Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part LXVIII

[Rongomania]

Someone asked me to update this when the signings trickle in:

The dead cap KINGS

 

[Thirty One]

The dead cap KINGS

You don't have to be the best at everything, but you should try to be the best at something.

 

[gravey9]

The only thing I can remember remotely close is circa 1990 with Leetch/Richter/Amonte/Weight/Turcotte

Add Kovalev and Zubov.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

You got to draft BPA.

There’s no single BPA that late in the 1st unless there’s a huge faller. There’s usually a cluster of players in that tier who are comparable. I would have liked a Center as well.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

There’s no single BPA that late in the 1st unless there’s a huge faller. There’s usually a cluster of players in that tier who are comparable. I would have liked a Center as well.

Its where the team has the player ranked. I believe @Edge said the Rangers had Schneider ranked 11 or 12. He was their BPA.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

There’s no single BPA that late in the 1st unless there’s a huge faller. There’s usually a cluster of players in that tier who are comparable. I would have liked a Center as well.

This is false. Even if there is a cluster, the teams obviously have these guys ranked in some order.

If you think the best player available happened to be a center, okay thats fair. Taking a center that late in the 1st because you MIGHT need one in 2 years is flawed thinking, especially since most players you take in that range won't even be ready for NHL play by then.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

F*ck, I think I like JJ now after reading that.

It's true, the office knows him and we have young D's who will be on or on/off the team this season. Oldest vets back there were Smith and Troubda.

The problem Rangers fans have is that the know the coaching staff will lean on him way too much, instead of using him as a 6/7 like they claim

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Its where the team has the player ranked. I believe @Edge said the Rangers had Schneider ranked 11 or 12. He was their BPA.

well the Rangers’ BPA doesn’t necessarily mean the actual BPA as we very much know.

 

[Kovalev27]

I don't think anyone is expecting full buildings by spring, it's just they need to maximize as many fans as possible to mitigate losses. Whether it's 75% capacity, 50% capacity, 30% capacity etc they simply cannot operate without fans for an extended period. They don't have the TV contracts the MLB or NFL have to make it viable which is why you keep hearing the possibility of no season at all which I personally can't see happening and is a doomsday scenario. Playing 48 games with some percentage of fans is much preferable to playing 60-70 something with the first 20 games having even less or no fans from the league's POV. Plus by kicking the can down the road, the world will hopefully be in better shape in terms of therapeutics and vaccines.

I mean, we literally just saw this with MLB. The owners nearly punted the season and came in at an absolute max of 60 games because more games with no fans would annihilate them financially. And that league is in much better shape financially.

does it look like anything is getting better anytime soon? We just hit the worst case recording since July. 69k cases yesterday.

the red states will continue to stay open to some limited capacity While infections climb but the northern, western states, and Canada aren’t going to open up buildings. To any major capacity difference between December 15 and Feb 15.

And half the country Will refuse to take the vaccine according Polling data. You have a tv contract to write soon. If you kill the league sitting out a yesr right before you start negotiating you’ll set yourself back a decade. The nhl did this already and ended up with a crazy hard cap and The outdoor tv channel.

 

[NYRFAN218]

does it look like anything is getting better anytime soon? We just hit the worst case recording since July. 69k cases yesterday.

the red states will continue to stay open to some limited capacity While infections climb but the northern, western states, and Canada aren’t going to open up buildings. To any major capacity difference between December 15 and Feb 15.

And half the country Will refuse to take the vaccine according Polling data. You have a tv contract to write soon. If you kill the league sitting out a yesr right before you start negotiating you’ll set yourself back a decade. The nhl did this already and ended up with a crazy hard cap and The outdoor tv channel.

Which is why I don't see them not playing the season and it's the same reason why the MLB owners ultimately caved and took their losses for the year as opposed to canning the season entirely. But playing an additional 20 games starting in December will only add to the owners losses in a year where they're getting pummeled and doesn't really change anything. Do we think the NHL is going to get less of a TV deal next year because they played 20 less games per team due to a global pandemic?

And we absolutely can see a difference in buildings over those 2 months. Pfizer and Moderna will in all likelihood apply for emergency use authorization in the US by the end of November and barring setbacks will probably be approved. Vaccine production and distribution will ramp up and how much of the country refuses to take a vaccine is really irrelevant at this given point since we won't have enough of the vaccine to distribute to cover everyone that wants it for this season anyway. Can we cover higher-risk populations with the emergency use vaccine and thus allow things to open up? Is a 2nd (3rd?) wave running now and through the next few months and potentially die down after? If there is a dip, will that allow local municipalities to open buildings? We have no idea what the city, country, or world is going to look like in February which is the problem. But we have a better idea of what December will look like given it's closer in proximity and it shows zero capacity buildings in the leagues biggest money making markets.

 

[Rongomania]

The problem Rangers fans have is that the know the coaching staff will lean on him way too much, instead of using him as a 6/7 like they claim

Yeah, please Quinn, do not 'Staal' him

 

[Kovalev27]

Which is why I don't see them not playing the season and it's the same reason why the MLB owners ultimately caved and took their losses for the year as opposed to canning the season entirely. But playing an additional 20 games starting in December will only add to the owners losses in a year where they're getting pummeled and doesn't really change anything. Do we think the NHL is going to get less of a TV deal next year because they played 20 less games per team due to a global pandemic?

And we absolutely can see a difference in buildings over those 2 months. Pfizer and Moderna will in all likelihood apply for emergency use authorization in the US by the end of November and barring setbacks will probably be approved. Vaccine production and distribution will ramp up and how much of the country refuses to take a vaccine is really irrelevant at this given point since we won't have enough of the vaccine to distribute to cover everyone that wants it for this season anyway. Can we cover higher-risk populations with the emergency use vaccine and thus allow things to open up? Is a 2nd (3rd?) wave running now and through the next few months and potentially die down after? If there is a dip, will that allow local municipalities to open buildings? We have no idea what the city, country, or world is going to look like in February which is the problem. But we have a better idea of what December will look like given it's closer in proximity and it shows zero capacity buildings in the leagues biggest money making markets.

I’m sorry but I have no idea how you can guesstimate when these pharma companies are going to request emergency use of the vaccines which has nothing to do with athletes or the general public. Most signs point to 2021 for that not November.

but I’m more confused at how you can argue this then say in your next comment whether people take it or not is irrelevant.

and frankly the waves are the only consistent thing. Every time we open up A bit there’s Another wave. These rinks hold 20k. No one is going to allow more than 5000 fans in a building next year. You’re not talking anything resembling normal till 2021-22 season.

now regarding the players and the owners. This isn’t like a lockout where guys play overseas whatever. There are players that are going at that point on almost a year without games. That is going to hurt the product. They need to get on the ice. And then to the interest level. There are fans that haven’t seen their team in a year that is like another major lockout. The league takes a bigger beating in that regard longer term than loss of gate revenue and it ABSOLUTELY killed them when negotiating their last major tv deal. They ended up on Outdoor network for no money. So yes I do think not playing is a killer for this league that desperately needs visibility

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Long article, but I'll share the small Rangers' snippet.

He’s so happy go lucky he let his parents take all his money and plunge him into severe debt!

 

[NYRFAN218]

I’m sorry but I have no idea how you can guesstimate when these pharma companies are going to request emergency use of the vaccines which has nothing to do with athletes or the general public. Most signs point to 2021 for that not November.

but I’m more confused at how you can argue this then say in your next comment whether people take it or not is irrelevant.

and frankly the waves are the only consistent thing. Every time we open up A bit there’s Another wave. These rinks hold 20k. No one is going to allow more than 5000 fans in a building next year. You’re not talking anything resembling normal till 2021-22 season.

now regarding the players and the owners. This isn’t like a lockout where guys play overseas whatever. There are players that are going at that point on almost a year without games. That is going to hurt the product. They need to get on the ice. And then to the interest level. There are fans that haven’t seen their team in a year that is like another major lockout. The league takes a bigger beating in that regard longer term than loss of gate revenue and it ABSOLUTELY killed them when negotiating their last major tv deal. They ended up on Outdoor network for no money. So yes I do think not playing is a killer for this league that desperately needs visibility

I'm not guestimating anything, this is what the companies are saying.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in an open letter on Friday that his company could apply for emergency federal approval of its coronavirus vaccine as soon as late November, noting that the drugmaker expects to have enough data on the treatment's safety and efficacy by then. That marks the first time a vaccine developer has specified when a vaccine might be available.

Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine could be ready by late November

And it's irrelevant because we won't have enough of a supply to cover anyone that wants it for a while let alone the entire population. We're talking well into 2021 by that point which is after next season ends.

The x factor is how long this wave runs and if we do get this vaccine, does it start to make a dent at this thing and cover those higher-risk populations that we can thus open up more? That could change those 0 capacity buildings into those 3-5K capacities which could make a difference.

We're arguing about semantics at this point because canceling the season we both agree is a disaster. I just think whether the season is 60-65 games beginning in December or 48 in February is really irrelevant and won't make a difference in terms of TV deals, interest, or players playing. We're talking a 1-2 month difference in a delay of these guys playing games where a season cancellation would be a much bigger difference in terms of when they last played. The NBA is going through the exact same thing in terms of delaying the start. They've discussed MLK day as the start of their season and it's already being speculated that they will also be a February or even March start. This isn't an NHL exclusive problem in terms of delaying or shortening seasons. Every single league in the US has radically altered their season with the exception of the NFL who is on another planet in terms of TV revenue.

 

[JCProdigy]

completely agree. We’ve never EVER had this level of offensive talent. Not even close ever! A number one center 27 years old, These guys have a franchise goalie behind them. They’re stacked at right D too and have a bunch of talented young LDs coming. This group should win at some point.

On pure offensive talent, you say not even close? I mean I'm excited about the prospects of the present and future but the 71-72, 91-92, and 93-94 Ranger teams were awesomely talented. Damn that 94 team had four HHOFs providing offense! The other two had 3 each.

This is false. Even if there is a cluster, the teams obviously have these guys ranked in some order.

If you think the best player available happened to be a center, okay thats fair. Taking a center that late in the 1st because you MIGHT need one in 2 years is flawed thinking, especially since most players you take in that range won't even be ready for NHL play by then.

In the 19-21 range, of the "center" prospects, all I read about were guys:
A. Likely to be several years away.
B. Many that would have to move to wing at the NHL level
C. Many that had likely 2nd line upside.
D. In the case of Lapierre, huge health question marks.

To me, if the Rangers took a "center" prospect there and then Zbad left in two years, the very high percentage outcome would be them still looking outside the org, at that time, for a suitable top tier first line center to perform in 22-23.

 

[duhmetreE]

Someone asked me to update this when the signings trickle in:

We wont carry 8 D IMO. We could get away with 12 Forwards 6D and Smith. 21 player roster. -Bitetto/Hajek. -PDG. Strome seems fair but who knows. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 1 year 4M. Lemieux seems high for whats been offered/signed this year. He'll be closer to $1M IMO. Look at me, I'm a bean counter. So, that's around $2.5M extra space. Not as bad imo

In the event every single player is hitting the 'big bonuses' ( a good problem ) we can offload Strome, Smith and/or even Buch to become cap compliant. Absolute worst case scenario, we have to add to the $4M dead cap next year... which will still be better than this year.

 

[Alluckks]

well the Rangers’ BPA doesn’t necessarily mean the actual BPA as we very much know.

What does this even mean?

Maybe write them a letter before the draft next time with your glorious gift of hindsight lol

 

[Machinehead]

Replaced Jack Johnson with Jack Johnson

 

[EdJovanovski]

Always take BPA, needs change.
I remember when we thought we were set at center long term when we had Zibanejad & Hayes with Chytil & Andersson coming up. RD was also our greatest positional weakness.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

What does this even mean?

Maybe write them a letter before the draft next time with your glorious gift of hindsight lol

It means their player evaluations are often times terrible and they have a long track record of that, and have really done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt when the get fixated on “their guy” in the draft.

 

[jay from jersey]

The one thing im disappointed in during this draft wasnt the Schneider as a player but that we didn’t pick a center with a first pick because its entirely possible Zibanejad prices himself out of here, i dont see him wanting to leave but if he continues to get the odd concussion we may not wanna spend 8 or 9 mill over 7 for him. Even if that isnt the case we still need another center for the future. I like Schneider, he looks like a player that could turn into a building block...i was just just looking for a center.

Barkov might be signed. If he makes it to UFA he will be a ranger. Take it to the bank. Even at the expense of zibby

 

[smoneil]

well the Rangers’ BPA doesn’t necessarily mean the actual BPA as we very much know.

You can literally say the same about every team in the league. Most teams are lucky to pick the ACTUAL (in retrospect) BPA maybe once or twice per draft (if at all). The only way to really judge the quality of a draft after the fact is to see how many of a team's original picks would, in a re-draft, go higher than they were originally selected. The Rangers have a pretty decent record with that over the last several years.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

You can literally say the same about every team in the league. Most teams are lucky to pick the ACTUAL (in retrospect) BPA maybe once or twice per draft (if at all). The only way to really judge the quality of a draft after the fact is to see how many of a team's original picks would, in a re-draft, go higher than they were originally selected. The Rangers have a pretty decent record with that over the last several years.

Not really. They got the 2nd and 1st overall picks so the job was done for them. The only guy they picked who is a contributor is Chytil but he hasn’t been exactly a home run.

Even after all this rebuilding the team still hasn’t shown it can draft and develop well. The best homegrown skater we have is Kreider and he was drafted 11 years ago.

 

[Alluckks]

It means their player evaluations are often times terrible and they have a long track record of that, and have really done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt when the get fixated on “their guy” in the draft.

Yeah, you're right, their recent late 1st round picks of K'Andre Miller, Filip Chytil, and Nils Lundkvist have really sucked.

 

[smoneil]

It means their player evaluations are often times terrible and they have a long track record of that, and have really done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt when the get fixated on “their guy” in the draft.

The problem is that just isn't really true. Putting aside the last two drafts (because way too soon to evaluate there, though several players look like probably risers in their D+1), the Rangers have:

2018: Miller, Lundkvist, and Keane who would all definitely go higher in a re-draft.
2017: Chytil and Barron who would def go higher
2016: Reunanen, Wall, and Gettinger would go higher (no 1st or 2nd rounder this year)

Yeah, you have a couple of definite fallers in Lias and Day, but on the whole, the team has done pretty damn well relative to their draft position over the last five years.