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News Article: Score Adjusted Fenwick : Is Your Team for Real? (Kings rule)

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deeshamrock

deeshamrock

Registered User
Jul 25, 2011
8,748
2,291
Philadelphia, PA
This is an article which explains score adjusted Fenwick and how it supports that the Kings are still the best team in the League.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Trav...ick-Standings-Is-Your-Team-For-Real/134/49651

Score-Adjusted Fenwick (shot differential, adjusted for in-game score effects) -- has proven over, and over, and over to be one of the deadliest forecasters of future success/failure
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What the analysis shows:

6) LA Kings? Still the best team in hockey. Chicago's going to be a worthy challenger to the throne this year, as will a couple of other legitimate Western Conference contenders. Playoffs should be fantastic.
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Kings lead in Corsi close aswell by a big chunk

Whats sick is that they have around the 5th worst pdo in the league, yet are still 4 games above .500
 
Not only are we close to Chicago, but we are well ahead of any other team. By those numbers, it's Chicago, us, and the rest of the NHL.

I agree on his other point, Ottawa is going be a big watch come the playoffs if Spezza and Karlsson return. Even at 75% they upgrade that team, and Ottawa is already doing very well without them.
 
i dont know what any of these numbers mean but repeat!!!!
 
this is why the games are actually played. otherwise they could just run a sim of the season in one day and wrap it all up without anyone touching a puck or stepping on the ice.
 
KopitarFAN said:
Every single sort of analysis like this says the Ucks are going to falter, it's just a matter of when.
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Watching the Ducks this season was like watching the Dodgers last season. I'm a big Dodgers fan, but I knew that they were operating on smoke and mirrors early on and it was doubtful they could sustain that level of winning. I'm really not impressed with the Ducks at all. With such a short season, they've piled up enough wins early that they'll likely get in the playoffs without issues. That being said, they don't instill any kind of fear in me. They have some top end talent, but not impressed with the rest of the team depth.
 
Fear the Fin has run score adjusted Fenwick for all teams from the very start of the season. You can see the rank of every team as part of their weekly playoff odds post.

Here is the one from last Sunday: Week 5 Playoff Probabilities.

Fun to read every week. Kings have been #1 for a while, I think, but Vancouver has been close.
 
Generating more scoring chances than your opponents leads to winning more games over the course of a long season, who knew?

Seriously, it is an interesting analysis and the gathering of the information to generate these numbers must not be much fun.
 
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