Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part LXVIII

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

BPA on this board is just whoever’s ranked highest in like McKenzie’s list. Do people actually think that teams are taking a player they don’t consider to the “best” at that spot? Lol

 

[DutchShamrock]

It means their player evaluations are often times terrible and they have a long track record of that, and have really done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt when the get fixated on “their guy” in the draft.

Miller, Lundkvist, Chytil, Jones, Kravtsov, Robertson. Early rounds over the last few years. Guys they targeted. I see it a little more optimistically I guess.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Yeah, you're right, their recent late 1st round picks of K'Andre Miller, Filip Chytil, and Nils Lundkvist have really sucked.

None of them have proven anything. Only Chytil has played NHL games and it’s not like he’s lit the world on fire.

Since 2017 only on of their 1st rounders has done anything in either the AHL or NHL and that’s Chytil.

And I guess Keane too.

 

[Alluckks]

None of them have proven anything. Only Chytil has played NHL games and it’s not like he’s lit the world on fire.

Since 2017 only on of their 1st rounders has done anything in either the AHL or NHL and that’s Chytil.

This is a monstrously stupid position on your end.

If you wanted to just whine about stuff then just lead with that and we'll all know to leave you alone

 

[Alluckks]

Miller, Lundkvist, Chytil, Jones, Kravtsov, Robertson. Early rounds over the last few years. Guys they targeted. I see it a little more optimistically I guess.

No no no

You see, all the experts and analysts that have published articles crediting the Rangers with this stuff... yeah, that is all actually worthless

 

[smoneil]

Not really. They got the 2nd and 1st overall picks so the job was done for them. The only guy they picked who is a contributor is Chytil but he hasn’t been exactly a home run.

Even after all this rebuilding the team still hasn’t shown it can draft and develop well. The best homegrown skater we have is Kreider and he was drafted 11 years ago.

Chytil is 21. At that age, Ryan Callahan hadn't made his debut yet and wouldn't be a regular for another year or two. The same is true of Brandon Dubinsky, A.A., and Derek Stepan (and, since you brought him up, Kreider, who didn't become a regular until 23, and didn't "set the world on fire" until 25/26). The problem isn't that the Rangers screwed up the re-build--it's that you aren't giving these kids the time they need to finish developing. The early returns are significantly better than they were in years past. You literally have to go back to the early 90s teams to see the same level of high end young talent coming through the pipeline.

The re-build kind of started with the 2017 draft (where we didn't have much outside of the two first rounders--our next pick didn't come until round 4). It kicked off in earnest in 2018. Two of our three first rounders that year are in Wheeler's top 40 prospects league wide this year (the list that just came out, and includes players from the 2020 draft). The jury is out on the rest of the picks, but there have been positive signs for Pajuniemi. Regarding last year's draft, all three of our 2nd/3rd rounders had great showings in their D+1 years (Robertson, Hendricksson, Jones), and they turned one of their 1st rounders into Trouba.

Rebuilds don't happen overnight. They acquired the youth, but you need to give it time to develop. Chytil is likely set to take a big step this year or next. He's just the first of many, if you give them the time.

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

BPA on this board is just whoever’s ranked highest in like McKenzie’s list. Do people actually think that teams are taking a player they don’t consider to the “best” at that spot? Lol

My theory is that the Hurricanes don't actually have any scouts and they just use the Bobfather's list

 

[NYR]

This is false. Even if there is a cluster, the teams obviously have these guys ranked in some order.

If you think the best player available happened to be a center, okay thats fair. Taking a center that late in the 1st because you MIGHT need one in 2 years is flawed thinking, especially since most players you take in that range won't even be ready for NHL play by then.

This is false as well.
Each team has their own scouting staff and ranks players differently so any other team could've had a center easily ranked above Schneider.
Not saying I had any player ahead of Schneider bc I'm not that into following prospects but each team is different..

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Chytil is 21. At that age, Ryan Callahan hadn't made his debut yet and wouldn't be a regular for another year or two. The same is true of Brandon Dubinsky, A.A., and Derek Stepan. The problem isn't that the Rangers screwed up the re-build--it's that you aren't giving these kids the time they need to finish developing. The early returns are significantly better than they were in years past. You literally have to go back to the early 90s teams to see the same level of high end young talent coming through the pipeline.

The re-build kind of started with the 2017 draft (where we didn't have much outside of the two first rounders--our next pick didn't come until round 4). It kicked off in earnest in 2018. Two of our three first rounders that year are in Wheeler's top 40 prospects league wide this year (the list that just came out, and includes players from the 2020 draft). The jury is out on the rest of the picks, but there have been positive signs for Pajuniemi. Regarding last year's draft, all three of our 2nd/3rd rounders had great showings in their D+1 years (Robertson, Hendricksson, Jones), and they turned one of their 1st rounders into Trouba.

Rebuilds don't happen overnight. They acquired the youth, but you need to give it time to develop. Chytil is likely set to take a big step this year or next. He's just the first of many, if you give them the time.

Bottom line, I’m not saying they’re all busts, I’m just saying that they have not earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to drafting.

 

[NYSPORTS]

None of them have proven anything. Only Chytil has played NHL games and it’s not like he’s lit the world on fire.

Since 2017 only on of their 1st rounders has done anything in either the AHL or NHL and that’s Chytil.

And I guess Keane too.

they’re kids. Some are a few years removed from Senior Prom and few graduated after four yearS of college. None of these kids would have been drafted into the NFL yet.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

they’re kids. Some are a few years removed from Senior Prom and few graduated after four yearS of college. None of these kids would have been drafted into the NFL yet.

well this isn’t the NFL.
Kids play and succeed in the NHL all the time.

 

[smoneil]

Bottom line, I’m not saying they’re all busts, I’m just saying that they have not earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to drafting.

And my bottom line is that it is way too early to say one way or the other. I tend to think that--based on what we're seeing from these kids in their developmental leagues--they are coming along nicely. Is it possible most of them bust? Sure, I guess so. But you want to claim the team is bad at baking a cake because the cake isn't ready in 5 minutes. That's not really fair. It's like your gripe that Chytil isn't a Kreider yet. At the same age, Kreider couldn't hold a candle to what Chytil is doing. You're putting the judgement out there WELL before the evidence and you're ignoring the context to suit your narrative that the people running the team are inept.

 

[jay from jersey]

Yeah, you're right, their recent late 1st round picks of K'Andre Miller, Filip Chytil, and Nils Lundkvist have really sucked.

Mind as well add Skjei in there. He is a no. 4 nhl d-man. He returned a first himself since he doesn’t constitute a bad pick. Has the size and speed but never developed into diet McDonaugh after his very good 1st year and playoff showing

 

[egelband]

10 cups in 6 years?

Haha!

 

[NYSPORTS]

well this isn’t the NFL.
Kids play and succeed in the NHL all the time.

not that many at this early age. You know that.

Now i’ll back your history take of drafting from the Rangers. They’ve missed a ton and perhaps lottery wins make up for a lot. Good thing is, a Chytil would be banked on to be a first liner historically whereas he might not have to be awesome. The awesome has to come from Laf and Kappo. Fox was a gift and ADA, who had issues at many of our prospects age, has really developed offensively.

I think we’re in the best position we could have ever dreamed. A rebuild which was shocking to begin with has a heck of a foundation. Enjoy, it could be an aging Rangers team with cap issues we had for years after the Cup.

cheers

 

[smoneil]

well this isn’t the NFL.
Kids play and succeed in the NHL all the time.

Again, narrative that isn't supported by fact.

From the 2017 draft, only 8 players have played the equivalent of a full NHL season (82+ games). Only 8 players have scored 40+ points (equivalent to .5ppg, or an average contributor). Chytil is on both lists. Only 18 players from that draft have even played half an NHL season yet, and only 4 of those players were selected outside the first round.

From 2018? Only 19 players have even skated an NHL game. Only 4 of those 19 have played a full season, and they are LITERALLY the top four picks from that draft (positions you seem to discount as they were picks "made for" the teams, right?).

Only 5 players from last year have played in an NHL game. We have one of them. None of the 5 played particularly well.

Even going back to the 2016 draft, where our "top" pick was 3rd rounder Sean Day-- After that pick, only 21 players have managed to get into an NHL game. Only 3 have had more than a cup of coffee (Victor Mete, Maxime Lajoie, and Jesper Bratt).

You are upset that our kids drafted outside the top five aren't playing and/or dominating the NHL yet. Based on the data from the last 5 drafts, that just doesn't happen--in the NFL or the NHL.

You have a narrative. It isn't supported by anything. Let the kids develop.

 

[SA16]

BPA on this board is just whoever’s ranked highest in like McKenzie’s list. Do people actually think that teams are taking a player they don’t consider to the “best” at that spot? Lol

Isn’t McKenzies list largely crowdsourced from his talking to 10+ teams, understanding their lists, and then making his based off of that? If that’s the case we should expect his list to be better than any one individual teams.

 

[mike14]

My theory is that the Hurricanes don't actually have any scouts and they just use the Bobfather's list

I used to have two spreadsheets comparing the Rangers actual drafts with just taking the highest listed still available player on either Future Considerations or Hockey Prospects draft rankings. From around 2008-2015 the Rangers could have saved millions by firing their entire scouting department, just using a $40 draft guide and having a very similar ratio of players who 'made it'.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Again, narrative that isn't supported by fact.

From the 2017 draft, only 8 players have played the equivalent of a full NHL season (82+ games). Only 8 players have scored 40+ points (equivalent to .5ppg, or an average contributor). Chytil is on both lists. Only 18 players from that draft have even played half an NHL season yet, and only 4 of those players were selected outside the first round.

From 2018? Only 19 players have even skated an NHL game. Only 4 of those 19 have played a full season, and they are LITERALLY the top four picks from that draft (positions you seem to discount as they were picks "made for" the teams, right?).

Only 5 players from last year have played in an NHL game. We have one of them. None of the 5 played particularly well.

Even going back to the 2016 draft, where our "top" pick was 3rd rounder Sean Day-- After that pick, only 21 players have managed to get into an NHL game. Only 3 have had more than a cup of coffee (Victor Mete, Maxime Lajoie, and Jesper Bratt).

You are upset that our kids drafted outside the top five aren't playing and/or dominating the NHL yet. Based on the data from the last 5 drafts, that just doesn't happen--in the NFL or the NHL.

You have a narrative. It isn't supported by anything. Let the kids develop.

My “narrative” is the rangers haven’t been good at drafting. Just because we have a handful of guys who might be good doesn’t change that. Every team has players like that. Until they actually become hits the fact is the Rangers haven’t drafted well , ever , and that’s why all of our best players were acquired by trade or free agency.

which brings me back to my original point, that just because the Rangers scouts had a player ranked high doesn’t mean I should trust their evaluation, because they’ve been proven to be mistaken in that regard time and again.

 

[smoneil]

My “narrative” is the rangers haven’t been good at drafting. Just because we have a handful of guys who might be good doesn’t change that. Every team has players like that. Until they actually become hits the fact is the Rangers haven’t drafted well , ever , and that’s why all of our best players were acquired by trade or free agency.

which brings me back to my original point, that just because the Rangers scouts had a player ranked high doesn’t mean I should trust their evaluation, because they’ve been proven to be mistaken in that regard time and again.

You claim the Rangers have not been good at drafting during the rebuild. Your "evidence" is that only a couple of the picks outside the top 5 have cracked the team and that those who have cracked the team haven't dominated yet. I literally just showed you that those two things don't happen this early in a player's career, explaining that they need more time to develop. You choose to ignore that. You choose to ignore what players are doing in other leagues WHILE they develop. You do this because you came into this already having your view that the Rangers don't draft well.

When you ignore contradictory evidence and make claims about how things "should be" when, across the whole league that is NOT how they are, in order to make a claim? You have a narrative.

And again, regarding your original point, the Rangers--over the last 5 drafts (ie: the current group running the team)--have NOT been proven to be mistaken time and again. As I pointed out earlier (something else you ignored in the name of preserving your narrative), MANY of the Rangers picks in the last few drafts would go higher--some significantly so, like Lundkvist and Chytil--in a redraft.

 

[Chytilmania]

None of them have proven anything. Only Chytil has played NHL games and it’s not like he’s lit the world on fire.

Since 2017 only on of their 1st rounders has done anything in either the AHL or NHL and that’s Chytil.

And I guess Keane too.

Since 2017 there are like 10 first rounders that would be considered at or above Chytil and the majority were top 10 picks in 2017 and 18. Still too early on 2018 and we didn't have first round picks for 4 years. Heck even the 2016 draft there's only a handful of first rounders that have made an impact.

 

[effen]

I used to have two spreadsheets comparing the Rangers actual drafts with just taking the highest listed still available player on either Future Considerations or Hockey Prospects draft rankings. From around 2008-2015 the Rangers could have saved millions by firing their entire scouting department, just using a $40 draft guide and having a very similar ratio of players who 'made it'.

that's mostly because most players don't make it

 

[kovazub94]

well the Rangers’ BPA doesn’t necessarily mean the actual BPA as we very much know.

I have absolutely no idea what the hell your point is. Should the call Pittsburgh to get their BPA? Maybe Devils? Another team?One of the “insiders “ / talking heads?

Schneider was ranked 11-12 by the Rangers. We heard reports that some of the Western teams ( that closer to WHL) had him in their top-10. The Rangers got him at 19, 4th defenseman taken in the draft.

I guess maybe they should have call you to ask who’s your BPA.

 

[smoneil]

Since 2017 there are like 10 first rounders that would be considered at or above Chytil and the majority were top 10 picks in 2017 and 18. Still too early on 2018 and we didn't have first round picks for 4 years. Heck even the 2016 draft there's only a handful of first rounders that have made an impact.

I'd put that number closer to 6 or 7, and some of those are debatable. Hirshier, Pettersson, Heiskanen, and Makar are the definites. Robert Thomas, Nolan Patrick (due to his health issues), Suzuki and Necas are all maybes. There aren't really many others who have proven anything yet.

Editing to add that I just realized I mis-read your post. I thought you were talking solely about 2017, but you clearly were talking about 2017 and the drafts since then. My bad!

 

[Thirty One]

I used to have two spreadsheets comparing the Rangers actual drafts with just taking the highest listed still available player on either Future Considerations or Hockey Prospects draft rankings. From around 2008-2015 the Rangers could have saved millions by firing their entire scouting department, just using a $40 draft guide and having a very similar ratio of players who 'made it'.

Yeah, but then there’s shipping...