Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Vegas Claim & Somehow Assign Lavoie to Farm... because Oilers.

[Fourier]

The operate consideration is bolded. Their organizational situations were fundamentally different. And there's always contract outliers like Faber but a great example of a team prioritizing its in-house talent and pro-actively locking it up. The contrast with Harley situation is that he accepted a deal that aligns with the majority of his peers, notably Bouchard and Dobson. He was developed well by a strong organization and his path clear in his deployment. Unfortunately the Oilers had two players at risk and reporting suggests both didn't see a clear opportunity path with their team which is chasing a Cup.

The similarity with an analytics driven organization Carolina is that the players involved were at premiums positions, centre and defense, and a viable age with clear developmental upside. The only way to get such players through offer sheeting is to make a reach offer that has to be weighed against cap cost, belief or not that latent potential can be realized, available roster spot, etc. Fact is that the KK offer sheet required a 1st round pick +. Flight risk Broberg and Holloway were gambled at pushing a lesser compensation level.

We're both in hypothetical land. There was a viable choice to act quicker and assertively to determine the signability or not of Broberg and Holloway. They had been trade discussion pieces previously and a value set with Bushnevich and some level of retention (possibly as high as 50%). There was a runway of exclusive negotiation window until July 1. An open market window until August 13 when the market assigned a new value. The old model worked until it didn't work with $5 million more dollars in the system, a player at a coveted position and stage of development, and a second risk option. The key consideration is a player who asked for a trade request.

Again, we land at a different opinion based upon hypotheticals. It's okay and I get the frustration of a repeating argument.

I suspect that with the bolded comments above you are actually arguing my point for me. Both Dobson and Bouchard settled for a lot less than they could have gotten if there were broad threats of offer sheets. Both players and Hartley as well had their values set not by the open market but by the amount of cap space that their teams could afford to give them when they had no contract leverage. I have no doubt that had the Oilers had the space to give Bouchard something like $6M x 4 years they would have done so. But they basically gave him every penny they had left to give after taking care of all the other players first.

You have talked about a salary reset. The Faber contract is exactly the type of deal we see in such a rest not what you saw from Broberg and Holloway. Teams look at guys who they think will be in their absolute core and lock them up as long as they can if they can do it. Harley at $8.5M x 8 would have been very much in line. Montreal signed Guhle at $5.5M for 6 years and he has far less of a resume. Lukas Raymond and Seth Jarvis also got big deals. Matty Beniers got $7.14M despite taking a step back. Byfield got 5 years at $6.25M from the cap squeezed Kings. Again, he probably gets more for longer if the Kings had space to do so. And after that signing they still put the squeeze to Kaliyev. Everyone of these player could have aggressively pursued offer sheets to get more. But my guess is that none of them came close to that option nor did any of their teams worry much about the threat or do anything pro-active to defend against a theoretical one. So why would the Oilers do anything that risks their cap structure for two players neither of whom are really core players in the next two years even if there was a risk of an OS?

 

[Oilhawks]

He is probably the best one on that team.
We extremely overrate Ekholm here in Edmonton too even when he is just an above avg Dman

Of all of the takes on these boards, this is certainly one of them

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I suspect that with the bolded comments above you are actually arguing my point for me. Both Dobson and Bouchard settled for a lot less than they could have gotten if there were broad threats of offer sheets. Both players and Hartley as well had their values set not by the open market but by the amount of cap space that their teams could afford to give them when they had no contract leverage. I have no doubt that had the Oilers had the space to give Bouchard something like $6M x 4 years they would have done so. But they basically gave him every penny they had left to give after taking care of all the other players first.

You have talked about a salary reset. The Faber contract is exactly the type of deal we see in such a rest not what you saw from Broberg and Holloway. Teams look at guys who they think will be in their absolute core and lock them up as long as they can if they can do it. Harley at $8.5M x 8 would have been very much in line. Montreal signed Guhle at $5.5M for 6 years and he has far less of a resume. Lukas Raymond and Seth Jarvis also got big deals. Matty Beniers got $7.14M despite taking a step back. Byfield got 5 years at $6.25M from the cap squeezed Kings. Again, he probably gets more for longer if the Kings had space to do so. And after that signing they still put the squeeze to Kaliyev. Everyone of these player could have aggressively pursued offer sheets to get more. But my guess is that none of them came close to that option nor did any of their teams worry much about the threat or do anything pro-active to defend against a theoretical one. So why would the Oilers do anything that risks their cap structure for two players neither of whom are really core players in the next two years even if there was a risk of an OS?

Bouchard and Dobson were negotiating in a flat cap window. Bouchard is also in optimal conditions to fully leverage his value on one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Discussion is now allegedly beginning with the outlier Dahlin $11 million AAV deal so not a surprise to anyone Bouchard opted to stay within a positive, clear situation where he is lead dog top pair D and PP driver on one producing historic results. Dobson too is optimally placed on a team that's developed him well with clear progressive game. I imagine we might agree all of these negotiations are an ongoing, active process that just doesn't land on a number and signed. The discussion likely ranges about short, medium, long-term commitment options with variable financial amounts. The underlaying message is 'we value you' and we have a roadmap for deployment and financially within our team structure.

The common factor is a clear, defined progressive role within their drafted team. Comfortable with their handling, the team's financial investment now (and quite likely through tabled offers with variable years and financial term). Unfortunately, none of that reflects Broberg and if Holloway and agent are to believed they also expressed doubts about opportunity and future on a stacked veteran team chasing a Cup.

Overwhelmingly, players that are developed well and see a clear growth path and feel there is good faith negotiation including short, medium, long-term tabled offers, there is strong consideration to sign. Unfortunately that's not the Broberg reality.

It's not about scrambling after the fact to shoehorn an unaffordable Broberg or Holloway into a tenuous cap situation. Rather a viable path to control the outcome by early, assertive negotiation and exploring trade options if there is no way to reconcile player value within the Cap budget this year and years beyond. They already had a sense of market value with St. Louis and strong interest in both players. A natural starting place for two development phase players coming off solid performance deep in the playoffs.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Seider 8.5mil----Nurse 9.25mil

 

[CupofOil]

Covered elsewhere and repeatedly.

One benchmark for trade value was Broberg and Holloway for Bushnevich and some level of retention (possibly up to 50%). The trade value goal is a high level system prospect closer to NHL ready than the value of unknown (picks).

I venture that everyone was surprised that McLeod net a recent top 10 pedigree, near NHL ready return. It affirms that we don't know what trade value is and is different pending organization's needs, market pressures to improve, phase of organization, risk tolerance to move future hopes for NHL ready talent. The McLeod signing was first week of August. Had the Oilers even reached that signing date with one of the two players the offer sheet risk is halved.

We're all speculating here whether about prospective trade options, viability of other RFA targets, and falling back to an old model of how RFA's usually happen. The Oilers situation had many high risk factors, a trade request player, cap overage, big cornerstone contracts upcoming.

I think their management has had adequate response when forced by the market to move on from their NHL ready drafted and development talent. Unfortunately 2RD is a big question mark and the 94% PK is down all its RD options from last year. I feel there was a viable different path with all available information and risk factors to move early and assertively on their double indemnity at risk draft developed talent.

It was a question mark last season and one before and before etc. too so that remain unchanged.
I'm not worried about the PK, I think it's more system/forward driven than Ceci and Desharnais driven.

Was there a substantiated rumor that the Blues were willing to trade Buchnevich for Broberg and Holloway?
Even if the Oilers didn't pull the trigger, I'm sure they didn't think that those two would be gone by offersheet merely months later.

Regardless, it does seem like we're going in circles.
FTR, I'm not a fan of losing Broberg in particular long term and I really liked Holloway's skillset and personality but I just can't lay the blame at the feet of management for something that was a very unique circumstance and with them having handled these two RFAs like just about every other team does.
This is indeed a case of "shit happens" so they pivoted with very limited time available and made the best out of a bad situation so I'm fine with the way it was handled and now the new season is upon us and we move on.

 

[Fourier]

Bouchard and Dobson were negotiating in a flat cap window. Bouchard is also in optimal conditions to fully leverage his value on one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Discussion is now allegedly beginning with the outlier Dahlin $11 million AAV deal so not a surprise to anyone Bouchard opted to stay within a positive, clear situation where he is lead dog top pair D and PP driver on one producing historic results. Dobson too is optimally placed on a team that's developed him well with clear progressive game. I imagine we might agree all of these negotiations are an ongoing, active process that just doesn't land on a number and signed. The discussion likely ranges about short, medium, long-term commitment options with variable financial amounts. The underlaying message is 'we value you' and we have a roadmap for deployment and financially within our team structure.

The common factor is a clear, defined progressive role within their drafted team. Comfortable with their handling, the team's financial investment now (and quite likely through tabled offers with variable years and financial term). Unfortunately, none of that reflects Broberg and if Holloway and agent are to believed they also expressed doubts about opportunity and future on a stacked veteran team chasing a Cup.

Overwhelmingly, players that are developed well and see a clear growth path and feel there is good faith negotiation including short, medium, long-term tabled offers, there is strong consideration to sign. Unfortunately that's not the Broberg reality.

It's not about scrambling after the fact to shoehorn an unaffordable Broberg or Holloway into a tenuous cap situation. Rather a viable path to control the outcome by early, assertive negotiation and exploring trade options if there is no way to reconcile player value within the Cap budget this year and years beyond. They already had a sense of market value with St. Louis and strong interest in both players. A natural starting place for two development phase players coming off solid performance deep in the playoffs.

I can argue that the best outcome for the Oilers would have been signing both players to the type of deals that would have been typical of players in their spots. Even when players make noises about wanting to be traded, the vast majority of negotiations turn out in the favour of the team because payers like Holloway and Broberg have only one possible lever to pull and that is if they can get an OS. So the Oilers played this to keep the players at a salary level that worked for the next two years at least. The offers we have heard reported were both reasonable and consistent with this objective.

You have mentioned the reported Buchnevich trade. As evidence that there was more value to be had. But there are several issues I have with that. First off we don't really know what the actual offer was. But let's assume if was the two for Buch 50% retained straight across. On the surface this might seem enticing. But one also has to remember that to make this deal work even with 50% retention, it probably would have meant dealing one of Kulak or Ceci. If it was Ceci that meant VD as the second pairing RHD and if it was Kulak it would have meant going into the playoffs with a bottom pairing of

????? Desharnais

with a #7 being XXXX

Frankly I have no idea who ????? or XXXX would even have been.

If that deal was there instead this off season instead then it would basically come down to one year of Buchnevich vs Skinner, 2nd 2 3rds and Fischer. Is that a clear win? Is it even a win??? I have said this multiple times but once there was even a hint that Broberg and Hollway were looking to get paid St. Louis may well have been the only team that would have given the Oilers as much as they got.

So what does proactivity get you? If it means signing either guy to more than they should that is not a win. If it means making a trade rather than taking a shot at getting both on the cheap I don't really see a win either.

So you know I am not against proactive moves. I was talking about dealing one or both of JP and Yamamoto to avoid having to face possible arbitration with either player. But for me the better option with these two, Holloway and Broberg, was to try and get them signed to a multi-year deal on the cheap. Once that was no longer an option you have to have make the best of it, and while I was not a fan of the Bowman hire it sure looks like they played their limited hand very well.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Seider 8.5mil----Nurse 9.25mil

Yeah doesn't look great. Do you think Seider gets $8.5M if he's a UFA?

Edit: Nurse is overpaid and it's a problem, but we don't have to ignorant of reality.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

It was a question mark last season and one before and before etc. too so that remain unchanged.
I'm not worried about the PK, I think it's more system/forward driven than Ceci and Desharnais driven.

Was there a substantiated rumor that the Blues were willing to trade Buchnevich for Broberg and Holloway?
Even if the Oilers didn't pull the trigger, I'm sure they didn't think that those two would be gone by offersheet merely months later.

Regardless, it does seem like we're going in circles.
FTR, I'm not a fan of losing Broberg in particular long term and I really liked Holloway's skillset and personality but I just can't lay the blame at the feet of management for something that was a very unique circumstance and with them having handled these two RFAs like just about every other team does.
This is indeed a case of "shit happens" so they pivoted with very limited time available and made the best out of a bad situation so I'm fine with the way it was handled and now the new season is upon us and we move on.

Yup, round and round we go.

Here's one quick search engine secondary link that cites Friedman and Saravalli along with a general comment from Rutherford. So there is a qualified reference point to trade value return. Staying with the Blues there's a solid prospect system with quality return options of similar pedigree non-NHL talent. Beyond the Blues, the hockey world watched Broberg and Holloway perform well in deep playoff competition. Like Buffalo and McLeod, it's reasonable to think more than one team would have interest and maybe also even linked in some past trade discussion.

Buchnevich Trade Rumors Hint Offer Sheets to Oilers No Surprise

According to Elliotte Friedman on the latest episode of the 32 Thoughts Podcast, the St. Louis Blues and Edmonton Oilers had talked prior to the offer sheets this week about a potential trade.

www.yardbarker.com

I'd prefer they kept Broberg but not when the market set his price. But I've also posted I would have moved Ceci and installed Kulak at 2RD to have a succession plan at left d with Ekholm. Kulak a short-term fix with prospective move-out to sign a RD. Even under this situation, the Oilers likely had the Ceci deal in their hip pocket with Emberson still a viable 3/2RD option.

While shit indeed happened, I just feel taking a pro-active approach was a viable strategy to assess the player's intent to sign or not within the fixed amount the Oilers would project short-term, medium term. Protect the hard earned pedigree assets and assert team control over the situation. Make hard decisions with McLeod deal a reasonable blueprint to help fill a shallow prospect pool.

 

[timekeep]

Bouchard and Dobson were negotiating in a flat cap window. Bouchard is also in optimal conditions to fully leverage his value on one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Discussion is now allegedly beginning with the outlier Dahlin $11 million AAV deal so not a surprise to anyone Bouchard opted to stay within a positive, clear situation where he is lead dog top pair D and PP driver on one producing historic results. Dobson too is optimally placed on a team that's developed him well with clear progressive game. I imagine we might agree all of these negotiations are an ongoing, active process that just doesn't land on a number and signed. The discussion likely ranges about short, medium, long-term commitment options with variable financial amounts. The underlaying message is 'we value you' and we have a roadmap for deployment and financially within our team structure.

The common factor is a clear, defined progressive role within their drafted team. Comfortable with their handling, the team's financial investment now (and quite likely through tabled offers with variable years and financial term). Unfortunately, none of that reflects Broberg and if Holloway and agent are to believed they also expressed doubts about opportunity and future on a stacked veteran team chasing a Cup.

Overwhelmingly, players that are developed well and see a clear growth path and feel there is good faith negotiation including short, medium, long-term tabled offers, there is strong consideration to sign. Unfortunately that's not the Broberg reality.

It's not about scrambling after the fact to shoehorn an unaffordable Broberg or Holloway into a tenuous cap situation. Rather a viable path to control the outcome by early, assertive negotiation and exploring trade options if there is no way to reconcile player value within the Cap budget this year and years beyond. They already had a sense of market value with St. Louis and strong interest in both players. A natural starting place for two development phase players coming off solid performance deep in the playoffs.

Heard that today as well, wait until 2025 at the least to sign that contract. We need to see him be the best player on a d pairing before he gets anywhere near that money.

 

[Cloned]

Negotiate early and aggressively within your fixed budget evaluation of both players. Explore trade options to understand the available options. Reports were plentiful of a Broberg Holloway Blues connection with a high skill top forward Bushnevich + retention (possibly as high as 50%) as the return. Start there and broaden the trade discussions to understand your options.

Clear Broberg is a flight risk so get clarity quickly on re-signing likelihood or not within your budget versus what market price could be in circumstances beyond your control.

The Blues downside is low risk. Secondary picks and a mid-range prospect when the Oilers bluffed with the Ceci trade. They can walk away from both players after one year with 1/3 buy-outs. Now if one or both hits, they have a cheap acquisition of a top 4 d-man to work with Parayko or Faulk. Holloway my prediction is he is a Calgary Flamer within three years.

The contracts were poison pills for Edmonton that worked. For St. Louis they are reasonable risks with marginal assets given up and cheap walkaway if their pro scout evaluations are wrong on two young players only entering prime years performance range.

My first post after the offer sheets tabled was Broberg gone maybe Holloway retained. I disagree with the passive approach with a player who wanted a trade only months ago.

You can negotiate as aggressively as you want, if the player doesn’t want to sign here you’re SOL.

What incentive would the Blues have to trade Buchnevich when they know they could just OS them and give up lesser assets?

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I can argue that the best outcome for the Oilers would have been signing both players to the type of deals that would have been typical of players in their spots. Even when players make noises about wanting to be traded, the vast majority of negotiations turn out in the favour of the team because payers like Holloway and Broberg have only one possible lever to pull and that is if they can get an OS. So the Oilers played this to keep the players at a salary level that worked for the next two years at least. The offers we have heard reported were both reasonable and consistent with this objective.

You have mentioned the reported Buchnevich trade. As evidence that there was more value to be had. But there are several issues I have with that. First off we don't really know what the actual offer was. But let's assume if was the two for Buch 50% retained straight across. On the surface this might seem enticing. But one also has to remember that to make this deal work even with 50% retention, it probably would have meant dealing one of Kulak or Ceci. If it was Ceci that meant VD as the second pairing RHD and if it was Kulak it would have meant going into the playoffs with a bottom pairing of

????? Desharnais

with a #7 being XXXX

Frankly I have no idea who ???? or YYYY would even have been.

If that deal was there instead this off season instead then it would basically come down to one year of Buchnevich vs Skinner, 2nd 2 3rds and Fischer. Is that a clear win? Is it even a win??? I have said this multiple times but once there was even a hint that Broberg and Hollway were looking to get paid St. Louis may well have been the only team that would have given the Oilers as much as they got.

So what does proactivity get you? If it means signing either guy to more than they should that is not a win. If it means making a trade rather than taking a shot at getting both on the cheap I don't really see a win either.

So you know I am not against proactive moves. I was talking about dealing one or both of JP and Yamamoto to avoid having to face possible arbitration with either player. But for me the better option with these two, Holloway and Broberg, was to try and get them signed to a multi-year deal on the cheap. Once that was no longer an option you have to have make the best of it, and while I was not a fan of the Bowman hire it sure looks like they played their limited hand very well.

And I think the best outcome would have been to actively negotiate early with the players to see if they would sign within the team's budget threshold for them, assuming the Oilers do multi-year budgeting for short, medium and long-term planning.

My Bushnevich reference is only to state a qualified based value point which was reported by two reasonable sources. It reinforces deep interest by a team (some reporting it carried over two trade deadlines) and a clear starting point to mitigate an issue with a player who demanded a trade months earlier. The crux of Broberg's reported issue was opportunity and disconnect about a future on the team that drafted him. Whether believed or not, the same concerns came from Holloway and agent. The money came through the inflationary CBA option enabled after July 1. The offer sheet likely formative only since St. Louis couldn't deliver on the 2nd round pick requirement and no guarantee they could do so.

There was reasonable time to negotiate and assess whether these players would sign within team budget allotment and forecast for them. So make your team budget based offer early and evaluate all options available including trade. Even if you can't sign them and trade option isn't as robust as the known discussion price four month early, you have the default ability to implement the way it was always done mode of waiting out hoping your high risk situation isn't acted upon by the external market. Instead the Oilers gave up that control and choosing passivity led to the market imposing its value on the players.

Get your information early and pro-actively act to manage two important NHL ready assets. It's a viable approach with some qualified insight into trade options partners.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Yeah doesn't look great. Do you think Seider gets $8.5M if he's a UFA?

Edit: Nurse is overpaid and it's a problem, but we don't have to ignorant of reality.

I bet gets more than 8.5mil if he played Ott 35 times last year like Darnell got to do
Also, I'm sure his bonus structure would be higher if the league gave Detroit free money also

 

[Senor Catface]

He is probably the best one on that team.
We extremely overrate Ekholm here in Edmonton too even when he is just an above avg Dman

There isn’t enough laugh emojis in the world

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

You can negotiate as aggressively as you want, if the player doesn’t want to sign here you’re SOL.

What incentive would the Blues have to trade Buchnevich when they know they could just OS them and give up lesser assets?

Negotiate to your budget threshold early and assess. My Buchnevich reference is not a literal post July 1 trade. Rather it reflects the market value of Broberg and Holloway and reinforced there was a hot, qualified prospective trade partner who showed deep interest in both players by some reports going back two seasons and trade deadlines.

Armstrong had strong incentive to trade over offer sheet. Avoid inflationary pricing required by offer sheeting along with no guarantee of success; not having to make a trade to re-acquire their 2nd pick; move prospect talent from a solid system to solve a roster problem at LD. Trade route there's flexibility to carve out Broberg alone without exploiting the double risk factor exposure Edmonton had. Add warm fuzzy good will between organizations with a win, win, win approach instead of win lose that inflationary offer sheets deliver.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Heard that today as well, wait until 2025 at the least to sign that contract. We need to see him be the best player on a d pairing before he gets anywhere near that money.

I don't disagree. Get another year of information on Bouchard. I personally think he's a legitimate elite pairing guy especially with two years of incredible playoff results. The extreme outlier contract comparable will always be there. They showed with Draisaitl a way to create a league leading salary while quite likely shaving off what UFA price point might have been.

At Bouchard's age, his deal will quite likely be about term length and dollar amount with a Matthews-like shorter term or Draisaitl long-term.

 

[soothsayer]

Oilers sign Jasper Weatherby to a PTO. Who...?

Jasper Weatherby, if the coolest guy at the old age home were made into a name.

 

[WaitingForUser]

Hi, I'm Pete "don't have a clue" Eakins

Darnell and others got paid those contracts cuz of Covid relief money the GM's had incentive to spend. And in Darnell's case, he became a comparable to Hamilton and Jones cuz he played the CHL that season

Had very little to do with RFA/UFA

Do some research and keep your race card opinions out of this forum

The revisionist history of the Canadian division is staggering I swear. The top 3 teams in the North division were very close to one another in points that season. The Habs were the only team that was questionable in the top 4 and they went all the way to the finals. It was the pacific that was god awful that year not the North. Look at the disparity between the top and bottom teams in each division and tell me again how bad the North was

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I bet gets more than 8.5mil if he played Ott 35 times last year like Darnell got to do
Also, I'm sure his bonus structure would be higher if the league gave Detroit free money also

As so just nonsense. Ok then.

 

[bobbythebrain]

The revisionist history of the Canadian division is staggering I swear. The top 3 teams in the North division were very close to one another in points that season. The Habs were the only team that was questionable in the top 4 and they went all the way to the finals. It was the pacific that was god awful that year not the North. Look at the disparity between the top and bottom teams in each division and tell me again how bad the North was

NHL players admitted that season was a joke.
Oilers played VAN, MTL and OTT 36 times that season, 3 terrible teams that year.

Nurse stats were also incredibly inflated that year.

This isn't rocket appliances

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

NHL players admitted that season was a joke.
Oilers played VAN, MTL and OTT 36 times that season, 3 terrible teams that year.

Nurse stats were also incredibly inflated that year.

This isn't rocket appliances

Honestly, you should go to Fan day with a sign to that end. Really show them.

 

[WaitingForUser]

NHL players admitted that season was a joke.
Oilers played VAN, MTL and OTT 36 times that season, 3 terrible teams that year.

Nurse stats were also incredibly inflated that year.

This isn't rocket appliances

Do not disagree it was a joke but the North was far from the worst division that year. All divisions played the same team up to 10 times so I don’t understand why the North gets singled out for that. SJ ANH LA we’re just as terrible as Van Mtl and OTT if not worse.

 

[Senor Catface]

Oilers sign Jasper Weatherby to a PTO. Who...?

His pick was originally Oilers property so it only makes sense.

 

[WaitingForUser]

Do not disagree it was a joke but the North was far from the worst division that year. All divisions played the same team up to 10 times so I don’t understand why the North gets singled out for that. SJ ANH LA we’re just as terrible as Van Mtl and OTT if not worse.

Take a look for yourself

 

[MoontoScott]

Sounds today like hockey is coming back to Atlanta. Some more competition for those free agents.

 

[Mcnofool6110]

Oilers sign Jasper Weatherby to a PTO. Who...?