Speculation: Roster Building thread - Part XVII - (TDL is March 7th)

[lakeshirts37]

The teams best defensemen may have a serious injury and the first thought of a few here is to say “see, he’s injured again”

Some of you suck ass lol

whats the proper response? send him flowers and mourn his injury?

 

[McRanger92]

I guess

They’re probably asking for Schneider in that deal I assume

Id consider that. McLeod is one of the fastest skaters in the league.

Jim Cerny making a good point on twitter about Leetch's injury that put the kibosh on the 92-93 Rangers. Lots of parallel's between this season and that one.

 

[LokiDog]

That's fine w me, nothing offensive there.

I think your earlier discussions of the player have some interesting spaces for exploration. Like just you posting those player cards, presumably making the point that Fox is far from unanimously seen as a top-tier defender...

First of all, he still grades out overall better than every player you posted aside from Makar and Hughes whom no one has said Fox is better than. So it seems like you're now trying to argue in two different directions at once:

Either Dom's model here captures defensive impact accurately and Fox is a worse defender than Makar, Hughes, Morrissey and Heiskenen (while still being a net positive overall, worth saying).

Or, Dom's model does not accurately capture the players overall impact because it would say that Fox IS in fact a top 5 defenseman in the world THIS season.

If course the third option is that you think there's profound issues with the offensive evaluation, which id be curious to hear. And then there's the fourth, that you think it's all bunk, in which case why introduce it?

There's room for really interesting conversation about the models, about what "defensive impact" is, and much more, but instead, as so often happens, the "conversation" is still-born bc people are stuck arguing about how they would personally write a list, essentially what overall a player should be in NHL 25.

You used those screen caps. I included Lindgren's because... Well aren't you at least curious as to how Fox, being not only slow and small, but also spending 2/3 of his 5v5 minutes with a player with Lindgren's outsized negative impact by the same model... I mean how do you make sense of that difference? Fox spent 29% of his 5v5 minutes with K'Andre this year and the goalies saved 1% more of the shots than when it's lindgren-Fox. Just for further context Miller himself has a net -2.8 defensive rating on those cards!

I partially used the player cards because they’re so often used in the opposite direction - I’m not a proponent of them, personally. I don’t necessarily have a problem with the model - and I don’t have a problem with Fox grading out as a better net positive than the other two (I can’t confirm or deny top 5 because I only ran 5 players). I’m fine with the notion that his offensive contributions are significant enough to have him top 5 in overall impact and I’m also positive that if I started running all the D men I can think of he won’t be top ~20-30 defensively. That means his offensive contribution is huge and enough to still make him a significant net positive, but also lends credibility to the conversation that he’s not as effective in the D zone as some seem to think. Does that mean you throw him away? No, as I said, some people advocate for a full rebuild, and there’s some merit to it, and in that scenario it makes sense to move him. That’s not the same thing as banishing him because he suddenly sucks. But it also doesn’t mean I can’t state that I don’t believe Fox is a particularly great (didnt say good) DEFENDER. He’s a great defenseman because of his overall impact, but it is my opinion that his physical limitations show themselves more significantly in the defensive zone where he is a good but not great player. World class offensively, good defensively. That shouldn’t offend people, but some - no names nor pointed fingers - take issue to any bad word said against him because he CHOSE us and of course, he’s the best player we’ve had since Leetch.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

It's not hate. We discuss every little thing about every player. However, if you mention Adam Fox, then it's hate. Every player is fair game except for Fox?

Dan Rosen and Vince made those comments about Fox. All of them are true. Other American D have surpassed Fox on the U.S. depth chart. Did you watch the games? There are other American D coming along for next year. Fox seems to have trouble when the games become fast and physical. It's been true the last two playoff appearances. Fox looked like a fish out of water in the 4 Nations. He does look slower. Who is this ideal mythical partner for Fox? He needs to be big and physical. He needs to be able to skate well. He needs to be a good defender too. Fox is not one of top 3 D in the league.

You Fox people are not being objective. If Fox played for the Devils, nearly everyone on this board would point out every flaw. Fox plays for the Rangers and some of us should bury our heads in the sand pretending everything is fine.


Pat Flatley.

Because this board doesn't cream itself over Jack Hughes.

 

[TheDirtyH]

Id consider that. McLeod is one of the fastest skaters in the league.

Jim Cerny making a good point on twitter about Leetch's injury that put the kibosh on the 92-93 Rangers. Lots of parallel's between this season and that one.

If Schneider is as highly sought after as he seems to be, I think you ask for some draft capital or prospects from Buffalo in addition to McCleod and it's a fine deal.

Buffalo may very well end up with the better player overall. I could see Schneider really thriving there with their attacking style and strong LHD.

But, Rangers win the deal for themselves if they get a player who can push the pace, play good defensive, from the center position. And restock the cupboards at the same time.

 

[McRanger92]

If Schneider is as highly sought after as he seems to be, I think you ask for some draft capital or prospects from Buffalo in addition to McCleod and it's a fine deal.

Buffalo may very well end up with the better player overall. I could see Schneider really thriving there with their attacking style and strong LHD.

But, Rangers win the deal for themselves if they get a player who can push the pace, play good defensive, from the center position. And restock the cupboards at the same time.

Byram and McLeod

 

[JimmyG89]

If the Sabres are looking to move McLeod, you need to be in on him. That's a legit 3C and might even be a legit 2C at this point. Edmonton really underused him and the Sabres probably don't know how to use him.

His style is suited for the playoffs. He has the wheels to keep up and can grind too. Reminds me of Antoine Vermette, who was always underrated.

 

[lakeshirts37]

That’s why I wouldn’t mind Chychrun. His shot/goal scoring and mobility playing with Fox

Chychrun Fox
KAM Borgen
Vaak/Maata Schneider

I think its almost a certainty that Chychrun resigns in Washington. That cap hit is going to start with an 8

 

[NickyFotiu]

Can both things not be true? My eye test tells me Fox IS small, slow & not physical enough, but he's also a very good defender.

More than 2 things can even be true. Fox can be weak on defense in some aspects and good at others.

 

[will1066]

Wouldn't that make him Ludwedel?

Under rated

 

[will1066]

 

[lakeshirts37]

shut Fox down for the season. Let him heal up, and then this summer get him on an intense workout program + skating with barb underhill. This guy needs to step up his training.

 

[17futurecap]

Just make Smith a scratch if Miller is over his illness, he’s got no future here, and will hopefully be gone in a week for whatever crappy mid round pick he’s returning.

 

[TheDirtyH]

I partially used the player cards because they’re so often used in the opposite direction - I’m not a proponent of them, personally. I don’t necessarily have a problem with the model - and I don’t have a problem with Fox grading out as a better net positive than the other two (I can’t confirm or deny top 5 because I only ran 5 players). I’m fine with the notion that his offensive contributions are significant enough to have him top 5 in overall impact and I’m also positive that if I started running all the D men I can think of he won’t be top ~20-30 defensively. That means his offensive contribution is huge and enough to still make him a significant net positive, but also lends credibility to the conversation that he’s not as effective in the D zone as some seem to think. Does that mean you throw him away? No, as I said, some people advocate for a full rebuild, and there’s some merit to it, and in that scenario it makes sense to move him. That’s not the same thing as banishing him because he suddenly sucks. But it also doesn’t mean I can’t state that I don’t believe Fox is a particularly great (didnt say good) DEFENDER. He’s a great defenseman because of his overall impact, but it is my opinion that his physical limitations show themselves more significantly in the defensive zone where he is a good but not great player. World class offensively, good defensively. That shouldn’t offend people, but some - no names nor pointed fingers - take issue to any bad word said against him because he CHOSE us and of course, he’s the best player we’ve had since Leetch.

But this is the point where the environment means something isn't it?

Without deciding on the merits of this or any other model, let's just accept it provisionally, for conversation's sake.

You may very well find 20-30 defensemen with a higher positive defensive rating than Fox (you might not, but assuming you can), isn't it significant that Fox has a positive defensive rating at all when he has played 91% of his 5v5 minutes with two players with extremely negative defensive ratings?

And wouldn't it mean something to you to look not just at those 20-30 hypothetical defensemen with higher defensive ratings than Fox, but at the partners they share the ice with?

How is it possible that Fox could play 91% of the time with a player worse defensively (by this rating) than Miro Heiskenen is good defensively, and the random leftover minutes made up of 0 players with a positive defensive rating--How could it be possible for all of that to be true, that Fox does not spend a minute of 5v5 ice time with another player with a positive defensive rating, and is not himself a good defender, AND he has a positive defensive rating.

Of course, whatever, you're entitled to your opinion, but I think there's a lot of holes here worth investigating.

Boris Zubov kind of nailed it IMO.

 

[duhmetreE]

View attachment 983799
Really, really excellent player.

An under the radar guy who will become a big name if he ends up on the right team, and then get overpaid on the following contract.

Would love to get him before that.

I’ve been all about him. Exact player we need

Don’t think we have the pieces to get him though

 

[Machinehead]

whats the proper response? send him flowers and mourn his injury?

Flowers would be a nice gesture.

 

[Gordon Bombay]

Lindgren/Vodka getting almost 20 mins should be a riot

 

[McRanger92]

Country club memberships need to be revoked

 

[SA16]

Country club memberships need to be revoked

I guess he forgot that Panarin is a right handed shot that plays LW

 

[chris kontos]

lets go jimmy vesey!
but seriously i highly recommend any trade deals the rangers might be contemplating with the la kings and thier upper management team. the gm rob blake has completed masterpieces such as the 3 for 1 pierre luc dubois deal and a lesser known totally brain dead move of aquiring bozo fiala (a winger better suited to the ice capades than the nhl) for no less than brock faber!
the kings in any transaction are meat on the table and asking to be completely taken advantage of. most importantly they have extra d men and are willing to deal

 

[HonestGabe]

What would a McLeod + Byram package look like?

 

[McRanger92]

I guess he forgot that Panarin is a right handed shot that plays LW

Panarin can't switch sides anyway because his pull up at the blueline trick would be neutralized

 

[LokiDog]

But this is the point where the environment means something isn't it?

Without deciding on the merits of this or any other model, let's just accept it provisionally, for conversation's sake.

You may very well find 20-30 defensemen with a higher positive defensive rating than Fox (you might not, but assuming you can), isn't it significant that Fox has a positive defensive rating at all when he has played 91% of his 5v5 minutes with two players with extremely negative defensive ratings?

And wouldn't it mean something to you to look not just at those 20-30 hypothetical defensemen with higher defensive ratings than Fox, but at the partners they share the ice with?

How is it possible that Fox could play 91% of the time with a player worse defensively (by this rating) than Miro Heiskenen is good defensively, and the random leftover minutes made up of 0 players with a positive defensive rating--How could it be possible for all of that to be true, that Fox does not spend a minute of 5v5 ice time with another player with a positive defensive rating, and is not himself a good defender, AND he has a positive defensive rating.

Of course, whatever, you're entitled to your opinion, but I think there's a lot of holes here worth investigating.

Boris Zubov kind of nailed it IMO.

But Boris agrees with me almost to the letter (based on our own conversations, my assumption reading his post about eye test plus stats is that when he said “defender” he meant player who is a defenseman, if I’m wrong I apologize). It’s not only about what those charts say, it’s also the eye test, and my eye test has never told me that Fox was an exceptional defensive zone defender. Again, I didn’t say not good. I said not exceptional, in his own end only. So that’s me combining my eye test and the analytics. But, because I also believe everything you’re saying is valid and I’m sitting in a hospital room with the lady because she had to be admitted for dehydration and vomiting (she’s pregnant - turns out she has flu on top of the usual nausea, which I am now developing all the symptoms of) with nothing better to do, I’ll look up as many D as I can think of and where their partners rank and report back.

 

[JimmyG89]

Lindgren/Vodka getting almost 20 mins should be a riot

I've had this combo for about 20 minutes and it usually ends up in the restroom.

 

[Mandar]

The irony of K'Andre in a no-contact jersey....oh, the irony.