I am good with your position on the salary cap and all. And on Eichel.
But Kreider isn’t going anywhere..
Speculation: Roster Building Thread V (2021 Offseason) - Hold them horses, only 45 days left until the draft!
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But Kreider isn’t going anywhere..
OTOH, Dallas made an improbable run last year with their two best players being Klingberg and Heiskenen.
The NHL-as-copycat-league I think ends up hindering teams a lot more than helping them. How many times has a team tried to change itself to fit the flavor of the day only to go too far in that direction or disappoint even further. Toronto just did it.
In the playoffs, you have to have depth and some luck. Great teams have been knocked out so far: Toronto loses Tavares game 1. Florida misses Ekblad the whole series. Carolina played without Trochek and Neiderietter almost the whole series. Colorado dropped like flies last year. OTOH Islanders haven't had Lee. Tampa lost Stamkos for the whole playoffs last year. Vegas missed Paciorretty for most of the first round.
I think making too much of how other teams find success is foolish. Hockey is more or less the same game it's always been. I don't mind if a defenseman is 5'10", can he cover the ice as effectively as a 6'4" defenseman? Can he use his low center of gravity box players out? Jared Spurgeon is a great example of this. More than anything, I want to know if he's willing to compete. How focused can he be, can he dial in and shut out the noise of narratives, matchups, etc. Can he play a simple game, pick his spots, and play into a team game with the other 5 men he'll share the ice with?
Makar and Girard tried the same thing over and over, their frustration rose and their confidence waned as the series progressed. Alternatively, Heiskenen and Klingberg took openings that were there, but played the game much like the Oleksiak and Lundell's of the world. They took hits to make plays, skated to the blueline with the intention to dump it in and jump start a forecheck, they hit back and they took simple and efficient shots from the point that could create chaos and opportunities.
I believe in Fox as that kind of player 100%, and from everything I've seen from Lundkvist in the SHL playoffs and tournaments, he has that to him as well. Not being bigger than the team, not having a chip on their shoulder. Having a calm, steady confidence in themselves and nothing to prove to anybody except their teammates. I feel that matters a lot more than the size or skillset. In the playoffs, most of the time, most everybody has to play the same way anyway.
HatTrick Swayze
Just Be Nice
The only way paying assets for Eichel makes any sense is if the org feels that they 100% can not commit to Zibanejad for whatever reason. If they feel that his body will not age well, or that his 2021 performance is the sign of things to come - and just flat out do not want to sign him.
Even then, Eichel realistically is just adding an almost clone of Zibanejad. Yes, Eichel is better. But I'm hard pressed to see a massive difference in style and impact. To me it would represent a "resetting" of the timeline on a very similar player. He will not add anything overly unique to what the NYR iced last year. But you can make an argument that this is a good idea and I would understand it - I mean he's been a really good player.
The idea of going forward with both Eichel and Zibanejad is never happening, which most of us understand. Though having both for one season is probably pretty appealing for a team that wants to make the POs.
But even in that scenario where they thought it was the right move to make the swap they would be banking on:
1. His health. This surgery is a big deal. Peyton Manning is the obvious reference, though in fairness it is a bit hard to parse out how specifically Manning was impacted by the injury vs natural aging. But most analysis I have seen indicates that the injury severely restricted his range of motion in essentially his entire torso / spine affecting his throwing motion, velocity, and accuracy throwing across his body.
It’s quite possible that this is a career limiting surgery in terms of the impact it has on Eichel’s ability to shoot and make plays across his body as a centerman. It almost goes without saying but his cap bit is based on the player he was...not the player he will be. If he’s “healthy” but limited that is almost a worst case scenario where LTIR can’t be used.
2. That the NYR can win with not one but 2 players with double digit cap hits. The often quoted stat of Montreal being the first and only team to win a PO series with a double digit cap hit is a bit biased due to how many of those there are in the league and how long teams have handed them out. But there is obviously truth to the idea that depth wins in the POs. And making the NYR even MORE top heavy to ultimately add nothing diverse to this roster...just basically (at best) extend Zibanejad’s impact for another few years, seems like a questionable decision to me.
Even then, Eichel realistically is just adding an almost clone of Zibanejad. Yes, Eichel is better. But I'm hard pressed to see a massive difference in style and impact. To me it would represent a "resetting" of the timeline on a very similar player. He will not add anything overly unique to what the NYR iced last year. But you can make an argument that this is a good idea and I would understand it - I mean he's been a really good player.
The idea of going forward with both Eichel and Zibanejad is never happening, which most of us understand. Though having both for one season is probably pretty appealing for a team that wants to make the POs.
But even in that scenario where they thought it was the right move to make the swap they would be banking on:
1. His health. This surgery is a big deal. Peyton Manning is the obvious reference, though in fairness it is a bit hard to parse out how specifically Manning was impacted by the injury vs natural aging. But most analysis I have seen indicates that the injury severely restricted his range of motion in essentially his entire torso / spine affecting his throwing motion, velocity, and accuracy throwing across his body.
It’s quite possible that this is a career limiting surgery in terms of the impact it has on Eichel’s ability to shoot and make plays across his body as a centerman. It almost goes without saying but his cap bit is based on the player he was...not the player he will be. If he’s “healthy” but limited that is almost a worst case scenario where LTIR can’t be used.
2. That the NYR can win with not one but 2 players with double digit cap hits. The often quoted stat of Montreal being the first and only team to win a PO series with a double digit cap hit is a bit biased due to how many of those there are in the league and how long teams have handed them out. But there is obviously truth to the idea that depth wins in the POs. And making the NYR even MORE top heavy to ultimately add nothing diverse to this roster...just basically (at best) extend Zibanejad’s impact for another few years, seems like a questionable decision to me.
Your example is really flawed. Tampa doesn't have the same COL that NYC area has. Tampa also has no state income tax.
That 9.5m deal that kucherov signed is an 11m deal in NY.
You also cant build a team on the hope/expectation that a player takes less money than he should. You have to build in expectations and space otherwise you're forced to trade a prime asset in the middle of your window.
You trade for eichel, you need to sign/know mika's number before hand, and if you can't do both, you need to move mika immediately.
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Toronto has roughly 50% tied up in 4 players. That leaves, on average, $2.6ish M per player to fill out a 20 man roster. That's the problem. It's not easy finding good value players/contracts and or having kids step in.
Hypothetically speaking, IF Eichel was acquired, we'd be looking at around 40-45M in 5 players. It puts us in the same exact position as Toronto. For the reaming 15 players on the roster, we could only spend $2.66M per player. We have a lot of really good young talent. It'd work in the immediate but it becomes bad in a year or two.
I'd rather follow a Las Vegas model where that money is more evenly distributed. In essence, I do not want any other big ticket players/contracts. Barkov would be the one exception but he'd most likely be replacing Mika.
Hypothetically speaking, IF Eichel was acquired, we'd be looking at around 40-45M in 5 players. It puts us in the same exact position as Toronto. For the reaming 15 players on the roster, we could only spend $2.66M per player. We have a lot of really good young talent. It'd work in the immediate but it becomes bad in a year or two.
I'd rather follow a Las Vegas model where that money is more evenly distributed. In essence, I do not want any other big ticket players/contracts. Barkov would be the one exception but he'd most likely be replacing Mika.
Toronto screwed themselves by acquiring Tavares. You cant ask matthews to take less than 11m when you just signed Tavares whos a lesser player.
Nylander was pre-tavares and he's at 6.9.
The 4 in Toronto is only slightly the problem. Had they moved Nylander earlier on for a defenseman making a comparable salary /talent, it would be a different story in my opinion.
The problem isnt that they have 4 players making so much, its that those 4 are all forwards, and they're not getting a ton of value out of those contracts and don't have any real value deals.
You don't need players making 5/6m you need players who are "worth" 5/6m.
bleedblue94
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Can someone tell me here if I am wrong, IF eichel has continued injury issues with his neck or has the surgery and issues persist would he be eligible for LTIR??
If he is eligible for LTIR with such an injury than why wouldn't a franchise that is rich with money that can afford to pay someone on LTIR AND has a abundance of assets to buy a potential top 20 player in the nhl for less than fair cost why is it not worth the gamble? If LTIR isn't an option than I get having 1/8th of your cap tied into one player that is dead money if he is hurt long term, but if LTIR is a thing for this situation if the injury persists or even if he gets the surgery and he doesn't recover than that is a risk you take everyday. You will lose so assets but we have a ton of secondary assets to use to get a deal done.
If he is eligible for LTIR with such an injury than why wouldn't a franchise that is rich with money that can afford to pay someone on LTIR AND has a abundance of assets to buy a potential top 20 player in the nhl for less than fair cost why is it not worth the gamble? If LTIR isn't an option than I get having 1/8th of your cap tied into one player that is dead money if he is hurt long term, but if LTIR is a thing for this situation if the injury persists or even if he gets the surgery and he doesn't recover than that is a risk you take everyday. You will lose so assets but we have a ton of secondary assets to use to get a deal done.
HatTrick Swayze
Just Be Nice
If he can’t play he can go on LTIR. But if he is cleared to play but just has physical limitations ie his shot is weaker, his reach is limited, whatever...then he can’t go on LTIR.
LTIR only works as a net benefit if your team makes the playoffs without that player. Also insurance pays players on LTIR, so you don't need to be a rich team to take advantage of it. You also don't accrue space for a player on LTIR, so you cant bank cap space for a rental.
Then if you have too much cap space the following season and the player is healthy, you need to move someone, and you can be in a bad spot and be forced to sell low on a good player.
Then if you have too much cap space the following season and the player is healthy, you need to move someone, and you can be in a bad spot and be forced to sell low on a good player.
Inferno
Registered User
You know what else I don't get? And I'm sure I'll get roasted here..but using the leafs as a model not to follow just because they didn't have playoff success these past few years
They finish at or near the top of their divison year in and year out. They make the playoffs. And then key guys get hurt and they lose in 7 games
You can just as easily make the argument that the key to winning in the playoffs is not having your best players get hurt...or get suspended. Game 7 losses are a total coin flip
The habs may have beaten them, but flukey wins happen every year. In most divisons the habs dont make the playoffs.
Year over year success generally is tied into having the most star players, preferably some making under market.
Despite where they are now, is still rather have Toronto's roster than the habs.
Montreal might be further this year but you can absolutely argue that it's a total fluke and unsustainable.
Vegas year in and year out try to move out worse players and bring in superstars...that's literally their entire philosophy. The salaries might be lower but the stars are there nonetheless.
They finish at or near the top of their divison year in and year out. They make the playoffs. And then key guys get hurt and they lose in 7 games
You can just as easily make the argument that the key to winning in the playoffs is not having your best players get hurt...or get suspended. Game 7 losses are a total coin flip
The habs may have beaten them, but flukey wins happen every year. In most divisons the habs dont make the playoffs.
Year over year success generally is tied into having the most star players, preferably some making under market.
Despite where they are now, is still rather have Toronto's roster than the habs.
Montreal might be further this year but you can absolutely argue that it's a total fluke and unsustainable.
Vegas year in and year out try to move out worse players and bring in superstars...that's literally their entire philosophy. The salaries might be lower but the stars are there nonetheless.
bleedblue94
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Flame on, this is just for discussion of top 4 aavs per team
Vegas has:
9.5 stone
8.8 petro
7 patch
5.9 karlsson
(i'm not counting fleury)
which is 38.3% of their cap in 4 guys
if you do count fleury it becomes 39.7% in four guys
for all the complaining of the leafs they have:
11.6 matthews
11 taveras
10.9 marner
6.9 nylander
which is 49.7% of their cap in 4 guys
I dont think ANY team in the league is going to follow the leafs' script
NYR right now has:
11.6 panarin
8 trouba
6.5 CK
5.3 zib
which is 38.7%
If zib is resigned at say an 8.5aav than it becomes:
11.6 panarin
8.5 zib
8 trouba
6.5 CK
which is 42.5%
If you put eichel in there rather than a resigned zib it becomes:
11.6 panarin
10 eichel
8 trouba
6.5 CK
which is 44.4%
I think an acquisition of eichel basically comes down to buying an asset on the cheap and taking a year to see if he can recover from the injury. If he can than you explore Mika's market rather than committing big money to him. If for whatever reason eichel becomes an LTIR thing with a bleak future than you invest back into mika, but now you have two potential options to be your longer term 1c here. I love mika but he is going to be 30 when his next deal kicks in. Buying cheap on eichel to give yourself options isn't a problem to me. How long were we looking for a legit 1c prior to mika falling into our laps? if potentially paying eichel to be on LTIR would be an issue for this ownership than I would understand the pause, but one way or the other the franchise is going to be paying someone between 8.5-10mil to be the 1c here going forward and I would prefer not to make such a commitment to a 30 year old. And yes, barkov is probably the preferred of all options, but I just cant see him getting to ufa status, and if he is signed to an extension before eichel moves than it will most likely increase leverage for buffalo, especially if eichel gets even remotely healthy...
Inferno
Registered User
Toronto can't draft for shit and can't fill in behind their stars with cheap cost controlled assets.
That's their problem.
That's their problem.
Inferno
Registered User
The rangers problem isn't getting eichel.
It's kreider making what he's making, and trouba making what he's making.
It's kreider making what he's making, and trouba making what he's making.
bleedblue94
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correct, but that was the current situation this year and it led him to sit out and go LTIR. Now how much of that is the buffalo factor, who knows...
bleedblue94
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based on the makeup of the team right now I think Kreider is more of the issue. Jake can be here and serve a very useful role especially until his nmc opens up. Kreider seems to be the one that would be great to move now to open options.
Amazing Kreiderman
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bleedblue94
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I would rather have an extra good and healthy player that I HAVE to move instead of looking for one to fill a gaping hole in the middle of the lineup, especially if I got that player for pennies of what his value is if he is healthy.
Everyone kinda dismisses the fact that Mika could just say I wanna sign somewhere else for the most guaranteed money I can especially knowing his injury history. If Barkov resigns and mika decides to walk are we are in rough shape...
Mika has given absolutely no indication he doesn’t want to sign in ny. I also assume that we wouldn’t start the season with Mika not signed to an extension.
bleedblue94
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Has barkov given an indication he doesnt want to resign in flo? yet everyone tries to salivate at the idea he walks.
What if mika wants to wait and bank on a killer first 20 games to try to up his value before signing after an inconsistent season?
Until ink is to paper there is a risk and it takes two to tango. And do you want to commit the big money starting to mika when he is turning 30?
SA16
Sixstring
There is nothing wrong with the leafs cap structure. They have four top players. They are worth their contracts (Tavares arguable). They had a very strong defense this year. Rielly is good. Brodie was good. They had depth with Hyman, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Spezza, Thornton. They had grit/toughness with guys like Simmonds/Hyman/Foligno. They found good goaltending for cheap in Campbell. They just happened to run into a goaltender who played amazing and had one of their best players get injured in game one.
They are absolutely nothing like Edmonton who has McDavid/Draisaitl/RNH and then a bunch of absolute scrubs at forward.
WojtekWolski86
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There is a significant quality drop off from the big 4 and the rest of their roster. While Spezza had a good series, Thornton and Simmonds were absolutely abysmal. Toronto's bottom 6 would have been great in 2013.
That's the problem with rolling the dice on UFA aging vets. You can hit a home run with a guy like Corey Perry and you can hit an absolute dude with Simmonds. Both fill the same roll on paper, 1 just has more left in the tank than the other. Unfortunately for the leafs, they need to hit home runs on these signings because of their cap and they keep whiffing.
bleedblue94
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I tend to agree in many ways, and if we dont have to touch our elite assets I am all day going after eichel IF the character portions of him as a player dont set off red flags with any behinds the scenes stuff that would linger here. I think that is the major concern beyond the injury, and I can see why someone would be in the shitter stuck in buffalo.
Inferno
Registered User
There's 12 forward spots on a team.
Personally speaking I'm a 3 line kinda guy...4th line playing select few minutes here and there to change momentum or give the guys a breather but even if you're a 4 line guy you're still likely not dividing your time up evenly.
If you have 4 stars and are playing 3 lines..that's half your regular lineup. You just can't have 5 black holes out there
Let's just say to get eichel it's gonna cost strome buch some prospects not on the roster and a first this year. I'm talking maybe trading strome for assets and flipping them oraybe strome fills in for other assets we have to move.. but that's the basics.
So that's still leaving you womith the following forwards.
Eichel
Panarin
Mika
Kakko
Lafreniere
Kreider (if he's here)
Chytil
Kravtsov
That along with a strong defense and elite goaltending sets you up for a championship caliber team.
And regarding future contracts..you've got bridge deals to buy time or you figure out how to move kreider and or trouba.
If you have to trade a big contract you'll get assets for those guys.
Inferno
Registered User
The key to this though is getting mika to buy in at a lower dollar amount..like 8mil
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