Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part LXX

[Edge]

Out of all forwards who have played 1,000 minutes the last two years
player B also ranks:

1. CA60 534/534
2. SA60 534/534
3. xGA60 534/534
3. GA60 527/534

Probably shouldn't just leave those out because their points are similar.

I get that.

It doesn't change my original premise though.

 

[SA16]

I get that.

It doesn't change my original premise though.

Well your premise was that they are close because their stats (i.e. points) are similar. That's only true if you only look at a few stats. People call him barely a 4th liner/NHL caliber player, myself included, and I think when you're literally dead last in the league among 534 players in three stats that somewhat measure defensive play that is a bit of an issue.

I should correct my numbers though. I thought I was looking at forwards only. I forgot to filter that. The sample is 340 total forwards and his ranks of course remain dead last in three of them.

It's also not only about the numbers it's about how they look. You've seen plenty of instances of Chytil making skilled plays up the wings and scoring (goal against Boston I think) and you never get any of that at all from Howden. One guy shows flashes of making big plays on occasion that makes you think he could become a very good player if he can do that more consistently as he does that. The other does not.

 

[Edge]

Well your premise was that they are close because their stats (i.e. points) are similar. That's only true if you only look at a few stats. People call him barely a 4th liner/NHL caliber player, myself included, and I think when you're literally dead last in the league among 534 players in three stats that somewhat measure defensive play that is a bit of an issue.

I should correct my numbers though. I thought I was looking at forwards only. I forgot to filter that. The sample is 340 total forwards and his ranks of course remain dead last in three of them.

It's also not only about the numbers it's about how they look. You've seen plenty of instances of Chytil making skilled plays up the wings and scoring (goal against Boston I think) and you never get any of that at all from Howden. One guy shows flashes of making big plays on occasion that makes you think he could become a very good player if he can do that more consistently as he does that. The other does not.

That's close, but not quite what I was getting at.

"Make no mistake, Player A has the higher ceiling and I wouldn't trade him for Player B. However, to your point, I hesitate to proclaim that Player A is on the brink of becoming a second line center, let alone a first line center. Likewise, I am hesitant to proclaim that Player B will be lucky if he can stick in a bottom six role.

I often feel like both players are pushed too far in opposite directions."

And to that point, I still think it holds true.

I think Chytil has shown flashes of something, but he also has long spurts where I have to check to see where he went. And considering the skill/talent differential, and the expectations, I don't really consider that a good thing.

If anything, what you just pointed out makes those stretches even harder to ignore.

 

[kovazub94]

I think I calculated that if Player B played the same amount of games it worked out to a 10 goal, 5 point difference.

Make no mistake, Player A has the higher ceiling and I wouldn't trade him for Player B. However, to your point, I hesitate to proclaim that Player A is on the brink of becoming a second line center, let alone a first line center. Likewise, I am hesitant to proclaim that Player B will be lucky if he can stick in a bottom six role.

I often feel like both players are pushed too far in opposite directions.

My timetable for player A is that he's at least a year away from becoming a statistically "generic" 2C and then probably another 2 years to reach this 1C ceiling I have in mind. Having this difference in age I think player B should be performing AT LEAST as a strong 4C this upcoming season.

 

[Edge]

My timetable for player A is that he's at least a year away from becoming a statistically "generic" 2C and then probably another 2 years to reach this 1C ceiling I have in mind. Having this difference in age I think player B should be performing AT LEAST as a strong 4C this upcoming season.

I personally think Chytil will have a solid career, but probably won't match some of the more optimistic hopes for him --- unless he happens to find chemistry with the right players. Then he'll get a boost.

But I'm not quite convinced he's that guy on his own.

 

[SA16]

That's close, but not quite what I was getting at.

"Make no mistake, Player A has the higher ceiling and I wouldn't trade him for Player B. However, to your point, I hesitate to proclaim that Player A is on the brink of becoming a second line center, let alone a first line center. Likewise, I am hesitant to proclaim that Player B will be lucky if he can stick in a bottom six role.

I often feel like both players are pushed too far in opposite directions."

And to that point, I still think it holds true.

I think Chytil has shown flashes of something, but he also has long spurts where I have to check to see where he went. And considering the skill/talent differential, and the expectations, I don't really consider that a good thing.

If anything, what you just pointed out makes those stretches even harder to ignore.

I would consider that mostly expected for a 19-20 year old in the NHL who was never seen as an elite prospect. Howden shows flashes of nothing. My long term expectations for both are that Chytil will become a 2C/3C tweener type (perfectly fine with how good the wings are) and that Howden will be out of the league in a few years.

 

[Edge]

I would consider that mostly expected for a 19-20 year old in the NHL who was never seen as an elite prospect. Howden shows flashes of nothing. My long term expectations for both are that Chytil will become a 2C/3C tweener type (perfectly fine with how good the wings are) and that Howden will be out of the league in a few years.

And that's certainly possible. I just don't see it as being quite so "pronounced" at this point in time --- for lack of a better word.

 

[Fitzy]

I don't agree with Vince's cynical take on this offseason.

Part of a rebuild (Arguably the biggest part) is counting on many of your young players to improve from season to season, especially when they are still 21-22-23 years old. If we've seen the absolute best from Fox, Chytil, Kakko already, this isn't going to be a team competing for the cup.

Part of this upcoming season depends on Shesty's goaltending and health, but a HUGE amount depends on what players take additional steps forward, and what ones possibly suffer sophomore slumps.

ADA being tested on the left is also another big 'story to watch' this season in terms of how much patience the coach has with his learning curve.

 

[Avery16]

Quenneville/Samuelsson is an enviable duo.

 

[kovazub94]

I personally think Chytil will have a solid career, but probably won't match some of the more optimistic hopes for him --- unless he happens to find chemistry with the right players. Then he'll get a boost.

But I'm not quite convinced he's that guy on his own.

I’m probably one of the most optimistic about Chytil’s eventual level around here but I’m seeing a high 50s to 60-point center. Those who don’t see a 2C here might be forgetting / not realizing that mid-40s and up would get him there.

 

[Edge]

I’m probably one of the most optimistic about Chytil’s eventual level around here but I’m seeing a high 50s to 60-point center. Those who don’t see a 2C here might be forgetting / not realizing that mid-40s and up would get him there.

I could see 50-60 points.

But I also think the league is shifting a little bit.

A few years ago I think it was easier to point to a 50-60 point player and say they were potentially in that first, or 1A/1B type territory.

I think the league's "expectations" are moving that needle up a little bit. I think that 50-60 range is probably seen as very good second line value on a top contending team, maybe placeholder first line production on a middle of the pack team that would be looking for a long-term upgrade. But I think that needle will continue to trend upward though.

I think in a few years you might find that a 50-55 point center is firmly in the second line territory, with that 45-50 point range starting to trend into tweener territory for your top teams.

 

[egelband]

I could see 50-60 points.

But I also think the league is shifting a little bit.

A few years ago I think it was easier to point to a 50-60 point player and say they were potentially in that first, or 1A/1B type territory.

I think the league's "expectations" are moving that needle up a little bit. I think that 50-60 range is probably seen as very good second line value on a top contending team, maybe placeholder first line production on a middle of the pack team that would be looking for a long-term upgrade. But I think that needle will continue to trend upward though.

I think in a few years you might find that a 50-55 point center is firmly in the second line territory, with that 45-50 point range starting to trend into tweener territory for your top teams.

I also think defense is becoming a bigger part of the general conversation. Defensive metrics are evolving, there’s more overall parity in skill, stopping scoring is just as important as scoring itself. So I think the requirements - particularly for the Top Six - are a bit more broad than maybe they were a while back. (Bottom Sixers were for a long time thought to be the defensive specialists). At least as far as the general population (like myself) sees it.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I personally think Chytil will have a solid career, but probably won't match some of the more optimistic hopes for him --- unless he happens to find chemistry with the right players. Then he'll get a boost.

But I'm not quite convinced he's that guy on his own.

I agree with you, and my biggest issue with his skill set in the now is that he isn't a person who dishes the puck well or shoots well and his game is more north south than east west. It's my biggest hangup against him being a replacement for Strome in the 2c spot, i don't think he compliments Panarin's patient approach to setting up and creating space with possesion. As much as people hate on Strome they are good at give and go's and reading off what each other is thinking. Personally i feel Chytil would be a better winger than center, a player who plays more like Kreider lite. Thats not to say im disappointed in the pick, i think we stole him but his play to this point has not convinced me he is close to being a 2c and maybe hasnt even convinced me he is a center at all. Maybe he grows into that but so far its not there.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Is the expectation that Tony is playing on the left side? Because I’ll believe it when I see it

 

[huerter]

points matter not at all

 

[Edge]

Is the expectation that Tony is playing on the left side? Because I’ll believe it when I see it

Internally there's still a sense of trepidation about that and I'm not convinced they view it as a long-term option. And that's as of two-days ago.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

points matter not at all

I’ll pass the information along. Thank you for everything you do.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I agree with you, and my biggest issue with his skill set in the now is that he isn't a person who dishes the puck well or shoots well and his game is more north south than east west. It's my biggest hangup against him being a replacement for Strome in the 2c spot, i don't think he compliments Panarin's patient approach to setting up and creating space with possesion. As much as people hate on Strome they are good at give and go's and reading off what each other is thinking.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your take on Chytil. It’s pretty accurate.

What I will say is players often times show the ability to adapt. A player like Dubinsky comes to mind with the adjustments he made in his game when he played with Jagr. Oddly enough, he was a similar age and size as Chytil.

We’re going to see some experiments this year like ADA playing on the left side, and possibly some tinkering with Panarin/Strome/Chytil. Shit very well might fail, but as a rebuilding team we have the luxury of testing various combos out.

 

[Edge]

I don’t necessarily disagree with your take on Chytil. It’s pretty accurate.

What I will say is players often times show the ability to adapt. A player like Dubinsky comes to mind with the adjustments he made in his game when he played with Jagr. Oddly enough, he was a similar age and size as Chytil.

We’re going to see some experiments this year like ADA playing on the left side, and possibly some tinkering with Panarin/Strome/Chytil. Shit very well might fail, but as a rebuilding team we have the luxury of testing various combos out.

I agree. I think the Rangers can, and should give certain things a look --- within reason.

Obviously, it's great if those experiments work out. But I do hope fans keep somewhat fair and realistic expectations as well.

This year does provide some luxury to try things out, but I do think it's worth noting that the Rangers might not have the appetite to experiment to the point of lowering the potential value of a player as well.

I'll use ADA as an example, just because he's top of mind in this thread. You might have him get a look at LD. But if the Rangers are not comfortable with what they see, it might not be a prolonged experiement. And I say that because I can already see the "it was only two games it needs more time" type comments. Those comments won't necessarily be without merit, but they might not align with the Rangers preference.

You might have a situation where the Rangers would prefer to leave ADA on the rightside, have him bring what he does, rather than lower his value and get him out synch on the left side. That's particularly important if they pursue maximizing his trade value.

Not saying that's what is destined to happen, but it is worth keeping in mind.

 

[NewLife]

So they hate Virtanen but they also just gave him 5M?

Was hella confused for two sec. Its over two years so somewhat ok I guess.

 

[Fitzy]

Was hella confused for two sec. Its over two years so somewhat ok I guess.

 

[bobbop]

Howden is a potential bottom 6 player ...maybe

Management already seems to think he is a definite bottom six player and I am sure they are hoping for even more. Remember, everyone develops as a different pace.

 

[aufheben]

Chytil I’m certain is going to have an NHL career but it’s difficult for me to predict how good he’ll be. I could see him panning our like Namestnikov, maybe a bit better.

 

[Fvital92]

When does training camp start? I know they want the seasson to begin in january, but didn't read about a date for training camp.

 

[Mikos87]

It's easy to get boxed in when you box yourself into the cells of spreadsheet or roster line-ups. I would think of the defense position moving even more towards more situational minutes.

EG: There's a tired unit out, you're entering the offensive zone with control. I would double shift Foxie and Tony every time I could. Shit I'd encourage letting Fox call those double shift minutes. Tony can keep his PP1 slot. Both guys tag up and reap.

Tony should be looking at Point. Top of the Key. Zone Entry. With and without the puck. Odd man rush. Point again 15 in, 10 in, 5 in from the net, let the second wave push, retreat/hold 5 out, 10 out depending on what you see. You'll push Wereneski for the goal title.

Foxie. Straight up collect son. 5v5 points gets more respect. Look and McKinnon & Rantanen on the half wall out there with Kakko. Their length makes the spacing almost undefendable. Add Touch passes. Murray/Jokic is another one. Denver cuts with a 3 & d (size/speed) and a man is in motion at the top of arc feet 45 degrees or more towards your goalie as that preventive layer.

Those cumulative routes work on skates. It's using motion & body positioning to create openings with time and space for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th wave (2nd whack at this point). Screens work best for the Step back 3 as both a goal or an apple in both sports. Weaponize the bank pass off the skate or foot. That'll create some lost checks. Hurts the guy less than a block shot, you're doing the homie a solid. Should get some Lady Byng points while getting on some Norris ballots.