I feel like I’ll get blowback on this, but again, I feel this is the time you start making tough decisions on the actual shape of the roster. We want to keep and slot everyone in, but with the unexpected additions of Kakko and Lafreniere, that’s most likely not feasible. Things got more crowded. We now know what our weaknesses are. We can take a more targeted approach.
Kravstov, for instance... is he going to be as good as Buch? Do we trust that he’ll adjust to NA and reach that potential? Is his value still high as a prospect and potential trade chip?
Chytil... is he going to get a shake at center? Will it be 3C all year with Strome glued to Panarin? Can he ever really breakout as a 3C? Is he even viewed as a center or is his future here on the wing? Do we have room on the wings if that’s the case?
DeAngelo, can we convince other GMs that he’s beyond his earlier faux pas and get full value for what he actually brings if we decide to shop him, or is he viewed as damaged goods despite his performance this season and would we be fielding low ball offers? What kind of extension is it gonna take to keep him and are we ready to commit to 3 RD or do we want to shop him for balance elsewhere? Similar conversation regarding Buch and value to us versus what GMs would offer and whether or not someone internally can fill his spot.
You look at all of these questions, you have the #22 pick, you aggressively work the phones... rather than moving up in the draft, could:
#22 + Strome +
#22 + DeAngelo +
Chytil/Krav/Buch/Howden/Georgie/Hajek
Land us something like a legitimate 23-28 year old 2C or 2LD plus a good 4th line PK guy (preferably center)?
Is it a lot to give up? Absolutely. I’m not saying the package would have to be that big. It all depends on what you actually discover when you start making calls and what decisions you make on some of these guys regarding the shape this roster is going to take. If you could add a legit 26 year old 2C and a veteran middle pair LD on decent contracts or a solid top pair LD and a 3C with grit for that type of package would it make the team better while leaving enough still in the pipes to have depth? I think so.
Panarin - Kreider - Lafreniere - Lemieux/Barron
Kakko - Buchnevich - Chytil/Kravstov - Gauthier
If Strome, one of Buch/Chyt/Krav and that 1st allowed you to acquire a significant upgrade on Strome and either a bottom six depth C of quality or a middle pair LD of quality, it would make the team better without taking a large hit to the wing depth.
Personally, aside from #1OA, I’m not interested in adding more futures. I think we need to make a shopping list from:
Georgiev
DeAngelo maybe
Strome maybe
One of Chytil/Krav/Buch
Howden
Hajek
Rykov
Jones
#22
And see what could be shaken free that addresses the areas the team obviously needs to improve. To me, Strome is fine for now and can still have value (depending on his contract) if he is shifted to 3C or the wing but isn’t a 2C I’m comfortable going to war with when the window opens. That makes a top six C one priority. We have a lot of defensive prospects coming who can make an impact and potentially be very, very good but, likewise, I’d rather a rookie Miller be an over achiever who we can shelter on the third pair (as opposed to just penciling him as a top four solution immediately) and who can step up if we get hit with injuries or poor play, than have to take big minutes by default when we’re ready to go to war, so that makes a top 4 LD another obvious priority. After that it’s just about finding a balance of tenacity and PK and energy for the bottom six.
I’m willing to ship off “high value” packages to shake the right pieces into our laps.
I posted this earlier. It has a lot to do with who you keep, what role they'll play and who you replace and how you replace them.
We assume we're keeping Panarin/Kreider/Lafreniere
We assume we're keeping Zibanejad, Chytil
We assume we're keeping Kakko
We assume we're keeping Trouba, Fox, Lindgren, Miller
We assume we're keeping Shesterkin
Keeping but could be move, Lemiuex, Strome, Buchnevich, Howden, Gauthier, Kravtsov, Deangelo, Lundkvist, Georgiev
X Factor - Fast
One example of how you might replace a player is analyzing the loss of Fast. How do you replace him? What are you replacing? His 12 goals and 17 assists shouldn't be too hard to replace.
Our top 4 penalty killers last season were Fast, Strome, Zibanejad, and Howden. Their PPGA/60 were respectively (9.23, 6.89, 8.83, 9.39)
If we lose Fast to UFA, we will need to replace his ice time but we can certainly improve on those poor PPGA/60 numbers. If Barron was a lock, he'd be a serious contender for that ice time but since he isn't we should plan for that.
We ranked 23rd in PK this season at 77.4% so I think you can make a case for improving our PK team as well. Among our top PK defensemen, Trouba/Skjei actually had a worse PPGA/60 (10.28/8.3) than Smith/Staal (7.49/7.19). Lindgren was the best at 6.95
For comparison, SJS had the best PK last season
Their best 4 PPGA/60 were Burns (3.81), Vlasic (4.59), Dillon (5.51), and Karlsson (6.24)
Forwards PPGA/60 were Kane (2.07), Goodrow (4.75), Couture (4.78), Sorensen (5.55), M.Karlsson (5.55)
But they finished 3rd to last in the league. But then again Boston finished 3rd in PK and they were first in the league.
And maybe it was all Ruff's fault and Martin will fix our numbers good. Pittsburgh's PK ranked 10th in the league.