Speculation: Roster Building thread - Part XVII - (TDL is March 7th)

  • Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
In retrospect, I would have liked to swoop in on Buffalo a couple of years back when the vibe would have been "we're almost ready, we just need a couple of vets now."

I don't think Buffalo would believe that at this point. They're pretty clearly towards the cellar.

Mika and kreider both make a ton of sense for Buffalo imo. I still think they feel their issue is lack of veteran leadership and experience. Our guys will never waive to got here though, thats the rub unfortunately
 
  • Like
Reactions: Machinehead
Mika and kreider both make a ton of sense for Buffalo imo. I still think they feel their issue is lack of veteran leadership and experience. Our guys will never waive to got here though, thats the rub unfortunately
Yeah, I could see that. It's Buffalo, so anything is possible.

I think they're just not very good. Outside of Thompson, McLeod, Dahlin, and Power, there's just a bunch of dudes in that lineup. And Tuch is fine, but overall, they haven't developed any depth in that lineup.

But again, it's Buffalo, so I could see them saying "we just need a vet who will rouse the boys we don't have!"
 
  • Like
Reactions: McRanger92
If it McLeod and Byram, the package is kreider, lindgren and Schneider. I'd do that. I think buffalo would too actually. Maybe even Mika too. Their team is too young and no one has been to the dance. The Rangers can uniquely offer everything that would help them.
 
Like @Boris Zubov said, I don’t think so. Schneider for sure - they need RD. With Fox and Borgen signed though I’d be willing to move a young RD for a still young LD. Byram has very good upside still. Injuries plus him being surplus with Dahlin/Power signed long term on the left and him possibly not wanting to extend in Buffalo allows him to be a solid buy low target. McLeod is also an RFA who may not want to sign there and he doesn’t have the kind of value to get Perreault. I think you could get Byram and McLeod for Schneider + Chmelar/Laba or Schneider + Kaliyev + 2nd. Buffalo would covet a physical young RHD.
Byram is a bit of an enigma, I'm not sure I'd want to include him, but count me in for McLeod.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheDirtyH
Hope you guys feel better. Hang in there.

I would say this about Fox. I think his play trending down is alarming, but there's a couple of factors that cannot be discounted when evaluating him the past 2 years. One are the injuries, two is the absolute anchor for a partner he's been saddled with. I think the org would be best served to see where the team is in relation to the standings before rushing him back for a stretch run that may never materialize. If they're a long shot to make the playoffs I would hope they would just let him extend his offseason so he can heal up. They also need to correct their failure of the past few years to upgrade the 1LD spot.

I'm not an huge analytics believer for a few reasons, but the comment @GoAwayPanarin made earlier in this thread is probably the biggest reason why. When presented with a list of players, his response was this set of of stats wasn't as valuable as another services'. So who's right & which numbers hold more weight? It seems too arbitrary & there's way too much data to consider when considering individual players. I feel like they can be a good road map, but they're not the be all, end all that many would have us believe. There needs to be a middle ground between what the numbers say & what they eye test tells us. If not, there would be entire scouting departments out of a job.

I think anything you can get for free is obviously going to be flawed but I also don't think people generally use numbers correctly.

For instance, I remember at one point in the playoffs the Kakko-Wennberg-Cuylle line led all lines in xGF% slightly ahead of McDavid's line. They had an expected goal variance of less than 1 goal better while McDavid's line was nearly +2. The percentage of xG was in favor of the former but the overall difference heavily favored the latter. I'd rather have what ever the McDavid line was doing.

In addition, I think anything that can drill down what a player does individually has the most value. Things like the score cards that were used earlier are pretty team/who ever your out on the ice with/against focused. Good players who play on bad teams are going to grade out worse than decent players on great teams. It becomes really plus-minusy on that end and the only really value of plus minus is when you have a player (or players) who heavily skew from the group one way or the other.

Again for the sake of discussing Fox, both of these things shine well on him because his partner grades out so poorly on basically every scale (game score actually props him up a bit because he's loaded up on a f*** ton of secondary assists this year) and the variance between him and Lindgren is f***ing massive.

The eye test matches up here too. Lindgren has been a putrid player since the beginning of last season and theres an obvious impact on everyone when he's out there. He's a net minus at basically everything he's counted on to do, even the things he used to be good (or even great) at.

McDonagh was discussed pretty heavily here a few pages ago and there were people who said they were shocked to see how good he was once he left the Rangers and how he was a #3 here.

He played with f***ing Girardi for almost the entire time he was here. Him looking better away from him shouldn't have shocked anyone





Well that’s a flat out lie, since the other two are Morrisey and Heiskanen, and that level of disingenuous bad faith debate makes me utterly disinclined to respond to the rest of your message.

Okay honest mistake, for real. I peeped Werenski's D rating and it was identical to who ever skater #5 is with out even looking at the rest of the stuff.


I'm a lot of things, but don't call me a liar.

With alllll of that said, I really hope everything is okay on your end. We had a few scares with dehydration towards the end of my Fiance's pregnancy and it's the least fun I think I've had in my life (all turned out fine for us and we have a very healthy and loud 3 and a half month old and mom rebounded like a champ.)
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheDirtyH
I would really prefer to wait and see how UFA unfolds this off-season before jettisoning the little assets the team has to bring in someone like Byram. McLeod is intriguing for sure but I'm concerned with the price
 
  • Like
Reactions: McRanger92
Back during his peak, the guy was a mini Mario at 5v5.

He hasn't aged particularly well.
I'd say more like a mini Jagr. Incredibly strong legs, almost impossible to separate him from the puck 1 on 1.

Hertl for Mika. Lots of house music in Vegas.
I'd do it simply to move Mika, and also because San Jose is still retaining on his deal. If we had to move him at 50% in 2-3 years, it only comes out to $3.875 on the books which isn't awful.
 
I mentioned him before but I like Michael McCarron as a cheaper C option. rangers have top 6 depth at c with JT, Trocheck and Mika. McCarron is a good defensive player based on some charts I've seen. Good faceoff man. Always around the crease. Big body who is always willing to fight. Checks a lot of boxes. Would not preclude the Rangers from handling their larger business. Would probably be a guy who you could keep around past this year like Borgen. This team plays bad defense because they have bad defensive players. They need to acquire some because they clearly can't develop them anymore lol.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dijock94
The issue is that people are coming out of the woodwork to harp on his shortcomings, and glossing over the point you yourself make "he’s a great defenseman because of his overall impact"

Isn't my team outchancing and outscoring the opposition, ultimately the end goal of what we are trying to do here? If they do that overwhelmingly when a given player is on the ice, across competition, yes even in the playoffs, shouldn't that ultimately be the largest part of player evaluation?

The culture of this sport is obsessed with physical characteristics, size and strength in the corners and netfront particularly, dating back to the 70s with the Summit Series and the Broadstreet Bullies. These characteristics have been the defining branding of 'Canadian hockey' in contrast to 'European hockey' for 50+ years. This distinction has been passed down from generation to generation through the hockey media, youth hockey coaches, and fan to fan. Given that being a former player raised in this culture is the surest way into NHL coaching, management, and media positions, this narrative continues to be dominant to this day, and seeps into all decision making.

And before you mistake me - I'm not saying it's a false bias, or grounded in untruths. The idea that size and strength presents and advantage in many areas of NHL hockey IS correct. However it is far too often used as a primary consideration when evaluating a player's effectiveness, usually via the eye test. "Fox looks slow" "Fox lost his man in front of the net again" "Wow Fox got pushed around the the corner" "The game is moving too fast for this guy" is all we seem to hear from certain posters. If his net results are still good, how much should we care? Are these perceived issues a predictor of future results, or a blow to our own ego i.e. how could he be that good, if I think he looks so slow and weak?


Oh my god thank you.

If the net result of whatever Fox does is concluded to be overwhelmingly positive then who f***ing cares how he looks doing it. I don’t understand the bellyaching. If Fox came onto the ice in a Halloween costume and played with his stick upside down but achieved these results, I wouldn’t give a shit how he looked doing it.

You know what’s funny, I can think of another American rangers defenseman who was on the smaller side, wasn’t physical and who also did not care to spend his offseasons being a workout warrior or training on the astronaut treadmill like Ivan Drago. Hell, he even had a miserable season after his team won the presidents trophy and broke his ankle slipping while exiting a taxi cab lmao.

HFNYR in 1993 would’ve wanted him executed if this season has taught me anything.
 
I do know that isn’t true for yourself and some others. You also know it is true for a solid handful as well.

There was a time we thought McDonagh had Norris potential, though admittedly, we also all know true defensive D never even get nominated. Better is a relative word. Fox is far more offensively talented in a way that goes beyond the physical ability to handle the puck or weave a pass. His IQ and vision and game sense with the puck are superlative. A large part of his positive defensive impact does not actually happen inside the D zone. It happens by moving the puck the other direction. McDonagh was a hell of a defender and still managed to put up 30ish EV points per year as well as a season with 43 non-PP points. That also happens to be Fox’s career high for non-PP points.

Is Panarin better than Bergeron? Panarin’s broken 95 points more times that Bergeron broke 70. Career high 120 vs 79. Bergeron is in the hall before Panarin, zero doubts. Now, I’m not using that as a comparison, only to illustrate the weight of points. Obviously with Fox and (prime) McD, I think most would agree Fox is better, but just because he puts up points, I don’t believe the gap is nearly what people would think it is. There are other ways to have a massive positive impact on the game, in the case of Bergeron vs Panarin. A career high that’s more than 50% above Bergeron’s career high still can’t close the gap for Panarin. In McDonagh’s case, I’d argue respectable 5v5 numbers, dominant defense, great athleticism, good longevity and 2 Cups brings him closer to Fox’s level than many would care to admit. Just because the points column isn’t as sexy, doesn’t mean he (was) much less effective. Bread and butter looks plain but feeds you better than a box of fancy chocolates.
You're advocating on behalf of posters who are actually being called out here.

McD and Fox bring somewhat different attributes while both are bona fide top first pair Ds. Similarly, Panarin and Bergeron bring different attributes when it comes to top forwards. The specific problem posters have here re. Panarin is not how he compares to Bergeron but how he compares to himself regular season vs playoffs.
 
As leader of the trade Fox club my opinion is this: the foot speed thing is real and it matters more than anything else Hockey is often a game of inches and seconds or even half seconds. Multiple half seconds differences compound into goals. Happens every day.

Guys get older, their skating declines, but their IQ and anticipation improve from experience so they stay effective. Tale as old as time, literally thousands of examples.

What happens when a guy who is already 100/100 in IQ and anticipation loses something physically? What does he use as compensation? That's my big concern.

Adam Fox has been a perennial top 5 D since his second year. No question. Probably still is.

But when he goes from being Adam Fox to Larry Murphy, what now? Larry Murphy was a great player. But he wasnt really an anchor 1D. Are they gonna appropriately slot Adam Fox as he declines to Larry Murphy or are they gonna keep acting he's still Adam Fox?

I'd rather get in front of that than see the team ignore the decline until they can't. Sue me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HatTrick Swayze
As leader of the trade Fox club my opinion is this: the foot speed thing is real and it matters more than anything else Hockey is often a game of inches and seconds or even half seconds. Multiple half seconds differences compound into goals. Happens every day.

Guys get older, their skating declines, but their IQ and anticipation improve from experience so they stay effective. Tale as old as time, literally thousands of examples.

What happens when a guy who is already 100/100 in IQ and anticipation loses something physically? What does he use as compensation? That's my big concern.

Adam Fox has been a perennial top 5 D since his second year. No question. Probably still is.

But when he goes from being Adam Fox to Larry Murphy, what now? Larry Murphy was a great player. But he wasnt really an anchor 1D. Are they gonna appropriately slot Adam Fox as he declines to Larry Murphy or are they gonna keep acting he's still Adam Fox?

I'd rather get in front of that than see the team ignore the decline until they can't. Sue me.

Show your work if you want to trade him. What's a fair deal you'd make?
 
As leader of the trade Fox club my opinion is this: the foot speed thing is real and it matters more than anything else Hockey is often a game of inches and seconds or even half seconds. Multiple half seconds differences compound into goals. Happens every day.

Guys get older, their skating declines, but their IQ and anticipation improve from experience so they stay effective. Tale as old as time, literally thousands of examples.

What happens when a guy who is already 100/100 in IQ and anticipation loses something physically? What does he use as compensation? That's my big concern.

Adam Fox has been a perennial top 5 D since his second year. No question. Probably still is.

But when he goes from being Adam Fox to Larry Murphy, what now? Larry Murphy was a great player. But he wasnt really an anchor 1D. Are they gonna appropriately slot Adam Fox as he declines to Larry Murphy or are they gonna keep acting he's still Adam Fox?

I'd rather get in front of that than see the team ignore the decline until they can't. Sue me.
Hockey sense doesn't max out like a stat in an RPG. I'm willing to bet, if we shut him down and he has a good recovery and a full off-season training, next year will be a bad look for the trade Fox crowd. The only thing you get in front of trading him now is probably just his best years. Just like McDonagh. He's 26. Haha.
 
As leader of the trade Fox club my opinion is this: the foot speed thing is real and it matters more than anything else Hockey is often a game of inches and seconds or even half seconds. Multiple half seconds differences compound into goals. Happens every day.

Guys get older, their skating declines, but their IQ and anticipation improve from experience so they stay effective. Tale as old as time, literally thousands of examples.

What happens when a guy who is already 100/100 in IQ and anticipation loses something physically? What does he use as compensation? That's my big concern.

Adam Fox has been a perennial top 5 D since his second year. No question. Probably still is.

But when he goes from being Adam Fox to Larry Murphy, what now? Larry Murphy was a great player. But he wasnt really an anchor 1D. Are they gonna appropriately slot Adam Fox as he declines to Larry Murphy or are they gonna keep acting he's still Adam Fox?

I'd rather get in front of that than see the team ignore the decline until they can't. Sue me.
this should be a wake up call to him. At the least he needs to be working hard to make sure that decline is delayed. Ideally he really should be looking to incrementally improve physically, year over year but he's guaranteed $66.5M....

The best player in the universe trains like he is fighting to make the team/stay in the league.... our guys are content with where they're at and their guaranteed contracts
 
this should be a wake up call to him. At the least he needs to be working hard to make sure that decline is delayed. Ideally he really should be looking to incrementally improve physically, year over year but he's guaranteed $66.5M....

The best player in the universe trains like he is fighting to make the team/stay in the league.... our guys are content with where they're at and their guaranteed contracts

Does McDavid train that hard?

I know he puts in some work, but I’ve never heard him referred to as some work out warrior.
 
the "Fox shoulda trained harder this offseason" crowd forgetting he had to let his knee injury heal and he only had like 3 months
I think this is the biggest reason why he isnt himself this year. I would suspect he spent most of the offseason rehabbing and just getting healthy.

He was really banged up last year
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad