It is doomsday, decade of darkness 2.0. Make no mistake about it.
I disagree.
Draisaitl at $8.5M even for one year is worth the risk, no doubt about that... who gets to have the 2nd best playoff performer of our generation for $8.5M... it's an absolute no brainer.
And Draisaitl at $13M is also a no brainer for the 2nd/3rd best forward in hockey. That's why it's priority #1, PLAN A.
However, if you plan for it to happen and it doesn't work out there are other ways to spend $13M wisely. That's a definite PLAN B, but it can be made to work as long as McD isn't pissed off (which he wouldn't be because there is no way Draisaitl leaves over money... we will offer him a blank cheque... he only leaves if he wants to leave).
In scenario A we sign both McD and Drai.... our window is extended until the early 2030's. BUT... it doesn't really reopen until 2027 since Drai and Bouch take up the cap increase in 2025 and McD takes up the cap increase in 2026. There's nothing left for the deadline AND we still have to resign our RFA's Skinner, Broberg and Holloway (since they are most likely bridged when they come due this summer and next). But all of that doesn't matter... you have the TWO best playoff performers of our generation and your window is the later 6 of the 8 years they sign for. It's all worth it.
HOWEVER
If it doesn't happen, the silver lining is that in Scenario B you have options:
- B1: you can go out next summer and sign a huge fish like Shesterkyn or Rantanen or Marner and likely still keep a million or two in the bank since they'll all be signing for less than Drai. And that million or two becomes $4.5M to $9.0M in purchasing power at the deadline, OR
- B2: you can go out that summer and sign two aging stars or strong depth players for $5M each.... and again, still keep $9M+ in purchasing power for the deadline. Two guys like Crosby, or Marchand, or Pionk, or Konecny, or Verhaegh, or Saros, or Ullmark or Larsson... you get to pick two.
- And the guys potentially available to spend your $9M in TDL cap are also no slouches... but how about Eichel, or Makar (lol), or Kaprizov, or Robertson, or Boone Jenner. Who knows exacly who will be available, but for sure some important players will be and you can game it so you have the cap to make it happen.
Obviously in either of those scenarios your team going into the playoffs is lacking the nuclear power of McDrai, but the depth is superior to anything scenario A can offer in 2025 or 2026 or 2027... it probably takes Scenario A until 2028 to build that depth... and by then McDrai are 32 and 33 years old respectively.
Also, Messier stuck around after Gretz. McDavid has Jackson's ear... I'm not convinced he leaves just because his best makes a career decision.