Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XL

[Shesterkybomb]

Well, he has 2 options here. And some leverage in negotiations. He could technically sign a 1-year ELC, play a game this season and be RFA in the off-season. If he signs and plays next year, he would be UFA in 2021.

I don't think he can play this year if they don't play regular season games isnt that right?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I don't think he can play this year if they don't play regular season games isnt that right?

Correct. He is ineligible for the play offs as he was not on a team's reserve list at the deadline. So, only reg season.

Something else. Here is Mikko Lehtonen celebrating with a then not yet drafted Lias Andersson after winning the SHL final

 

[True Blue]

All it does is normalize the ice time so you can compare players and not have that as a factor...it does not project or tell you anything. If you're extrapolating data you're taking known data, assuming a function which is generally considered linear, and seeing what happens as you go outside the data set. That is highly prone to error.

It is no different than taking a players batting average in baseball. You don't just look at players total number of hits. Then you can't compare guys who have vastly different number of at bats. Or a QB's completion percentage in football. You can't just compare completions if one guy has thrown 100 more passes than another. Or like, and I'm not a basketball fan, but isn't the DEFAULT stat for pretty much everything in basketball per game?

You are eliminating a variable. You are pretending that all factors would remain constant and then projecting it out to "normalize". The reality is that you have no idea of who well or poorly a player would perform had said player actually played more minutes. You are making an assumption.

I am not saying that the metric is not a useful stat, it is. But utilizing it as the sole piece of evidence can lead to misleading results.

With regard to your baseball example, yes one cannot simply look at hits. But nor can one simply look at batting average. If you are one of these specialty platoon players who is a lefty and murders right handed pitching but cannot do anything against left handed pitching and as such only play against righties, chances are your batting average will appear to be fantastic and the at-bats will be lower. But one cannot simply take that batting average and presume that it would remain fantastic with more playing time. It would be opposite as the batting average would go down once you needed to face left handers.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

I feel like scoring 17 goals as a dman in the KHL is a sign of dominance in that league. A signing of this caliber has nothing to do with the Rangers being awake and everything to do with being able to promise him a PP spot.

 

[SA16]

You are eliminating a variable. You are pretending that all factors would remain constant and then projecting it out to "normalize". The reality is that you have no idea of who well or poorly a player would perform had said player actually played more minutes. You are making an assumption.

I am not saying that the metric is not a useful stat, it is. But utilizing it as the sole piece of evidence can lead to misleading results.

With regard to your baseball example, yes one cannot simply look at hits. But nor can one simply look at batting average. If you are one of these specialty platoon players who is a lefty and murders right handed pitching but cannot do anything against left handed pitching and as such only play against righties, chances are your batting average will appear to be fantastic and the at-bats will be lower. But one cannot simply take that batting average and presume that it would remain fantastic with more playing time. It would be opposite as the batting average would go down once you needed to face left handers.

My assumption is that most competent players will play will with Panarin. The reason for this is based on actual data. There are no assumptions in the data. I am not assuming that Panarin would score 97 5v5 pts in 1200 minutes with Chtyil because he happens to have 4.84 pts/60 with him so far. That would be an extrapolation and that would be wrong.

Well you shouldn't look at batting average at all because it's a terrible stat but that's besides the point but yes of course what you say is correct.

 

[Thirty One]

In his situation, one year to prove your NHL worth before hopefully a big UFA payday, I'd be prioritizing teams that offer a better chance at PP minutes than we do for him.

 

[LOFIN]

I feel like scoring 17 goals as a dman in the KHL is a sign of dominance in that league. A signing of this caliber has nothing to do with the Rangers being awake and everything to do with being able to promise him a PP spot.

Obviously his scoring hasn't been like that on the previous seasons, but he has definately been a steady #1 pairing D because of his defensive abilities for many years now. Will be interesting to see how it translates to the NHL.

 

[Tawnos]

In his situation, one year to prove your NHL worth before hopefully a big UFA payday, I'd be prioritizing teams that offer a better chance at PP minutes than we do for him.

On the other hand, the left side of the D is wide open for him to have a shot at a lot of ES minutes.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

On the other hand, the left side of the D is wide open for him to have a shot at a lot of ES minutes.

Lehtonen-Trouba
Lindgren-Fox
Smith-DeAngelo

Staal sent home

 

[Tawnos]

Lehtonen-Trouba
Lindgren-Fox
Smith-DeAngelo

Staal sent home

I still have hope that our 22-year old, 3rd year pro LD will take a spot too.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I still have hope that our 22-year old, 3rd year pro LD will take a spot too.

Smith can play wing on our 3rd line then

 

[Vitto79]

Lehtonen looks like a fit on LD. Also Kakko could use a familiar face

 

[Tawnos]

Smith can play wing on our 3rd line then

No he can't. Maybe 4th line.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Lehtonen is already rumored to NJD

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

No he can't. Maybe 4th line.

I should have said "Smith will be wing on our 3rd line then"

Lehtonen is already rumored to NJD

Like Panarin was rumoured to sign with NYI? Who knows. Until they officially announce it, anything is possible.

 

[True Blue]

I still have hope that our 22-year old, 3rd year pro LD will take a spot too.

You mean Hajek? I have the same hope but he showed so little last year.

No he can't. Maybe 4th line.

I actually would not have an issue with Smith being the 4th line LW.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Played with Georgiev in Turku, with Kakko last year, won a championship with Lias in his draft year. Knows Eloranta. This screams "Rangers signing" to me. One of the best EU free agents available. And a lot of connections to NYR already.

Since he is 26, ELC rules would apply so a no-risk cheap signing

I hope this happens. Rangers haven signed a European free agent yet playing in Europe.

 

[RangersFan1994]

I hope Rangers are awake here

I hope he chooses to sign with the Rangers. They need an upgrade on the LD pair

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

He isn't going to sign here.

These guys almost always choose a situation where they can walk in and play right away.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

He isn't going to sign here.

These guys almost always choose a situation where they can walk in and play right away.

We still have not replaced Skjei. He can step right in

 

[Kendo]

Re: "Extrapolation"

P/60 is only literally extrapolation if the player has played under 60 total minutes.

"Existing trends will continue," "project over a longer period of time," and "unobserved interval," are the key phrases in the three definitions posted.

Averaging to a baseline interval is only extrapolation if the available interval is less than the baseline.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

We still have not replaced Skjei. He can step right in

He's got like 2389203920938230923 other LD to compete with on the depth chart.

He's likely going to want to go to a situation where he's pretty much guaranteed to step in and play. Those bottom of the barrel teams mentioned before offer a better opportunity to do so.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Lehtonen would be a cool signing but I agree he's got a better chance to play immediately elsewhere.

There's effectively one spot on LD up for grabs next season, and they're are a ton of guys vying for it

 

[charliemurphy]

He's got like 2389203920938230923 other LD to compete with on the depth chart.

He's likely going to want to go to a situation where he's pretty much guaranteed to step in and play. Those bottom of the barrel teams mentioned before offer a better opportunity to do so.

Name 3 LDs on the roster or in the system who can step in and play and would upgrade the defense.
Did I miss a few things while being quarantined? Did TDA move to the left side for good? Has Miller, Robertson and Jones taken the next step? Don't tell me Hajek and Rykov are blocking him. If it was RD then your argument would hold up but LD... awfully thin short term.

 

[Trxjw]

If the Rangers are trying to make the playoffs next year they very well might be more concerned with trying to find a LHD with an NHL pedigree. Found money is great, and Lehtonen could very well end up as a top-4 NHL D, but if he's their big-swing and he flops then they've done nothing to address the biggest weakness on the roster.

I see him joining a team with zero expectations and a path to walk onto the NHL roster even if he's mediocre at best to start the year. Devils or Wings make the most sense.