Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Oilers Biggest Roster Need Is?

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Considering the talent we have up front? Yeah that's not great. Too many forwards with offensive numbers behind noted offensive juggernaut Mattias Janmark.


The Bruins won 4-0. The Devils won 3-0. The Blues won 4-1. The Avs won 3-1. No team in history has won a game 7 of the SCF while only scoring once, and only 6 game 7s all time have ended 1-0.

Still not nearly as bad as our goaltending is the point but like I said you don’t respond to anyone’s points.

 

[Canovin]

Talbot should be making more money than he does, he's one of the most underrated players in the league.

In a 12 seasons, he's had a save percentage below .908 twice only and he's put up good numbers on multiple teams.

He wasn't awful. He was just overpaid at the time

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Because if you give up that 2nd goal, you're not getting it back in a Cup Final game 7. It's over.

If a team gets up 2-0 or 2-1 ... they're winning the Cup. They will play balls to the wall, every fancy pants scorer even will play like a 3rd/4th liner grinder for 20-40 minutes if they have to when they can taste a Cup.

They will trap, trap, trap and their goalie will play hyper alert. Getting that goal back requires a mini-miracle.

No team that has given up the 2nd goal in SCF game 7 has ever come back to even tie I believe in the modern era.

Well then the solution is to score it in the 35 minutes and 11 seconds prior to the 2-1 goal.

 

[McFlash97]

I really like Jiricek at the draft. I've said he was going to be the best player in the draft. Still lots of time for that but the most I would move is a 2nd and one of our lower tier prospects for him and Jeff Skinner if Columbus is interested. Or 2028 1st or something


I agree. I rank him #1 on our

Paul Coffey with Jiricek for half a season would be a sight to behold. I have the utmost trust Coffey would work wonders with a d talent like that.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Still not nearly as bad as our goaltending is the point but like I said you don’t respond to anyone’s points.

Because a lot of the points made around here are "Skinner is bad and he is the only problem the Oilers are facing". A more nuanced take would address that while yes, Skinner is struggling, there are also many forwards not putting up the numbers they're supposed to be along with a lack of young talent to challenge the Derek Ryans of the world who shouldn't even be here and are being cratered on a nightly basis.

We've already learned from years past that simply relying on two players to carry the entire offense is not a recipe for long term success. We need more players pulling their weight.

 

[Soundwave]

Well then the solution is to score it in the 35 minutes and 11 seconds prior to the 2-1 goal.

Well yeah it'd be nice if Bobrovsky would have cooperated and given up a goal on a medium danger shot, but he wasn't gonna on that day.

Skinner did and they have a Cup Champions banner, we get a participation banner.

Those are the degrees of difference that make all the difference in the world.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Is that reddit guy correct? Did Jiricek get moved to Vancouver?


Maybe Nashville got him. They did just move Tomasino

Woudnt be surprised. Vancoivers GM is always busy

 

[K1984]

Because a lot of the points made around here are "Skinner is bad and he is the only problem the Oilers are facing". A more nuanced take would address that while yes, Skinner is struggling, there are also many forwards not putting up the numbers they're supposed to be along with a lack of young talent to challenge the Derek Ryans of the world who shouldn't even be here and are being cratered on a nightly basis.

We've already learned from years past that simply relying on two players to carry the entire offense is not a recipe for long term success. We need more players pulling their weight.

What do you think is more likely?

Career consistent offensive producers like Hyman, RNH, Arvidsson and Skinner re-discover their career long scoring touch and start producing closer to normal (the only two scorers! narrative is ridiculous), or a goalie that has been up and down his entire career and a noted bad and inconsistent playoff performer all of a sudden for the very first time rectifies these issues?

There's your answer.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

The poor starts are tied to goaltending at its root IMO.

Team has to play perfect in front of these shoddy goalies, but you need to be in mid-season/late season form generally to play that well, since the goalies don't give you enough leeway.

Then the goalie shits the bed to start, then the other players are all gripping their sticks too tight which then impacts the offense and then pile on big expectations for the team and the results are some what predictable. Throw in inexperienced coaches who haven't run NHL level training camps in their career and other teams playing 110% against us to start against us because they're trying to make a name for themselves.

You need to have a goalie that will give the team some goddamn leeway at the start of the year.

Until we get a better brand of goalie I wouldn't be surprised if these poor starts continue pretty much every year.

Honestly, I bet that our management is just crossing their fingers and "hoping" skinner improves to league average lol. That is probably huge to them. Set the bar low.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Well yeah it'd be nice if Bobrovsky would have cooperated and given up a goal on a medium danger shot, but he wasn't gonna on that day.

Skinner did and they have a Cup Champions banner, we get a participation banner.

Those are the degrees of difference that it takes.

The Oilers would've had to score 2 goals regardless and had an entire 60 minutes to do so. Scoring 1 goal wasn't enough.

What do you think is more likely?

Career consistent offensive producers like Hyman, RNH, Arvidsson and Skinner re-discover their career long scoring touch and start producing closer to normal (the only two scorers! narrative is ridiculous), or a goalie that has been up and down his entire career and a noted bad and inconsistent playoff performer all of a sudden for the very first time rectifies these issues?

There's your answer.

Well we're 1/4 of the way through the season and those 4 forwards are either looking up at or tied with Corey Perry in goals. The longer the lack of scoring continues the more it becomes the norm. The lack of scoring was talked about a few weeks ago and still more often than not we don't break three goals. RNH and Hyman are on pace for a combined... what, 12 goals?

And before you even say it, no their totals won't be that low by season's end, but we still struggle to score, especially on the PP. And Skinner can't be blamed for our lackluster power play.

 

[Soundwave]

Honestly, I bet that our management is just crossing their fingers and "hoping" skinner improves to league average lol. That is probably huge to them. Set the bar low.

If there ever was a team who's motto should be "We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas" when it comes to goaltending, it would be the Edmonton Oilers.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Is that reddit guy correct? Did Jiricek get moved to Vancouver?


Maybe Nashville got him. They did just move Tomasino

Nope. No trade yet

 

[McDNicks17]

If anything Vejmelka's numbers should sell people on the forecasting power of GSAx. We want goalies with bad surface level stats but great underlying ones because they're cheap to pay (right now) and cheap to acquire (right now). You know what you get when the underlying numbers match the boxcars? Shesterkin and Hellebuyck, who are not available and won't be for years if ever.

However, I don't care what analytics Bowman uses at this point. We know what Stuart Skinner is, the numbers know what Skinner is, the league knows what Skinner is. Roll the dice on whoever else your data people (you have data people, right?) say is worth a shot and just see what happens. Not doing so is choosing to forfeit a run at the Cup.

I'd say that isn't really true. It's pretty much impossible to find a goalie with bad numbers, but good underlying expected goal numbers. The closest you can get is someone like Logan Thompson who has been great, but he gets absolutely shelled every game, so his SV% is a bit lower. Having good underlying numbers directly correlates to good boxcars.

Guys who have matching underlying numbers and boxcars are guys like Varlamov, Ersson, Lankinen and Rittich that are down around .901 SV%.

 

[Soundwave]

The Oilers would've had to score 2 goals regardless and had an entire 60 minutes to do so. Scoring 1 goal wasn't enough.

You're not getting a freebie goal on Bobrovsky in that situation, he's a real deal starter with a real deal ability to elevate his game sky high, the Panthers were not going to give us a AAA look knowing a Cup is waiting for them just 35 minutes away.

Refs aren't going to want to make a call either because who wants to be the ref that changed a game 7.

There's a reason no team has come back from down 2-1 or 2-0 in a Cup Final in the NHL's modern history. It's not because those team's weren't good, it's because 1 goal in the SCF game 7 is like water in the desert.

We basically lost that Cup when Holland's big swing on goaltending after years of waiting was Jack Campbell, which then became Stuart Skinner in net. If they could have gotten that call right and gotten someone better they'd have a 2024 Stanley Cup banner sitting in the arena now, but they didn't and we don't. That's life.

 

[iCanada]

Because if you give up that 2nd goal, you're not getting it back in a Cup Final game 7. It's over.

If a team gets up 2-0 or 2-1 ... they're winning the Cup. They will play balls to the wall, every fancy pants scorer even will play like a 3rd/4th liner grinder for 20-40 minutes if they have to when they can taste a Cup.

They will trap, trap, trap and their goalie will play hyper alert. Getting that goal back requires a mini-miracle.

No team that has given up the 2nd goal in SCF game 7 has ever come back to even tie I believe in the modern era.


I believe the Oilers are kind of a rarity in that they're one of the few teams that actually tied the game after getting down in a game 7 of SCF. The only other case where that has happened in modern history I believe was the 87 Oilers where Philly scored 1st in the 1st period, but they were able to tie 1-1 and then go up 2-1 and that was basically the Cup right there, Philly could not get that goal back.

Yeah, even tying the game the first time in game 7 basically never happens.

Ridiculous comparison. One in a complete fluke, the other is a mid-range goal by a cumulative 69 goal scorer last year regular season & playoffs aided and abetted by poor gap by Kulak; the late forward support by Foegele; and can probably add bad line change by Holloway which reduced Oiler defending numbers on Florida's rush chance. You'd like the stop but there are also compounding team coverage issues that are contributory factors

Reinhart is not an NHL average shooter at mid-range.

Last season Reinhart was a 57 goal scorer; 13 regular season mid-range goals NHL 96 percentile on 21% ninety-four percentile. Playoffs he added another 10 goals; 3 mid-range goals 98 percentile on 15.8% shooting 76 percentile. 69 total goals last year.

Reinhart's an even better mid-range shooter this season with a 6 goal NHL 98 percentile scoring success. His 16 goals has him in the NHL 99 percentile.

Weakens your credibility trying to equate two entirely different random hockey events. There's alot of information needed to overlay in evaluating performance.

Reinhart is absolutely an average NHL shooter from mid range. He scores almost exclusively from within 15 feet.

I literally posted the heat map, he doesn't shoot from there ever. If you sort got just goals - That was the first goal he scored from that location all year.

He's a volume shooter with average sitting percentages from the places where he typically shoots the puck.

 

[K1984]

The Oilers would've had to score 2 goals regardless and had an entire 60 minutes to do so. Scoring 1 goal wasn't enough.


Well we're 1/4 of the way through the season and those 4 forwards are either looking up at or tied with Corey Perry in goals. The longer the lack of scoring continues the more it becomes the norm. The lack of scoring was talked about a few weeks ago and still more often than not we don't break three goals. RNH and Hyman are on pace for a combined... what, 12 goals?

The Oilers have scored 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 8 games. That's enough scoring.

Again, what do you think is more likely? Some or all of these career offensive producers re-find their career long scoring touch, or a goalie that has never at any point in his career demonstrated the ability to step up when it matters or be consistent all of a sudden magically figures it out?

One of these things has a track record of actually happening, the other is a hope and a prayer. It's much, much, much more likely that the Oilers score more goals again than it is a mediocre (at best) goalie all of a sudden does something that he has literally never demonstrated before. Really not that complicated why goaltending would be more of a concern.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Yeah, even tying the game the first time in game 7 basically never happens.



Reinhart is absolutely an average NHL shooter from mid range. He scores almost exclusively from within 15 feet.

I literally posted the heat map, he doesn't shoot from there ever. If you sort got just goals - That was the first goal he scored from that location all year.

View attachment 935525

He's a volume shooter with average sitting percentages from the places where he typically shoots the puck.

View attachment 935526

NHL Edge tells a different story as I've posted. Those are validated results through the NHL's in arena technology. His actual goal scoring results ... actual goal scoring results also tell another story.

It's a dishonest argument which hurts your credibility trying to tie the fluke Fleury wiff with a Game 7 Cup Winning Goal that has several cited contributory factors.

EDIT: Just to add his mid-range shot volume is also 80 percentile+ range across the last three seasons and playoffs. So he not only is well above NHL average shots from mid-range but as I've shown he is consistently among elite in mid-range finishing.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

No offense is "showing up" in game 7 of a Stanley Cup final dude. Pretty much the last 10 of them have been tight as hell 1 goal games, most of them 2-1, that you could easily mistake for a street fight.

Well then maybe it should have showed up in the first 3 games of the series when it scored a combined 4 goals.

 

[McFlash97]

You're not getting a freebie goal on Bobrovsky in that situation, he's a real deal starter with a real deal ability to elevate his game sky high, the Panthers were not going to give us a AAA look knowing a Cup is waiting for them just 35 minutes away.

Refs aren't going to want to make a call either because who wants to be the ref that changed a game 7.

There's a reason no team has come back from down 2-1 or 2-0 in a Cup Final in the NHL's modern history. It's not because those team's weren't good, it's because 1 goal in the SCF game 7 is like water in the desert.

We basically lost that Cup when Holland's big swing on goaltending after years of waiting was Jack Campbell, which then became Stuart Skinner in net. If they could have gotten that call right and gotten someone better they'd have a 2024 Stanley Cup banner sitting in the arena now, but they didn't and we don't. That's life.

So true

Skinner letting in that 2nd goal on a weak wrister from 40 ft out was the nail in the coffin. Should have been a 1-1 game heading into OT.

Put someone like Varlamov in net and the Oilers run through the playoffs 16-5. During the playoffs, Skinner was atrocious in about 70 % of the games. Its a minor miracle we made it to game 7 of the finals. Thanks to 42 points, Bouchard and Hyman going wild.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

You're not getting a freebie goal on Bobrovsky in that situation, he's a real deal starter with a real deal ability to elevate his game sky high, the Panthers were not going to give us a AAA look knowing a Cup is waiting for them just 35 minutes away.

Refs aren't going to want to make a call either because who wants to be the ref that changed a game 7.

There's a reason no team has come back from down 2-1 or 2-0 in a Cup Final in the NHL's modern history. It's not because those team's weren't good, it's because 1 goal in the SCF game 7 is like water in the desert.

We basically lost that Cup when Holland's big swing on goaltending after years of waiting was Jack Campbell, which then became Stuart Skinner in net. If they could have gotten that call right and gotten someone better they'd have a 2024 Stanley Cup banner sitting in the arena now, but they didn't and we don't. That's life.

Why is a freebie the only way to score? Why not a breakaway? We already scored that way once. A rebound, a tip (see Panthers goal #1), a passing play, a blast from the point, etc etc etc. You know, the ways we scored in games 4-6.

The Oilers have scored 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 8 games. That's enough scoring.

Again, what do you think is more likely? Some or all of these career offensive producers re-find their career long scoring touch, or a goalie that has never at any point in his career demonstrated the ability to step up when it matters or be consistent all of a sudden magically figures it out?

One of these things has a track record of actually happening, the other is a hope and a prayer. It's much, much, much more likely that the Oilers score more goals again than it is a mediocre (at best) goalie all of a sudden does something that he has literally never demonstrated before. Really not that complicated why goaltending would be more of a concern.

Okay, but when? That's the question. RNH looks like a dead man walking. Hyman looks nothing like the guy he was last year. Arvidsson and Skinner look like guys that their previous teams walked away from. Stuart Skinner struggled early last year before rounding into form. Was he perfect? Absolutely not, but he was just as much a part of the big winning streak as anyone else. You don't win 16 straight games with crap goaltending.

Part of the reason we lost the Cup last year was because the offense vanished at inopportune times. A combined 2 goals in games 1, 2, and 7 isn't going to cut it. Skinner is who he is. There's no Shesterkin or anyone like that on the way.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Bob Stauffer says he's intrigued by Anaheim and John Gibson. He's talking alot about Cam Fowler as well saying "They're American but guys wanna win"

 

[McDNicks17]

Bob Stauffer says he's intrigued by Anaheim and John Gibson. He's talking alot about Cam Fowler as well saying "They're American but guys wanna win"

Adding a casual $13M in salary seems realistic.

 

[Arpeggio]

Bob Stauffer says he's intrigued by Anaheim and John Gibson. He's talking alot about Cam Fowler as well saying "They're American but guys wanna win".

Gibson would be an absolute disaster.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Gibson would be an absolute disaster.

At full boat, totally, but he's probably ALOT better then most realize. Again, Dallas Eakins coached that team for several years

 

[K1984]

Why is a freebie the only way to score? Why not a breakaway? We already scored that way once. A rebound, a tip (see Panthers goal #1), a passing play, a blast from the point, etc etc etc. You know, the ways we scored in games 4-6.


Okay, but when? That's the question. RNH looks like a dead man walking. Hyman looks nothing like the guy he was last year. Arvidsson and Skinner look like guys that their previous teams walked away from. Stuart Skinner struggled early last year before rounding into form. Was he perfect? Absolutely not, but he was just as much a part of the big winning streak as anyone else. You don't win 16 straight games with crap goaltending.

Part of the reason we lost the Cup last year was because the offense vanished at inopportune times. A combined 2 goals in games 1, 2, and 7 isn't going to cut it. Skinner is who he is. There's no Shesterkin or anyone like that on the way.

Correct, so we need to upgrade on him or find a legitimate 1A/B that isn't Pickard.

Skinner is doing what he has always done. Be fine for periods of time, then implode for periods of time. If you think it's wise to go into the playoffs with the dichotomy then good for you, but winning teams would find a real backup plan or get rid of him all together.

When will the scoring start? I just said the Oilers scored 3 or more goals in 7 of the last 8 games, and that's still with the power play being ass. The goals are coming now and there's plenty of room for more when the PP clicks. There's actually a logical path to seeing more goals coming. That path does not exist in net.