Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXII

[bleedblue94]

Winning the cup is just mostly luck and try until you win. You guys are overthinking it.

bingo, you put your team in the best position to make a run and then you let them do their best. get skill and character mixed with some elite talent and see what they do together. there is no perfect plan

 

[mas0764]

you're not demonstarting anything other than cup winner typically add to their rosters to make a run, which is something you argued against previously so you are actually contradicting yourself.

You were asking about Point. I posted the breakdown to show you what an "elite first line center," looks like according to the checklist.

And I never argued that Cup winners should absolutely never add to their roster. You misunderstand what I'm saying.

I'm saying this Rangers team should not trade premium assets.

I do say renting is almost always a losing proposition but there is a time and place for it. Just not for this team.

it is NEVER "obvious" to anyone that a team is a cup winner.

It is quite obvious which teams are serious contenders and which aren't.

The Lightning are a serious contender. The Avalanche are a serious contender.

The Rangers are a cut below them. All the stats bear it out. We are a good not great team being carried by hot goaltending.

While it is possible to go on a miracle run constructed as such, it is not likely. All this talk of "We have the hot goalie, we have as good a chance as anyone!" is not correct.

The teams that have far more talent than us, ie, the average Cup contender per the checklist, are going to wear us down over multiple 7 game series's. We can steal one series from a team like that but over time the law of averages will get us.

These guys need playoff experience

They are going to get it this year. There is no stopping this team from being a playoff team. Trading Strome or declining to pay exorbitant rental prices would not change this.

you realize if you are just going to phase out of the kreider zib panarin team than at best you hope kakko and laf replace panarin and zib, and then you are actually in a worse postion at that point than you are in the next 2 years unless you are backfilling the losses of panarin, zib, and kreider with new verions of kakko and laf (good luck)...

Exactly.

We have work to do for the long term. Let's get cracking.

you currently have a top 5 team in the league

This team is not one of the best 5 teams in the league. It's just not.

That may be the main breakdown here. If I believed they were actually as good as Tampa, Colorado, or one of the elite teams, I would be in favor of them going for it.

I don't believe that though.

I think they are a clear second tier team. They are a good team riding hot goaltending.

what top 5 team has stripped itself down?

The time for stripping down is over. There isn't much to strip. I would definitely entertain trading Strome but he's the only easily moveable asset.

Trouba and Kreider will both need to be moved for cap space at some point, that's a when not if question, that is definitely coming, but the time of moving Kreider for an asset haul has passed, so that's not stripping down either.

we have a 1c, a top 5 winger in the world, a top 5 defenseman in the world, and a top 5 goalie in the world. figure the rest of it out, organizations DREAM of having all those things at the same time...

Loser organizations dream of it. Cup winners all have it, and more.

We are missing the "and more," part still.

you are literally making the point as to why they are in their window and need to go now...

There is no way to reasonably turn this team into a team that can win a Cup with trades at this deadline.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Folks, the train is moving forward. You’re either on board or not, but either way this team is going to try and win a cup this year

so ya might as well get on the bandwagon and just accept it

 

[mas0764]

So I guess everyone except Tampa should pack it up for the season?

I don't know of any other team that checks off all these boxes, and you can pretty easily argue that Tampa Bay did not have an "Elite first-line center that’s among the very best players in the world" for either of their victories.

You are incorrect in your assessment of other teams.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

You're also assuming everyone will be there at once playing PRIOR to the playoffs, I am extremely skeptical of that.

Eichel has been skating with the team already and is slated to be back sometime next month, so at the very least 10 mill gotta go before the deadline. I don't know about Martinez. Don't forget, the playoffs start in May this year, tough to drag a LTIR injury out for an extra full month of the season.

 

[mas0764]

finding a 1c isnt as easy as you seem to think.

Finding a Crosby or McDavid is not going to be possible for us, in all likelihood, true.

This is where (if you bothered to actually read the article) you'll see that there is checklist flexibility, but we still have to get as close as we can to replicating it. Or, if we are short one place, have excess elsewhere.

We are not going to be able to replicate Pittsburgh. There is no way we are going to get a 1-2 down the middle of Crosby-Malkin.

What isn't debatable though is that we are far too short on forward talent. We are too short as we stand here now, and we are too short as projected in the future.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Thats quite the hot take

Ha. How so?

 

[CupSeeker]

Folks, the train is moving forward. You’re either on board or not, but either way this team is going to try and win a cup this year

so ya might as well get on the bandwagon and just accept it

Not so sure about this. Our play against the top teams says we are a step below (even with a few wins) and that step will not be taken with a rental. Patience.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

This is the part of the Miller thing from Seranavanillaelli that makes me think that their interest in Miller is basically our price or no price.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Not so sure about this. Our play against the top teams says we are a step below (even with a few wins) and that step will not be taken with a rental. Patience.

They’re never going to have this much cap space with this collection of players at the current salary. If there was ever a time to go for it, it’s now

 

[mas0764]

umm, but it did. pitt was a mess and so was chicago. people remember the cup wins but dont remember what came before. you trying to skip over that shows you dont really have an appreciation for where those franchises were prior to being good. it took a lot to pull them out of it...

Um, but it didn't. They lost for half a decade and then became multi time Cup winners. It did not cause them to become Edmonton or Buffalo.

Yeah it took a lot to pull them out. That's the point here, we need more talent still.

If Pittsburgh had gone gung-ho after getting Malkin and never drafted Crosby, they also do not become Edmonton or Buffalo but they sure as hell don't win 3 Cups.

again you skip over the fact one team got a top 5 player all time and the other got a top 2 or 3 american player of all time. those players are exceptionally rare, that is why they are the best of the best. edmonton has two of the best players of the last decade and they cant get out of their own way. I dont mean this meanly, but were you a fan during the true dark years of the late 90s and early 2000s? Did you actually experience the struggle of this franchise trying to rebuild itself and find a mix that worked? any franchise that has gone through that and knows how hard it is o get out of it isnt looking to intentionally go back that far, that is a huge reason that when nyr stripped things down a few years ago they turned around and invested into elite players to keep the franchise pointing up.

I'm not skipping over anything. You are arguing that tanking doesn't work. That is incorrect. It did work. Pointing out that their tanking was somehow special because they got an elite player is exactly the point.

The risk to becoming Edmonton isn't because they did too much losing. Edmonton is Edmonton because they are a horribly run franchise that can't get out of it's own way, not because they lost too much and a losing culture set in. If losing too much doomed you to being a loser forever no one would ever have success tanking. But teams do have success tanking, they tank and then get special, elite talent, and then they turn it around with good management.

We have (had?) good management. We are an Original 6 team with an allure, good facilities, a good fan base, players want to play here, and at the very least our owner is willing to spend. We aren't going to become Edmonton or Buffalo.

Yes I experienced the dark ages. There was a whole lot of "win now" moves at the expense of youth. Did you experience those years?

did they tank?

no...

Whatever it was they did is what I'm saying is effective. Losing and missing the playoffs for 5 years in a row.

 

[mas0764]

Winning the cup is just mostly luck and try until you win. You guys are overthinking it.

That's not really substantiated at all. The winners of the last decade have almost all been talent laden prohibitive favorites that comport to the checklist I've produced many times.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Peoples vague definitions of what constitutes a Stanley cup contender never get us anywhere on here.


Seems to me with Miller the questions are fit, price, and style. He’s got a lot of the same holes to his game as Strome. RGY has noted he’s better in the face off circle but that’s a relatively small factor.

Can’t expect him to come here and put up a PPG if he’s gonna be out there on the third line and second PP unit either, no matter how optimistic we are. Look at Selanne and Kariya or Robataille when they played on the third line for super clubs.

No reason to make the deal if that's the way we plan to use him. Miller is 4th in the league in PP points...why would we keep him on the 2nd unit?

 

[mas0764]

Terrible fit for Panarin. He’s basically the lowest volume shooter in the entire league.

Put Barbanov with Zibanejad and move Kakko back with Panarin.

 

[mas0764]

I mean, if you step back and forget Miller during his time here, he’s kind of the perfect target for this team. He’s still got one year left on his deal, can slot anywhere in the lineup this year, and easily slots in at 2C next year. He’d also prevent them from giving a long-term deal to Strome and buy them another year for Chytil to figure it out (assuming he isn’t moved). I think that’s where the most value would be in this deal.

I liked Miller during his time here, even though he got incredibly frustrating at the end. If the team is going to make a big move -whether you agree with it or not - getting someone in the same mold as JT Miller does make the most sense. I’m just not sure who else is out there that also has some term and plays C that’s realistically available for trade.

Miller is interesting but I wouldn't want to pay a ton.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Um, but it didn't. They lost for half a decade and then became multi time Cup winners. It did not cause them to become Edmonton or Buffalo.

Yeah it took a lot to pull them out. That's the point here, we need more talent still.

If Pittsburgh had gone gung-ho after getting Malkin and never drafted Crosby, they also do not become Edmonton or Buffalo but they sure as hell don't win 3 Cups.



I'm not skipping over anything. You are arguing that tanking doesn't work. That is incorrect. It did work. Pointing out that their tanking was somehow special because they got an elite player is exactly the point.

The risk to becoming Edmonton isn't because they did too much losing. Edmonton is Edmonton because they are a horribly run franchise that can't get out of it's own way, not because they lost too much and a losing culture set in. If losing too much doomed you to being a loser forever no one would ever have success tanking. But teams do have success tanking, they tank and then get special, elite talent, and then they turn it around with good management.

We have (had?) good management. We are an Original 6 team with an allure, good facilities, a good fan base, players want to play here, and at the very least our owner is willing to spend. We aren't going to become Edmonton or Buffalo.

Yes I experienced the dark ages. There was a whole lot of "win now" moves at the expense of youth. Did you experience those years?



Whatever it was they did is what I'm saying is effective. Losing and missing the playoffs for 5 years in a row.

Chicago didn't have some master plan. There was an ownership issue and the entire organization was a mess, they are the definition of lucky.

 

[cheech70]

This is the part of the Miller thing from Seranavanillaelli that makes me think that their interest in Miller is basically our price or no price.

The price for JT is too high for 1.5 years...Drury did not succumb to the Vegas price for Eichel ....this is not the year to go for it.

 

[tomobson]

I like the idea of JT Miller especially if you add in some retention. You can put him on the RW of the Panarin line and let him take faceoffs and he can fill in as 2c next season. He's an amazing passer, way better than Strome, so I don't think he'll have issues with Panarin. Although, I don't think there is any way Panarin isn't playing with Mika next season anyways.

 

[mas0764]

My deadline prediction at this point is Reilly Smith to play with Panarin and Strome, and a depth LD that they can replace Nemeth with. Neither of those two things should cost an arm and a leg. They address their needs in the middle of the ice in the summer.

I'm hopeful you can get Reilly Smith for like a second.

 

[bleedblue94]

You are incorrect in your assessment of other teams.

So again who checks those boxes currently, and who checks them off better than nyr?

 

[TheBloodyNine]

I am a firm believer of that need for top-of-the-draft talent in order to win a cup. You get those players by being bad. In the cap era, the only teams that have done it without that are the Wings (won because they drafted Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk in the later rounds) and the Bruins (drafted Marchand, Bergeron, Krecji, Thomas in the later rounds and signed Chara, and who even still had Seguin on their team who played big when they needed him to). It's much easier to win like the Blackhawks, Kings, Penguins and Lightning did than the Red Wings and Bruins. The key to all of it is great drafting. You need those top of the draft guys but you also need to find guys in the later rounds. That's why the Oilers are bad - their later round drafting is dogshit.

 

[mas0764]

This is the part of the Miller thing from Seranavanillaelli that makes me think that their interest in Miller is basically our price or no price.

Good, don't cave.

 

[bleedblue94]

You were asking about Point. I posted the breakdown to show you what an "elite first line center," looks like according to the checklist.

And I never argued that Cup winners should absolutely never add to their roster. You misunderstand what I'm saying.

I'm saying this Rangers team should not trade premium assets.

I do say renting is almost always a losing proposition but there is a time and place for it. Just not for this team.



It is quite obvious which teams are serious contenders and which aren't.

The Lightning are a serious contender. The Avalanche are a serious contender.

The Rangers are a cut below them. All the stats bear it out. We are a good not great team being carried by hot goaltending.

While it is possible to go on a miracle run constructed as such, it is not likely. All this talk of "We have the hot goalie, we have as good a chance as anyone!" is not correct.

The teams that have far more talent than us, ie, the average Cup contender per the checklist, are going to wear us down over multiple 7 game series's. We can steal one series from a team like that but over time the law of averages will get us.



They are going to get it this year. There is no stopping this team from being a playoff team. Trading Strome or declining to pay exorbitant rental prices would not change this.



Exactly.

We have work to do for the long term. Let's get cracking.



This team is not one of the best 5 teams in the league. It's just not.

That may be the main breakdown here. If I believed they were actually as good as Tampa, Colorado, or one of the elite teams, I would be in favor of them going for it.

I don't believe that though.

I think they are a clear second tier team. They are a good team riding hot goaltending.



The time for stripping down is over. There isn't much to strip. I would definitely entertain trading Strome but he's the only easily moveable asset.

Trouba and Kreider will both need to be moved for cap space at some point, that's a when not if question, that is definitely coming, but the time of moving Kreider for an asset haul has passed, so that's not stripping down either.



Loser organizations dream of it. Cup winners all have it, and more.

We are missing the "and more," part still.



There is no way to reasonably turn this team into a team that can win a Cup with trades at this deadline.

I can't keep rehashing the same things over and over with you, but saying that there's no reasonable way to turn this team into a cup winner at this deadline is absolutely ridiculous. They literally have the hardest pieces to acquire while also having significant cap space and assets to make trades. Nobody around here is advocating for trading premium assets for rentals, although you keep saying they shouldn't do it as if people are arguing with you to just give away their best players for grinders. It's like you're trying to argue with yourself rather than argue against reasonable takes by others.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

I'm hopeful you can get Reilly Smith for like a second.

I think a 2nd and a prospect and maybe a conditional later pick or something like that. Teams will want him but how many teams in a position to add players can take him at his full ticket like the Rangers can? Not many.

 

[mas0764]

Chicago didn't have some master plan. There was an ownership issue and the entire organization was a mess, they are the definition of lucky.

How does this change the point though?

Someone said tanking doesn't work.

Well, whatever you call it, losing until you've drafted enough at the top of drafts to have elite talent does in fact work.