Sean Monahan Trade Conditions

[Ace Rimmer]

Look, we've all asked this question at least once, and figured this would be a no-brainer. There are a lot of scenarios at play, but figured better to have a "draft watch" thread that we can reference...

I'll update this post as people point out where I am wrong. I didn't quite go full "Cunningham's Law" but put this out as a starting point.

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Scenario #1: Florida and Calgary both pick outside of the top ten in the 2025 draft.
Outcome: Montreal receives the higher of the first round picks.
Likelihood: Flames look good enough to achieve this, even if they miss the playoffs. No question for Florida IMO.

Scenario #2: Calgary picks in the top ten at the 2025 draft, Florida makes the playoffs.
Outcome: Montreal receives Florida’s first round pick.
Likelihood: Quite possible that the Flames play to expectations and fall to pick in the top ten in 2025. Florida is still pretty good.

Scenario #3: Florida’s 2025 first round pick does not transfer to Calgary because it is lottery protected and other conditions are met.
Likelihood: Will Florida miss the playoffs? Yeah. Didn't think so.

Florida misses playoffs, Calgary picks outside of the top ten at the 2025 draft.
Outcome: Montreal receives Calgary’s 2025 first round pick, and a 4th round pick.

Florida misses playoffs, Calgary pick is #2-10 at the 2025 draft.
Outcome: Montreal receives Calgary’s 2025 first round pick.

If Calgary picks 1st overall, in 2025: yay!
Outcome: Montreal receives a 3rd round pick in 2025 and first round pick in 2026 (if the Flames still have Florida’s pick it’s the higher of the two picks in 2026 neither of which are protected.

Click to read more...

 

[Figgy44]

If scenario 1 is looking more possible, Conroy, embrace the Cinderella run but don't spend draft capital to get rentals. Draft capital for long term players is on though (ie: RFA w/term). Aim to middle finger Montreal with a 20OA ish pick. Fall back to earth next season when we keep our pick.

Scenario 2 I'd consider pursuing it the rumors of certain players wanting out are true. Otherwise, I'm kinda on board with us trying to go all out this season.

 

[Roadrage]

Florida misses playoffs, Calgary pick is #2-10 at the 2025 draft.
Outcome: Montreal receives Calgary’s 2025 first round pick.

Now imagine in this scenario, Calgary got the 2nd overall pick.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Now imagine in this scenario, Calgary got the 2nd overall pick.

No thank you.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Now imagine in this scenario, Calgary got the 2nd overall pick.

To put it in perspective of how bad the bad teams are, Chicago and Nashville aren’t on pace to pass our current point total today for another 14 games. If we win 3 more games in the next 21 games and they just hold pace, they still wouldn’t have caught us at the halfway point of the season.

Going 20-42-0 for the rest of the season barely puts us at the 4th worst team currently if teams keep pace, a top 5 pick is likely already out of the picture which is crazy only 20 games in.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

To put it in perspective of how bad the bad teams are, Chicago and Nashville aren’t on pace to pass our current point total today for another 14 games. If we win 3 more games in the next 21 games and they just hold pace, they still wouldn’t have caught us at the halfway point of the season.

Going 20-42-0 for the rest of the season barely puts us at the 4th worst team currently if teams keep pace, a top 5 pick is likely already out of the picture which is crazy only 20 games in.

At the same time, the bad teams aren't as bad as lastyear
ATM, the bottom 6 teams are within 2 points, and another 4 teams only 3 points back.
13 teams are 4 points apart. When's the lasttime we've that many teams close together at the bottom?

 

[Yepthatsme]

At the same time, the bad teams aren't as bad as lastyear
ATM, the bottom 6 teams are within 2 points, and another 4 teams only 3 points back.
13 teams are 4 points apart. When's the lasttime we've that many teams close together at the bottom?

That more speaks to their being more bad teams this year than the bad teams being much better. Right now we have a higher than usual amount of teams under .500 (12 teams currently), which would make our fall from grace some people expect all the more difficult. San Jose is only on pace for 3 additional wins this year and Chicago’s on pace for a respectable 5 more, although at this point with how early it is that’s the difference in an additional 1-2 wins currently.

To put it in perspective, to get to a bottom 10 points percentage, it would require a 7 game losing streak (admittedly feasible). To get a bottom 5 points percentage, it would take an 11 game losing streak.