Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXII

[duhmetreE]

I could see us beating any given team. What I can't see us doing is beating three superior teams in a row.

Things change.

We have barely practiced in the 1st half of the year. There's a disconnect somewhere 5v5. It's beyond a personnel issue. If that gets ironed out, we have all the tools necessary for success.

The hottest team wins.

 

[Fitzy]

Miller if nothing else is a good even strength offensive producer. Over the last three years he is 31st among forwards in 5v5 points. Same amount as Zibanejad in that time frame (albeit with 8 more games played).

His defensive numbers still leave a bit to be desired. But if they are looking for offensive juice at even strength I think he would fit the bill.

Yeah but he has spent a lot of time at ES playing with one of the premier young centers in the game

 

[LORDE]

Well that is my genuine belief. The team is dogshit at 5 on 5 currently. All the winning is masking that the team is a boring unstructured mess most of the time that has a hard time generating and sustaining offensive pressure.

I don't see any player or two players that turn that around who are available to them.

What we are most missing is another top center, and then the maturation of 2-3 forwards (Kakko, Lafreniere, Chytil/Kravtsov) and 2-3 defenders (Lundkvist, Schneider, Jones/Robertson).

That's our path. All those things need to be accomplished. The team isn't going to turn into a powerhouse that can win a Cup without a good number of improvements from young players.

The problem is by time that happens, and by time they've gotten another top C to play on their second line, Zibanejad and Kreider are not going to be Zibanejad and Kreider anymore.

The team is, as egelband said, unsynced. They think they can have two windows but I think they are wrong.

I've been saying exactly this for a while now.

The NYR w Hank had the same problem and they tried to buy their way to a winner by decimating their future.

Our 2 cores are going to get us into the playoffs but we aren't going to win anything except a round or two.

 

[mas0764]

Things change.

We have barely practiced in the 1st half of the year. There's a disconnect somewhere 5v5. It's beyond a personnel issue. If that gets ironed out, we have all the tools necessary for success.

The hottest team wins.

I don't think I really agree... I mean, I guess you can argue the hottest team wins in the sense that you have to be searing hot to win 16 playoff games.

But it also just so happens that that team is usually one of 3-4 overwhelming talent favorites that you could call out at the beginning of the season or playoffs. There is like one exception since 2010.

If you are arguing that teams with poor (in relation) underlying numbers routinely change their stripes once the playoffs begin simply because their goalie gets hot or their power play gets hot, I don't think that's true.

I think our 5 v 5 issue is based on talent issues both up front and on the back end, which is possibly largely due to the youth not developing (which might be coaching), but also because we just aren't talented enough.

We are playing too many Gauthiers, Hunts, and Goodrows in the top 9.

 

[NYR Viper]

Just as an observation, Miller has played some of his best hockey with Petersson. The Rangers have a player in Kravtsov who plays somewhat similar in style to Petersson.

 

[rangersfansince08]

Personally I’d name Colorado, Tampa, Florida, St. Louis at this point as teams with a legit shot at winning it all and should go all in.

VGK and CAR too.

 

[bleedblue94]

Huh? I'm not advocating for other teams or telling them whether to go for it or now. I'm talking about what the Rangers should do.

This is silly, you can't on one hand say that there's five or six teams that are better positioned than the rangers to make a run this year and because of that the rangers can't justify making adds, and then try to avoid identifying those teams 5-6 teams.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

The only teams in the East that really worry me are the 2 Florida teams and Carolina.

Everyone else can be had. Toronto is good too but I'll believe they get over the playoff hump when I see it.

 

[bleedblue94]

Personally I’d name Colorado, Tampa, Florida, St. Louis at this point as teams with a legit shot at winning it all and should go all in.

I don't necessarily disagree with those teams, and I would add Vegas, but every one of those teams has at least one glaring issue if not multiple glaring issues on the roster. I'm thrilled that Florida can score nine goals in a game, but we saw what happens in the playoffs. They need goaltending, and when other teams tighten up goals don't come as easily as they do during the regular season. Same exact thing can be said for Colorado. Out of that group you listed Tampa probably has the best chance to win simply because of their goalie, and that's where Igor is such a huge piece. When he's playing like he's capable of you actually expect him to shut down the other team the entire game and you're surprised when the other team scores. People can claim all they want that you can't plan for that, but when you have a goalie as good as Igor or vaz (I'm not suggesting that they're equals at this point) You have a great equalizer that can completely change everything. There's really no other elite level contenders that have that kind of goaltending at their disposal

 

[bleedblue94]

It's not relevant, I'm not skirting anything.

If you are trying to bait me into a let's run down every other team's roster debate, I'm not interested.

I'm not trying to bait you into anything, You're the one that made the comment that there are five or six teams that are better positioned than the rangers and I'm asking you to identify them. It's 100% relevant if you're saying that the rangers can't justify adding but the other teams can. Who are these other teams and why are they better positioned? Stop with the vague nonsense and quoting an article that you didn't write. Actually give some substance here

 

[Mac n Gs]

If Detroit continues to fall out of the race, maybe they consider dealing Larkin? Similar player to Miller and has been rumored here before

Larkin is a much better player than Miller, and with how he, Raymond, and Bertuzzi have done this year, I can’t see DET moving him. I would’ve paid a lot over the summer for him, but I think that ship has sailed

 

[bleedblue94]

I've been saying exactly this for a while now.

The NYR w Hank had the same problem and they tried to buy their way to a winner by decimating their future.

Our 2 cores are going to get us into the playoffs but we aren't going to win anything except a round or two.

I'm not sure those two cores are at all comparable. Like if you line them up side by side do you really think any of the rosters from the henke era compares to now? I don't at all, today's team would absolutely beat the pants off of the teams from that era

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

I've been saying exactly this for a while now.

The NYR w Hank had the same problem and they tried to buy their way to a winner by decimating their future.

Our 2 cores are going to get us into the playoffs but we aren't going to win anything except a round or two.

First off you never know who will win the cup. ANYONE can win a cup once you make the playoffs.

But this is besides the point. The point is not to sell off on our top rated prospects unless its for a real answer at the #2 center spot. Otherwise hold onto those prospects, trade a few mid round picks and ehh prospects to shore up the team for the playoffs. This year is all about getting our guys into the playoffs for the experience, and the know how to win in the playoffs. Its a GREAT learning experience and one that this team needs to do. Making the playoffs will help show our young guys and everyone else what it takes to win and what they need to work on more. This year is all about taking the next step.

 

[mas0764]

The only teams in the East that really worry me are the 2 Florida teams and Carolina.

Everyone else can be had. Toronto is good too but I'll believe they get over the playoff hump when I see it.

This sounds rational, but there's an even number of teams in the West too, though obviously we can only face one of those.

 

[mas0764]

First off you never know who will win the cup. ANYONE can win a cup once you make the playoffs.

If this is true why doesn't it happen more often? How come it's almost always a clear favorite?

But this is besides the point. The point is not to sell off on our top rated prospects unless its for a real answer at the #2 center spot. Otherwise hold onto those prospects, trade a few mid round picks and ehh prospects to shore up the team for the playoffs. This year is all about getting our guys into the playoffs for the experience, and the know how to win in the playoffs. Its a GREAT learning experience and one that this team needs to do. Making the playoffs will help show our young guys and everyone else what it takes to win and what they need to work on more. This year is all about taking the next step.

This part is right, anyway.

 

[DanielBrassard]

IMO There's a major issue in the system execution. More talent doesn't necessarily fix the issue.

I think you're not wrong that there are probably some things that can adjusted within the system, but I'm not sure how you can say talent isn't an issue. Right now the Rangers have 4 legitimate top 6 forwards, a 3rd line that struggles to produce and a 4th line that hasn't been all that effective since the beginning of the season.

 

[cheech70]

Very True, but JT Miller is also an asset to a team, but not someone you build your offense around. Over last season and this one (91 games), Miller is 81st in the NHL in 5v5 scoring.

Over that same stretch, at 5v5 Among forwards with more than 700 min TOI:
- His point total is 77th in the NHL
- His goal total is 145th in the NHL
- his CF% is 231st in the NHL
- his GF% is 161st in the NHL
- his xGF% is 245th in the NHL

Clearly the team and system come into play on those stats to some extent (particularly possession stats), so they are by no means a "be all, end all", but where Miller has excelled last season and this seasons is the PP where he is 8th in the NHL in scoring (for forwards with over 200 min TOI on the PP).

He's definitely an asset to a team. He can play wing or C. He's got size. He is definitely a weapon on the PP, but he's not someone you would build your offense around either, which is fine, because the type of team acquiring him isn't looking to build their offense around him. They are looking at him as a complementary piece to hopefully push them over the top.

Got this off main board..if these numbers are correct..JT is a PP specialist which we do not need

 

[mas0764]

I'm not trying to bait you into anything, You're the one that made the comment that there are five or six teams that are better positioned than the rangers and I'm asking you to identify them. It's 100% relevant if you're saying that the rangers can't justify adding but the other teams can. Who are these other teams and why are they better positioned? Stop with the vague nonsense and quoting an article that you didn't write. Actually give some substance here

Did I say those teams can justify adding? No I didn't. I'm not looking at those other teams and their futures.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

Larkin is a much better player than Miller, and with how he, Raymond, and Bertuzzi have done this year, I can’t see DET moving him. I would’ve paid a lot over the summer for him, but I think that ship has sailed

To be honest, Larkin is all about whether or not he wants to be part of the long rebuild that will still be going on for a few more years. Larkin is in his prime, i understand he is a detriot boy and all that jazz, but lets be real, if you were 25 and played on a losing team all your life, IE Eichel, you dont think that Larkin would like to take his talent elsewhere in order to win a cup? Lots of things can still happen

 

[mas0764]

I've been saying exactly this for a while now.

The NYR w Hank had the same problem and they tried to buy their way to a winner by decimating their future.

Our 2 cores are going to get us into the playoffs but we aren't going to win anything except a round or two.

To repeat what I said earlier, here's the long term outlook we need to focus on (and I'm not saying these will be the exact lines, just a guideline):

Lafreniere - Zibanejad - Kakko
Panarin - Young Center - Kravtsov
Young winger - Young Center - Chytil
4th Line WGAS

Miller - Fox
Jones - Schneider
Robertson - Lundkvist

There is your winner in 3-4 years from now.

Chase that. Fill in those blanks.

Win 2 Cups. Enjoy.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

If this is true why doesn't it happen more often? How come it's almost always a clear favorite?



This part is right, anyway.

I mean last year was a fluke so cant count that, Also Tampa has been circumventing the cap for those 2 wins. but yes any team can win. You talk about the kings being a powerhouse in the 2010-15. Well when they won they were the 8th seed. So yes i do believe that anyone can win once the playoffs start. Otherwise, why play the games? Its not always the best team wins. Look at tampa won the presidents trophy and got knocked out by the bluejackets! Again, anyone can win.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

I think you're not wrong that there are probably some things that can adjusted within the system, but I'm not sure how you can say talent isn't an issue. Right now the Rangers have 4 legitimate top 6 forwards, a 3rd line that struggles to produce and a 4th line that hasn't been all that effective since the beginning of the season.

Well thats also because we have laf, goodrow, and others on the vid list. If we have a healthy lineup, Hunt, reaves, barron/rooney when they get reunited will be a great 4th line again. 3rd line will be laff, goodrow, and a trade to fill in the other wing. And before you or anyone else says goodrow shouldnt be on the 3rd line isnt watching him play.

Lets take a breath

 

[mas0764]

I mean last year was a fluke so cant count that

Last year definitely counts.

but yes any team can win. You talk about the kings being a powerhouse in the 2010-15. Well when they won they were the 8th seed. So yes i do believe that anyone can win once the playoffs start. Otherwise, why play the games? Its not always the best team wins. Look at tampa won the presidents trophy and got knocked out by the bluejackets! Again, anyone can win.

Citing a #1 seed getting knocked off doesn't disprove my point because I didn't say "the #1 seed always wins." How far did Columbus get that year? That's right, after beating Tampa they were summarily dispatched the following round.

I said it is far too rarely a team that just gets hot. The Blues did it in 2018 as a 5th seed, I had forgotten about the Kings being an 8 seed in 2011 but they were also a team that was entering a 3 year stretch of dominance, so was it them "getting hot," or was it a young team beginning their period of ascendency?

Granted you could argue we could begin a similar transition starting this season, but again, this would be a rarity. The overwhelming majority of the time it's not necessarily the 1 seed but it is one of the top 2-3 seeds which tend to be the teams in the elite group.

Low ranking teams getting hot and winning it all is just not something to be betting on. Of course you play the games and hope for the best but you don't bet money on it either unless you're a fool.

We may very well be a top 3 seed this year but the underlying numbers say that, if we are going to go off history, we aren't really a contender yet.

 

[bleedblue94]

Did I say those teams can justify adding? No I didn't. I'm not looking at those other teams and their futures.

You identified 5-6 as teams that are in a better position than the rangers to go for it. If someone is going for it they should add no? That is the context that we have been discussing for days. Now you are trying to squirm back and avoid having to provide anything substantial to back your position.

I will make it even easier for you, forgot the 5-6, which teams 0, 1, 3, 10?) do you think are justified in the nhl to add this year?

 

[surlysailor]

Maybe I'm wrong but I think a Miller deal would look similar to the Yandle to NYR as parameters for this deal. So something like:

conditional 1,
2nd round pick (better of the NYR or STL pick)
Jones/Lundkvist/Cuylle = Duclair (Higher end, not elite prospect)
Chytil/Barron/Gauthier=Moore (Young NHL player).

Not saying I'd do that but I think something like maybe less gets it done, esp if there's cap retention