Roster Thread (2023-2024 Season)

[Sabresfansince1980]

I don't think you can bridge Mittelstadt without bringing him to UFA status, unless you're talking a one year deal which IMO is pretty weak and lame and reflective of the Reinhart scenario.

Giving him a fair long-term deal is reasonable and fits in their cap structure just fine. You wait on the rest of the Cs and Ostlund to see where you're at. If somehow cap becomes an issue (which should be a bridge crossed when you get there) then a great option is to bridge Quinn and Peterka for two years, and give them long-term deals when Skinner's contract expires that same summer.

I'm gonna sound like a jerk, but this doesn't sound like a complicated problem to solve. The only hard part is eventually evaluating if Ostlund should displace any of them in a couple years.

 

[TehDoak]

don't think you can bridge Mittelstadt without bringing him to UFA status, unless you're talking a one year deal which IMO is pretty weak and lame and reflective of the Reinhart scenario.

Giving him a fair long-term deal is reasonable and fits in their cap structure just fine. You wait on the rest of the Cs and Ostlund to see where you're at. If somehow cap becomes an issue (which should be a bridge crossed when you get there) then a great option is to bridge Quinn and Peterka for two years, and give them long-term deals when Skinner's contract expires that same summer.

I'm gonna sound like a jerk, but

In the end, he's 25 year old who has only been productive the past two seasons. He's a late bloomer former top 10 draft pick.

Bailey signed a 6 year deal at 6.67% of the cap. He had a career high of 71 points that year, though he was 28 when he signed the contract, so it was all UFA years.

6.67% of 87.5M cap is 5.83M. I'd offer him a 5 year, 29M deal. That eats up most of his peak years (and a few non peak). If he wants more (in term or dollars) you can look for a good hockey trade this summer.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

In the end, he's 25 year old who has only been productive the past two seasons. He's a late bloomer former top 10 draft pick.

Bailey signed a 6 year deal at 6.67% of the cap. He had a career high of 71 points that year, though he was 28 when he signed the contract, so it was all UFA years.

6.67% of 87.5M cap is 5.83M. I'd offer him a 5 year, 29M deal. That eats up most of his peak years (and a few non peak). If he wants more (in term or dollars) you can look for a good hockey trade this summer.

Bailey signing a 6 yr deal in 2018 isn't much of a comp. The cap is about to go up significantly, which makes a long-term deal signed in 2024 that much more sensible. A 6-7 mil AAV deal won't break the cap structure, and will be a fair and tradeable contract. Doesn't matter much whether it's 6, 7, or even 8 yrs.

You re-sign players you should keep, on fair contracts, and trade them later on if it makes sense. It's not hard, unless you want to be a mediocre franchise playing nickel-and-dime games with the guys you should keep (Reinhart, Ullmark).

 

[sabremike]

At this point the Sabres are only enjoyable if viewed as a hockey version of Fawlty Towers where it's just comedy and you enjoy it by laughing at all the stupidity. My first inclination seeing fans proposing doing things that are so self evidently stupid and that blew up in our faces when done previously ("Let's bridge Sam right to UFA! BRILLIANT!!!") is to be angry but at this point I need to adopt the mentality of treating it like comedy and just laughing at it.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

And I get the concern that if Peterka and Quinn and Levi develop they would be in line for payment in two years. They're not there yet and it's reasonable to wait to see if they do get there. Making a deal on a what if, that pushes more futures into a pipeline that is already going to see prospects wither on the vine, seems like continuing to spin their proverbial wheels.

If you trade Tuch for age/contract related reasons after next season and/or buy out skinner after next season, you have a good amount of flexibility.

 

[TehDoak]

Bailey signing a 6 yr deal in 2018 isn't much of a comp. The cap is about to go up significantly, which makes a long-term deal signed in 2024 that much more sensible. A 6-7 mil AAV deal won't break the cap structure, and will be a fair and tradeable contract. Doesn't matter much whether it's 6, 7, or even 8 yrs.

The aging curve says otherwise. Forwards typically peak around 26-28 and then slowly decline until they are out of the league.

An 8 year deal for a 25 year old means you would be paying 3 years of peak production and 5 years of declining production (at best). Sure there are exceptions to that, but that is typical.

I don't think if Mittelstadt hit the open market, he would garner the kind of deal you are thinking. I'd be shocked if he broke 6M to be honest. I certainly don't think he'd hit max UFA term (7 years).

You re-sign players you should keep, on fair contracts, and trade them later on if it makes sense. It's not hard, unless you want to be a mediocre franchise playing nickel-and-dime games with the guys you should keep (Reinhart, Ullmark).

If its a fair contract and the player is playing up to them, they are rarely traded. Players are commodities. Performance to cost affects value. His comps are Bailey and Killorn. Killorn inked an extensions at 6.1% and Bailey at 6.67% of the cap. Sure you can tweak it a little bit to account for the cap rising, but not that much. I'd say 6 x 6 is probably at the high end of what he could get.

 

[Paxon]

In the end, he's 25 year old who has only been productive the past two seasons. He's a late bloomer former top 10 draft pick.

Bailey signed a 6 year deal at 6.67% of the cap. He had a career high of 71 points that year, though he was 28 when he signed the contract, so it was all UFA years.

6.67% of 87.5M cap is 5.83M. I'd offer him a 5 year, 29M deal. That eats up most of his peak years (and a few non peak). If he wants more (in term or dollars) you can look for a good hockey trade this summer.

I haven't read this whole conversation but two seasons of productivity is really all you need to see. The past is the past. We've seen over the last two years what Mitts has developed into, which is all that really matters. You can see that he has learned how to be effective at the things he is effective at. I don't see that changing because it is basic stuff like quickness, strength, and timing that was previously holding him back.

 

[sabremike]

If you trade Tuch for age/contract related reasons after next season and/or buy out skinner after next season, you have a good amount of flexibility.

A Tuch trade would end up both a disaster on ice AND a PR disaster off it. If you were brainstorming ways to make the Sabres an even bigger laughingstock than they already are getting rid of Tuch short of a crazy overpay no rational organization could possibly turn down this would top the list.

 

[TehDoak]

I haven't read this whole conversation but two seasons of productivity is really all you need to see. The past is the past. We've seen over the last two years what Mitts has developed into, which is all that really matters. You can see that he has learned how to be effective at the things he is effective at. I don't see that changing because it is basic stuff like quickness, strength, and timing that was previously holding him back.

That is well and good, but contracts are done by career numbers. Buffalo can't continue to bid against themselves on contracts. I think you make a fair deal based on comps (between 6-6.75% of the cap on a mid term (4-5 year) deal. He can choose to roll the dice on himself in a league that you are a hit away from ending your career or take the guaranteed money.

 

[Chainshot]

If you trade Tuch for age/contract related reasons after next season and/or buy out skinner after next season, you have a good amount of flexibility.

Also possible they just constantly mill ELC's on the wing going forward and they move on from Quinn and/or Peterka.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

A Tuch trade would end up both a disaster on ice AND a PR disaster off it. If you were brainstorming ways to make the Sabres an even bigger laughingstock than they already are getting rid of Tuch short of a crazy overpay no rational organization could possibly turn down this would top the list.

He’s hurt all the time and will be 31 when his next contract kicks in. If he’ll play for the same salary, I’d take him, but that’s not happening.
Paying a premium on his next contract will absolutely sink the team imo. But I guess that they’ll suck regardless, and who even cares anymore anyway.

Sounds like he’s set on Seattle anyway.

Also possible they just constantly mill ELC's on the wing going forward and they move on from Quinn and/or Peterka.

Yes, please do not marry ourselves to any wingers until the centers are established and the team is winning. Any good offers for a winger should be considered, regardless of who they are.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

The aging curve says otherwise. Forwards typically peak around 26-28 and then slowly decline until they are out of the league.

An 8 year deal for a 25 year old means you would be paying 3 years of peak production and 5 years of declining production (at best). Sure there are exceptions to that, but that is typical.

I don't think if Mittelstadt hit the open market, he would garner the kind of deal you are thinking. I'd be shocked if he broke 6M to be honest. I certainly don't think he'd hit max UFA term (7 years).



If its a fair contract and the player is playing up to them, they are rarely traded. Players are commodities. Performance to cost affects value. His comps are Bailey and Killorn. Killorn inked an extensions at 6.1% and Bailey at 6.67% of the cap. Sure you can tweak it a little bit to account for the cap rising, but not that much. I'd say 6 x 6 is probably at the high end of what he could get.

26-28??? Sure, if you're just averaging every NHLer that ever got past his ELC. Players that hit 60-70 pts are more likely to play near peak level beyond that...28-30. You just flat out picked an age range to suit your argument. I don't even have to be right about that though, because the reality is that players who produce in that range or above get long-term contracts past 30. You want to be Mr Grinch for a team that already has a terrible track record in that regard. You're doubling down on terrible.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

That is well and good, but contracts are done by career numbers. Buffalo can't continue to bid against themselves on contracts. I think you make a fair deal based on comps (between 6-6.75% of the cap on a mid term (4-5 year) deal. He can choose to roll the dice on himself in a league that you are a hit away from ending your career or take the guaranteed money.

*John Klingberg likes your tweet*

 

[sabremike]

He’s hurt all the time and will be 31 when his next contract kicks in. If he’ll play for the same salary, I’d take him, but that’s not happening.
Paying a premium on his next contract will absolutely sink the team imo. But I guess that they’ll suck regardless, and who even cares anymore anyway.

Sounds like he’s set on Seattle anyway.

What?????????????

 

[Tatanka]

Also possible they just constantly mill ELC's on the wing going forward and they move on from Quinn and/or Peterka.

Doubt that happens. Those were KAs cherry poppers.

 

[DeletedUser539]

Doubt that happens. Those were KAs cherry poppers.

But that would be a Sabres thing if that happened letting Quinn and jjp go as soon as they need a raise. On the topic of Quinn he looks really good out there especially considering he is coming back from gnarly injury and probably improves as the season goes on, we also look like a better team with him on the ice up and down the roster. I just worry though if we're acquiring to many players with injury concerns as this is his second injury (in two seasons?) Also tuch and savoie, it's a major problem if half of your top 6 has injury issues especially if they are out for months at a time for each injury, along with the team having injury problems in general almost as it amplifies it for the individual with known injury issues, also I know savoie isn't a top 6 player for us yet but that is what we expect out of him as he progesses.

 

[Irie]

That is well and good, but contracts are done by career numbers.

What?

No they aren't.

But I do agree that on the open market, Mitts probably doesn't get 7M this offseason, but he is RFA, so you are buying his UFA years on any deal longer than 1 year, and if he puts up 70-75 points this year, and he does it again next year, I think someone would absolutely give him 7+ on a long-term deal as a UFA in 2025.

If I am Adams, I would probably offer up to 6M x 6 or 7 for Mitts, and if he squawks about Cozens' or Tage's Deals, Adams can point out that Cozens signed his deal in the midst of scoring 31 goals and Tage signed his deal after scoring 38.

Goals have always equated to more $$$ than assists in this league.

 

[Tatanka]

What?

No they aren't.

But I do agree that on the open market, Mitts probably doesn't get 7M this offseason, but he is RFA, so you are buying his UFA years on any deal longer than 1 year, and if he puts up 70-75 points this year, and he does it again next year, I think someone would absolutely give him 7+ on a long-term deal as a UFA in 2025.

If I am Adams, I would probably offer up to 6M x 6 or 7 for Mitts, and if he squawks about Cozens' or Tage's Deals, Adams can point out that Cozens signed his deal in the midst of scoring 31 goals and Tage signed his deal after scoring 38.

Goals have always equated to more $$$ than assists in this league.

And his agent will counter the other 2 are net negative players that don't make their linemates better and take the QO and walk to FA.

 

[Tatanka]

But that would be a Sabres thing if that happened letting Quinn and jjp go as soon as they need a raise. On the topic of Quinn he looks really good out there especially considering he is coming back from gnarly injury and probably improves as the season goes on, we also look like a better team with him on the ice up and down the roster. I just worry though if we're acquiring to many players with injury concerns as this is his second injury (in two seasons?) Also tuch and savoie, it's a major problem if half of your top 6 has injury issues especially if they are out for months at a time for each injury, along with the team having injury problems in general almost as it amplifies it for the individual with known injury issues, also I know savoie isn't a top 6 player for us yet but that is what we expect out of him as he progesses.

It would be the Sabrest of Sabres moves even in the KA era. I think both are your future 1 rw and lw. An achilles is not being injury prone it is unlucky. And Savoie caught a bit of a bad luck in the timing of his injury and Bensons arrival. But of all the shiny toys to move Savoie and Rosen are at the top of my list. Not bad players. Redundant

 

[Irie]

And his agent will counter the other 2 are net negative players that don't make their linemates better and take the QO and walk to FA.

.... so he signs for 2.6M and he blows out a knee or a shoulder in camp, and misses the season and then his UFA offers are 877k in 2025. (I think you maybe meant Arbitration award instead of QO, but he still has a lot to gain by signing and avoiding arbitration).

We can not underestimate the power of financial security for NHL players, especially one's who have had injury plagued seasons in the past. There will be a ton of incentive for Mitts to sign longterm if the money is right this offseason, and I am with @TehDoak on this one, I do not think he has earned 7+ quite yet. Now if he really goes off in the second half of the season, that will be a different story, but if he finishes with 20G and 68P (his current pace), I think 7M is too high. If he had 30G and 68 points, I would agree with that 7 million dollar ballpark figure.

 

[Tatanka]

.... so he signs for 2.6M and he blows out a knee or a shoulder in camp, and misses the season and then his UFA offers are 877k in 2025. (I think you maybe meant Arbitration award instead of QO, but he still has a lot to gain by signing and avoiding arbitration).

We can not underestimate the power of financial security for NHL players, especially one's who have had injury plagued seasons in the past. There will be a ton of incentive for Mitts to sign longterm if the money is right this offseason, and I am with @TehDoak on this one, I do not think he has earned 7+ quite yet. Now if he really goes off in the second half of the season, that will be a different story, but if he finishes with 20G and 68P (his current pace), I think 7M is too high. If he had 30G and 68 points, I would agree with that 7 million dollar ballpark figure.

Again you and your magic crystal ball. Maybe you should have given mgmt call before the Power, Thompson and Cozens deal. Mitts right now is more valuable than any of those and will age better because he knows how to play the position. The others don't and it is a bigger gamble hoping that they magically see the light than it it is to keep the one guy who does in a rising cap world. You make your argument from the construct that you have two centers under contract. You don't you have wingers masquerading as Cs. You don't get rid of the one guy who can play in the hope the other 2 figure it out.

 

[Irie]

Again you and your magic crystal ball. Maybe you should have given mgmt call before the Power, Thompson and Cozens deal. Mitts right now is more valuable than any of those and will age better because he knows how to play the position. The others don't and it is a bigger gamble hoping that they magically see the light than it it is to keep the one guy who does in a rising cap world. You make your argument from the construct that you have two centers under contract. You don't you have wingers masquerading as Cs. You don't get rid of the one guy who can play in the hope the other 2 figure it out.

I have never proposed moving Mitts, and was a strong proponent of signing him last offseason.

I did not like the Cozens' deal, but I understood why it was made with all the other young guys from that draft cashing in and Dylan playing the way he was. I hated the Power deal the day it was announced and still have no idea what Adams was thinking with that overpay. (I like Power a lot, and think he is going to be a great player, but he is young and paying him huge money before Skinner comes off the books was guaranteeing cap trouble the next couple of years - add the fact that he had no where near earned that kind of payday, and you are asking for internal cap trouble as other players will expect to get paid more than they should because the cap structure is now FUBARed.)

All I am doing here is making a justification for resigning Mitts at a fair price. You want to give him 8M? Not sure what you are upset about here.

 

[Tatanka]

I have never proposed moving Mitts, and was a strong proponent of signing him last offseason.

I did not like the Cozens' deal, but I understood why it was made with all the other young guys from that draft cashing in and Dylan playing the way he was. I hated the Power deal the day it was announced and still have no idea what Adams was thinking with that overpay. (I like Power a lot, and think he is going to be a great player, but he is young and paying him huge money before Skinner comes off the books was guaranteeing cap trouble the next couple of years - add the fact that he had no where near earned that kind of payday, and you are asking for internal cap trouble as other players will expect to get paid more than they should because the cap structure is now FUBARed.)

All I am doing here is making a justification for resigning Mitts at a fair price. You want to give him 8M? Not sure what you are upset about here.

I am advocating signing him. Same terms as the existing three. Keep the ones that serve the purpose. Deal one of the others. Nickel and diming at this point is counter productive. None of the three will be unmovable going forward with one possible exception. But signing any of these guys doesn’t mean all or any are part of any core until they show they can win.

 

[Fezzy126]

He's the only one willing to work for the $45K per year that the job pays.

You guys are asking lot of a dead industry, and its workers who barely scrape by. He isn't good compared to what we'd hear on the radio 40 years ago, but the alternative is someone who has never played the game and doesn't care about it at all, or most likely, just nothing, which will probably happen sooner than later.

There will be zero hockey broadcasts on radio before the decade is done since there's no money to be made.

It's sad to see people directing their hate to the low paid media as opposed to the wealthy people actually responsible for this mess.

I suppose for their "star talent", that may be true. But WGR repeatedly cycles through producers with interns and some use it as a stepping stone to bigger opportunities - Fillipponi, Buscaglia, and Collier are the immediate names that come to mind.

Even Sal C, a guy I've been critical of in the past, is an exponentially better beat writer that puts in the time to get better, as well as build his relationships and grow his profile in the national media.

It just gets tiring because listeners tune into their local beat writer hoping to learn what management might be thinking or what he might be hearing from national media sources, instead we get the same old tired and blatantly wrong agenda-based opinions.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I’m not gonna complain about the roster. We have a trip to Buffalo scheduled