Prospect Info: Samkow Memorial HFCBJ 2024 Summer Prospect Rankings: #13

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Vote for the best prospect from the above poll (listed alphabetically) and post who you think should be added from the full (remaining) list below. Criteria is that they are under 25 and haven't spent the majority of a season in the NHL.

There are no set guidelines to determine how you vote. Peak potential, likelihood of NHL career, pathway to playing time, expectations based on draft status -- any/all of these can be used at your discretion. There is no right/wrong way to vote.

The list so far:
1. Cayden Lindstrom (C)
2. Denton Mateychuk (LD)
3. David Jiricek (RD)
4. Gavin Brindley (C/RW)
5. Charlie Elick (RD)
6. Jordan Dumais (RW)
7. Jet Greaves (G)
8. Stanislav Svozil (LD)
9. Sergei Ivanov (G)
10. James Malatesta (LW)
11. Luca Del Bel Belluz (C)
12. Evan Gardner (G)

Select your add from the list below:
Luke Ashton (LD)
Ole Julian Bjorgvik-Holm (LD)
Cameron Butler (RW)
Cole Clayton (RD)
James Fisher (RW/MOD)
Tanner Henricks (RD)
Aidan Hreschuk (LD)
Samuel Knazko (LD)
Nolan Lalonde (G)
Nikolai Makarov (LD)
Max McCue (C)
Hunter McKown (C)
Tyler Peddle (C)
Luca Pinelli (C)
Mikael Pyyhtia (LW)
Guillaume Richard (LD)
Martin Rysavy (LW)
Melvin Strahl (G)
Andrew Strathmann (LD)

Added:
Kirill Dolzhenkov (RW)


Add votes (as of CannonFire1):
Pinelli - 6
Fisher - 4
Richard - 3
Makarov - 1
Peddle - 1
Henricks - 1
Strathmann - 1
McCue - 1

Click to read more...

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

Dolzy, add Peddle because it's a fun story and I have no impressions on anybody left.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Serious question. What are the career expectations for guys we are ranking from this point forward? Does floor vs ceiling matter differently in the teens? Where do we stand on the possibility of a long AHL career with callups vs. a guy who we don't feel strongly about but boy what if he broke out? (I don't mean to create false dichotomies. Just I know some posters don't even vote any more because they can't decide or don't feel qualified. For those of us who are voting, what's the thought process at this stage?)

I am of course voting to add James Fisher.

 

[majormajor]

Add Richard.

Where do we stand on the possibility of a long AHL career with callups vs. a guy who we don't feel strongly about but boy what if he broke out?

It's almost always the second one for me. The league is full of players that did not start out as top 5 or top 10 prospects for their teams. Some really good players started out that way. We certainly had Vladdy Gavrikov and Josh Anderson closer to 20th on our lists at one point. David Savard too, I think.

 

[koteka]

Add Henricks

 

[CBJx614]

Dolzy add uh....Makarov

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Keskinen, add Richard.

 

[squashmaple]

Whitelaw, because he was good enough for Michigan to bring him on. Add Pinelli, because he's the only talent on his OHL team.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

whitelaw, add pinelli

lack of pinelli love here is wild – i'm not saying he's gonna be a top line forward but his production in the OHL as a D+1, especially relative to the rest of his team (led them in scoring by 20+ points!) should have him placed a lot higher.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Whitelaw, add Pinelli.

 

[koteka]

whitelaw, add pinelli

lack of pinelli love here is wild – i'm not saying he's gonna be a top line forward but his production in the OHL as a D+1, especially relative to the rest of his team (led them in scoring by 20+ points!) should have him placed a lot higher.

Tanner Henricks is young for his draft class. He is a 6’3” 194 pound right D who just turned 18. He skates well and passes well. Give him 3 years to develop in the NCAAs and I see the potential for a kid that could break out. Pinelli is another of Jarmo’s short guys with loads of talent. He has plenty of guys ahead of him like Brindley and Dumais. Heck, you have Whitelaw ahead of him. Are we going to have 5 really small forwards on this team?

 

[Viqsi]

Whitelaw, because he was good enough for Michigan to bring him on. Add Pinelli, because he's the only talent on his OHL team.

whitelaw, add pinelli

lack of pinelli love here is wild – i'm not saying he's gonna be a top line forward but his production in the OHL as a D+1, especially relative to the rest of his team (led them in scoring by 20+ points!) should have him placed a lot higher.

Whitelaw, add Pinelli.

This. All of this.

 

[Viqsi]

Tanner Henricks is young for his draft class. He is a 6’3” 194 pound right D who just turned 18. He skates well and passes well. Give him 3 years to develop in the NCAAs and I see the potential for a kid that could break out. Pinelli is another of Jarmo’s short guys with loads of talent. He has plenty of guys ahead of him like Brindley and Dumais. Heck, you have Whitelaw ahead of him. Are we going to have 5 really small forwards on this team?

Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert, Kris Russell, Derek Dorsett, Oliver Bjorkstrand.

Compare and contrast with Kiel McLeod, Kyle Wharton, Tom Sestito, Will Weber, Maksim Mayorov, Tomas Kubalik, Dalton Smith, Seth Ambroz, Kerby Rychel, Dillon Heatherington, and Paul Bittner.

This slavish obsession with Size Uber Alles does not a rational argument make.

 

[koteka]

Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert, Kris Russell, Derek Dorsett, Oliver Bjorkstrand.

Compare and contrast with Kiel McLeod, Kyle Wharton, Tom Sestito, Will Weber, Maksim Mayorov, Tomas Kubalik, Dalton Smith, Seth Ambroz, Kerby Rychel, Dillon Heatherington, and Paul Bittner.

This slavish obsession with Size Uber Alles does not a rational argument make.

I could throw out plenty of guys like TJ Tynan or TF-W or Abramov. But give me the 6’3” guy that can skate over the little dude with skill. Especially when we are projecting 5+ years out.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Personally, as someone who is generally clueless, I'd love to hear why people have Whitelaw ahead of Ceulemans. Both played their D+1 for Wisconsin in the NCAA. Ceulemans had 22 points in 34 games, Whitelaw had 17 in 37. Acknowledging that stat-watching is silly, on the surface level, why is Whitelaw more promising than Ceulemans? Is it simply a by-product of Ceulemans not having a good season in the AHL and not showing enough development in the last few years, while Whitelaw has more time* to reach his potential, whatever that is?

That's not even mentioning Keskinen, who I think has impressed more than either of them.

*I.e. less data on Whitelaw -> more uncertainty about his ultimate quality.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Pinelli is another of Jarmo’s short guys with loads of talent. He has plenty of guys ahead of him like Brindley and Dumais. Heck, you have Whitelaw ahead of him. Are we going to have 5 really small forwards on this team?

probably not! but that's not a consideration for a top prospects list.

this exercise isn't about listing guys according to how you would like to see them on the depth chart for the 2028 blue jackets, it is about ranking them by their long-term projection, independent of team variables.

luca pinelli is a lesser prospect than other guys in the system who project to be scoring line forwards (brindley/dumais/whitelaw*)

luca pinelli is a greater prospect than guys in the system who project to be fringe or bottom-of-the-lineup players (dolzhenkov, ceulemans, malatesta, etc)

these are not mutually exclusive statements.

*i don't think there's a significant gap between whitelaw and pinelli, but whitelaw does have more raw skill and is in a better development environment at the moment

 

[EspenK]

Serious question. What are the career expectations for guys we are ranking from this point forward? Does floor vs ceiling matter differently in the teens? Where do we stand on the possibility of a long AHL career with callups vs. a guy who we don't feel strongly about but boy what if he broke out? (I don't mean to create false dichotomies. Just I know some posters don't even vote any more because they can't decide or don't feel qualified. For those of us who are voting, what's the thought process at this stage?)

I am of course voting to add James Fisher.

My opinion is that posters are just tossing stuff on the wall and will be happy if some of it sticks.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

to add to the pinelli discourse, scott wheeler ranked his top 15 blue jackets prospects back in march and had pinelli ranked ninth, ahead of three names that are in this board's top 10 (malatesta, ivanov, greaves)

some of the callouts:

• high-energy (i.e. more of a brindley than a dumais) who plays bigger than his size
• keeps his feet moving + makes quick plays
• wins races, makes plays, elevates his linemates
• has some deception from his game + scoring ability
• hard worker off the ice + leadership traits (captain of his OHL team)

he's the kind of player that this board should be absolutely in love with, rather than completely disregarding because he's a small forward in a pool of other small forwards.

 

[AndBoomGoesTheCannon]

Add Strathmann

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Add Richard

 

[Viqsi]

*i don't think there's a significant gap between whitelaw and pinelli, but whitelaw does have more raw skill and is in a better development environment at the moment

This is in fact why I have Whitelaw and Pinelli back to back on my list, with Whitelaw at #12 and Pinelli at #13.

 

[Viqsi]

Personally, as someone who is generally clueless, I'd love to hear why people have Whitelaw ahead of Ceulemans. Both played their D+1 for Wisconsin in the NCAA. Ceulemans had 22 points in 34 games, Whitelaw had 17 in 37. Acknowledging that stat-watching is silly, on the surface level, why is Whitelaw more promising than Ceulemans? Is it simply a by-product of Ceulemans not having a good season in the AHL and not showing enough development in the last few years, while Whitelaw has more time* to reach his potential, whatever that is?

That's not even mentioning Keskinen, who I think has impressed more than either of them.

*I.e. less data on Whitelaw -> more uncertainty about his ultimate quality.

For me it's the bolded. I know that prospect development isn't linear so you can't make firm conclusions, but it's going to affect my evaluation all the same. I have him in my Honorable Mentions, short of top-20. I'd love to be wrong on that, but we'll see.

 

[Viqsi]

I could throw out plenty of guys like TJ Tynan or TF-W or Abramov. But give me the 6’3” guy that can skate over the little dude with skill. Especially when we are projecting 5+ years out.

I have frankly seen enough of both fail to not really strongly prioritize one over the other.

 

[squashmaple]

Personally, as someone who is generally clueless, I'd love to hear why people have Whitelaw ahead of Ceulemans. Both played their D+1 for Wisconsin in the NCAA. Ceulemans had 22 points in 34 games, Whitelaw had 17 in 37. Acknowledging that stat-watching is silly, on the surface level, why is Whitelaw more promising than Ceulemans? Is it simply a by-product of Ceulemans not having a good season in the AHL and not showing enough development in the last few years, while Whitelaw has more time* to reach his potential, whatever that is?

That's not even mentioning Keskinen, who I think has impressed more than either of them.

*I.e. less data on Whitelaw -> more uncertainty about his ultimate quality.

For me it's the bolded. I know that prospect development isn't linear so you can't make firm conclusions, but it's going to affect my evaluation all the same. I have him in my Honorable Mentions, short of top-20. I'd love to be wrong on that, but we'll see.

For me, I would consider Ceulemans to be stagnated. He was drafted in the first round in 2021 as a big defensive RHD and has done absolutely nothing to raise his stock. No, it's not his fault he ended up at Wisconsin during their messy program transition years, but he also thrilled no one in Cleveland last season, either.

Whitelaw recognized that Wisconsin was not the place to be and has transferred to a significantly better program in Ann Arbor. The fact Michigan sees him as worthy of that transfer is also a point in his favor. If Whitelaw similarly shows no progression by his D+3, then I will also consider him a stagnated prospect on a downward slide in the rankings. For now, I'm perfectly fine with him ranking somewhere between 10-15 in a deep pool, provided his name is above Ceulemans.

(Funny, there's a thread right now on the mains prospect board talking about prospects who have stagnated. The usual hot-take machine poster who's obsessed with Russian prospects is derailing it by claiming that Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli are stagnated, because words no longer have meanings)

We have SO many bodies at this point that it's hard to make judgments on this guy vs that guy, especially considering the challenges of comparing goalies and skaters in the same list (I personally wouldn't have included any of them in this particular exercise, since none of them are what we'd call a Top Prospect like a Wolf/Askarov/Wallstedt type) and also Euros vs OHL vs NCAA vs AHL. There's a pretty clear top eight or so, then a heap of C/D grade guys.

My vote for Whitelaw is pretty much by default today. I'd have Pinelli above any of these guys, but if I have to pick among this set of five, Whitelaw's my choice.

 

[Viqsi]

(Funny, there's a thread right now on the mains prospect board talking about prospects who have stagnated.

I really need to remember to check on that particular subforum more often. I keep forgetting it's there.

The usual hot-take machine poster who's obsessed with Russian prospects is derailing it by claiming that Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli are stagnated, because words no longer have meanings)

...then again, maybe I should continue to leave it alone.