stanley Cup, there'd be 93 high profile NHL jobs up for grabs every year.

Jobs for life! Failure has become acceptable. How many more? 2 more 1st round exits? What if Matthews leaves then? Then fire them? Its too late then. This roster is on the clock and time is running out. Don't bank on him returning, thats a classic management error.

 

[horner]

Management got of the hock by playing TB.
They forgot out team didn't show up in game 4 I think the game we gave up 7 goals.
Our team didn't show enough in game 7 again, we played alright . But alright is not good enough.
Game six third period 4 shots , not nearly enough.
Our 3rd line did nothing offensively.
But they are patting there selves on the back , saying we almost beat TB.
Not alot of changes coming.
Wouldn't be surprised if kerfoot drop pass is back, the he will be gone as a Ufa. Bad asset mngt the same with Holl.

 

[Stephen]

So then this Shanahan--Dubas--Keefe trifecta is permanent thing until success happens.

However if you pay 3 players X $11 mil as among the top in the game, you're essentially buying a playoff spot annually because all you have to do is finish in the top 8 teams in the East and qualify for the playoffs, since no playoff success doesn't force change no matter how many years that takes to achieve.

Big market team spending to the cap ceiling, against rebuilding teams like Buffalo, Ottawa and Detroit who spend near the cap floor and $10-15 mil below the Cap ceiling shouldn't be too hard to beat out to get into the top 8, particularly when the previous GM gifted you a 60 goal scorer and generational franchise #1C, after pulling the team out from the bottom of the league and handing over a +100 point playoff team to start.

Would it qualify as "blowing up the program" by changing the coach and running it back with the same core group players year after year?

If the answer is "YES" the the previous question and making the playoffs alone = 100% job security for GM and Coach then one can conclude to force change and a major shakeup, its going to take the Leafs to either 1) Miss the playoffs or 2). Have Matthews depart in 2 years when his contract ends chasing success elsewhere, forcing the Leafs into a rebuild as this current window of Cup competitiveness closes.

So then we know going forward that as soon into the next regular season the Leafs team qualifies for the playoffs, the bar for management job security threshold has been breached, anything thereafter irrelevant as they will "run it back" the following year continuing to tinker around the edges only, to make sure you don't fail to qualify for the playoffs by making a change in personnel that causes it.

I would actually speculate that there’s no “Man Upstairs ” or “Angry Board” that Shanahan is grovelling to for job security. So having a three headed Shanahan Dubas and Keefe hockey department and organizational stability, hockey department autonomy may be the state of things.

I think blowing it up would be “fun” from an offseason entertainment point of view, and a shakeup could definitely bring drastically different results for better or worse. Better in that they could find their finishing piece. Worse that a mandated offseason could take many steps back. But my takeaway is the organization doesn’t want to purge.

I wonder how much of this is rooted in Shanahan not wanting to repeat the mistakes of Imlach and Ballard destroying the 70’s Sittler Leafs while they were still developing?

 

[67leafs]

Haha interesting. I can't comment on the penalties but I will say that TB is extremely good at locking it down when it's time to do just that. There's a reason these guys won cups and they still have all their key players. They were the one team I wanted to avoid in the East, they're my pick to go to the finals and COL is the only team that I can see beating them.

I agree CO and Tampa for the cup…….
I think they may 3 peat!
they have a system that works, they are great at drawing penalties and Hedman plays about 25 mins…..
Stamkso doesn’t seem to do much but his hockey IQ is off the charts……always right spot right time.

kucherov flying around like a bee and they beat them with one of their top 3 players on the sidelines…….ugh

 

[egd27]

Wise decision. You don't change horses in midstream.

Sure you can.

Ftorek-Robinson
Therrian-Blysma
Johnson-Sullivan
Yeo-Berube

There's 4 Cup winners, who knows how many "midstream" coaching changes have led to at least a first round victory.

 

[ToneDog]

This is the biggest bunch of bs. Making changes after losing a series or 2 in the first round may be reactionary. Losing 6, and 4 under this GM, is a new record in the NHL for ineptitude. But no let's not make any changes; instead reward failure

Came across as 2 arrogant assholes probably because of the flack they got after last year's presser. Don't believe a word they say. I can see them moving 88 if they decide changes are needed behind closed doors.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Came across as 2 arrogant assholes probably because of the flack they got after last year's presser. Don't believe a word they say. I can see them moving 88 if they decide changes are needed behind closed doors.

If they do, the posters here who insist on sticking with this core and rolling it back (because doing otherwise is reactionary and stupid), will all of a sudden change their tune and talk about what a great job Dubas did with moving him

 

[al secord]

They can and they will

 

[2 Slick]

It’s also stubborn and egotistical.

One of these years they’ll break through and win a round and we’ll get the ‘see we just needed patience’ garbage thrown at us when in reality they’re just wasting the prime years of the best young core the team has ever had.

A rookie President hiring a Rookie GM hiring a Rookie Coach was always a bad idea. This has been proven to be true every off season.

That’s because that’s how low the bar is set here in Toronto. Winning a first round would feel like a huge victory to upper management when clearly it’s still not enough considering how long this team has had to develop together. This really is one of the most talented hockey teams I think I’ve ever seen that has failed so miserably in the playoffs, it almost seems like a slapstick comedy movie that I’m watching on repeat.

They were status quo even after the debacle against Montreal where they completely mailed it in and no showed in game seven and were eliminated in embarrassing fashion. So I knew damn well that if they didn’t change things after that, there was no way they were going to change things after this season.

It’s all about complacency, they stand to still make tens of millions of dollars, they don’t need to try to draw in new fans like some American markets.

i’m a huge fan of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, think they are two of the better hockey players in the entire NHL. However, they’ve yet to show me that killer instinct in a game seven situation, they’ve yet to piggyback their team on their backs like McDavid did in game seven for Edmonton against LA, I’ve not seen that from them in any elimination game thus far.

I know they’ll have a fantastic regular season next year, but it’s hard to show much enthusiasm and excitement for status quo when you most likely know how the story is going to end next season.

 

[capfit9]

I think it's important to distinguish the fact that Dubas has been at the helm for only 3 seasons and Keefe has had even less time than that while compiling the best winning percentage in franchise history,

Bill Zito hired in 2020
Andrew Brunette coach for less than a season both have gotten past the first round

 

[Nineteen67]

Look around the league and find a good team that isn't in cap hell.

Go for it.

Pittsburgh is about to lose Malkin mostly because of financial reasons.
St. Louis lost Pietrangelo after winning the cup.
Chicago made 3 entirely new teams.
Tampa lost their 3rd line.

The contracts were handled poorly, but that was 3 years ago.
There is no point crying about them now.
The players are very good and have finally produced well for the whole season, including the big games.

This is the wrong time to make drastic changes.

Losing Engvall and Mikheyev means nothing to me. They are peripheral players and replaced easily. That's not a shake-up.
Moving a core player is a shake up and that's just unnecessary and reactionary for the sake of being reactionary.

I don't want management to assuage or appease the masses, I want them to have a plan and stick to it methodically.

Detroit is not in cap hell and they look like their building a team, once again. I can only imaging what Yzerman would do if he was gifted Rielly, and the three ELC Nylander , Marner and Matthews…….

Engvall is the biggest waste of 6’4” 220 lbs of solid muscle in all of sports and Mikheyev has a knack of missing glorious chances, so yes, that’s a key area where they must get better. If contending for a Cup is the goal.

How Do they sign Sandin, Liljegren A goalie and three or four third and fourth line with 7.5 million?

The answer is they have to shed salary and hope it works.

The best case scenario is gettind rid of Mrazek’s cap hit, but how likely is that without a buyout or giving up an asset.
If they move Kerfoot, Muzzin, Holl or anyone else they have to replace them someone as good or better.

A plan would have been better than a yearly crapshoot.

 

[Mess]

Their contracts need not be renewed.

There is a huge difference in not renewing vs firing.

Is Trotz going to stop Kerfoot dropping the puck to a breakaway?
Is DeBoer going to convince the refs that Kase didn't hit Colton in the face?

Would Trotz or DeBoer prevent Dermott from giving the puck to the Habs player who promptly scored in OT, or would they step in stop the fluttering shot in the next OT?

It hasn't been poor coaching that has led to the losses.
Has it contributed? Possibly.

The players on the roster are the GMs job, and if you don't trade Kadri for Kerfoot, then Kerfoot can't make that play to cost the Leafs a game, on the dump pass nor the highsticking penalty that resulted in 2 goals against.

The players actually dressed and on the ice are the responsibility of the Coach, and we have seen where Keefe has inserted Sandin in place of Dermott and the player of his coaching decision make the mistake that cost the game also.

So this year when Justin Holl is inserted into the line-up in place of Liljegren as a coaches decision, and Leafs lose 3 of the last 4 games of the series that is not on the coach but the player?... It was Holl that was running around like a chicken with his head cut off in OT when Brayden Point was standing all alone for the game winner in game #6 and in game #7 Holl takes an interference penalty on a pick play that prevents a Tavares goal on a delayed penalty call.

Maybe a smarter/different coach leaves Holl in the pressbox for the entire series, and then he can't impact game #6 and #7 losses. Maybe a smarter/different GM doesn't protect Holl in the expansion draft, because then as a member of the Kraken he can't take down the Maple Leafs with is bonehead plays.

You have set up a hypothetical situation where management is immune to the results of the team they assemble or coach on the ice, because the finger of blame will always reside with the players on the ice. making changing management to attempt to achieve better TEAM results a non starter in conversation.

 

[rocketman588]

"Proven winners" - not in this league

Not in the OHL either

The only thing they've won is one Calder cup

 

[ShaneFalco]

I think it's important to distinguish the fact that Dubas has been at the helm for only 3 seasons and Keefe has had even less time than that while compiling the best winning percentage in franchise history,

We should create a regular season champs flag
They've also managed to break the record for playoff futility in consecutive years

 

[capfit9]

Well that's the cost to try and compete in the playoffs. Sarficing some futures. It's easy to say it was a waste in hindsight when they don't win the cup.

Smart drafting can also off-set the loss of high picks. For example Niemela has progressed very well to help mitigate a lost 1st round pick.

And looking at 4 drafts, they have had every 2nd rounder and have traded two 1sts. So 6 out of 8 picks were made. I wouldn't call that wasting assets.

did they compete against CLB & MTL come playoff time ? & let’s see if these prospects even make the NHL before giving credit for smart drafting.

 

[rocketman588]

We should create a regular season champs flag
They've also managed to break the record for playoff futility in consecutive years

Not to mention that this is year 4 lol

Idk why people act like year one doesn't count. Wish it didn't because then we wouldn't have JTs boat anchor

 

[janesy12]

Look around the league and find a good team that isn't in cap hell.

Go for it.

Pittsburgh is about to lose Malkin mostly because of financial reasons.
St. Louis lost Pietrangelo after winning the cup.
Chicago made 3 entirely new teams.
Tampa lost their 3rd line.

The contracts were handled poorly, but that was 3 years ago.
There is no point crying about them now.
The players are very good and have finally produced well for the whole season, including the big games.

This is the wrong time to make drastic changes.

Losing Engvall and Mikheyev means nothing to me. They are peripheral players and replaced easily. That's not a shake-up.
Moving a core player is a shake up and that's just unnecessary and reactionary for the sake of being reactionary.

I don't want management to assuage or appease the masses, I want them to have a plan and stick to it methodically.

All of these teams have won a Cup very recently. 3 of the 4 have won multiple. They were forced to make changes after achieving the ultimate success. Leafs have achieved absolutely nothing. Hell the Habs accomplished more last season than the Leafs have in 55 years.

 

[capfit9]

Not in the OHL either

The only thing they've won is one Calder cup

That Marlies team player salaries were nearly double compared to other teams in the AHL. It’s like Leafs operating with a $150M cap and the rest of the league has a $80M cap.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Summary of teams beating the Leafs:
Opposition gets a couple of greasy goals going hard to the net, then effectively clogs up the centre of the ice for the remainder of the game. Leafs have no response

 

[ponder]

The team has gotten better since Keefe has taken over, he has an excellent record so far and had led the team to a historical season. Playoff success doesn’t happen overnight.

Can you name a single core that has had THIS MUCH complete playoff failure, then gone on to have lots of playoff success?

 

[capfit9]

We can agree that Toronto did enough on the ice to eliminate Tampa.

The 5 on 3 in game 6.
The pick in game 7.
The general imbalance in penalties.
The amazing saves by Vasi that kept giving more chances to Tampa.

That same team we took to the honest brink just humiliated the Panthers.
I'll be shocked if the series is longer than 5.
Meaning Toronto has more than sufficient talent to make it at least to the East final this year if not for some really unfortunate events and our power play just evaporating.

It's not always doom and gloom people.

coulda woulda shoulda

 

[rocketman588]

That Marlies team player salaries were nearly double compared to other teams in the AHL. It’s like Leafs operating with a $150M cap and the rest of the league has a $80M cap.

Nah dude it was all "analytics". Dubas has never over paid anyone