Blue Jays Discussion: Save some runs for the other games, guys. (Jays score team record 28 runs in Friday night drubbing of Red Sox. Yes, that says 28. In one game)

[Ale Brew]

I'd honestly do that trade. Castillo's #'s against the AL East this year at a quick glance are very good: 26 IP, 1.38 ERA, 31k's (4 starts, 1 x NYY, Toronto, TB, Boston)

Yeah, sign me up for that deal

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Are we trade match with Miami? They are flailing abit lately and unlikely to make the post season. They seem to lack offense. Any pitching that interests the Jays?

Gurriel, Teo, or Moreno would seem like good fits in Miami, and they have a bunch of young pitching that would help us.

-Pablo Lopez is an obvious target but would cost quite a bit given years of control + production.
-Trevor Rogers could be an interesting buy low candidate.
-My top choice is if we could try for a challenge trade of prospects: Gabby Moreno for Eury Perez. Our top prospect versus their top prospect. Perez is only 19 and dominating in AA already. He's 6'8" and has nasty stuff. It wouldn't necessarily help us right now, but this kid with Manoah and Tiedemann in our rotation as soon as next year would be arguably the best young rotation in baseball.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[phillipmike]

Athletic posted a Luis Castilo article.

The offer from the Jays was Groshans and Yosver Zulueta

That is an easy yes. Castillo is better than Berrios and at the time Martin and SWR had more value than Groshans and Zulueta do now.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Athletic posted a Luis Castilo article.

The offer from the Jays was Groshans and Yosver Zulueta

Yes please, and then we do this...



Soto for Orelvis, Moreno, Pearson, Biggio for those who don't want to open the tweet.

Since we already have the starting pitching from ripping off a Castillo for Groshans+ trade just keep him or flip him for pen help

Springer
Soto
Vladdy
Kirk(C/DH)
Teo(DH/OF)
Bo
Jansen(C)/Gurriel(OF)
Chapman
Espinal

Manoah
Gausman
Castillo
Berrios
Stripling

Best prospects remaining: Tiedemann, Barriera, Toman, Robberse, G.Martinez, Jimenez, Frasso, etc

If only it were that easy

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

With another good game today, Alvarez is rocking a 200 wRC+ for the season.

Absurd.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

What would a Chafin/G.Soto package cost from the Tigers?

 

[TGB]

Any trade for Castillo that doesn't involve Tiedman or Moreno is a good trade. The guy still has a year left, Ryu's money will be available for him, and with the Jays hitting their prime contention window right now he would probably like to stick around to be a part of the run.
As I said before, I wouldn't be surprised to see the farm system get emptied this trade deadline.

Looking back at other depth prospects that didn't quite make the cut, I'm glad to see Palacios is having a good season. I always felt like the kid didn't get a fair chance.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Any trade for Castillo that doesn't involve Tiedman or Moreno is a good trade. The guy still has a year left, Ryu's money will be available for him, and with the Jays hitting their prime contention window right now he would probably like to stick around to be a part of the run.
As I said before, I wouldn't be surprised to see the farm system get emptied this trade deadline.

Looking back at other depth prospects that didn't quite make the cut, I'm glad to see Palacios is having a good season. I always felt like the kid didn't get a fair chance.

Why do you think the farm system is going to be emptied? This is not a one year window.

 

[TGB]

Why do you think the farm system is going to be emptied? This is not a one year window.

That window is entirely covered by a rock solid core. The infield is set with the exception of just one position at third, the rotation has three solid to great starters signed long term, I hate the way the outfield is setup but it is mostly under control for a couple more years, and the bullpen...well, the Jays are pretty good at finding value relievers. For the most part, if the season were to end today, there are few enough holes that they could all be covered by free agent signings, and there is lot of money coming off the books in a few years.

As for improvements the Jays need right now, the only way they could really improve on multiple positions is to trade for players that are elite or better, each of which would be highly costly in their own right. That strategy is unfeasible and would need to be massively impactful at too many positions to make a big enough difference, so their best best is to target significant major additions at their weakest positions, and their best capital in that regard is prospects. Can they afford to do so?

Absolutely. Almost all of the core pieces are young to very young players who will be hitting their contracts before their 30s, windows that overlap with many of the top prospects in the Jays systems, none of which look like slams dunks (Groshans is cool but still no power, Martinez whiffs more than a fan, Horwitz is a 1B and we don't need more of those, etc). The starters are older but by the time they go bad you'll have Tiedman and Berreria ready, and this is buoyed by having Castillo (even better if Pearson finds his groove and they manage to fix Kikuchi). This 3 to 5 year contention window is plenty of time to rebuild the farm system, and there are still a whole bunch of interesting prospects in the Jays system that are too young to attract any interest. And considering how they drafted, it looks like they're planning entirely on high payoff gambles that could potentially restock the system.

So, yes, NOW is the time. Now they can afford to unload. There's only like a couple really important prospects worth keeping and the rest are low enough on the list other teams might miss them. And this draft looks like it will bring in a bunch of intriguing names. So, yeah, I say GO FOR IT.

 

[Bjindaho]

That window is entirely covered by a rock solid core. The infield is set with the exception of just one position at third, the rotation has three solid to great starters signed long term, I hate the way the outfield is setup but it is mostly under control for a couple more years, and the bullpen...well, the Jays are pretty good at finding value relievers. For the most part, if the season were to end today, there are few enough holes that they could all be covered by free agent signings, and there is lot of money coming off the books in a few years.

As for improvements the Jays need right now, the only way they could really improve on multiple positions is to trade for players that are elite or better, each of which would be highly costly in their own right. That strategy is unfeasible and would need to be massively impactful at too many positions to make a big enough difference, so their best best is to target significant major additions at their weakest positions, and their best capital in that regard is prospects. Can they afford to do so?

Absolutely. Almost all of the core pieces are young to very young players who will be hitting their contracts before their 30s, windows that overlap with many of the top prospects in the Jays systems, none of which look like slams dunks (Groshans is cool but still no power, Martinez whiffs more than a fan, Horwitz is a 1B and we don't need more of those, etc). The starters are older but by the time they go bad you'll have Tiedman and Berreria ready, and this is buoyed by having Castillo (even better if Pearson finds his groove and they manage to fix Kikuchi). This 3 to 5 year contention window is plenty of time to rebuild the farm system, and there are still a whole bunch of interesting prospects in the Jays system that are too young to attract any interest. And considering how they drafted, it looks like they're planning entirely on high payoff gambles that could potentially restock the system.

So, yes, NOW is the time. Now they can afford to unload. There's only like a couple really important prospects worth keeping and the rest are low enough on the list other teams might miss them. And this draft looks like it will bring in a bunch of intriguing names. So, yeah, I say GO FOR IT.

I don't think you fully understand what empty the cupboards really means.

The Jays could hypothetically get Soto, a starter and a couple of solid pen arms WITHOUT emptying the cupboards.

Keep in mind that the messages above from Steve Phillips reflect the viewpoints of someone who actually used to be a GM (and who likely knows some of the GMs). It's easy to say that the Yankees can beat a Jays offer, but the Jays have a fairly unique combination of MLB ready, established MLB (but not making much) and prospects that most of the contenders don't really have.

We have a 23 year old all star catcher who could potentially be more valuable as a trade chip than any one piece anyone else can offer.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don't think you fully understand what empty the cupboards really means.

The Jays could hypothetically get Soto, a starter and a couple of solid pen arms WITHOUT emptying the cupboards.

Keep in mind that the messages above from Steve Phillips reflect the viewpoints of someone who actually used to be a GM (and who likely knows some of the GMs). It's easy to say that the Yankees can beat a Jays offer, but the Jays have a fairly unique combination of MLB ready, established MLB (but not making much) and prospects that most of the contenders don't really have.

We have a 23 year old all star catcher who could potentially be more valuable as a trade chip than any one piece anyone else can offer.

Kirk is interesting to me because management might sell high on him and get a big fish in return thinking that his body might not hold up over the long run. They might be more fine with parting with him than a Moreno or Jansen.

 

[Bjindaho]

Kirk is interesting to me because management might sell high on him and get a big fish in return thinking that his body might not hold up over the long run. They might be more fine with parting with him than a Moreno or Jansen.

And, on the flip side, who the heck else might even consider trading a 23 year-old all-star at a premium position who leads all catchers in both fWAR and bWAR (he has been more valuable by both measures this year than Soto)

 

[Scotianhab]

Nats have Ruiz at C so they may prefer Orelvis instead of Moreno in a Soto package. Gurriel, Orelvis, Zulueta, & Biggio for Soto is what I’d do.

 

[Discoverer]

And, on the flip side, who the heck else might even consider trading a 23 year-old all-star at a premium position who leads all catchers in both fWAR and bWAR (he has been more valuable by both measures this year than Soto)

Yeah, I remain of the opinion that Kirk is pretty damn close to untouchable. Sure, you can question how long he'll hold up behind the plate, but even if he had to move to full-time DH today, there's one DH (Alvarez) and two 1B (Freeman and Goldschmidt) with a higher wRC+ this year.

And, of course, he doesn't have to move off catcher right now. He actually looks quite good back there, so I think even a pessimistic view of Kirk would suggest he'll have a couple more years behind the plate.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Yeah, I remain of the opinion that Kirk is pretty damn close to untouchable. Sure, you can question how long he'll hold up behind the plate, but even if he had to move to full-time DH today, there's one DH (Alvarez) and two 1B (Freeman and Goldschmidt) with a higher wRC+ this year.

And, of course, he doesn't have to move off catcher right now. He actually looks quite good back there, so I think even a pessimistic view of Kirk would suggest he'll have a couple more years behind the plate.

I am not even being pessimistic. I am just theorizing what management could be thinking about. We don’t know. I like Kirk, I have no reason to wanting him shipped out.

 

[Discoverer]

I am not even being pessimistic. I am just theorizing what management could be thinking about. We don’t know. I like Kirk, I have no reason to wanting him shipped out.

Oh I didn't mean to suggest you were being pessimistic, just that "Kirk might have to move off catcher soon" is a relatively pessimistic view, so I would be surprised if anyone in a decision-making role with the Jays is particularly interested in moving him.

 

[Bjindaho]

I am not even being pessimistic. I am just theorizing what management could be thinking about. We don’t know. I like Kirk, I have no reason to wanting him shipped out.

I don't want him shipped out.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that they could have Kirk if it was a one for one. Before anyone scoffs, Kirk is currently 6th in catcher defense (min 50 GP).

We isn't a FA until 2027 and he isn't even arb eligible until 2024.

Soto is a guy whose value has fallen off because his defense has fallen off and that's something that isn't likely to improve (I say fallen off in the sense that he might only be a 6 win player instead of a 7 who looked like he could go higher than that). He's makes 17M this year plus BIG raises the next two.

 

[theaub]

If you're in a win-now phase you don't trade the guy who's currently your best player, full stop.

 

[ER89]

If you're in a win-now phase you don't trade the guy who's currently your best player, full stop.

unless he gets the deal done for a guy who will be even better no?

Like obviously youd like to keep kirk but if kirk gets it done for juan itd be tough to say no. (i don't mean 1 for 1 obviously)

 

[MAB1]

If the Jays had to pick between losing Bichette or Kirk in a deal for Soto I wonder who they'd pick. Kirk's currently better but they do have Moreno and Jansen. I wonder how much the package would change either way depending on which of the two that Nats would want.

 

[HockeyThoughts]

unless he gets the deal done for a guy who will be even better no?

Like obviously youd like to keep kirk but if kirk gets it done for juan itd be tough to say no. (i don't mean 1 for 1 obviously)

I still think we say no, for the same reason that Vlad Guerrero and Alek Monoah are off the table. We are in a win-now mode, we need to be adding top-end talent that can help us win now - not removing it from premium position.

And before anyone says otherwise - a flash-in-the-pan, oft-injured Danny Jansen and a raw-Gabriel Moreno is not an adequate replacement for arguably the best catcher in the league.

If they want a more suitable 1 for 1 - Bo Bichette is a fantastic option. 24 years old, years of control and is a star in his own right. It would hurt to lose him but we can shuffle around a few pieces with the addition of Juan Soto to make it work.

 

[Bjindaho]

I still think we say no, for the same reason that Vlad Guerrero and Alek Monoah are off the table. We are in a win-now mode, we need to be adding top-end talent that can help us win now - not removing it from premium position.

And before anyone says otherwise - a flash-in-the-pan, oft-injured Danny Jansen and a raw-Gabriel Moreno is not an adequate replacement for arguably the best catcher in the league.

If they want a more suitable 1 for 1 - Bo Bichette is a fantastic option. 24 years old, years of control and is a star in his own right. It would hurt to lose him but we can shuffle around a few pieces with the addition of Juan Soto to make it work.

For me, it's one for one or no deal.

There are some risks around Kirk, but he's young, cheap, and controllable. At this point, the only way the captain could be available is if the guy coming back is a megastar like a Soto or a Harper.

 

[Scotianhab]

If the Jays had to pick between losing Bichette or Kirk in a deal for Soto I wonder who they'd pick. Kirk's currently better but they do have Moreno and Jansen. I wonder how much the package would change either way depending on which of the two that Nats would want.

They just got Ruiz last year so I’d assume they’d rather trade for Bichette over Kirk.