Of course. The point of posting it was a demonstration of what the different categories of the checklist look like in real life on a Cup winner.
you're not demonstarting anything other than cup winner typically add to their rosters to make a run, which is something you argued against previously so you are actually contradicting yourself.
Tampa Bay made short term moves once it was obvious they had a two time (maybe three time) Cup winner on their hands.
I will hate trading a first for Barclay Goodrow (as Tampa did) far less when we have all the star boxes checked off.
it is NEVER "obvious" to anyone that a team is a cup winner. winning the cup is the hardest thing in all sports and also requires an incredible amount of luck that you cannot quantify. all you can do is put your team in the best position to take advantage of opportunities.
I'm trying to win multiple Stanley Cups. I'd like at least two from the Kakko-Lafreniere-Fox core.
These guys need playoff experience. you need to get them exposed to those games. fox has played 3 random play in games in his career. Panarin and 3 of the team's top 5 players are all rolling into their 30s, the longer you wait the worse the cap situation will get here and the older your best players becomes. if panarin, kreider, and zib were all 3-5 years younger you might be onto something but the fact is they are in or entering their 30s and have a finite time left of being elite players.
If I was convinced that we had "one window now" with Kreider and Zibanejad and then could easily transition to "a second window later," led by Kakko and Lafreniere, I would wholeheartedly support that. But I don't think we are good enough now with the absence of Kakko and Laf being stars yet, and by time they get there, I don't think Kreider and Zibanejad will be good enough any more. As such, and given our obvious 5 on 5 shortcomings this season as an example, I just don't see any way that this team really gets over the hump with "this window." I never have. Guys like Kreider and Strome just aren't good enough to check off those elite boxes that the checklist demands.
you realize if you are just going to phase out of the kreider zib panarin team than at best you hope kakko and laf replace panarin and zib, and then you are actually in a worse postion at that point than you are in the next 2 years unless you are backfilling the losses of panarin, zib, and kreider with new verions of kakko and laf (good luck)...
So the question to me is, if I can't get there now, how do I get there later?
you currently have a top 5 team in the league, what top 5 team has stripped itself down? when is the last time nyr had a top 5 team? what did they do when they had that team (hint, they added to it and made repeated runs).
By trading now for later. No rentals. Keep building.
trading now for later means you are making the team worse, no top 5 or even top 10 nhl team does that. also, going into this season the team made adds to help NOW with reavo, goodrow, ect, what could possibly make you think they would reverse course on that, or even should consider it when it has ben successful. the goal should be further developing the young kids we have while maintaining the successful level of play that we have right now, not stripping it down to hope that we are this good again in a couple of years...
We don't have the elite pieces yet. If we had those elite pieces I agree we'd be justified. But we don't.
we have a 1c, a top 5 winger in the world, a top 5 defenseman in the world, and a top 5 goalie in the world. figure the rest of it out, organizations DREAM of having all those things at the same time...
Here's the list, and I'll fill in what we have:
- Elite first-line center that’s among the very best players in the world. < --- Zibanejad
- Elite first-line winger to support the elite centre. <--- Panarin
- Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines. <--- Right now, Kreider is one, but maybe for another year or two before he declines.
- Top-line centre to play behind the elite center. <--- We don't have this
- Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six. <-- We don't have this. Strome is probably one, but neither Laf, Kakko, or Chytil fill the second void to date.
- Elite No. 1 defenseman. <--- Fox
- A second No. 1 defenseman to play behind him. <--- We don't have this. Trouba isn't good enough to check this box.
- A top-pairing defenseman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2. <-- Maybe Trouba fits here, though I'm still not even quite sure he does.
- Another top-pairing caliber defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair. <-- We don't have this yet, but our pipeline of defenders is strong enough that I can assume we will one day.
- A top-10 caliber starting goaltender. <--- Shesterkin
So we are missing, right this moment, I'd say,
- 1 top line winger
- 1 top line center
- 1 top 6 forward
- 2 top pair caliber defenders
if you add a top winger or top center than you also have taken care of the top 6 forward
a second top pairing d man? how many teams in the league have two #1 d men. come on, this is fantasy. even in tampa they have an elite #1 and an elite #3. McD is not a top pair guy at this point in his career, but he elevates in the playoffs.
There is no way to acquire this magnitude of assets be renting or free agent signings given our cap situation. We are stuck in good not great territory with this core.
We have something like 30 mil in cap space this season, we can literally acquire anything we want. The entire point is that we dont have that flexibility after this season, and we wont have it unless we are stripping away known quality/elite players to free up cap space for players that we HOPE become quality/elite players.
This is on par with the family guy episode where peter can chose between a boat and a surprise in a box which he hopes is.... a boat...
The HOPE is that Lafreniere, Kakko, and Chytil (or Kravtsov) fill those three forward spots, but I'd argue that even if they pan out there's not a top line center in that group, so we are still needing one of those. The hope is also that of our stable of defensive prospects (Lundkvist, Schneider, Jones, Miller, Robertson) you get two studs out of that (and I'd argue your best bet is Lundkvist and Schneider, so they should both probably be kept unless you are getting a long term top center in a package for one), and the others can be solid enough players to fill out your defensive depth, because as we've seen, signing Patrik Nemeths isn't going to cut it.
how long did this org look for a 1c? they have one now and you are looking to waste the time that we have him in his prime. you can shop around all you want but that brassard zib trade is noted for being awful, and it was awful for ottawa the moment they made it. holding out hope for another gift like that is foolish, you dont plan around benefiting from someone else's mistakes. you plan for reality and you try to be ready for someone's mistakes if the opportunity presents itself. it is on par with planning to win the lottery every year, it doesnt happen...
The problem with those hopes is that by time they come to fruition, at this pace, it's probably going to be another 2-3 seasons. By that time, Kreider is no longer going to be a top line winger. Zibanejad may no longer be a Brayden Point "elite center that's among the best in the world," category. In fact I'd already argue that he's not, but this is where the "checklist," has some flexibility, and I'll say currently it's our "elite first line winger," (Panarin) who is "among the very best players in the world," and that's how we get by.
But it's likely that in those 2-3 seasons Zibanejad is no longer filling that "elite first line center," box and instead he's more of the "top line center to play behind the elite center." Ok.... so where are we getting the elite center from?
you are literally making the point as to why they are in their window and need to go now...
Say also by that point that Lafreniere and Kakko are the "two other top line wingers," and Chytil has developed and is one of the "two more top 6 forwards." Who is the other? If we are lucky, Kreider will maybe still be a borderline top 6 player. But maybe he's not. Maybe he declines further - very possible.
if you have any expectation of chytil being a good top 6 player than you are already planning poorly
Maybe Zibanejad, who has a concussion history, also declines further and faster. Maybe Panarin does not stay at the "one of the best players in the world," category either. Maybe Kakko never gets to "top line winger," but instead just reaches "top 6 winger."
hey, again you are making the point as yo why they are in their window right now and need to go. they have 2-4 years to make it work with this group...
All kinds of pitfalls.
So if I'm left to conclude that there's no reasonable way for us to fill the checklist now, until Kakko, Lafreniere, Chytil/Kravtsov, and the defensive kids have matured, then I have to plan for THAT window.
literally every team in the league has gaping holes on its roster right now, we are one of the very few that have most of the hardest pieces covered, and I believe we are the only one of that group that has an insane amount of cap space for this season...
And THAT window is missing a top center and possibly/probably a top line winger/top 6 winger.
that "window" couldnt be more of an unknown at this point and is foolish to plan for. again, take now where you know you have all the great pieces that you do have OR wait and hope that............. you end up with all the great pieces in the future that you already know that you have today. OH, and you actually have cap space today to address the holes in the roster. it is a complete no brainer...