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Schedule/Standings analysis

Inferno

Inferno

Registered User
Nov 27, 2005
29,682
7,950
Atlanta, GA
Just sitting here thinking about how ridiculously tough the Rangers schedule was up until this point when I decided to take a quick peek at the other contenders in the East. I think we can all agree that the best 4 teams are some combination of the Rangers, the Penguins, the Bruins and the Devils (they went to the SCF and are in first place so far, to say otherwise is just absurd at this point).

Let's look first at the Devils.

Total games played: 13
Games VS Other "Elite teams": 5 (38%)
Games VS the worst 3 teams in the East last season: 4 (31%)
Games VS the worst 3 teams in the East as of right now: 4 (31%)

Next, the Bruins:

Total games played: 11
Games VS Other "Elite teams": 4 (36%)
Games VS the worst 3 teams in the East last season: 3 (27%)
Games VS the worst 3 teams in the East as of right now: 2 (18%)

Next, The Penguins:

Total games played: 13
Games VS Other "Elite teams": 5 (38%)
Games VS the worst 3 teams in the East last season: 3 (23%)
Games VS the worst 3 teams in the East as of right now: 4 (31%)

Finally The Rangers:

Total games played: 12
Games VS Other "Elite teams": 6 (50%)
Games VS the worst 3 teams in the East last season: 2 (17%)
Games VS the worst 3 teams in the East as of right now: 1 (8%)



So, what can we interpret from all this data? Here's a simplistic way of looking at it, the Rangers had to play by far and away the most difficult schedule of any team listed here, and I'd be surprised if there is any team in the NHL who had as tough a first 12 games to their schedule as we did. What did we do during this span? We are currently on a 7-3 stretch, are currently in a playoff position, and are a total of 5 points from the best record in the East with a game in hand against the Devils. Furthermore, during this time span, let's note that the Devils have had the easiest schedule of any of the "big 4" so to speak.

Why did I do this? To point out how important it is to have perspective. To understand that the standings, the scores, the results, everything has context.
Click to read more...
 
So theoretically, our schedule should get easier? Although Boston's may stay the same because they're in a much easier division. It's like free points for them.
 
Love the thread. The math seems to be a bit off, but the point remains.

I will be absurd: I don't think the Devils belong in that category.
 
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My two regrets are giving Boston 2 free points and losing to the Flyers when they were reeling and had a bunch of injuries. Otherwise I'm not disappointed in this season so far.
 
beastly115 said:
So theoretically, our schedule should get easier? Although Boston's may stay the same because they're in a much easier division. It's like free points for them.
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take a look at our next 10 games. If the Rangers don't come away with a MINIMUM of 14 points, it's a complete disaster imho.
 
-31- said:
Rangers, Bruins don't have the full amount of games in the breakdown. Rangers, Penguins, Bruins totals don't add to 100%.
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Just looking at it, could it be because some teams, like the Islanders, are counted twice? (bottom 3 last year, bottom 3 this year?

And there are plenty of middle-of-the-pack teams who I don't think Inferno included.
 
Henriks Broadway Hat said:
Just looking at it, could it be because some teams, like the Islanders, are counted twice? (bottom 3 last year, bottom 3 this year?

And there are plenty of middle-of-the-pack teams who I don't think Inferno included.
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Yeah, I'm dumb. I skimmed and thought that all teams were represented.

My bad.
 
I've been thinking this the whole time. We also had 2 sets of back-to-back games in the first week of the season after hardly any training camp.
 
yeah, the point of this exercise was to show how the other teams have played fewer games against the elite teams, and many more games against the terrible teams.

since it's impossible to tell who the worst team will be at the end of the season, i decided the best way to attack that aspect was to simply show the results vs the worst teams last year and the worst teams this year just to give it some perspective.
The elite teams, to me, is not really up for debate as much. I've yet to see anyone who thinks the Rangers, Bruins and Pens are not the class of the East...and well, despite what some ppl say, I think it's foolish to not include the Devils in this argument.
 
WhipNash27 said:
Rangers will win the Atlantic, don't worry boys and girls.
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Yeah, i personally feel we have a good chance to win the atlantic, but a far worse chance at winning the East.

First and foremost, the Bruins didn't really get worse, they got better by adding back Horton to the equation, i also recall them being just awful to start the year last year which put them behind the 8 ball. Let's just face it, their division is much weaker than ours. It's not bearing out in the points thus far, but it shouldn't...the Rangers, Penguins, Flyers & Devils have to play each other 6 times or whatever it is...that's going to naturally keep the total points earned by all of those teams down significantly.

The next 10 games will be telling, I could easily see the Rangers in first place in the East after these 10. If they arent, they should be close.
 
Eh, it's really too early to try to figure anything like this out based on the standings, IMO. Sample size is a bit too small for my taste.
 
This is a good analysis by my friend Inferno, and I think its a blessing for the Rangers if they take advantage of it. With all the new faces and no camp this team has had to weather the storm through a very tough first 12 games. And here they are with a winning record, 7-3 in their last 10 and games in hand on 7 teams in the conference. And thats while they've been pretty inconsistent, probably playing a full 60 minute game only once or twice (if that).

I always felt that its better to have a tough schedule early on to force your team to respond quickly, buy into the system and keep their level of play up every night. It sets the standard for the year, and I truly think the Rangers feel they havent hit that bar yet.

No game is easy, but they don't play a true elite team until they visit the Penguins in mid-March. Thats 14 games folks. And only one back to back set in there (Isles, Ottawa).

The most important thing for this team, especially over the next 11 (8 home games) - and this is REALLY important - is to not let up, not play down to their opponents levels. Teams like Caps and Jets (they play each of them twice in that span), while certainly not cake-walk games, will test the Rangers killer instinct. Its very important that they raise their game even further now and really take advantage of the "easy" portion of their schedule.
 
Inferno said:
Yeah, i personally feel we have a good chance to win the atlantic, but a far worse chance at winning the East.

First and foremost, the Bruins didn't really get worse, they got better by adding back Horton to the equation, i also recall them being just awful to start the year last year which put them behind the 8 ball. Let's just face it, their division is much weaker than ours. It's not bearing out in the points thus far, but it shouldn't...the Rangers, Penguins, Flyers & Devils have to play each other 6 times or whatever it is...that's going to naturally keep the total points earned by all of those teams down significantly.

The next 10 games will be telling, I could easily see the Rangers in first place in the East after these 10. If they arent, they should be close.
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Let us look at the next 12 - getting to the halfway point of the year. Also as 12 games have elapsed so far as well.

Feb 14 NYI
Feb 17 WAS
Feb 19 MON
Feb 21 @OTT
Feb 23 @MON
Feb 26 WPG
Feb 28 TB
Mar 3 BUF
Mar 5 PHI
Mar 7 @NYI
Mar 8 OTT
Mar 10 @WAS

Considering the teams we meet here-
  • 7-5 record would be barely acceptable (13/14 points)
  • 8-4 record would be good and on track (or 15/16 points)
  • 9-3 record would be very good and raising expectations (or 17/18 points)

Anything above 18 points would be fantastic ("Torts for Adams"). Or anything below 13 points would be unacceptable ("Fire Torts" ;) )
 
BBKers said:
Let us look at the next 12 - getting to the halfway point of the year. Also as 12 games have elapsed so far as well.

Feb 14 NYI
Feb 17 WAS
Feb 19 MON
Feb 21 @OTT
Feb 23 @MON
Feb 26 WPG
Feb 28 TB
Mar 3 BUF
Mar 5 PHI
Mar 7 @NYI
Mar 8 OTT
Mar 10 @WAS

Considering the teams we meet here-
  • 7-5 record would be barely acceptable (13/14 points)
  • 8-4 record would be good and on track (or 15/16 points)
  • 9-3 record would be very good and raising expectations (or 17/18 points)

Anything above 18 points would be fantastic ("Torts for Adams"). Or anything below 13 points would be unacceptable ("Fire Torts" ;) )
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We're better than every team on that list, pretty significantly too.
 
SnowblindNYR said:
We're better than every team on that list, pretty significantly too.
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Absolutely. The toughest looking team on that list WAS Ottawa but without Spezza and now Karlsson, we should hopefully be looking to eat up as many points in this as possible.
 
At least 2/3 of our games vs. Ottawa without Karlsson and Spezza is a gift, and we need to take advantage of it.

Not that we couldn't beat them WITH those two in the lineup, but having them out gives us no excuse for a loss in those games.
 
Bob Richards said:
Absolutely. The toughest looking team on that list WAS Ottawa but without Spezza and now Karlsson, we should hopefully be looking to eat up as many points in this as possible.
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Toughest games should be Montreal in Montreal (they may be the best team in that list) and Philly (I think they'll get their **** together).
 
All I can ever think when I see such topics is my conservation "one game at a time, boy".
 
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