Serious Debate - Goaltending

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I have to say, I think we need a Serious Debate on Goaltending.

For those that haven't ventured over, there is a great thread on the NJ Devil's forum by a poster named BleedRed. He watches every goal scored in the NHL every night and then gives an assessment if the goal was "stoppable" or not by the goalie. He's a tough grader, but I've found I agree most of the time. He didn't do last night's games yet.

Goals against review thread

October 15th, 2024 Devils vs Hurricanes: 3 goals against Markstrom, 0 stoppable. 2 goals against Kochetkov, 1 stoppable. Canucks vs Lightning: 3 goals against Silovs, 1 stoppable. 1 goal against Vasilevskiy, 0 stoppable. Golden Knights vs Capitals: 4 goals against Hill, 0 stoppable. 2 goals...

forums.hfboards.com

I thought it would be good to look at our two goalies this year and compare overall metrics (SV%, GAA, W/L) but also included his analysis of the goals they let in. Some may not agree, but he's unbiased, whereas we as Canes fans, have some natural bias. This only looks at goals scored so doesn't show stops a goalie made that probably should have been a goal so I'll try to add some advanced stuff as sample size builds up as well to the total numbers (not by game).

Right now, the sample size is too low to draw any conclusions, but I'll update this as the season progresses and we can see how the numbers stack up.

DISCUSS!

Click to read more...

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Will be updated weekly,

 

[AD Skinner]

Is this saying that none of the goals allowed last night were stoppable?

Edit: nevermind I missed where you said he hadn’t done that game yet

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

 

[Borsig]

I dont know I say PK could have had maybe one of those last night. But at some point you have to have the positioning and luck I guess to just make a save. We got none of that last night, they got all of it.

 

[Justicebork]

Not trying to be snarky but trying to understand - are you not looking for goals allowed over/under expected, which already exists as data that can be mined?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not trying to be snarky but trying to understand - are you not looking for goals allowed over/under expected, which already exists as data that can be mined?

No snark detected. I plan to add that, but IMO, those aren’t very useful in a given game. They become more useful when sample sizes get large enough so when each guy gets 5-10 games, I’ll add it. GAA and Sv% need larger sample sizes as well, but are somewhat useful by game.

Goals allowed over/under are also a calculation. The guy on the devils board adds a human element, kinda like how @tarheelhockey did a +/- analysis for every game a few years back. Going to be interesting how the two line up over time.

 

[HisIceness]

My contribution to the discussion is the following.

Freddie isn't the future, so whatever happens happens. I'm still rooting for him to have a good year because he's part of the team and we're going to need him throughout the season. PK is the current and future, and he's on a good contract, need him to really step up and become the #1, it's time.

I'm excited for the guy drafted last year (Khaslav) but he's years away. If Kotch can develop into starter material, we'd be set for the remainder of his contract. My guess is someone overpays for Freddie this coming offseason, maybe, so getting another stopgap will be needed.

Thanks for attending my TED talk

 

[tomdundo]

They both suck. Kill them.

 

[Stickpucker]

I think BBA has some sort of relationship with this "unbiased third party" and is greasing his palms to push his agenda.

Taken right out of the politicians playbook page 1.

We here on forum 26 are far too enlightened for these shenanigans.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

They both suck. Kill them.

Send Kochetkov… TO THE FRONT!

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

We've seen Kooch play his best when he gets consecutive starts. I'm not sure the rotating goalie system is the way to go. Play Kooch 2-3, hell 4 games in a row depending on schedule.

 

[Svechhammer]

Kooch doesn't do well in spot starts. In order for him to get into a groove he needs to be the workhorse most nights. If we are only planning on splitting his starts 50% with Freddie we are not putting him in the best position for him to win.

It sounds crazy, but he really is a guy who needs to see more playing time to reach his peak.

 

[LakeLivin]

Will be updated weekly,

View attachment 919002

Were none of Kooch's 4 goals against on 10/19 stoppable? If so, should show a "0" in that cell. That's probably why the "Stoppable" cell in his Total row is missing (should be at least 1). You might need to fix your spreadsheet algorithm.

For the record, I'm not checking your work, lol. This kind of stuff just jumps out at me, probably because part of my job for years was ensuring the accuracy of tables in reports we were submitting to the FDA for new drug approvals.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Were none of Kooch's 4 goals against on 10/19 stoppable? If so, should show a "0" in that cell. That's probably why the "Stoppable" cell in his Total row is missing (should be at least 1). You might need to fix your spreadsheet algorithm.

For the record, I'm not checking your work, lol. This kind of stuff just jumps out at me, probably because part of my job for years was ensuring the accuracy of tables in reports we were submitting to the FDA for new drug approvals.

All you had to do is read the first post Where I wrote: “He didn't do last night's games yet.” (At the time I posted the table)

Seriously though, Once he does his analysis, I’ll plug the numbers in and update the totals.

 

[Tryamw]

I have to say, I think we need a Serious Debate on Goaltending.

For those that haven't ventured over, there is a great thread on the NJ Devil's forum by a poster named BleedRed. He watches every goal scored in the NHL every night and then gives an assessment if the goal was "stoppable" or not by the goalie. He's a tough grader, but I've found I agree most of the time. He didn't do last night's games yet.

Goals against review thread

October 15th, 2024 Devils vs Hurricanes: 3 goals against Markstrom, 0 stoppable. 2 goals against Kochetkov, 1 stoppable. Canucks vs Lightning: 3 goals against Silovs, 1 stoppable. 1 goal against Vasilevskiy, 0 stoppable. Golden Knights vs Capitals: 4 goals against Hill, 0 stoppable. 2 goals...

forums.hfboards.com

I thought it would be good to look at our two goalies this year and compare overall metrics (SV%, GAA, W/L) but also included his analysis of the goals they let in. Some may not agree, but he's unbiased, whereas we as Canes fans, have some natural bias. This only looks at goals scored so doesn't show stops a goalie made that probably should have been a goal so I'll try to add some advanced stuff as sample size builds up as well to the total numbers (not by game).

Right now, the sample size is too low to draw any conclusions, but I'll update this as the season progresses and we can see how the numbers stack up.

DISCUSS!

I think we need to play the entire game with 6 skaters it'll solve the goaltending issues.

 

[Tryamw]

They both suck. Kill them.

This dunno gets it