Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Vegas Claim & Somehow Assign Lavoie to Farm... because Oilers.

[Tarus]

It seems to me Stan Bowman is big time plugged into the US National Development Program. We probably won't have many picks next season, or in the seasons to follow, but I would be fine with the Oil spending the majority of picks they do have on players, to be more precise, defensemen, that have been through the American National Development Program or Canadian Junior A defenseman headed to prestiges American college programs. That's where they'll find "diamonds in the rough" with mid to late picks.

I believe the flight risk these players represent, due to rejecting the NHL club that drafted them by playing out their college time, therefore hitting UFA status, may be mitigated by having Bowman as GM. Bowman's ties to US hockey plus the McDrai effect are recruiting factors in our favor. If not the risk is still worth it in my opinion.

These players drop in the rankings because of the fight risk they illustrate and they are usually more raw and take longer to develop... usually team defensive systems take priority over individual skills training in American programs. Sometimes in the case of Canadian Junior A players, being physically smaller than their CHL counterparts is the reason they decide to take the US college route. The Oilers system needs puck transporting defensemen on both sides.

Why exactly would Bowman mitigate the flight risk of college players? It's not like he's going have a relationship with the players, nor would he prevent an Adam Fox caliber prospect who is determined to play for the team of his choice to stick around with the franchise that drafted him just because he has some ties to the US national program. Bowman might not even be GM by the time a 2025 NCAA draft pick is looking for a contract, Katz typically runs out of patience for his managers by the 4 year mark.

Mcdrai effect didn't help much when John Marino was ready to play in the NHL either, and it's not like he couldn't have beat out half the defenseman that were on Oiler's roster the year he forced a trade.

Not that it's really that much of a loophole or anything, Euro players have a similar out clause after 4 years too. American players in the NCAA just seem more inclined to pick their spots, which unfortunately makes it a risky bet for some teams in the league(Oilers/Winnipeg/Calgary etc). Probably has something to do with the fact that American players can choose to avoid the culture shock of moving to a new country, while European players coming over the pond will go through it no matter where they land.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Darnell Nurse really isnt as bad as many of you make him out to be, but that's just my opinion.

Regular season Nurse is better than people give him credit for, playoff Nurse though deserves every bit of criticism he got.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Regular season Nurse is better than people give him credit for, playoff Nurse though deserves every bit of criticism he got.

He does make head scratching plays. My biggest beef with him is constantly screening our goalie / deflecting pucks into our net. Either commit to the block or get the hell out of the way.

 

[Canovin]

Nurse's best asset is transporting the puck. In fact it's a very good one if he does it more often. His nastiness disappeared. He's not an overly strong dude. Doesn't eliminate anyone from the grease. He was a great fighter but he doesn't scare anyone anymore. His awareness is just as bad as Stuart. Doesn't know where he needs to be. He starfishes when he doesn't have to. This is a guy who should be making no more than 6M.

 

[Fourier]

Agree with your post. The big money is in National Revenue (broadcast, sponsorship) and this is the biggest difference in revenue generation between the NHL and three other major professional sports. It's why Bettman stuck to his guns (reputation and otherwise) to keep the NHL in the huge Phoenix market for so long.

The Greater Toronto Area could support a second team but there wouldn't be any growth to build up their priority to increase the league's National Revenue pipeline where the big financial gains exist. I'd love another Canadian team as this league continues to evolve away from the loyal core support it has in our country. But this isn't about the game, it's the pursuit of profit maximization wrapped successfully around an enviable, rare, deep emotional bond with its customers.

Houston seems like a no-brainer. Atlanta with two strikes shouldn't be a consideration but geographically and market size wise it's back again at the front of the line. A revenue breakdown of major North American professional leagues here:

How Sports Teams, Leagues and Owners Make Money

Want to know how sports teams and leagues make money? Here are the revenue streams used to drive profitability in the competitive sporting industry.

www.sportico.com

If the numbers in this report are accurate, then the cap ceiling is way out of whack. At $6.8B, which to me seems very high, the ceiling under the old formula would be between $106M and about $112M.

 

[Canovin]

If the numbers in this report are accurate, then the cap ceiling is way out of whack. At $6.8B, which to me seems very high, the ceiling under the old formula would be between $106M and about $112B.

Might as well make it no salary cap if it going to be $112B

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

So I'm trying to figure out if I finally understand the accrued cap space/LTIR situation we face. Please let me know if I have this all correct.

Without having to put Kane on LTIR, we currently have 946K in cap. If we let that accrue until the deadline (and not use our LTIR), we can take on about 4.3m in AAV salary. If teams retain 50%, that could be 8.6m. If we really paid through the roof and got double retention on everyone, that's 17.2m?

Then, if we wanted to add more, because the cap space has already been accrued, we could LTIR Kane until the playoffs and could add an additional 5.125 in salary?

Obviously not all of that would happen, but if we wanted to go insane at the deadline, we could find a way to bring in 22.3m in salary? Or do I need more sleep? lol

 

[FlameChampion]

He does make head scratching plays. My biggest beef with him is constantly screening our goalie / deflecting pucks into our net. Either commit to the block or get the hell out of the way.

I’ve mentioned it before with Nurse but my problem with him is all the mistakes he makes on mundane or nothing plays. Chasing guys behind the net or boards when theres no danger. Like you said screening goalies or going down deflecting pucks into the net because he has to go down.

I actually think he does pretty well on skill plays. How often does he get beat on actual 1:1 on plays? I don’t think its that much actually.

He just makes so many poor reads when he has time to do something else.

 

[stewy04]

If they keep watering down the league having 2 of the top 5 players will have so much more value!

 

[Fourier]

Might as well make it no salary cap if it going to be $112B

Fixed.

 

[stewy04]

I wonder with the Rogers buy out of Bell, if Bell is angling for an expansion team in the GTA, with Rogers blessing. Keith Pelley has his finger prints on this. Something is happening.

I hope just so the expansion team wins a cup before the leafs!

 

[Canovin]

I hope just so the expansion team wins a cup before the leafs!

The Leafs have witnessed many expansion teams winning the cup since they last won a cup

 

[Ritchie Valens]

I like Nurse but hate his contract. Is he better than he’s given credit for on this board? Maybe. Is he $9.25 million cap hit, buyout proof contract good? Not even close.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I mean you do know everything.

Can I ask you a question? Are you not tired about crying over the offer sheets? I see block of text after block of text from you over it. Like seriously. we get it. Move on.

There's a very simple solution if you're being triggered. Use the Ignore feature and let your mind be at peace. You've become aggressive and rude.

When people have chosen to ask questions I've responded despite suggesting we all limit discussion to one thread and frankly move on. Most posters who have engaged I have strong respect for and acknowledge we just have different opinions. Others don't add anything starting to personalize things. It's over and well done. There's entrenched opinions with valid considerations. Now put me on Ignore and quit whining.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

If the numbers in this report are accurate, then the cap ceiling is way out of whack. At $6.8B, which to me seems very high, the ceiling under the old formula would be between $106M and about $112M.

That is interesting. Always appreciate your eyes on the numbers. I didn't look at specific numbers but rather the ratio between the leagues and each revenue source area within them.

The NHL is still most beholden to being a traditional gate driven business. Diversifying revenue streams is the Golden Fleece of professional sports. Sportico is a source I reference a fair bit so curious if their data and reporting is not accurate as you suggest.

 

[CupofOil]

Nurse's best asset is transporting the puck. In fact it's a very good one if he does it more often. His nastiness disappeared. He's not an overly strong dude. Doesn't eliminate anyone from the grease. He was a great fighter but he doesn't scare anyone anymore. His awareness is just as bad as Stuart. Doesn't know where he needs to be. He starfishes when he doesn't have to. This is a guy who should be making no more than 6M.

He's regressed a lot if last season is any indication. Nurse was actually on a nice trajectory from 2017 to roughly 2022, did have a pretty good regular season in 2023 but he fell off a cliff last season didn't even have a good regular season outside of that brief Coffey coaching bump mid season.

His physicality has been gone for a while but last season he wasn't even carrying the puck with as much confidence as he used to and just seemed to be going through the motions most times as if something personal was affecting him. If we continue to get the Nurse of last season or, gulp, he continues to regress we're in a shitload of trouble.

I'm rooting for the guy, he takes a lot of shit from the fanbase some justified some not, but it's kind of frightening how bad he looked last season and if that's what he's going to be from here on out. I'm hoping that a lot of his troubles were due to the complete lack of chemistry he had with Ceci.

 

[On The Prowl]

I agree, he's worse. Can't make a pass, zero awareness & shrinks when the games really matter. I'm not interested in pretending hes good because he plays for my team. But that's just my opinion...

He can play better, but he has many things you just cant teach. He carried our defense for awhile, and im not going to write him off because some analytics don't like him.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

It seems to me Stan Bowman is big time plugged into the US National Development Program. We probably won't have many picks next season, or in the seasons to follow, but I would be fine with the Oil spending the majority of picks they do have on players, to be more precise, defensemen, that have been through the American National Development Program or Canadian Junior A defenseman headed to prestiges American college programs. That's where they'll find "diamonds in the rough" with mid to late picks.

I believe the flight risk these players represent, due to rejecting the NHL club that drafted them by playing out their college time, therefore hitting UFA status, may be mitigated by having Bowman as GM. Bowman's ties to US hockey plus the McDrai effect are recruiting factors in our favor. If not the risk is still worth it in my opinion.

These players drop in the rankings because of the fight risk they illustrate and they are usually more raw and take longer to develop... usually team defensive systems take priority over individual skills training in American programs. Sometimes in the case of Canadian Junior A players, being physically smaller than their CHL counterparts is the reason they decide to take the US college route. The Oilers system needs puck transporting defensemen on both sides.

I agree with finding d talent in the American Development Program and within the American hockey market broadly. It's likely the fastest growing talent pool in the world with hidden value still to be found. The flight risk is a viable threat with elites but I'm not sure a Canadian team should stop mining this talent pool especially mid-late round lottery tickets. The broader trend I'm curious about is I see young players being more assertive to leverage the CBA system to choose their destination. And will be interesting to see if the NCAA are forced to accept CHL players into college hockey programs. This could create a new development model.

Bowman was on the US Men's Team Advisory Group which operated as a selection committee for their elite teams (2012 - 2021). He'll definitely have deep insight into this talent pool which is an added-value with his hiring. Not sure though that he will mitigate young talent that don't want to be in Edmonton for any reason.

Will always be a big fan of CHL development with pro style game and schedule, especially for defensemen.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Many of you are just nuts. Nurse isn't going to be worth his $9.25M and has flaws, but you treat him like he's barely an NHL player and that's just not the case, and if you think it's the case you're an idiot.

Not be worth his contract and not being an NHL player are VERY different things.

 

[foshizzle]

How would it make more money in an already tapped market? Those (Hamilton and Quebec) people already watch hockey, are they going to watch 2 hockeys?

Because those two markets will sell out games and buy merchandise. Your comment is just ridiculous- you think Albertans cant support 2 hockey teams? Albertans will watch hockey regardless

 

[Oilslick941611]

Many of you are just nuts. Nurse isn't going to be worth his $9.25M and has flaws, but you treat him like he's barely an NHL player and that's just not the case, and if you think it's the case you're an idiot.

Not be worth his contract and not being an NHL player are VERY different things.

We don't make the playoffs, or the finals if Nurse actually plays the way people describe him.

 

[Oilslick941611]

Because those two markets will sell out games and buy merchandise. Your comment is just ridiculous- you think Albertans cant support 2 hockey teams? Albertans will watch hockey regardless

you are underestimating Hamilton.

my Girlfriend of 14 years is from Hamilton as is her family. They are leaf fans. most the of the GTA and surrounding areas (including Hamilton) are leaf fans. from city centre to city centre they are 68 KM apart and the way the area is populated its basically a giant city and in no comparable to Edmonton and Calgary.

Could a Hamilton team succeed? maybe, the league is harder to get into today than it was i
n the 70's. I don't see many hamiltonians dropping the leafs to cheer for a Hamilton team. Hell Ottawa has almost failed many times over the years and struggled to get a fanbase and take ground from Montreal. Ottawa had to wait 15 years for the kids who were fans to grow up and spend money. Would a Hamilton team have that patience?

 

[Duke74]

Also seeing both Skinner and Arvidsson with Draisaitl on day 1 of camp makes me think of a feeling I had right on July 1 ... that Leon told Jeff Jackson in no uncertain terms that the Oilers needed to find him some real top 6 wingers or else at the exit meetings to end the season.

Not 1, but 2.

Think he had about enough of playing with crap on his wings and probably was extremely frustrated by not being able to contribute in the Finals because his shot was crippled due to injury. If he had some wingers to pass to he could've generated a few goals for the team via passing at least.

The one thing that puzzled me is why Knoblauch never gave Leon extra support, especially when he was suffering with multiple injuries in the later rounds of the playoffs. The whole RNH-McDavid-Hyman line was great, but it completely cratered our depth. Fortunately, we were good enough in the regular season that it didn't matter, but the playoffs are do or die. That one line wasn't good enough to get by Florida so it would have made sense to move RNH down with Draisaitl to at least balance things out. McDavid is good enough to play with whoever, while Leon is the one who needs extra support, especially while injured. I don't want to assume that decision cost us the cup, but it definitely didn't help in the games when our offence died.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

you are underestimating Hamilton.

my Girlfriend of 14 years is from Hamilton as is her family. They are leaf fans. most the of the GTA and surrounding areas (including Hamilton) are leaf fans. from city centre to city centre they are 68 KM apart and the way the area is populated its basically a giant city and in no comparable to Edmonton and Calgary.

Could a Hamilton team succeed? maybe, the league is harder to get into today than it was i
n the 70's. I don't see many hamiltonians dropping the leafs to cheer for a Hamilton team. Hell Ottawa has almost failed many times over the years and struggled to get a fanbase and take ground from Montreal. Ottawa had to wait 15 years for the kids who were fans to grow up and spend money. Would a Hamilton team have that patience?

When Balsillie was trying to get a team to Hamilton there was a season ticket drive. My dad and I were going in on it. It sold out super fast if I recall.

Still, I think the best spot in Ontario would be Waterloo. Neither Toronto or Buffalo would have the right to say no. The Tri-City along with Guelph, London, Brantford and Hamilton would keep that place packed every night. There is money in Waterloo. They'd just have to build a rink.

 

[AUAIOMRN]

So I'm trying to figure out if I finally understand the accrued cap space/LTIR situation we face. Please let me know if I have this all correct.

Without having to put Kane on LTIR, we currently have 946K in cap. If we let that accrue until the deadline (and not use our LTIR), we can take on about 4.3m in AAV salary. If teams retain 50%, that could be 8.6m. If we really paid through the roof and got double retention on everyone, that's 17.2m?

Then, if we wanted to add more, because the cap space has already been accrued, we could LTIR Kane until the playoffs and could add an additional 5.125 in salary?

Obviously not all of that would happen, but if we wanted to go insane at the deadline, we could find a way to bring in 22.3m in salary? Or do I need more sleep? lol

This is how I understand it, though I'm not exactly a cap expert either.