Fourier
Registered User
Even if Ryan regresses, which he may well do, (personally I don't expect he will be a regular for most of the season) it does not change the fact that who plays on the 4th line will have little to do with the success of the team. That's why I gave you the stats form Hamblin. In the role of the #4C he was able to play the opposition to a draw over 41 games so far. He can do this because he plays hard and is smart but mostly because 4th liners tend to play the vast majority of their minutes against guys who are basically replacement level players.For sure the 2nd pair RD is a massive potentially game costing hole. Ryan is not the same Ryan as last year, he clearly lost a step over the past 13-14 months. Until the 4th line can prove to hold its head above water when out with our 2nd or 3rd pairing D I will be holding my breath until the TDL. Might cost us a few points, nothing too worrisome but again, it is a weakness I see, hopefully nothing too bad.
We heard many times on here for example that the Oilers lost to Vegas in the playoffs because of depth. Yet when you look at the numbers it turns out that Vegas' 4th line did no better in that series than the Oilers fourth line. In fact, if you look back at the last 10 years even in the playoffs the 4th line is virtually never a real difference maker in terms of what really matters goals for and against. Vegas' fourth line was on the ice for 1GF and 1GA in that series. For example Keegan Kolesar got praised for running around throwing hits but when he was on the ice The Oilers had 8 scoring chances to 14 against and 2 HDCF to 5 HDCA. In contrast Ryan vs the Knights was on the ice for 2GF and 2GA with 22 SCF vs 19 against and 13 HDCF vs 9 HDCA. Playing against one another the Oilers had 5 SCF vs 1SCA. But neither team scored.
4th lines can deliver energy and they can be big momentum changers. But these examples are actually remarkably rare. When they happen it tends to get noticed, like a faceoff win at just the right time. But like faceoffs, the play of a teams 4th line rarely impacts the actual outcome of a game.