Senators Have Given up A Goal on the 1st or 2nd Shot against 20 Times this Year

[Hale The Villain]

With the Devils just scoring against the Sens on their second shot of the game, the Sens' goalies have now given up a goal against on the first/second shot 20 times in 76 games this year.

Pretty crazy stat that illustrates the struggles in net and on defense that the Sens have had this year.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

 

[Ezekial]

Proof that it's an anomaly season and they will be playoff bound next year.

 

[jbeck5]

Proof that it's an anomaly season and they will be playoff bound next year.

Lol stop.

Haven't we learned.

 

[NVious]

Matt Murray is available this offseason

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Senators have allowed 262 goals on 2233 shots against this season.

Statistically each shot against the Senators this season has an 11.73% chance of going in.

So in theory, each first shot of the game should have an 11.73% chance of going in.

If we make it the first two shots of the game, it becomes a 23.46% of there being a goal on one of the first two shots.

It has happened 20 times in 76 games, which means it has actually occurred 26.32% of the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong I'm kinda fried from work, but does this mean that an event that was expected to occur over 23% of the time occurred over 26% of the time?

 

[Divine]

I heard Korpisalo looked great after having surgery last year?

 

[Kegu]

I heard Korpisalo looked great after having surgery last year?

He did, and his gsaa last year shows that. Unfortunately hes garbage.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Senators have allowed 262 goals on 2233 shots against this season.

Statistically each shot against the Senators this season has an 11.73% chance of going in.

So in theory, each first shot of the game should have an 11.73% chance of going in.

If we make it the first two shots of the game, it becomes a 23.46% of there being a goal on one of the first two shots.

It has happened 20 times in 76 games, which means it has actually occurred 26.32% of the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong I'm kinda fried from work, but does this mean that an event that was expected to occur over 23% of the time occurred over 26% of the time?

 

[MikeyMike01]

Senators have allowed 262 goals on 2233 shots against this season.

Statistically each shot against the Senators this season has an 11.73% chance of going in.

So in theory, each first shot of the game should have an 11.73% chance of going in.

If we make it the first two shots of the game, it becomes a 23.46% of there being a goal on one of the first two shots.

It has happened 20 times in 76 games, which means it has actually occurred 26.32% of the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong I'm kinda fried from work, but does this mean that an event that was expected to occur over 23% of the time occurred over 26% of the time?

You can’t just double the percentage, no.

Imagine a coin with 50% heads. Your odds of getting heads on one of two coin flips is definitely not 2*50=100%.

P(scoring) = .1173
P(not scoring) = 1 - .1173 = .8827
P(not scoring, twice) = .8827 * .8827 = .7792
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - P(not scoring, twice)
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - .7792 = .2208

So, 22.08%

 

[Yorkshire Leaf]

You can’t just double the percentage, no.

Imagine a coin with 50% heads. Your odds of getting heads on one of two coin flips is definitely not 2*50=100%.

P(scoring) = .1173
P(not scoring) = 1 - .1173 = .8827
P(not scoring, twice) = .8827 * .8827 = .7792
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - P(not scoring, twice)
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - .7792 = .2208

So, 22.08%

Correct from a purely statistical point of view, also a 1.37% chance of conceding a goal on each of the first two shots.

There is probably some game theory (way beyond me) to make the answer more complicated.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

You can’t just double the percentage, no.

Imagine a coin with 50% heads. Your odds of getting heads on one of two coin flips is definitely not 2*50=100%.

P(scoring) = .1173
P(not scoring) = 1 - .1173 = .8827
P(not scoring, twice) = .8827 * .8827 = .7792
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - P(not scoring, twice)
P(scoring on one of the first two shots) = 1 - .7792 = .2208

So, 22.08%

Thanks, so an event with a ~22% expected probability actually occurred ~26% of the time.

I wasn't going to get into the Empty Net goals but that would complicate it more

 

[BayStBullies]

Thanks, so an event with a ~22% expected probability actually occurred ~26% of the time.

I wasn't going to get into the Empty Net goals but that would complicate it more

Yeah, don't mention empty net goals. It is a sore subject for Sens fans.

 

[NyQuil]

Yeah, don't mention empty net goals. It is a sore subject for Sens fans.

I don't recall the Senators appealing to the league over it.

 

[Dolemite]

Yeah, don't mention empty net goals. It is a sore subject for Sens fans.

This is why the Sens will never win if they get their pretty pink panties in a bunch over stupid shit like this.

Winners don’t cry over this.

Brady isn’t a winner. Teams know they can get under his skin really easily especially after this.

If he wants to win, he’s got to grow and shut the f*** up.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

This happened with the Oilers a few years back.

The problem was coaching. Players weren't prepared (including the goalie).

Hire Jay Woodcroft.

 

[swiftwin]

Yeah, don't mention empty net goals. It is a sore subject for Sens fans.

A Leafs fan talking about empty net goals? I'm surprised you haven't crosschecked someone in the face and cried to the league about it yet.

 

[swiftwin]

Thanks, so an event with a ~22% expected probability actually occurred ~26% of the time.

That's 18% higher than the Sens average, which is already the worst average in the league. I would say that's statistically significant.

 

[HaNotsri]

If Ottawa could just stop the first shot of the game from happening they would win 100% of their games.

 

[The Management]

I thought Korpisalo was going to work out there.

 

[Albatros]

It's hardly on the goalie alone if the team doesn't enter the ice ready to fight.

 

[ismelofhockey]

I'm just surprised Hischier wasn't crosschecked in the face for depositing the puck in the empty net long after the final horn. I was told this kind of thing was really disrespectful and that any NHL player would react with pure unadulterated rage...

 

[majormajor]

Korpisalo was legit good a year ago. (As was Forsberg)

But his confidence looks totally shot now.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Senators have allowed 262 goals on 2233 shots against this season.

Statistically each shot against the Senators this season has an 11.73% chance of going in.

So in theory, each first shot of the game should have an 11.73% chance of going in.

If we make it the first two shots of the game, it becomes a 23.46% of there being a goal on one of the first two shots.

It has happened 20 times in 76 games, which means it has actually occurred 26.32% of the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong I'm kinda fried from work, but does this mean that an event that was expected to occur over 23% of the time occurred over 26% of the time?

 

[Avs2022]

It will be ok. I'm pretty sure the Avs do the same thing.